Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

cheers for that, great work as alway. love reading all your stuff.


while i do agree that we already have many options up forward for 2017/18 and as you pointed out next year looks better for key Forward.

but how long does Cloke have? 2-3 years at best, Crameri is pushing 30 and Redpath well can he make it?

my personal view is if we got one or even 2 key forward this draft, it would allow us to develop them with Footscray while still having cloke and crameri at the club. By 2019/20 when cloke retires Boyd will be 23/24 and have 70-90 games under his belt, while the 2 young forward would with any luck played about 50 odd games at VFL level.

that said im happy with who ever our team decides to pick, as i believe we will pick 2 very good prospects to go with our last few drafts.

Cloke for me has bottomed out and can maintain from here. He was poorly managed by Collingwood last season, with 2016 an outlier for him with Collingwood not allowing him to build any confidence which was devastating for him as a confidence player. His durability has been outstanding over his career - he plays through injuries and plays a consistent 20+ games each season (before finals). His father remained durable and was productive until 36 so Cloke could do the same and maybe (if motivated) last until he is 35. He seems to have bottomed out with his finger/hand issues - no longer taking marks as he once did. But he still has the endurance and still has the size. So I'm not seeing him dropping off any further. He can be an ongoing 30 goal, 120 mark key forward which is still very good but just not what he once was.

Is there a reason why Battle was dropped out of your top 30 rather suddenly?

Also, do you think Marshall has the potential to play a position other than key forward?

In my power rankings Battle has dropped out due to re-analysis of others - favouring their games and questioning Battle's capacity to be a key forward at AFL level - looking more like a mobile 3rd tall who leads higher up the ground as opposed to being a genuine key forward.

Marshall if things don't work out for him up forward may be able to swing to a key defence post. That would be a last resort. But plausible given his height and movement (not that he has played there).

 

[adsla69k]

So looks like Essendon will bid pick 1 on Setterfield. Im guessing GWS match. Then Essendon could bid Pick 2 on Bowes and GC match. Then that leaves Essondon to pick either McCluggage or McGrath at pick 3 and Brisbane with pick 4 to take who isnt picked right?

Either way with GWS matching or not, Brisbane are sitting pretty with McCluggage or McGrath.

 

[Clems Knee]

So looks like Essendon will bid pick 1 on Setterfield. Im guessing GWS match. Then Essendon could bid Pick 2 on Bowes and GC match. Then that leaves Essondon to pick either McCluggage or McGrath at pick 3 and Brisbane with pick 4 to take who isnt picked right?

Either way with GWS matching or not, Brisbane are sitting pretty with McCluggage or McGrath.

What makes you think this?

 

[coniglio_number1]

So looks like Essendon will bid pick 1 on Setterfield. Im guessing GWS match. Then Essendon could bid Pick 2 on Bowes and GC match. Then that leaves Essondon to pick either McCluggage or McGrath at pick 3 and Brisbane with pick 4 to take who isnt picked right?

Either way with GWS matching or not, Brisbane are sitting pretty with McCluggage or McGrath.

Giants have already stated that they won't match a bid at pick 1. McGrath is a better prospect than setterfield

 

[RaySamuel]

Any word on if liam ryan from subi is a chance to get picked up? And by who?

 

[blueiris]

So looks like Essendon will bid pick 1 on Setterfield. Im guessing GWS match. Then Essendon could bid Pick 2 on Bowes and GC match. Then that leaves Essondon to pick either McCluggage or McGrath at pick 3 and Brisbane with pick 4 to take who isnt picked right?

Either way with GWS matching or not, Brisbane are sitting pretty with McCluggage or McGrath.

There's no guarantee that we would pick either McLuggage or McGrath Lions would pick the player that wanted to play for them in Ainsworth

 

[Happy Daze]

What makes you think this?

I too would like to know where this is coming from.

 

[BanjoRed]

Hi Knightmare, been following this thread for a while now and I have a lot of respect for you .

What chances do you feel Todd Marshall has of slipping down to Essendon's pick #20? And adding onto that, if he lasts to the Dogs pick at #18 will they almost certainly take him?

