Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

I was just wondering now that we're closer to draft time, where you see Hopper and Kennedy at, and whether u still think they'll go at 8+10?

It appears that these two guys actually might impact on how the Treloar trade could be done. That being the points GWS need to get them, and what picks they'll have to use to get them - and what picks are then available to them to draft a top player.

It's quite possible that GWS could end up with these two guys, plus a top 10 draft pick, but that top 10 pick could turn to a 2nd round pick depending where Hopper and Kennedy are bid at.

This could in turn change what GWS would prefer for Treloar.

Hopper I feel strongly is the best midfielder in the draft. I'm even toying with putting him in my power rankings at 1 or 2. His inside game is without equal this year with his stoppage work and contested ball winning ability. In terms of a club bidding, I'd anticipate a club in the 3-5 range put a bid on Hopper.

Kennedy having not played in some time is less clear. He probably receives a bid around 10 based on the strength of performance, impact and the improvement and potential shown during the first half of the season.

GWS would under the AFL's formula still receive a discount, and it would mean a combination of picks will need to be used at this stage.

GWS in addition to Hopper and Kennedy also have Himmelberg, Cornell and Flynn who are if not bid on likely to be selected in the national draft. So GWS through the academy this year have a big opportunity to add several further young talents to the list.

 

[foj1]

Hopper I feel strongly is the best midfielder in the draft. I'm even toying with putting him in my power rankings at 1 or 2. His inside game is without equal this year with his stoppage work and contested ball winning ability. In terms of a club bidding, I'd anticipate a club in the 3-5 range put a bid on Hopper.

Kennedy having not played in some time is less clear. He probably receives a bid around 10 based on the strength of performance, impact and the improvement and potential shown during the first half of the season.

GWS would under the AFL's formula still receive a discount, and it would mean a combination of picks will need to be used at this stage.

GWS in addition to Hopper and Kennedy also have Himmelberg, Cornell and Flynn who are if not bid on likely to be selected in the national draft. So GWS through the academy this year have a big opportunity to add several further young talents to the list.

Hopper is Lenny Hayes and is the sure thing of this draft. Only injuries will stop him being a very good afl midfielder.

 

[Collingwood42]

Hopper I feel strongly is the best midfielder in the draft. I'm even toying with putting him in my power rankings at 1 or 2. His inside game is without equal this year with his stoppage work and contested ball winning ability. In terms of a club bidding, I'd anticipate a club in the 3-5 range put a bid on Hopper.

Kennedy having not played in some time is less clear. He probably receives a bid around 10 based on the strength of performance, impact and the improvement and potential shown during the first half of the season.

GWS would under the AFL's formula still receive a discount, and it would mean a combination of picks will need to be used at this stage.

GWS in addition to Hopper and Kennedy also have Himmelberg, Cornell and Flynn who are if not bid on likely to be selected in the national draft. So GWS through the academy this year have a big opportunity to add several further young talents to the list.

Cheers mate. With the new points system, it's going to make for a very interesting trade period.

Depending what picks Kennedy and Hopper are bid at, it can potentionally change the way GWS will want to trade.

*note this doesn't take into consideration any compensation picks that could be given.

If Hopper and Kennedy are bid at say 3 and 10, then GWS should manage to keep their original pick 8 to use in the draft, or trade, and use later picks to draft Kennedy. (This is in the event that we trade them pick 7). Other GWS academy players don't seem to be rated too high so I've left them out of this as they shouldn't impact points much, it at all.

But if Kennedy is bid at say, 7 or lower, then GWS would have to use their first round pick 8 to get him. Meaning there wouldn't be as much pull to demand our first round pick 7 this year, because their first pick in the draft would be after the points are deducted from pick 8, and would most likely be a 2nd round pick, and quite possibly a pick we could trade to them.

If this is the case, then maybe they could be talked into us trading 2nd round picks this year, plus a 1st round from next year for Treloar, as they would be only looking at points needed to draft those two.

