Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[blueiris]

Hi KM,

If we (Essendon) happen to bid on some of these academy players with pick 19, will our pick 19 have to be matched with first round pick or second?

TIA

It's an end of first round pick so second round

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,

If we (Essendon) happen to bid on some of these academy players with pick 19, will our pick 19 have to be matched with first round pick or second?

TIA

Same system as father son.

The club need to use their next available pick (say Brisbane with Hammelmann) if Essendon were to bid on him Brisbane would need to use their second round pick to second him.

 

[kickit2Carlise]

Thanks km what about players like Caleb Daniels and Switkowski or rainbow and butler, Goodyear too in your opinion are they late rounders

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks km what about players like Caleb Daniels and Switkowski or rainbow and butler, Goodyear too in your opinion are they late rounders

Caleb Daniel as a rookie I like. Good ball user/decision maker/decision maker under pressure and has good vision. He's got something that can be worked with.

Switkowski can find the footy but looks more like a state leaguer than AFL footballer. Just lacking that something.

Rainbow mid-late draft I like. Very draftable with his footskills particularly impressive.

Butler has real pace and can really take the game on. Similar to Rainbow like him and late draft could be a good get.

Goodyear has can win it and has some power and explosion to him. Would like to see him get his hands on it more though. Late/rookie chance.

 

[kickit2Carlise]

Yeah I'm a fan of Daniels just a real goer who can be very dangerous I think he's worth a shot . He is on the short side but if you have the tools he should get a look in . Thanks mate

 

[james_harrisss]

KM, how are you rating Jack Cripps from east fremantle, had a look at his game on the weekend a big man that can gather that much, must be fair bit talked out him?

 

[dajesmac]

Could Laverde go top 4-5?

 

[LemmingMaster]

Could Laverde go top 4-5?

Would not be the most insane thing I've seen.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, how are you rating Jack Cripps from east fremantle, had a look at his game on the weekend a big man that can gather that much, must be fair bit talked out him?

Cripps had his best game of the season so I imagine that's where your enthusiasm for him is stemming from.

He's in my view the second best tall from WA (behind Keitel) at this stage. Some prefer Bevan to Cripps. I just like what Cripps does more as a tall at that height who can really find the footy up the field.

Mid draft is probably when he'll start getting spoken about as an option but that can always change with continued strong play.

Could Laverde go top 4-5?

Plausible this far out. He's got talent and I like him a lot. He's mostly seen as a 10-20 guy at this point. Still time for him to rise up draft boards. It's happened before and will happen again.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Hey Knighta,

With the bottom 4 teams all on 4 wins and movement between the sides a strong possibility do you see the top end of the draftees being selected changing? I know you are a best avail guy but with the talk of evenness between the top 2-3 do you see any of those bottom sides going needs? For example if Stk or Bris finishing last them selecting McCartin or GWS picking Petracca if they get first pick? Roos loving big mids going Petracca or Brayshaw?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knighta,

With the bottom 4 teams all on 4 wins and movement between the sides a strong possibility do you see the top end of the draftees being selected changing? I know you are a best avail guy but with the talk of evenness between the top 2-3 do you see any of those bottom sides going needs? For example if Stk or Bris finishing last them selecting McCartin or GWS picking Petracca if they get first pick? Roos loving big mids going Petracca or Brayshaw?

It's mostly seen as McCartin and Petracca as the top two on most draft boards. Wright that likely 3rd for most. Brayshaw would likely be around 4th on draft boards I'd imagine.

If I had to guess what the draft boards of the bottom four look like (and all it is, is an educated guess):
Bris: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
St.K: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
GWS: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw
Melb: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw

 

[TheLastEmperor]

It's mostly seen as McCartin and Petracca as the top two on most draft boards. Wright that likely 3rd for most. Brayshaw would likely be around 4th on draft boards I'd imagine.

If I had to guess what the draft boards of the bottom four look like (and all it is, is an educated guess):
Bris: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
St.K: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
GWS: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw
Melb: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw

Cheers. It's a bit strange not having a clear pick 1 even know we are a way out from the draft and that may change. I recall the last few years this far out from the draft and irrelevant of which club had the first pick it was a unanimous decision on who was the best player in the draft. This year it's hard to split McCartin and Petracca and as you posted it may depend on who finishes bottom 2.

Do you see any bolters like Bontimpelli or Macrae moving into top 5 calculations?

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers. It's a bit strange not having a clear pick 1 even know we are a way out from the draft and that may change. I recall the last few years this far out from the draft and irrelevant of which club had the first pick it was a unanimous decision on who was the best player in the draft. This year it's hard to split McCartin and Petracca and as you posted it may depend on who finishes bottom 2.

Do you see any bolters like Bontimpelli or Macrae moving into top 5 calculations?

It can happen.

Maybe an Ahern. Maybe a Laverde.

I expect Lever not that he's playing to go higher than he's generally been spoken about. There could be a few clubs with him even not playing this year seeing him as a top 4 pick given his strong play last year.

 

[Skippos]

Yeah he shot me a message about it too. Apparently last Thursday out at the Cannons they did some new measurements. I'm trying to get a little more but I'm inclined to believe him purely because I have too much faith in the human race to think that someone would waste their time signing up to an internet forum just to lie about a kid's height and weight.

Following up on this.

Received this message from the bloke who posted about Jake being 194/89

'I bread him bud !!he has another brother coming through in the Barry Davis sqaud at the cannons at 15 years old better skilled than jake left footer also we r no relation to jay lever we r very excited going through all this thanks bud'

this claims that Jake and Jay are cousins but it's a pretty unnecessary tidbit to include so I'm not sure. I'm assuming by bread he means 'bred' and that he's Jake's father? Nonetheless thought it should be posted.

