Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Thewlis Dish]

I just don't see us passing up Brodie if he does fall out of the top ten.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Knightmare is there any reason you don't have the matched academy bids slotting in where they were picked like they would on the day? It would be a lot more representative of what really happens. And you say Bowes is likely to be bid on at 7 by Fremantle, but then Gold Coast pick Hayward with their next pick? That pick should be used to match Fremantle's bid.

 

[Jonts]

I didn't.

Will only make that change next update if/when confirmed.

Big picture, it doesn't make any difference.

GWS just use different picks to get the same players.

Pick 2 (GWS) no matter what is McGrath unless Essendon throw a spanner in the works and take him before their selection.

After that they'll take Setterfield (unless a bid before their first pick comes up), Perryman and whoever else they want from their academy.

Agree to disagree here KM
They lose 15 and 37 and some early bids come in on the likes of Mutch, Perelman and sproules they'll have to pick one to lose (not to mention later possible selections)

 

[WCEswift]

KM is there a reason you have West coast taking SPP now have you heard things etc?

 

[Hawker98]

Who's a good rebounding defender with pace that Hawthorn might be able to snag with one of their late picks?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[theGav56]

Not quite sure your comments about Fremantle's aging backline are current. Obviously there is Dawson and Johnson, but Hamling and Collins are able replacements and A Pearce is looking terrific. Crozier and Weller had really positive contributions there as rebound defenders too.

Spurr/Ibbotson Hamling Crozier Dawson/Johnson Pearce Weller

Sheridan, Tucker and Sutcliffe to replace Spurr/Ibbotson.

Collins, Hughes and Uberganger to replace Dawson/Johnson.

Personally would take Williams but look outside defense at the other pick. Perhaps Olango or another ruck even if we had English.

 

[Punchy Demons]

KM,

I haven't followed this years draft class as closely as past yrs (maybe because it now isn't the highlight of the yr for long suffering Dees fans) but I'd like to get your take on last yrs 1st rnd picks & how they would compare to this yrs? Where would they all sit in a combined draft?

On the Melb side of things, we traded this yrs 1st rnd pick for Weideman. Thoughts on that in particular would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance

 

[coniglio_number1]

KM,

I haven't followed this years draft class as closely as past yrs (maybe because it now isn't the highlight of the yr for long suffering Dees fans) but I'd like to get your take on last yrs 1st rnd picks & how they would compare to this yrs? Where would they all sit in a combined draft?

On the Melb side of things, we traded this yrs 1st rnd pick for Weideman. Thoughts on that in particular would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance

Actually you traded this years 1st to Gold Coast for Oliver

 

[PhoenixBonez]

Who's a good rebounding defender with pace that Hawthorn might be able to snag with one of their late picks?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Reece Piper might be one off the top of my head - though you're probably not asking me

 

[SumTingWong]

KM, do you think with RFC having 2 1st round picks next year that they would be banking on one or two KPF's next year of much better quality than Kerr and just go with another mid this year with their first pick?

 

[Chachi]

I just don't see us passing up Brodie if he does fall out of the top ten.

Me either. You guys are not bereft of inside mids, so maybe that's why he has you overlooking him but geez I'm not sure any self respecting recruiter could pass on him at 11. Of course, I hope he's got right.

 

[vozzon]

Hey Knightmare, great work on the phantom draft, and as a port supporter I hope your on the money. Getting Brodie, Simpkin, Graham and Mutch would be awesome.

i know this draft is said to be even to most likely there will be a few picks out of no where but like the fact you think port will go in the direction of getting 4 mids.

 

[footylover18]

Love your work KM, but no chance Brodie falls that far imo.

He's the classic, no upside, you know what you're getting, nothing flashy type that gets punished at this time of year as the latest bolter gets talked up.

Will be stunned if Will Brodie falls outside the top 10. Huge chance he's gone by pick 5 imo.

 

[Knightmare]

I just don't see us passing up Brodie if he does fall out of the top ten.

He could go a few selections earlier. It seems like he goes 10-15ish (before bidding).

Florent finished the season off in a big way. Brodie didn't. That may be the difference.

Knightmare is there any reason you don't have the matched academy bids slotting in where they were picked like they would on the day? It would be a lot more representative of what really happens. And you say Bowes is likely to be bid on at 7 by Fremantle, but then Gold Coast pick Hayward with their next pick? That pick should be used to match Fremantle's bid.