Then we can keep our first pick this year for the draft.

Here's an example:

Hopper bid at pick 3 -- 2234 points
minus 20% discount -- 1787 points

If we traded our first round pick 7 to them as part of the Treloar trade, then that pick is used first to get Hopper.

Pick 7 value -- 1644 points
Hopper -- 1787 points

So 143 points owed is carried over to their next pick, pick 8.

Pick 8 value -- 1551 points
Minus 143 --- 1408 points

Their pick 8 now becomes pick 9, as its points value is now less.

This is where things can become very interesting...

If Kennedy is bid at pick 10.

Pick 10 value -- 1395 points
Minus 20% discount -- 1116 points

Since Kennedy is valued at 1116 points, and their pick 9 is worth more (1408 points), then they can keep that pick and use their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to draft him.

But if Kennedy is bid at pick 5.

Pick 5 value -- 1878 points
Minus 20% discount -- 1502 points

In this scenario, GWS would have to use their pick 9 to get Kennedy.

Their pick 9 value -- 1408 points
Kennedy -- 1502 points

94 owed points are carried over to their next pick, let's say it's their original pick 26 which is valued at 729 points.

Pick 26 value -- 729 points
Minus 94 -- 635 points

Their pick 26 now becomes pick 30 which they can use in the draft.

If this was what they had to do, Collingwood would surely try to keep their 1st round pick for the draft and offer up picks we could get for Seedsman, Freeman, our 2nd round pick etc. to give GWS the points required to get Hopper, Kennedy, and still be in a similar position where they have a 2nd round to use in the draft if they want.

It would be a much better option for us, and wouldn't make much of a difference to GWS.

In any case, it sounds like Kennedy has been injured or something if he hasn't played much lately, so the chance of him being bid at so early like pick 5 is little, but u never know.

I get the feeling that there's two stand out key players in this draft but do u think Hopper has a chance of being bid at by Brisbane or Carlton at picks 1 or 2? And if either do get compensation picks for FA, that could totally throw a spanner in the works too.

Hope it all makes sense lol does to me anyways haha
Going to be a cracker of a trade period!

 

[Knightmare]

I get the feeling that there's two stand out key players in this draft but do u think Hopper has a chance of being bid at by Brisbane or Carlton at picks 1 or 2? And if either do get compensation picks for FA, that could totally throw a spanner in the works too.

Hope it all makes sense lol does to me anyways haha
Going to be a cracker of a trade period!

I can't see either of Brisbane or Carlton bidding on Hopper. Hopper isn't rated that highly by recruiters as far as I'm aware and secondly Brisbane and Carlton while Carlton could be argued as needing a midfielder most, the reality is that both want key position players and Schache and Weitering in whatever order.

It's going to be an active trade period, and with more players every year wanting out that movement is only with each season over time going to get more crazy with more trades sure to get completed.

 

[Collingwood42]

I can't see either of Brisbane or Carlton bidding on Hopper. Hopper isn't rated that highly by recruiters as far as I'm aware and secondly Brisbane and Carlton while Carlton could be argued as needing a midfielder most, the reality is that both want key position players and Schache and Weitering in whatever order.

It's going to be an active trade period, and with more players every year wanting out that movement is only with each season over time going to get more crazy with more trades sure to get completed.

Yeah, I can't see it happening either. Well fingers crossed that Hopper and Kennedy are both drafted well into the top 10. Would definitely benefit Collingwood the higher they both go, costing more to GWS, and giving us more bargaining power.

 

[Apex Predators]

Yeah, I can't see it happening either. Well fingers crossed that Hopper and Kennedy are both drafted well into the top 10. Would definitely benefit Collingwood the higher they both go, costing more to GWS, and giving us more bargaining power.

How does the bids that might be put on Hopper and Kennedy help your bargaining power for treloar, won't the trade period be well and truly finished before anyone even starts thinking about the draft period. Therefore the treloar deal will be done well before the bids for hopper and Kennedy are known and the bids are irrelevant. GWS are better off just trading for fair value.