Edit 24/7/14: Checked it all on twitter

 

[Knightmare]

Jay and Jake are cousins.

AFL.com.au's end of year measurements will tell us Jake's height and weight.

Conclusions will be made then and only then.

 

[blueiris]

It's mostly seen as McCartin and Petracca as the top two on most draft boards. Wright that likely 3rd for most. Brayshaw would likely be around 4th on draft boards I'd imagine.

If I had to guess what the draft boards of the bottom four look like (and all it is, is an educated guess):
Bris: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
St.K: McCartin, Petracca, Wright, Brayshaw
GWS: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw
Melb: Petracca, McCartin, Wright, Brayshaw

So you have Brisbane finishing last and picking McCartin do you see him as a top 5 forward in the next ten years.

 

[SizeMatters]

KM what's your thoughts on McCartin and his skin folds? From some footage I have seen he doesn't look like he has a great build. I am having thoughts that he may end up like Fev did in his last season at Brisbane. I hope it won't be the case.

 

[scooter600x]

Following up on this.

Received this message from the bloke who posted about Jake being 194/89

'I bread him bud !!he has another brother coming through in the Barry Davis sqaud at the cannons at 15 years old better skilled than jake left footer also we r no relation to jay lever we r very excited going through all this thanks bud'

this claims that Jake and Jay are cousins but it's a pretty unnecessary tidbit to include so I'm not sure. I'm assuming by bread he means 'bred' and that he's Jake's father? Nonetheless thought it should be posted.

Sounds like Jake's father is 14.

 

[SizeMatters]

he bread him... sounds legit.

 

[Rivanwarder]

KM what's your thoughts on McCartin and his skin folds? From some footage I have seen he doesn't look like he has a great build. I am having thoughts that he may end up like Fev did in his last season at Brisbane. I hope it won't be the case.

What is this meant to mean? Fev kicked 48 goals in 17 games...Hardly a terrible return considering his off field issues.

 

[Coathanger]

he bread him... sounds legit.

Maybe his Dad works at Brumby's?

 

[Knightmare]

So you have Brisbane finishing last and picking McCartin do you see him as a top 5 forward in the next ten years.

With all those bottom four teams doing unpredictable things every week I'm not even going to guess who finishes bottom.

The Saints beating Fremantle? Really?

And GWS almost knocking Geelong off and Melbourne almost knocking Port Adelaide off? Stop it.

I like the bottom sides are playing to win games of footy. I feel Wright is the best of the lot so I wouldn't be so concerned if I finished with pick 1 or 3 so I'd much rather see my team play with a competitive edge and build some confidence going into the next season and see a winning culture form, rather than a push to tank which just keeps teams endlessly going in circles.

Who finishes bottom? I'm not even going to guess but one of St Kilda and Brisbane in whatever order would be my best guess without going through the ladder predictor.

I don't see McCartin a top 5 key forward. Top 10, sure. But for me not top 5.
Jeremy Cameron is my number one. Patton and Boyd may as well be split for 2nd. Patton moves a little better but Boyd is slightly bigger again so I'm liking both equally.
After that it's so up in the air.
As established key forwards Franklin, Roughead, Cloke, Hawkins, J.Kennedy, T.Walker, J.Riewoldt are all better until they're not.
Wright and Daniher if both stay healthy and are developed as forwards I like more also.
McCartin and Hogan I have in that group after Wright and Daniher.

Any of those guys I've listed you'd love as number one options for your team in your front half long term.

KM what's your thoughts on McCartin and his skin folds? From some footage I have seen he doesn't look like he has a great build. I am having thoughts that he may end up like Fev did in his last season at Brisbane. I hope it won't be the case.

Fevola was good. I'd hardly be concerned if he became Fevola without the off-field issues.

McCartin I imagine does have high skinfolds looking at him and it is a little bit curious as everything I hear is he's a professional in his approach to his game and has a strong attention to detail relating to his diet - perhaps I understand wrong?

In any case the guy can play and high skinfolds or not whether that changes at AFL level you generally assume so given it does with most, but either way it's not stopping him become a very good key forward.

 

[Yoda_]

Any mature aged (19y.o +) guys sneaking into the later rounds of your draft Knight?

I'll throw some names out. Haiden Schloithe, Josh Glenn, Nick Rippon, Sam Tagliabue, Ben Cavarra, Shannon Taylor all ones to keep an eye out for.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I'd be very shocked to see Taylor drafted.

 

[Knightmare]

Any mature aged (19y.o +) guys sneaking into the later rounds of your draft Knight?

I'll throw some names out. Haiden Schloithe, Josh Glenn, Nick Rippon, Sam Tagliabue, Ben Cavarra, Shannon Taylor all ones to keep an eye out for.

Plenty of 19+ year olds I like.

Haiden Schloithe I've always liked and I'd be happy for him to receive another opportunity.

Josh Glenn of those you mention will be in my next power rankings update.

Jack Steele from NSW I also really feel strongly about (part of GWS academy).

Dane Howe as another overager from the TAC likely gets picked.

Darcy Cameron who has played ruck in the WAFL I wouldn't be opposed to seeing given a shot.

Tyler Cornish through the midfield in QLD may get looked at.

Josh McGuinness from Tassie I have as my highest rated Tassie prospect as a really nice tall rebounding backman who can develop.

Erin Wasley-Black from NT can play and do some damage.

Josh Miller from SA as a ruck/forward has some scope to develop.

Francis Watson from WA can do some damage.

Cameron Loersch from WA as a fwd/ruck.

Nathan Drummond from the TAC along with Zach Ballard, Liam Hunt and Hugh Beasley.

There are plenty of options.

Shannon Taylor I'm not so enthusiastic about. Still hasn't done anything and needs some big games before he's a serious prospect. Another year in the VFL needed for me.