While more representative of the day. I swing around who I have going to each club too frequently. Working that out with academy selections and the points and it takes too long to do accurately with the academy bidding very fluid.

Regarding Gold Coast's selection of Bowes. I'm not even sure with the bidding system which pick moves up. Pick 10 is more points than would be needed to match pick 7. Do Gold Coast get the choice? Is it automatically the next selection after that is used?
That's not something I've had explained to me or found anything on in my research.

KM is there a reason you have West coast taking SPP now have you heard things etc?

WCE based on draft history tend to favour those who had strong bottom age years. SPP was one who was impressive not only this year as a bottom ager. Just one who makes sense and seems to tick the boxes WCE look for.

Who's a good rebounding defender with pace that Hawthorn might be able to snag with one of their late picks?

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Tom Williamson, Harry Morrison, Bailey Morrish, Cameron Zurhaar if any of them slide.

Otherwise if none of them are available, Brodie Romensky may be the guy - maybe not explosive pace but takes on the game and is super evasive and hard to lay a hand on. Good both as a mid and also off half back.

Not quite sure your comments about Fremantle's aging backline are current. Obviously there is Dawson and Johnson, but Hamling and Collins are able replacements and A Pearce is looking terrific. Crozier and Weller had really positive contributions there as rebound defenders too.

Spurr/Ibbotson Hamling Crozier Dawson/Johnson Pearce Weller

Sheridan, Tucker and Sutcliffe to replace Spurr/Ibbotson.

Collins, Hughes and Uberganger to replace Dawson/Johnson.

Personally would take Williams but look outside defense at the other pick. Perhaps Olango or another ruck even if we had English.

I don't share your enthusiasm towards Pearce. Nor Uebergang. Hughes isn't a key defender at 187cm but again not enthusiastic.

Johnson, Spurr and Ibbotson are both fine but in the latter portions of their careers. Dawson is not worth a senior list position and is not a good key defender.

Hamling and Collins are capable enough without being exceptional.

Crozier was ok this season. Weller in the short glimpse down back late season was very good, but the sample size is small. I want to see more to determine that's where he remains long term.

On Olango, he has some fans. I'm not enthusiastic. He can leap. But doesn't offer anything around the ground or forward of centre. Too one dimensional and as a ruckman doesn't possess the Naitanui/Grundy/Nicholls type power to as a tap/followup ruckman be effective either. Though others may disagree.

KM,

I haven't followed this years draft class as closely as past yrs (maybe because it now isn't the highlight of the yr for long suffering Dees fans) but I'd like to get your take on last yrs 1st rnd picks & how they would compare to this yrs? Where would they all sit in a combined draft?

On the Melb side of things, we traded this yrs 1st rnd pick for Weideman. Thoughts on that in particular would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance

The very top end last year in my view was better.

Otherwise this year looks better.

For a quick top 10 (of how they might feature to combine the two years)
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. McCluggage
5. McGrath
6. Oliver
7. Setterfield
8. Ainsworth
9. Parish
10. Francis

KM, do you think with RFC having 2 1st round picks next year that they would be banking on one or two KPF's next year of much better quality than Kerr and just go with another mid this year with their first pick?

Next year is a good year to go tall. Early draft there should be options.

In saying that, things can change. It's not like there is a father son selection certain to join Richmond. So while it's probable Richmond can get a key forward early draft, if there is someone appealing to Richmond this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see Richmond take one this year.

Hey Knightmare, great work on the phantom draft, and as a port supporter I hope your on the money. Getting Brodie, Simpkin, Graham and Mutch would be awesome.

i know this draft is said to be even to most likely there will be a few picks out of no where but like the fact you think port will go in the direction of getting 4 mids.

Port want Brodie is what I hear. Whether he falls that far is unclear. Some clubs picking after pick 10 will be hoping.

Love your work KM, but no chance Brodie falls that far imo.

He's the classic, no upside, you know what you're getting, nothing flashy type that gets punished at this time of year as the latest bolter gets talked up.

Will be stunned if Will Brodie falls outside the top 10. Huge chance he's gone by pick 5 imo.

Brodie is considered highly unlikely to feature inside the top 5 and is viewed as a better than fair chance to slip outside the top 10, with no club inside the top 10 seeming set on him.