On top of that, GWS will be thinking about the value of the Curtley Hampton trade and potentially whatever kitchen sink the Dockers are prepared to throw at Cam McCarthy. Other trades would change the points variables again.

so what you have put forward is just a red herring

 

[Collingwood42]

How does the bids that might be put on Hopper and Kennedy help your bargaining power for treloar, won't the trade period be well and truly finished before anyone even starts thinking about the draft period. Therefore the treloar deal will be done well before the bids for hopper and Kennedy are known and the bids are irrelevant. GWS are better off just trading for fair value.

On top of that, GWS will be thinking about the value of the Curtley Hampton trade and potentially whatever kitchen sink the Dockers are prepared to throw at Cam McCarthy. Other trades would change the points variables again.

so what you have put forward is just a red herring

A red herring?

My understanding is that the f/s and academy bidding is done before the trade period, just as the f/s was done last year.

That is the whole point to what I was saying. Before trade week starts, we will know what is required by GWS to draft Hopper and Kennedy, and whether they will have to use their first round pick (in addition to ours in the Treloar trade).

If they don't, then they will no doubt demand our pick 7 so they can utilise a top 10 pick in the draft as well as getting Hopper and Kennedy.

But if they have to use their first pick, and their first live draft pick won't happen until round 2, then it would be far better for us to give GWS a few second round picks tallying as much as our pick 7 is valued at, because points is what they will need in that situation.

GWS has 2 very highly rated academy players available, plus 3 others not so highly rated. They are required to make at least 3 draft picks. With such a shallow draft, they might only draft 1 or two others on top of Hopper and Kennedy.

Who knows, they might ask for a future draft pick for Hampton, or a player if that works better for them.

Same could be said for the Treloar trade. It might work out better for GWS if we traded them a few 2nd rounders from 2015 and then our 2016 first rounder rather than this years 1st rounder and a bit less than our 1st rounder next year.

 

[L Dizz]

A red herring?

My understanding is that the f/s and academy bidding is done before the trade period, just as the f/s was done last year.

That is the whole point to what I was saying. Before trade week starts, we will know what is required by GWS to draft Hopper and Kennedy, and whether they will have to use their first round pick (in addition to ours in the Treloar trade).

If they don't, then they will no doubt demand our pick 7 so they can utilise a top 10 pick in the draft as well as getting Hopper and Kennedy.

But if they have to use their first pick, and their first live draft pick won't happen until round 2, then it would be far better for us to give GWS a few second round picks tallying as much as our pick 7 is valued at, because points is what they will need in that situation.

GWS has 2 very highly rated academy players available, plus 3 others not so highly rated. They are required to make at least 3 draft picks. With such a shallow draft, they might only draft 1 or two others on top of Hopper and Kennedy.

Who knows, they might ask for a future draft pick for Hampton, or a player if that works better for them.

Same could be said for the Treloar trade. It might work out better for GWS if we traded them a few 2nd rounders from 2015 and then our 2016 first rounder rather than this years 1st rounder and a bit less than our 1st rounder next year.

Your theory, as well thought out as it is, falls apart because bidding for academy players and father/sons is now done on draft night, not prior to trade week as you thought. It's been very well publicised.

Their first pick (yours) will be used on Hopper, their second pick (their own first rounder) will be used on whoever they want and a combination of the second rounder, third rounder, whatever they get for Hampton (I haven't done the maths) will likely allow them to get Kennedy, providing no one bids on him until after pick 8 (or 9 if it gets shuffled back as per your earlier example). There's the 3 picks they need to take all used on top 10-12 ranked players. And they'll probably have some later picks if they need to make more selections/rookie upgrades.

Long story short, they'll be wanting this year's first round pick (plus more) for Treloar.

