Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Glenny83]

I've actually quite liked what I've seen of Hayward overhead. I've found him to be very strong and capable overhead. I'm not so worried. He isn't reliant on taking it on his chest. Very strong overhead based on his play during the finals. Near-on unstoppable.



Have just submitted to ESPN my phantom draft. Hopefully it's up tomorrow or if not then Thursday.

I've again gone just the first two rounds and structured it the same as last time, though it is looking very different with probably half the names shuffled around and several different names to my previous phantom draft.

The final phantom draft I'll release will be on draft week. That one will be a full draft.

--
If I was to extend my phantom draft into the third round.

For Adelaide I'd have Jarman heading to Adelaide for pick 53 (with a bid to come somewhere before that to equate to roughly pick 53).

For pick 43 I could throw anyone in there. Joseph Atley, Patrick Lipinski or Cameron Zurhaar might be among those next few I'd have going in the third round of my phantom if I was to extend it out and I'd probably slot one of them into Adelaide's selection.

Thanks for your view. I believe Jarman will come in at 53 also.

On a side note, did you delay your submission to ESPN to have the phantom reflect a possible GWS loss of picks from the AFL?

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for your view. I believe Jarman will come in at 53 also.

On a side note, did you delay your submission to ESPN to have the phantom reflect a possible GWS loss of picks from the AFL?

I didn't.

Will only make that change next update if/when confirmed.

Big picture, it doesn't make any difference.

GWS just use different picks to get the same players.

Pick 2 (GWS) no matter what is McGrath unless Essendon throw a spanner in the works and take him before their selection.

After that they'll take Setterfield (unless a bid before their first pick comes up), Perryman and whoever else they want from their academy.

 

[Glenny83]

I didn't.

Will only make that change next update if/when confirmed.

Big picture, it doesn't make any difference.

GWS just use different picks to get the same players.

Pick 2 (GWS) no matter what is McGrath unless Essendon throw a spanner in the works and take him before their selection.

After that they'll take Setterfield (unless a bid before their first pick comes up), Perryman and whoever else they want from their academy.

Thats true and in all likelihood with no announcement today there won't be a sanction on GWS.

Are you going to draft night? Hope you snag some interviews!

 

[Knightmare]

Thats true and in all likelihood with no announcement today there won't be a sanction on GWS.

Are you going to draft night? Hope you snag some interviews!

ESPN will be represented at the draft and have at least one reporter at the draft that I'm aware of.

With a day job (in Melbourne) I won't be attendance.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I didn't.

Will only make that change next update if/when confirmed.

Big picture, it doesn't make any difference.

GWS just use different picks to get the same players.

Pick 2 (GWS) no matter what is McGrath unless Essendon throw a spanner in the works and take him before their selection.

After that they'll take Setterfield (unless a bid before their first pick comes up), Perryman and whoever else they want from their academy.

If they lose picks 15 and 37 and there are first round bids for Setterfield and Perryman, which they obviously would match, it may impact their later bids/picks.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey KM,

Alot of people seem to think Marshall will slide out of the top 20 pick at this stage. There's also talk about English and Battle sliding. I was wondering if there's a glimmer of hope that Marshall is available at pick 28?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Hey KM,

Alot of people seem to think Marshall will slide out of the top 10 pick at this stage. There's also talk about English and Battle sliding. I was wondering if there's a glimmer of hope that Marshall is available at pick 28?

In ya dreams bud

 

[CRIPPA9]

G'day KM,


Interested on your thoughts on Kobe Mutch. Is Carlton's 25 too early? How do you see him developing?

Thanks mate.

 

[Glitch]

The idea of the academy and giving the QLD and NSW clubs access to it is to find the talent (which they're doing) and to develop them (which some clubs are doing better than others). GWS are the recent example of how the academy shouldn't be allowed to run with all those players playing in Victoria and for different TAC Cup sides. That just plainly shouldn't be in the rules. They should be developing under the guidance of GWS specialist coaches for GWS to be given special access to them. If they're in Victoria for schooling + football then they should move out of the academy program and just join the draft pool as anyone else would. In my view that's a more reasonable and moral way to go about the system.

The points system was a definite step in the right direction though. There is still that incentive there for the clubs, but at the same time it's not like adding a Heeney level talent at the end of the first round, when they should otherwise be pick 1-3. So credit to the AFL for devising that system and also taking a step into the future with the following years first round picks also now available for trading which is a great positive for player movement.

Well said.

Team AFL can even go into deficit to secure their players. It looks like pick 27 will become pick 30 in this draft with the most advantages going to a club at the top of the ladder, the flag favourite - at the expense of a club like mine (Richmond) - and probably yours, who are battling to improve.

When the odds are stacked - usually it's called cheating.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

ESPN will be represented at the draft and have at least one reporter at the draft that I'm aware of.

