Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

I posted this on the Richmond board because they are the names being brought up a lot.

The names Naish, Allen and Balta keep coming up.

I know this is a tough one, but of the current AFL players who do these three look like they could be compared to in the future?

Straight from my power rankings:
Allen = Jack Gunston
Balta = Jarrad Waite

Naish I haven't spent any time thinking about a player comparison for. Top of mind. Karl Amon is one name I think of.

KM why do you think Worpel will slide so much? Rated highly in your ratings and is ready to go, was hoping the Sun's look at him at 19 cause he seems what we need

My view is he's entirely underrated and is ready to go.

Clubs tend to look for mid who can do more things rather than just the hard inside stuff. Worpel while he has played some forward, is more a pure mid. He isn't super high x-factor and is viewed more as a solid citizen than potential star.

Hi Knightmare. Who would you expect to be available to chose from with the pies pick 38? Also what pick would you expect Tyler brown to be bid on?

Pies probably look at the best available key defender. If I was to extend the phantom draft, that would have been Oscar Clavarino.

As for Tyler Brown, there shouldn't be any early bids. Pies might be able to get him with their last pick. If a bid comes too early, Pies may not match.

Hi KM. Loved the phantom.

Do you have any idea of cat b rookies who may get picked up this year?

It's harder to find out about cat b rookies typically until signed, as often they'll come from other sports or overseas and there isn't much forewarning.

Two who may be considered that I am aware of are Cillian McDaid (Carlton have expressed interest in the Irishman) and Stefan Okunbar who is another Irishman considered a possible cat b rookie.

Hey knightmare, just wanted to know your thoughts on Hunter Clark, as I liked what limited footage I saw of him but have heard a few people say he struggles to hit targets by foot, just wondering if you thought that was true at all?

Also does he project as one that will transition into playing midfield easily at AFL level, as we are notorious for picking guys who were originally flankers (like Hunter), thinking they had the scope to make it in the midfield but never really doing so.

Cheers mate

Clark is a very good kick actually. Duel sided. Reliable. Placement on kicks good when he has time and space. The one relative issue that may make some question his kicking is when under pressure his kicking can be a ? and same goes with his decision making. They're his relative weak points and the reason he is viewed as more of a 10-15 pick than a 5-9 pick.

Clark for mine is a mid. Can play flank, but his numbers have been stronger than Rayner/LDU/Dow and only matched by Cerra (who played very little). He's also excellent inside or outside, so he gives you options.

Hi KM. Now that the Pies have formally nominated Tyler Brown as a father/son selection about when do you expect him to bid on?

Late. Brown improved late in the season, and while he has a late year birthday and some attributes that make him draftable, he isn't a high production type or someone so freakish that anyone within the first three rounds should express any interest.

 

[Kangas_11]

Hey KM, great work yet again.

Do you reckon Adam Sambono will get drafted this year? And if so, do you reckon he's a chance to last til our late picks (78, 91, 96)?

He came out of nowhere the last couple of years and only started playing footy 3 years ago if I remember correctly. Really like him as a late flier.

 

[Obeanie1]

Haha, most likely.

I meant before that though. I would assume maybe Fremantle and Collingwood to name two.

Pretty much. Can see Pies or Freo going for D Fogerty, Crows a kp back and Lions forced to use a late first on Ballenden.

I think Tigers will go for either Oscar Allen or a ruck / forward with one of their firsts and hoping to use the pick in the 20's on Naish.

 

[Knightmare]

KM where do you see Joel Amartey & Wil Walker being drafted if at all

Also do you think Hamish Brayshaw will make it onto a rookie list this year

Will Walker I feel probably slots in somewhere late draft.

Joel Amartey and Hamish Brayshaw late/rookie chances but not certainties.

If the Eagles ended up with what you have put up I wouldnt be unhappy at all. Especially the first three in Clark, L Fogarty and Meirs.

Garner and Bailey I also like but wouldnt mind a tall at 32 or 37 just to balance this years cohort.

Interesting you dont rate Constable but hyou have him gone in the first round? Take it that is due to what clubs are rating him at?

Also feel a club will force the Lions to use a earlier pick on Ballenden...18.

My phantom draft doesn't reflect where I rate players, only where I see them going.