 

[typewriter]

You forget 1 name - Himmelberg - highly rated by some, and on some people's values could go as high end of 1st round/early 2nd round (I don't think McCarthy will leave this year, but he has shown he is willing to when his contract is up) and he could be the perfect replacement.
You also need to understand, recruiters also look ahead and gws have a number of possible top10 academy players next year, so future 1st rounders will be looked at seriously to be able to nab them all, with their expected rise up the ladder, future picks is their insurance policy.

Sent from my SM-T330 using Tapatalk

 

[Collingwood42]

Your theory, as well thought out as it is, falls apart because bidding for academy players and father/sons is now done on draft night, not prior to trade week as you thought. It's been very well publicised.

Their first pick (yours) will be used on Hopper, their second pick (their own first rounder) will be used on whoever they want and a combination of the second rounder, third rounder, whatever they get for Hampton (I haven't done the maths) will likely allow them to get Kennedy, providing no one bids on him until after pick 8 (or 9 if it gets shuffled back as per your earlier example). There's the 3 picks they need to take all used on top 10-12 ranked players. And they'll probably have some later picks if they need to make more selections/rookie upgrades.

Long story short, they'll be wanting this year's first round pick (plus more) for Treloar.

Arghh! Well that sux! Cheers for letting me know about that though. Yeah, so looks like it'll definitely be our 2015 first, plus

 

[Apex Predators]

Your theory, as well thought out as it is, falls apart because bidding for academy players and father/sons is now done on draft night, not prior to trade week as you thought. It's been very well publicised.

Their first pick (yours) will be used on Hopper, their second pick (their own first rounder) will be used on whoever they want and a combination of the second rounder, third rounder, whatever they get for Hampton (I haven't done the maths) will likely allow them to get Kennedy, providing no one bids on him until after pick 8 (or 9 if it gets shuffled back as per your earlier example). There's the 3 picks they need to take all used on top 10-12 ranked players. And they'll probably have some later picks if they need to make more selections/rookie upgrades.

Long story short, they'll be wanting this year's first round pick (plus more) for Treloar.

That is my understanding as well, but with one of exception being that they are aiming for it being live on the night this year. My understanding is that they are still working out how it would work and if they haven't got all the wrinkles worked out they would do f/s and academy bidding before the draft, probably the day before. I am really looking forward to see how it plays out, and in my view GWS would be looking to maximise their points value in the trade period with so many potential academy players coming through. A live pick in the top ten plus hopper and Kennedy will be a massive get for them.

 

[x_les_x]

Hey KM, I've pretty much conceded port won't have another first round pick this year. Ken has pressed for true big bodied inside mids as a need. Given our second pick would be pick 25ish who would be available here? Oliver I feel that he could jump a bit and we'll just miss. The fan fare on partington has gone a bit cold would he be around there aswell or a bit earlier too? thanks

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, I've pretty much conceded port won't have another first round pick this year. Ken has pressed for true big bodied inside mids as a need. Given our second pick would be pick 25ish who would be available here? Oliver I feel that he could jump a bit and we'll just miss. The fan fare on partington has gone a bit cold would he be around there aswell or a bit earlier too? thanks

Oliver would be a great get in the second round if there. And it's possible he may be, and he would be that optimal inside mid at that point for me. He may still rise up draft boards, but certainly one to be aware of for Port Adelaide if he is still available.

Ryan Clarke with his running ability I also like as a fit for Port Adelaide, and he is definitely an able inside player as someone with a good inside/outside balance. Luke Partington similarly like Clarke is also very good through the midfield and would make sense if available around that point.

In posing Clarke and Partington as alternatives. Oliver would be my first and Clarke my second preference in Port Adelaide's position in the second round.

 

[andrew_]

If Carlton was to receive Geelong's first rounder this trade period, who do you see them choosing?

Same goes for Richmond's?

 

[Knightmare]

If Carlton was to receive Geelong's first rounder this trade period, who do you see them choosing?

Same goes for Richmond's?

With Geelong or Richmond's first round selections I could see a Sam Weideman, Kieran Collins or Harry McKay selected as key position players. And likely with both picks much the same names will be considered. Charlie Curnow may be a consideration. That 9-14 range isn't great for midfielders but maybe a Clayton Oliver could be taken earlier than expected.