Thanks mate!

 

[SizeMatters]

There's no guarantee that we would pick either McLuggage or McGrath Lions would pick the player that wanted to play for them in Ainsworth

Disagree. If McCluggage is available we would be stupid to not select him. Ainsworth is a small forward with potential to play midfield. We need midfielders and McCluggage fits that.

 

[blueiris]

Disagree. If McCluggage is available we would be stupid to not select him. Ainsworth is a small forward with potential to play midfield. We need midfielders and McCluggage fits that.

I think we need small forwards more and can draft midfielders with latter picks I think Ainsworth is too good to pass up and wants play for us McLuggage could easily leave in 2 years so I would go with the player wanting to play us

 

[SizeMatters]

I think we need small forwards more and can draft midfielders with latter picks I think Ainsworth is too good to pass up and wants play for us McLuggage could easily leave in 2 years so I would go with the player wanting to play us

fair enough but I have never heard a draftee say they wouldn't come to a club publicly before. I just think McCluggage is a better list fit and we can still grab someone like Simpkin, or Bolton to play as a forward.

 

[McCraeBF]

Neither McCluggage or Mcgrath will slide to 3.

In the odd scenario they did, it would probably be because Ainsworth goes 1/2.

Unclearly if one of McCluggage or McGrath are there at 3 whether Brisbane would take them.

Don't think Brisbane will take SPS. He doesn't appear in the mix anymore.



Only invited to the state combine. Being a top ager and not really mentioned much during the year, that has seen him go to the state rather than national combine.

Whether he gets picked or not is unclear, but I'm a big wrap for him. High % contested ball winner and one of the most explosive players in this draft. His game in my view can translate. He is one of this years semi-hidden gems, hiding in plain sight but little spoken about.



GWS is the AFL's team as Sydney once were, or so the saying goes.

GWS want McGrath so I can't see the AFL imposing that heavy of a penalty on them.

 

[Knightmare]

Any word on if liam ryan from subi is a chance to get picked up? And by who?

Liam Ryan if picked probably goes late/rookie.

Had a terrific season.

Have not heard a specific club connected strongly to him.

Though perhaps some of the WA recruiters on here may have.

Hi Knightmare, been following this thread for a while now and I have a lot of respect for you .

What chances do you feel Todd Marshall has of slipping down to Essendon's pick #20? And adding onto that, if he lasts to the Dogs pick at #18 will they almost certainly take him?

Thanks mate!

Marshall slipping to 20 is plausible. 10-20 is his likely range.

Dogs will consider Marshall if there but it's unclear whether they select Marshall or someone else.

The Dogs have chosen well in recent times, but it's possible Marshall's mild production scares them off.

So looks like Essendon will bid pick 1 on Setterfield. Im guessing GWS match. Then Essendon could bid Pick 2 on Bowes and GC match. Then that leaves Essondon to pick either McCluggage or McGrath at pick 3 and Brisbane with pick 4 to take who isnt picked right?

Either way with GWS matching or not, Brisbane are sitting pretty with McCluggage or McGrath.

GWS wouldn't match a bid of pick 1 for Setterfield. Gold Coast may not for Bowes either (though the latter I have received no indication of).

 

[Sashand88]

Hi, KM when is next phantom draft due out? Guessing through ESPN.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi, KM when is next phantom draft due out? Guessing through ESPN.

Will be filed tomorrow night and my hope is Wednesday it will be up on ESPN.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi KM,
All appreciate yr great work , could you please clarify I keep hearing rumors that SOS is having a good look at Wil Hayward SA , word is his been rocketing up to contention level at pick 5 could that possible?
Apparently high risk but potentially huge reward have you seen much of him? realistically does he have good midfield potential?
Also hear Brodie will drop out of top 10 contention is that possible?
Thanks

 

[henry27]

What's your thoughts on the eagles getting gallucci with pick 12? I honestly think it's a reach, he's been pretty inconsistent this season

 

[maverick001]

What's your thoughts on the eagles getting gallucci with pick 12? I honestly think it's a reach, he's been pretty inconsistent this season

Have you heard that we might take him at 12? That would make me unhappy - someone who doesn't consistently win enough footy and has questionable foot skills is not what we need.
I'm still furious from choosing sheed over cripps, Duggan over weller, and lamb over blakely. The latter two at the time I thought were the obvious selections.