Ballenden I'm expecting a bid to come for somewhere in the 20s as a rough early guess.

It's plausible a Richmond consider bidding before Brisbane's pick 18, but I suspect they favour some others.

Yes, would definitely put a bit of pep in our step.

I am imagining Rayner would play early. What about Stephenson?

Depends how Stephenson develops over the offseason. He'll be someone who will have the odd good AFL game but will be inconsistent early days being a taller type.

Anybody know what clubs will be aiming for a tall forward in the first round?

Richmond, maybe Collingwood, maybe Fremantle, maybe Sydney, maybe but probably not West Coast.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, great work yet again.

Do you reckon Adam Sambono will get drafted this year? And if so, do you reckon he's a chance to last til our late picks (78, 91, 96)?

He came out of nowhere the last couple of years and only started playing footy 3 years ago if I remember correctly. Really like him as a late flier.

Sambono is in the mix late draft. No club will definitely take him in the national draft that I'm aware of yet, so it's possible one of those picks could secure Sambono.

He has some attributes and you're right he is a late comer with little competitive footy before this year. Has the speed, tackling enthusiasm, can hit the scoreboard. Reminds me in some respects of Brad Dick as a light bodied enthusiastic forward for those who were watching Collingwood 2007-2011.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

Interested to know what you would do with Norths pick 4? It's obvious that it appears to be out of Cerra and Stephenson. 1 is has elite composure, 1 has elite speed an X factor. Equally, 1 has question marks over their pace and the other has question marks over their kicking.

Obviously norths midfield is seriously problematic, and an obvious lack of speed and composure.

Which of these two do you see with the highest ceiling? Who would you take at 4?

I'd go in order of my power rankings.

Rayner/LDU/Cerra/Dow. Go the best available. Capitalise on the quality. They can all be stars injuries and good player development permitting.

Cerra/Stephenson. Cerra in my view has the higher ceiling. He may become the best in the draft, that's how highly I rate his upside. Has the contested ball winning and production on an extremely high level when he was playing. Then you've got the bonuses of - he's a really good kick with composure who makes good decisions. He also in a half kicked 3 goals, 5 behinds. Suggesting scope also as a forward. He's my pick. And I'd look to address speed later in the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

October phantom draft (first two rounds): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21134708/knightmare-october-phantom-draft-first-two-rounds

 

[David C]

David Noble was interviewed recently and indicated that most likely Brissy would take midfielders with their first 3 picks. Pick 18 might need to be revised. I like LUD at pick 1 as his parents have a house in Brisbane so reduced go home factor.

 

[Jack Richards]

Some big names there still in the late teens.

 

[HedgeFund]

They can all be stars injuries and good player development permitting.

Conversely, if they suffer injuries or aren’t willing/able to develop properly in their AFL environment, they could become another Toumpas, O’Rourke, Hoskin-Elliott, Scharenberg, Aish, Freeman, McCartin, Ahern, Schache, Francis, etc.

 

[Apex36]

Conversely, if they suffer injuries or aren’t willing/able to develop properly in their AFL environment, they could become another Toumpas, O’Rourke, Hoskin-Elliott, Scharenberg, Aish, Freeman, McCartin, Ahern, Schache, Francis, etc.

Scharenberg’s numbers are excellent and he’s over his injuries now. Doesn’t deserve to be on that list.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

October phantom draft (first two rounds): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21134708/knightmare-october-phantom-draft-first-two-rounds

KM - well done on the your work on the West Coast picks. I think you nailed the needs combined with the talent that is there very well.

The logic of the pick trades becomes so obvious now you see the players delisted and the shape of the draft with so much of what we want in the second round

 

[maverick001]

Hey knightmare, just wanted to know your thoughts on Hunter Clark, as I liked what limited footage I saw of him but have heard a few people say he struggles to hit targets by foot, just wondering if you thought that was true at all?

Also does he project as one that will transition into playing midfield easily at AFL level, as we are notorious for picking guys who were originally flankers (like Hunter), thinking they had the scope to make it in the midfield but never really doing so.

Cheers mate

Duggan . Saw that one coming a mile away. Weller was always the smart choice there. And we could've just picked up pick 2 for him too. Not that Eagles list management would've had the balls to hold out for those bickies. Lamb over Blakely in the same draft was also a source of much pain at the time, that's turned out nicely too .