Without knowing who Carlton are looking at, from a needs standpoint any of these would make sense.

 

[Howard Moon]

hi KM

could you give me a quick rundown on Nick O'Kearney?

strengths and weaknesses? plays like?

i hear hes a bit of a jack of all trades, does he have an outstanding trait or ability?

cheers

 

[Turbocat]

With Geelong or Richmond's first round selections I could see a Sam Weideman, Kieran Collins or Harry McKay selected as key position players. And likely with both picks much the same names will be considered. Charlie Curnow may be a consideration. That 9-14 range isn't great for midfielders but maybe a Clayton Oliver could be taken earlier than expected.

Without knowing who Carlton are looking at, from a needs standpoint any of these would make sense.

Knightmare .... I have not gone thru this thread for info on him.. so excuse me if you have already answered it.... Sam Weideman... big difference in your rating of him and where you have him being drafted?... Dont rate him?

I have started to think the same for our R1...especially if we trade Walker..

 

[nickrebellious]

Hi Knightmare, love your work. I'm of the opinion the Hawks will only take two live picks into the draft this year probably around 25-45. What type of players do you think the Hawks would be after? Taking into account kicking skills and versatility. We'll definetly need to rookie or trade in a depth ruckman as well.

 

[Yoda_]

Single easiest way to stop academy "rotting" is to only allow one academy player and one f/s prospect or perhaps making top end talents ineligible if/when they are selected in a certain criteria (AFL Academy, All Aus honours perhaps).

I don't know. I'm getting pretty sick of all this talk of these academies.
Why don't we just exclude the northern states from the national draft if they want these academies they pour so much money into? Would see some undeveloped kids in the AFL but the way things are trending will see them picking AFL quality players every year.

Forgive my ramblings but I'm done

 

[Yoda_]

Did you happen to catch the TAC Cup finals over the weekend? The Dandy game by any chance?

Wondering if the BOG display by Dan Capiron has changed your opinion (for the better)?

A couple of stingrays team mates think he could play round 1 next year

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Single easiest way to stop academy "rotting" is to only allow one academy player and one f/s prospect or perhaps making top end talents ineligible if/when they are selected in a certain criteria (AFL Academy, All Aus honours perhaps).

I don't know. I'm getting pretty sick of all this talk of these academies.
Why don't we just exclude the northern states from the national draft if they want these academies they pour so much money into? Would see some undeveloped kids in the AFL but the way things are trending will see them picking AFL quality players every year.

Forgive my ramblings but I'm done

It would be an advantage in the long run, would create football factories

 

[Knightmare]

hi KM

could you give me a quick rundown on Nick O'Kearney?

strengths and weaknesses? plays like?

i hear hes a bit of a jack of all trades, does he have an outstanding trait or ability?

cheers

Jack of all trades, master of none you could say for a quick summary.

He has good endurance and can find the footy but lacks an x-factor. Not overly quick. Skills ok without being great. An able but not dominant contested ball winner.

So that's the sort of thing you're looking at.

Top of mind thinking of a player he is similar to. Maybe he can be something like Kane Lambrt.

Knightmare .... I have not gone thru this thread for info on him.. so excuse me if you have already answered it.... Sam Weideman... big difference in your rating of him and where you have him being drafted?... Dont rate him?

I have started to think the same for our R1...especially if we trade Walker..

I don't rate Weideman as highly at least as the media speculate he goes. I see Weideman as an ok second round standard key forward, but he is certainly not someone I would be comfortable selecting inside the first round, as someone who I see as maybe but not certainly making it, and if indeed he does make it, I see him as a lower level rather than star key forward.

Weideman has nice height/size and is strong enough without being outstanding overhead.