With a day job (in Melbourne) I won't be attendance.

Just pull a sicky...

 

[SaintsSeptember]

ESPN will be represented at the draft and have at least one reporter at the draft that I'm aware of.

With a day job (in Melbourne) I won't be attendance.

Just don't let it get in the way of your important work

 

[remfan101]

When will your 2nd phantom be out?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Pick 2 (GWS) no matter what is McGrath unless Essendon throw a spanner in the works and take him before their selection.

After that they'll take Setterfield (unless a bid before their first pick comes up), Perryman and whoever else they want from their academy.

Don't pay for Perryman. Don't even fix a price. Don't do it.

 

[Determinant]

Don't pay for Perryman. Don't even fix a price. Don't do it.

Perryman will be a giant.

 

[Danger in Texas]

His phantom is up, blokes.

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18053132/knightmare-updated-2016-afl-phantom-draft

Knightmare what makes you think we'd take Venables ahead of Brodie? You might guess I'm a fan of Venables ( ), but I do like Brodie more.

 

[Gollo]

What do you think the chances are that the Dogs pass on Marshall at 18, if available? I'm not a huge fan, would much rather we go with someone else, but late noise suggests that we like him quite a lot.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

His phantom is up

Is that your pet name for it?

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Perryman will be a giant.

Did you not hear Chris de Burgh's message through song?

 

[year of the cat]

Cats with Cox and Cumming in this new version. Righteo......

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Cats with Cox and Cumming in this new version. Righteo......

Yep, I'd be happy with it aswell.

 

[RedBulls]

Brodie dropping because of his injuries or just player to club fit higher up the order?

 

[Knightmare]

If they lose picks 15 and 37 and there are first round bids for Setterfield and Perryman, which they obviously would match, it may impact their later bids/picks.

GWS if need be can go into deficit for next year on those they may be looking to match on.

But they've got plenty of picks late they can use (even beyond those that go towards bidding points) if required.

So they'll be fine. Even if they lose picks 15/37.

They've planned for it.

Hey KM,

Alot of people seem to think Marshall will slide out of the top 20 pick at this stage. There's also talk about English and Battle sliding. I was wondering if there's a glimmer of hope that Marshall is available at pick 28?

English should still feature inside the top 10.

Battle isn't a first rounder but should go somewhere in the second round.

Marshall looks firmly like a top 20 choice. He could slide to around 18 where Brodie Grundy went, when he slid. But he looks still like a first rounder.

G'day KM,

Interested on your thoughts on Kobe Mutch. Is Carlton's 25 too early? How do you see him developing?

Thanks mate.

I like Mutch. Big numbers but good all-rounder (endurance good, wins it inside and outside, skills clean) without necessarily any flash.

May not quite go that high, but that isn't to say he shouldn't.

When will your 2nd phantom be out?

It's up now: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18053132/knightmare-updated-2016-afl-phantom-draft

What do you think the chances are that the Dogs pass on Marshall at 18, if available? I'm not a huge fan, would much rather we go with someone else, but late noise suggests that we like him quite a lot.

It's a possibility the Dogs pass on Marshall if there. I toyed with him dropped to Essendon at 20 but in the end I figured WBD have a strong young nucleus and with the opportunity there to load up on a key forward with the potential to be as good as any in this draft. I can see the Dogs taking that chance.

Cats with Cox and Cumming in this new version. Righteo......

The Geelong back half does concern me with Enright retired, Bartel retired and no longer there to swing back and Mackie on his last legs (before considering the ages of some of the key defenders).

There are particularly good general defenders in this draft, so if Geelong see value, I expect they'll capitalise.

Brodie dropping because of his injuries or just player to club fit higher up the order?

Struggles through the second half of the season and below expectation numbers in the TAC Cup see him drop further than initially expected.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

KM, have you rated Marshall on your three criteria for key forwards yet? Interested in seeing it regardless. Apologies if I've missed it somewhere in the thread.

 

[captainrich]

good read mate...do you really thinnk brodie could drop that low? possibility the drop keeps going to pick 16 for the lions?

cheers

 

[Knightmare]

KM, have you rated Marshall on your three criteria for key forwards yet? Interested in seeing it regardless. Apologies if I've missed it somewhere in the thread.

Performance 0/1 (numbers by position not what you'd expect of a premier key forward at this age)
Improvement/upside 0.5/1 (limited in season improvement but is a country lad who has only this season taken AFL seriously so the scope to improve is there)
Attributes 1/1 (height, athleticism and ground level ability rare by position)

1.5/3 = chance to make it.

good read mate...do you really thinnk brodie could drop that low? possibility the drop keeps going to pick 16 for the lions?

cheers

Brodie still has top 10 chances but the feel is he will fall just outside the 10. Unclear just how far he drops. Great value if still there for Brisbane. Unlikely, but plausible until it becomes clear he won't be there.