His numbers aren't so outstanding in the TAC Cup and his second half to the season was patchy at best.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

He could go a few selections earlier. It seems like he goes 10-15ish (before bidding).

Florent finished the season off in a big way. Brodie didn't. That may be the difference.

I am a big Florent fan and would be delighted if we draft him - I think he will end up a genuine inside/outside mid, and is obviously very tough mentally. However Brodie has a body of work that spans 18-24 months, so not sure it's fair to judge him on a second half of the season which was riddled with injuries. I think he would be too good to pass up and would be viewed as Swallow's replacement, allowing Ziebell to play across half forward more.

I think what will also come into play is we have not done brilliantly with first round picks of late, and have often gone for someone who has the upside but not necessarily the runs on the board (Durdin, Garner, McKenzie, McKay, even Atley was more potential than product). Cunnington was probably the last "can't miss" guy we drafted in the first round.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

He could go a few selections earlier. It seems like he goes 10-15ish (before bidding).

Florent finished the season off in a big way. Brodie didn't. That may be the difference.



While more representative of the day. I swing around who I have going to each club too frequently. Working that out with academy selections and the points and it takes too long to do accurately with the academy bidding very fluid.

Regarding Gold Coast's selection of Bowes. I'm not even sure with the bidding system which pick moves up. Pick 10 is more points than would be needed to match pick 7. Do Gold Coast get the choice? Is it automatically the next selection after that is used?
That's not something I've had explained to me or found anything on in my research.



WCE based on draft history tend to favour those who had strong bottom age years. SPP was one who was impressive not only this year as a bottom ager. Just one who makes sense and seems to tick the boxes WCE look for.



Tom Williamson, Harry Morrison, Bailey Morrish, Cameron Zurhaar if any of them slide.

Otherwise if none of them are available, Brodie Romensky may be the guy - maybe not explosive pace but takes on the game and is super evasive and hard to lay a hand on. Good both as a mid and also off half back.



I don't share your enthusiasm towards Pearce. Nor Uebergang. Hughes isn't a key defender at 187cm but again not enthusiastic.

Johnson, Spurr and Ibbotson are both fine but in the latter portions of their careers. Dawson is not worth a senior list position and is not a good key defender.

Hamling and Collins are capable enough without being exceptional.

Crozier was ok this season. Weller in the short glimpse down back late season was very good, but the sample size is small. I want to see more to determine that's where he remains long term.

On Olango, he has some fans. I'm not enthusiastic. He can leap. But doesn't offer anything around the ground or forward of centre. Too one dimensional and as a ruckman doesn't possess the Naitanui/Grundy/Nicholls type power to as a tap/followup ruckman be effective either. Though others may disagree.



The very top end last year in my view was better.

Otherwise this year looks better.

For a quick top 10 (of how they might feature to combine the two years)
1. Weitering
2. Schache
3. Mills
4. McCluggage
5. McGrath
6. Oliver
7. Setterfield
8. Ainsworth
9. Parish
10. Francis



Next year is a good year to go tall. Early draft there should be options.

In saying that, things can change. It's not like there is a father son selection certain to join Richmond. So while it's probable Richmond can get a key forward early draft, if there is someone appealing to Richmond this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see Richmond take one this year.



Port want Brodie is what I hear. Whether he falls that far is unclear. Some clubs picking after pick 10 will be hoping.



Brodie is considered highly unlikely to feature inside the top 5 and is viewed as a better than fair chance to slip outside the top 10, with no club inside the top 10 seeming set on him.

His numbers aren't so outstanding in the TAC Cup and his second half to the season was patchy at best.

That makes sense, I wondered why you did it that way.

As for which pick - definitely the next pick they have. They don't get to choose. Also something I found out the other day is that if you are using a first round pick on a first round bid you don't get a pick back as change - just points saved over at the end of the draft to be used if you need to go into deficit. Yet to confirm that officially but a couple on bigfooty seemed sure of it.

 

[FirstAccount]

I don't share your enthusiasm towards Pearce.

Am trying not cry about this.

But all in all, good job here and on the ESPN site!

 

[Punchy Demons]

Actually you traded this years 1st to Gold Coast for Oliver

Think you are wrong there. If my memory is right we started with #6 & #29 (2015 ND) traded that to GC for #3, 10 & our 2016 1st rnd pick.