I see his production as being mild through the TAC Cup. Endurance poor. I'm struggling for a genuine point of difference that makes him stand out. In fact in the Eastern front half medium sizer Hardwick was their best forward 50 target this season (including when Weideman was playing in the same team). Also in a few games I found Weideman's ability to read the drop of the ball to be poor - just elevating for a mark only to struggle to get a hand on it.

Hi Knightmare, love your work. I'm of the opinion the Hawks will only take two live picks into the draft this year probably around 25-45. What type of players do you think the Hawks would be after? Taking into account kicking skills and versatility. We'll definetly need to rookie or trade in a depth ruckman as well.

Hawthorn tend to pick the best available talents and address needs through free agency/trade week where possible so I anticipate a similar approach again this offseason if possible. And given where Hawthorn are selecting it is anyones guess as to who may be considered.

Hawthorn may decide that next season is the final opportunity to win a premiership and go after some mature age recruits who can have a more immediate impact. Michael Hartley may be one name to watch for as a key defender. Mitch Brown may be considered (ex Geelong).

With Hawthorn's first pick if retained I could see Ryan Clarke and Luke Partington receiving consideration as midfielders who can find the footy in bunches and offer good immediate games and offer strong value late first round. Wayne Milera if there may also be a consideration. Kieran Lovell if Hawthorn don't mind adding a small. Mitchell Hibberd as a taller type with footskills is someone many will look at as a Hawthorn type.

Second round maybe a James Parsons, Mason Redman or Stephen Tahana as some who may fall around Hawthorn's second round selection just to give you some names to watch for.

As a depth ruckman. Darcy Cameron as a rookie would be a suitable list addition or otherwise there will be plenty available on the trade market with Scott Lycett one example of an excellent ruckman who has not received regular senior opportunities this season and is plainly underutilised as a seriously good young ruckman.

 

[Knightmare]

Single easiest way to stop academy "rotting" is to only allow one academy player and one f/s prospect or perhaps making top end talents ineligible if/when they are selected in a certain criteria (AFL Academy, All Aus honours perhaps).

I don't know. I'm getting pretty sick of all this talk of these academies.
Why don't we just exclude the northern states from the national draft if they want these academies they pour so much money into? Would see some undeveloped kids in the AFL but the way things are trending will see them picking AFL quality players every year.

Forgive my ramblings but I'm done

I agree with you that the current system if flawed.

I'm on the side of giving GWS/Syd/Bris/GC no picks and allowing them to freely add from their academies. It forces the clubs to be even more efficient in producing talent through their academies and really puts the onus on them to identify and develop their own talent. And if they so wish they can always trade players to move into the draft.

From a fairness perspective. It changes the dynamic rather radically. But it's something I see initially hurting these clubs in more drafts than not and eventually greatly working in the favour of the clubs.

Did you happen to catch the TAC Cup finals over the weekend? The Dandy game by any chance?

Wondering if the BOG display by Dan Capiron has changed your opinion (for the better)?

A couple of stingrays team mates think he could play round 1 next year

I had Capiron as my B.O.G and was in attendance as I have been for all TAC Cup finals. He has performed strongly through the VFL when he has had the opportunity which is a tick - and I love within that how his play was just as good that level up. But that's one of the better games I've seen from Capiron. No doubt. Taking intercept marks and setting up play from the back half. With that game and others I've seen I do plan to work Capiron onto my draft board and that performance certainly elevated his stocks.

 

[BustingPacks]

Hey KM, just wondering if there are any players from the State Combine invite list that you think could be good AFL players?

 

[Yoda_]

I had Capiron as my B.O.G and was in attendance as I have been for all TAC Cup finals. He has performed strongly through the VFL when he has had the opportunity which is a tick - and I love within that how his play was just as good that level up. But that's one of the better games I've seen from Capiron. No doubt. Taking intercept marks and setting up play from the back half. With that game and others I've seen I do plan to work Capiron onto my draft board and that performance certainly elevated his stocks.

He's been named in the bests in more than half his games at any grade this year.

I'd happily spend a third rounder on him as a potential best 22 immediate prospect.