Let's hope Venables is a better example of a flanker-cum-mid we've drafted.

 

[maverick001]

Hey knightmare, just wanted to know your thoughts on Hunter Clark, as I liked what limited footage I saw of him but have heard a few people say he struggles to hit targets by foot, just wondering if you thought that was true at all?

Also does he project as one that will transition into playing midfield easily at AFL level, as we are notorious for picking guys who were originally flankers (like Hunter), thinking they had the scope to make it in the midfield but never really doing so.

Cheers mate

Clark by the sounds has been playing exclusively as a mid to great effect in the second half of the season. So no worries drafting him as a mid . Just about every phantom has us taking him at 13. Hope he makes it that far, and we don't do something dumb.

 

[HedgeFund]

Scharenberg’s numbers are excellent and he’s over his injuries now. Doesn’t deserve to be on that list.

My point is you don’t just get automatic input from top 10 picks (which seems to be the premise of almost every poster in these threads).

“What we need” “where we’re lacking depth” and so on. That’s why I reckon clubs should be recruiting the best young player available with each pick UNLESS it’s a 21-24 year old from the state leagues who is physically capable of slotting straight in and not fatiguing.

If you want immediate quality impact, trade in mature players with 50-100 games under their belt. Don’t rely on a top 10 pick to be your club’s saviour.

Hope Scharenberg finally gets a clear run at it - after 4 injury plagued years and only 14 senior games.

 

[Apex36]

My point is you don’t just get automatic input from top 10 picks (which seems to be the premise of almost every poster in these threads).

“What we need” “where we’re lacking depth” and so on. That’s why I reckon clubs should be recruiting the best young player available with each pick UNLESS it’s a 21-24 year old from the state leagues who is physically capable of slotting straight in and not fatiguing.

If you want immediate quality impact, trade in mature players with 50-100 games under their belt. Don’t rely on a top 10 pick to be your club’s saviour.

Hope Scharenberg finally gets a clear run at it - after 4 injury plagued years and only 14 senior games.

*3 injury plagued years. Was fully fit this year and played 10 senior games. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with a full preseason under his belt.

 

[BPikkers]

Conversely, if they suffer injuries or aren’t willing/able to develop properly in their AFL environment, they could become another Toumpas, O’Rourke, Hoskin-Elliott, Scharenberg, Aish, Freeman, McCartin, Ahern, Schache, Francis, etc.

I thought that’s what KM was saying.

 

[Dont_Argue]

Hi KM any chance bonar slips to the tiges first pick?

 

[Coops93]

SEN have said that Dow is firming as no.1, how will that change the top 5 picks if true?

 

[Tandy]

I hope the cats pick Gryan Miers with our first pick. Or second if he is still there.

 

[BORIS332]

Fogarty would be good, but there won't be any melts. Just like there werent any melts when Aish and Sharenberg went to the pies a few years back and were comfortably overtaken by players the Crows took with much later picks. In 2013 you guys took Sharenberg in the top 10 and we picked Matt Crouch with pick 23. Who's melting now?

Too early to call on Scharenberg for mine. He looked great when he got on the park this year.

 

[BORIS332]

That's OK, enjoy the 2 years he'll be with you...

Reckon you might have this the wrong way around... players generally leave the Crows, not return.

 

[BORIS332]

Uncontracted after 2 years as opposed to Gibbs having 2 years to run on his contract....yeah OK..

Scott Thompson chosen by Melbourne with pick 16 in 2000 traded to Adelaide for Pick 12 in 2004..

Sure, let's go back two decades, because that has so much relevance today...

 

[jet66]

Chances of someone (saints maybe) going early on O'Brien in the top 10? Endurance and skill combination is lethal

 

[HedgeFund]

I thought that’s what KM was saying.

Kinda - and this isn’t to be seen as a strong criticism - BUT the idea of Power Rankings and so on amuses me. It appears to be predicated in the idea of which player is playing the best, right now (hence the shift throughout the year).

Then when we talk about which players should become great at AFL level, there’s a bit of a “rider” (injury and development). Now we all agree with injury (duh), but the issue of development intrigues me.

Isn’t it the responsibility of the player to be coachable and capable of development?