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Hey knightmare. Thoughts on where shail Bolton might go? Who might be looking at him and what you project he becomes

 

[Bicks]

Have you heard that we might take him at 12? That would make me unhappy - someone who doesn't consistently win enough footy and has questionable foot skills is not what we need.
I'm still furious from choosing sheed over cripps, Duggan over weller, and lamb over blakely. The latter two at the time I thought were the obvious selections.

Cal Twomey and AFL Talent Manager Mick Ablett on "Road To The Draft" Podcast today have you taking Jarrod Berry in their Mock Draft.

http://www.afl.com.au/draft/road-to-the-draft

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
All appreciate yr great work , could you please clarify I keep hearing rumors that SOS is having a good look at Wil Hayward SA , word is his been rocketing up to contention level at pick 5 could that possible?
Apparently high risk but potentially huge reward have you seen much of him? realistically does he have good midfield potential?
Also hear Brodie will drop out of top 10 contention is that possible?
Thanks

Neither are out of the question.

Hayward looks like a top 15 choice and may push into the top 10.

Brodie is sounding less like Carlton's first choice and could well drop out of the top 10 depending on how Gold Coast feel about his game.

What's your thoughts on the eagles getting gallucci with pick 12? I honestly think it's a reach, he's been pretty inconsistent this season

Earlier than I'd take Gallucci. Doesn't win enough of the ball and footskills can be on/off. He if goes first round, it would be late first for me.

Hey knightmare. Thoughts on where shail Bolton might go? Who might be looking at him and what you project he becomes

Shai Bolton is a late first to early second rounder. Any of those clubs in that rough range could be considering him.

Will reveal where I have him in my phantom draft tomorrow if ESPN have my updated phantom draft up by then.

 

[McCraeBF]

Seen a bit of Hayward over the year a good kid and has talent BUT marks on his chest way to much and afl backman will destroy him asnd his body shape wont be able to brush off.

Dogs are very keen on Marshall and interviewed Cox (Tall one) 3 times.

Few kids also at Dandenong who have been injured this year that are getting interest

 

[McCraeBF]

No way we take long at 26

 

[Glenny83]

Hey KM, I'm guessing your phantom ends at the second round tomorrow. Did you do one that covers the third round that's not published? If so who do you have at AFC's 43 & 53 picks?

 

[Knightmare]

Seen a bit of Hayward over the year a good kid and has talent BUT marks on his chest way to much and afl backman will destroy him asnd his body shape wont be able to brush off.

Dogs are very keen on Marshall and interviewed Cox (Tall one) 3 times.

Few kids also at Dandenong who have been injured this year that are getting interest

I've actually quite liked what I've seen of Hayward overhead. I've found him to be very strong and capable overhead. I'm not so worried. He isn't reliant on taking it on his chest. Very strong overhead based on his play during the finals. Near-on unstoppable.

Hey KM, I'm guessing your phantom ends at the second round tomorrow. Did you do one that covers the third round that's not published? If so who do you have at AFC's 43 & 53 picks?

Have just submitted to ESPN my phantom draft. Hopefully it's up tomorrow or if not then Thursday.

I've again gone just the first two rounds and structured it the same as last time, though it is looking very different with probably half the names shuffled around and several different names to my previous phantom draft.

The final phantom draft I'll release will be on draft week. That one will be a full draft.

--
If I was to extend my phantom draft into the third round.

For Adelaide I'd have Jarman heading to Adelaide for pick 53 (with a bid to come somewhere before that to equate to roughly pick 53).

For pick 43 I could throw anyone in there. Joseph Atley, Patrick Lipinski or Cameron Zurhaar might be among those next few I'd have going in the third round of my phantom if I was to extend it out and I'd probably slot one of them into Adelaide's selection.