We then traded #10, #40 something & #60 something to GWS for #7 & Tom Bugg

We ultimately selected #3 Oliver & #9 Weideman (as we were bumped two spots after academy bids for mills & hopper were matched)

GC now have #8 in 2016 draft for weideman?

Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong?

 

[coniglio_number1]

Think you are wrong there. If my memory is right we started with #6 & #29 (2015 ND) traded that to GC for #3, 10 & our 2016 1st rnd pick.

We then traded #10, #40 something & #60 something to GWS for #7 & Tom Bugg

We ultimately selected #3 Oliver & #9 Weideman (as we were bumped two spots after academy bids for mills & hopper were matched)

GC now have #8 in 2016 draft for weideman?

Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong?

You received gold coasts 2015 first which you selected Oliver for your 2016 first.

 

[Knightmare]

I am a big Florent fan and would be delighted if we draft him - I think he will end up a genuine inside/outside mid, and is obviously very tough mentally. However Brodie has a body of work that spans 18-24 months, so not sure it's fair to judge him on a second half of the season which was riddled with injuries. I think he would be too good to pass up and would be viewed as Swallow's replacement, allowing Ziebell to play across half forward more.

I think what will also come into play is we have not done brilliantly with first round picks of late, and have often gone for someone who has the upside but not necessarily the runs on the board (Durdin, Garner, McKenzie, McKay, even Atley was more potential than product). Cunnington was probably the last "can't miss" guy we drafted in the first round.

Brodie is my personal pick of the two also.

Will be interesting to see where both boys go.

North you're right do seem to draft for upside/attributes. It's not a recruiting style that garners the greatest results in my view - with performances on the board and in mids specifically high contested ball numbers what I have come to value instead.

Attributes is consistent with North's drafting in the first round. Both Brodie and Florent have tricks. So they're both realistic chances for the selection.

Am trying not cry about this.

But all in all, good job here and on the ESPN site!

I'll reiterate that Pearce does not excite me from my viewings.

He clearly does excite Fremantle fans, but his game does not fit within my values of what makes a successful key defender in the modern game.

200cm is nice and he is looking like he can develop into an able stopper.

20 marks (over the 8 games) is unappealing to say the least. Even x3 8 games = 24 games that would only add up to 60 marks.

100+ marks is what good key defenders provide in the modern game.

Pearce is still young. But early days, he isn't projecting to have those capabilities with no more than 4 marks in any game this year.

 

[Scham]

Love Williamson at our second pick Knightmare, and whilst I won't be disappointed if we take English with our first, I hope we take Hayward.

I disagree with your thoughts on Pearce and its early days but I think Ueber showed a lot this year. Agree on the others though. However I think our real deficiency is for medium defenders that can kick rather than KD's. So if we can get the two best available Med def with our second pick and third picks it'll go a long way to fixing the problem. Williamson, Morrison, Bailey, Guelfi???

At our next, best avail mid, maybe Brayshaw? but Junker, Noonan, Alison, Poholke also appeal to me there. Who do you think?

 

[Punchy Demons]

You received gold coasts 2015 first which you selected Oliver for your 2016 first.

Agree to Disagree. As outlined in previous post.
We traded 2016 first for weideman

 

[jakefooty23]

Hi, Do you think Jeremy Goddard will be overlooked in the draft? Or do you think a team will use a late pick on him, as a Fremantle supporter I would prefer to take Goddard late instead of English early...

 

[dlanod]

You received gold coasts 2015 first which you selected Oliver for your 2016 first.

Agree to Disagree. As outlined in previous post.
We traded 2016 first for weideman

I don't get what you two are arguing about. Pick 3, used for Oliver, was obtained by trading Melbourne's 2015 and 2016 first round picks to GC. Pick 10 was also obtained in the same trade, which was then on-traded to obtain pick 7, used for Weideman.

Oliver was a direct result of the trade and Weideman was an indirect result of the trade, but in neither case was the 2016 first rounder directly traded for either because the deal was 2015 and 2016 first rounders for 3 and 10 (plus later picks that are irrelevant for this discussion).

 

[BlueWoof_#39]

Hi KM, Im a big Tom Williamson fan. Do you think it's too much of a reach for Carlton to pick him at 25 or is there a better chance of him being there at our 3rd round pick? Has his value increased post combine and due to still being 17yo?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk