Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

They might want brown on a wing

That's another optional usage. Sure.

 

[botts]

Km. Stoked with the saints hall. NWM looks like he has so much class. His delivery into king for the next 10 years is something we can get excited about. Also looks like we nail our ngas. Could also be a massive chance to trade back in for a player knowing that the boys will probably slide now. Big win for the saints.

 

[Swiggy]

KM what do you feel freo will do with 21? Will they take Johnson goater or Sonise or trade it?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Knightmare congratulations on your Phantom Draft outcome (so far) .....big calls on Sheldrick and Chesser that received some interesting responses

I can understand you rating Sheldrick in your Power Rankings but not your Phantom ....as the Phantom is where you think Clubs will choose players

Good work in a tough year

 

[LukeParkerno1]

KM what do you feel freo will do with 21? Will they take Johnson goater or Sonise or trade it?

You'd think with how the draft has gone you keep it unless there is a Kings Ransom paid

 

[Knightmare]

Km. Stoked with the saints hall. NWM looks like he has so much class. His delivery into king for the next 10 years is something we can get excited about. Also looks like we nail our ngas. Could also be a massive chance to trade back in for a player knowing that the boys will probably slide now. Big win for the saints.

I wasn't sure the conservative Saints would take an interstate talent so early, but they did their due diligence and found that he's comfortable being interstate.

Saints will now secure the two NGAs no issue.

KM what do you feel freo will do with 21? Will they take Johnson goater or Sonise or trade it?

Warner could even be on that shortlist as Fremantle would have liked someone outside. But with Johnson there, I think he's the choice.

Knightmare congratulations on your Phantom Draft outcome (so far) .....big calls on Sheldrick and Chesser that received some interesting responses

I can understand you rating Sheldrick in your Power Rankings but not your Phantom ....as the Phantom is where you think Clubs will choose players

Good work in a tough year

Sheldrick I had no inkling would go first round. Not a scenario, as with Alleer I had considered. I didn't believe in the industry there would be clubs who would rate either nearly as highly as I did as certainly no one I had spoken to shared my enthusiasm to the same degree for either.

Chesser I expected would go first round for a while now, and the talk on draft day was West Coast would likely trade back a few picks and get him. It won't be the first or last time I haven't included someone in my power rankings to go this high or higher. Top of mind, I called Lucas Cook as a pick 12 to Melbourne in 2010 as someone I wouldn't have drafted either.

Ultimately, there is always going to be a good degree of separation between my power rankings and where guys go because I don't worry myself with where clubs rate particular players for the purpose of my power rankings, I'm ultimately trying to look at who clubs rate that I don't rate as highly as well as players they may not rate that I do.

 

[BORIS332]

Half of the picks among those next 10 probably get traded, but those from my phantom yet to get picked are among those most likely. Johnson, Howes, Goater, Motlop, Butler, Sonsie, Knevitt, Owens, Draper and Fahey in no particular order shouldn't last long.

KM, have you gone off Matt Roberts? And where does Zac Taylor fit in?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, have you gone off Matt Roberts? And where does Zac Taylor fit in?

Roberts from the second round I'd be comfortable selecting. He was 21 if I recall correctly in my extended power rankings for November. But I have cooled after a disappointing close to the season and in particular U19 Champs where he was really a non-factor. In this draft I have Roberts 30+ coming into consideration, but with so many capable midfielders in this draft, I think he goes later rather than earlier.

Zac Taylor I really like and have high in my power rankings. He shouldn't last much longer. Maybe a Sydney or someone else trades into the next few picks to secure him, but otherwise he might go in the next 5-15 picks is my best guess.

 

[M Malice]

Hi Knightmare , haven't seen much about Kai Lohmann from you, what are your thoughts on him? Strengths/weaknesses/plays like?

FWIW I was at a Lions draft function last night and pre the draft a recruiter was saying they had Wilmot at 11 and Lohmann at 14 on their board so we got exactly who they wanted. Also said they go best available for list needs..... not purely best available, reason being they don't want to be too stocked up on 1 type of player.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare , haven't seen much about Kai Lohmann from you, what are your thoughts on him? Strengths/weaknesses/plays like?

FWIW I was at a Lions draft function last night and pre the draft a recruiter was saying they had Wilmot at 11 and Lohmann at 14 on their board so we got exactly who they wanted. Also said they go best available for list needs..... not purely best available, reason being they don't want to be too stocked up on 1 type of player.

Have profiled Lohmann and others in my draft review (see next post). If any more specific questions on Lohmann beyond what I have to say in the piece though, ask away.

Interesting re. where Brisbane rated them both.

 

[Knightmare]

My first round 2021 AFL draft review including detailed pick and player thoughts as well as who I would have selected with each pick if I were the selector:

Pick 1, North Melbourne: Jason Horne-Francis
Doerre's Power Rankings: 1
Doerre says: Horne-Francis will greatly complement North Melbourne's list. They've added an influential difference maker who, both through the midfield and up forward, can change the complexion of games with his relentless pressure, tackling and how he imposes himself on games. Often winning the ball on the move at speed and proving difficult to contain aerially, one-on-one and at ground level inside 50, Horne-Francis is worthy of the pick one tag. Given North Melbourne's current strength and depth in the midfield, we can expect to see Horne-Francis to start his career across half-forward with some moments through the midfield and closer to goal as favourable matchups arise in games. A Round 1 debut is the expectation.
If I was North Melbourne list manager: No trade offer would sway me at this point. Jason Horne-Francis is the right pick as the best prospect in the draft. The addition of the. explosive South Australian from a marketing perspective will generate excitement, but as one of those players who influences winning in such a diverse number of ways, it's equally important of a play for North Melbourne's long term list build.

Point of discussion: Interested to hear if others agree with my thoughts broadly speaking that the best way to draft this year was to take the best midfielder available early and address other list needs with later picks so as to maximise the quality coming in.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...draft-************-espn-reviewing-first-round

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

My first round 2021 AFL draft review including detailed pick and player thoughts as well as who I would have selected with each pick if I were the selector:



Point of discussion: Interested to hear if others agree with my thoughts broadly speaking that the best way to draft this year was to take the best midfielder available early and address other list needs with later picks so as to maximise the quality coming in.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...draft-************-espn-reviewing-first-round

The Matt Johnson slide really threw you haha. Last 15 picks are “Matt Johnson should have been here”

 

[BORIS332]

KM, is Curtis Taylor

5

Curtis Taylor

Age

24

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

a fair comparison for Arlo Draper?

 

[KissKiss]

I get why you are saying that about Johnson but it does read very repetitively. Maybe should have put more emphasis on the alternatives or matching the types of players they went for. Clearly not everyone wanted a mid like Johnson so position needs should be taken into account - ie Freo and Richmond wanted a tall at least

 

[Knightmare]

The Matt Johnson slide really threw you haha. Last 15 picks are “Matt Johnson should have been here”

I see it as being equivalent to wanting to buy something and the price keeps dropping.

Maybe it's a stock. Maybe Tesla is normally priced at $1000 but you can buy at $500. The more that price dips, from $900, to $800, to $700, if you're an investor, the more excited you should be getting if you fundamentally continue to have the same view of that company and liked the valuation at $1000.

The concept is the very same with footballers. If you feel that footballer is the best available player at a given pick, if they keep getting overlooked, in that same way, you should really be getting more and more excited by the value proposition represented.

KM, is Curtis Taylor a fair comparison for Arlo Draper?

Draper is the more skilful and has more tricks.

Draper with good development may be able to become something like a Robbie Gray.

As a more direct player comparison, he's something like a Tim Broomhead if you ever saw much of him, though hopefully he has a better injury run than Broomhead so that he can have a longer and stronger career.

I get why you are saying that about Johnson but it does read very repetitively. Maybe should have put more emphasis on the alternatives or matching the types of players they went for. Clearly not everyone wanted a mid like Johnson so position needs should be taken into account - ie Freo and Richmond wanted a tall at least

As well as listing who I felt would be the best available at a given pick, I purposely included who I would have taken in each case as alternatives to cover the same list need for those wondering if I'm told by the coach "we need this type", be it positional or stylistic. In each case, while it's using a much later pick and often going for a mature age alternative, that's precisely in each instance how I would address list needs, with the early picks every time needing to be used for the best player.

To provide an example, it's like if you look back at the 2012 draft. Brisbane take Sam Mayes at 8. If you had that pick over, even if Mayes is seen as that necessary needs pick for whatever reason. Wouldn't you in hindsight want a Brodie Grundy instead, even if you just picked up Billy Longer a year earlier? I'd do that every day of the week because fundamentally in that draft at that stage, Grundy was a clear best available pick. And the careers played out showing that.

List needs really should be addressed during the trade and free agency period, but for those occasions where that's doesn't happen, late/rookie is the spot to do that. If it's a first or second round pick, I'm ignoring the position. Give me the best footballer. And even ideally late/rookie I'd more than not like someone who represents superior value where possible.

I do understand your point though. Ultimately though, drafts often go that way with a particular player for a number of successive picks often representing best available value.

So in the cases of Fremantle wanting a key forward - I'd be looking at Keitel or Hammelmann. For a Richmond wanting a key defender, I'd have loved Leek Alleer, but with him going earlier, that would move me later on to a Charlie Dean or if he goes earlier than I'd feel comfortable, Blake Schlensog should be available and could be moved down to very easily.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I see it as being equivalent to wanting to buy something and the price keeps dropping.

Maybe it's a stock. Maybe Tesla is normally priced at $1000 but you can buy at $500. The more that price dips, from $900, to $800, to $700, if you're an investor, the more excited you should be getting if you fundamentally continue to have the same view of that company and liked the valuation at $1000.

The concept is the very same with footballers. If you feel that footballer is the best available player at a given pick, if they keep getting overlooked, in that same way, you should really be getting more and more excited by the value proposition represented.



Draper is the more skilful and has more tricks.

Draper with good development may be able to become something like a Robbie Gray.

As a more direct player comparison, he's something like a Tim Broomhead if you ever saw much of him, though hopefully he has a better injury run than Broomhead so that he can have a longer and stronger career.



As well as listing who I felt would be the best available at a given pick, I purposely included who I would have taken in each case as alternatives to cover the same list need for those wondering if I'm told by the coach "we need this type", be it positional or stylistic. In each case, while it's using a much later pick and often going for a mature age alternative, that's precisely in each instance how I would address list needs, with the early picks every time needing to be used for the best player.

To provide an example, it's like if you look back at the 2012 draft. Brisbane take Sam Mayes at 8. If you had that pick over, even if Mayes is seen as that necessary needs pick for whatever reason. Wouldn't you in hindsight want a Brodie Grundy instead, even if you just picked up Billy Longer a year earlier? I'd do that every day of the week because fundamentally in that draft at that stage, Grundy was a clear best available pick. And the careers played out showing that.

List needs really should be addressed during the trade and free agency period, but for those occasions where that's doesn't happen, late/rookie is the spot to do that. If it's a first or second round pick, I'm ignoring the position. Give me the best footballer. And even ideally late/rookie I'd more than not like someone who represents superior value where possible.

I do understand your point though. Ultimately though, drafts often go that way with a particular player for a number of successive picks often representing best available value.

So in the cases of Fremantle wanting a key forward - I'd be looking at Keitel or Hammelmann. For a Richmond wanting a key defender, I'd have loved Leek Alleer, but with him going earlier, that would move me later on to a Charlie Dean or if he goes earlier than I'd feel comfortable, Blake Schlensog should be available and could be moved down to very easily.

What's your guess tigers take at 28. 29. 30? If they don't trade

7 picks left live some decent players around

Freo
North.
Hawk x2
Gee x2
Carlton

 

[Chris25]

So in the cases of Fremantle wanting a key forward - I'd be looking at Keitel or Hammelmann.

Sorry, but this is ridiculous and there'd be 50,000 members glad you had nothing to do with our drafting. For years now Fremantle has tried to fill the massive key forward sized hole in our list with late picks or through trades. And here we are, still needing a key forward. For some reason I don't think the answer is two guys who'll be lucky to be drafted. We've seen this play out before. And besides, it's not like Jye Amiss is someone you didn't rate - you had him at #16 in your final rankings. Hardly a reach, and someone who definitely would have been gone by our third pick.

Based on your draft review, I assume you'll advocate for us to pick Johnson at #21? So we could have Amiss, Erasmus and Johnson....or we could have had Erasmus, Johnson and Keitel as a late pick. I know what I'd take.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

My first round 2021 AFL draft review including detailed pick and player thoughts as well as who I would have selected with each pick if I were the selector:



Point of discussion: Interested to hear if others agree with my thoughts broadly speaking that the best way to draft this year was to take the best midfielder available early and address other list needs with later picks so as to maximise the quality coming in.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...draft-************-espn-reviewing-first-round

might have been better to try: “having taken Matthew Johnson with pick up 10 I would take xxx at 11”. “Having taken xxx at 11 I would take yyy at 12”…

or take Johnson at 10 (and he’s gone) and take the next player at your next pick. It’s a really messy analysis as others have said.

You are doing exceptionally well as a still young and emerging journo though. Calved yourself a very niche career path and it’s well deserved

 

[troyjones2525]

KM I'm a huge Swans supporter but couldn't hide my disappointment when we drafted Sheldrick which I thought was again a reach with a first rounder...

Then I read your tweets and instantly felt a little better with your comparison to Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

which is something we definitely need!

But then I did a bit of my own research and watch at least the first half of both WA vs SA games that people have raved about with him and my disappointment returned...

I didn't see Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

. He disposal by foot was ordinary at best where Neale is a very good decision maker in traffic with good foot skills. Yes Sheldrick is strong in the contest but look at the size of him weight wise compared to the other kids!

Please tell me you've seen plenty more vision that proves me wrong and he is going to be the 2nd coming of Neale because I really don't want ANOTHER first round Swans bust!

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

 

[Deadly Darcy]

KM I'm a huge Swans supporter but couldn't hide my disappointment when we drafted Sheldrick which I thought was again a reach with a first rounder...

Then I read your tweets and instantly felt a little better with your comparison to Lachie Neale which is something we definitely need!

But then I did a bit of my own research and watch at least the first half of both WA vs SA games that people have raved about with him and my disappointment returned...

I didn't see Lachie Neale. He disposal by foot was ordinary at best where Neale is a very good decision maker in traffic with good foot skills. Yes Sheldrick is strong in the contest but look at the size of him weight wise compared to the other kids!

Please tell me you've seen plenty more vision that proves me wrong and he is going to be the 2nd coming of Neale because I really don't want ANOTHER first round Swans bust!

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Have you blokes still got Simon Dalrymple on the drafting team? If so you’ll be fine! Not sure if he went back to teaching though but got he’s got a good eye for footy talent.

 

[Knightmare]

What's your guess tigers take at 28. 29. 30? If they don't trade

7 picks left live some decent players around

Freo
North.
Hawk x2
Gee x2
Carlton

I'm of the belief at least one if not multiple of those picks move.

If held, I'm predicting bids on either/or/both of Mitch Owens and Josh Fahey.
As for the picks. Jake Soligo, Judson Clarke and Arlo Draper could be among those considered and could drop around Richmond's picks to give you a few names to keep an ear out for.

Sorry, but this is ridiculous and there'd be 50,000 members glad you had nothing to do with our drafting. For years now Fremantle has tried to fill the massive key forward sized hole in our list with late picks or through trades. And here we are, still needing a key forward. For some reason I don't think the answer is two guys who'll be lucky to be drafted. We've seen this play out before. And besides, it's not like Jye Amiss is someone you didn't rate - you had him at #16 in your final rankings. Hardly a reach, and someone who definitely would have been gone by our third pick.

Based on your draft review, I assume you'll advocate for us to pick Johnson at #21? So we could have Amiss, Erasmus and Johnson....or we could have had Erasmus, Johnson and Keitel as a late pick. I know what I'd take.

For the record, I don't believe Keitel or Hammelmann will get drafted.

Should they be on AFL lists though? I believe both should be. They're both able key forwards. I could even have listed Jack Hayes as another. There are believe key forwards outside the AFL who I consider to be better than a number of AFL listed key forwards. And watching the state leagues, as I'm more than just a junior talent watcher, I notice the disparity.

People sleep on how good state leaguers are broadly speaking. These guys in Keitel, Hammelmann and Hayes are all depth at worst, best-22 at best.

The next component to address would be whether an early pick is required for a key forward. You would be right if you were to suggest that most good key forwards are drafted early, and that's because that's where for the most part the most talented ones are going. Does that mean you have to use an early pick to get a good key forward though? Just referring to Fremantle, you did well securing both Taberner as a rookie and then last year with Treacy as yet another rookie. I'd happily have both on my list and give them games.

Do teams need great key forwards to be a winning team? They're nice to have, but I wouldn't say so. Melbourne just won a premiership with a largely unwanted combo before the year started in Tom McDonald who Melbourne actively and Ben Brown who wasn't in hot demand last offseason. Those guys weren't first round picks. McDonald was a late pick and Brown was picked as a mature ager all those years after he should have been picked in the first place and went mid draft.

Is Amiss the 8th most talented or better in this draft?

Could there be a better alternative next offseason? Could there be an option who represents value superior to where they're selected? I find most years there are at least based on my own rankings.

As things stand for Fremantle, I'd be taking the pick and taking Johnson. Had I gone as I did in my piece, suggesting I would have taken Erasmus and Johnson (not expecting Johnson to make it to that third pick), Zac Taylor would have been that next player I would have selected.

With Fremantle likely to use four selections, Keitel would have been fine late draft. He's one of those you ideally take with your last rookie pick knowing he'd be there, but for clubs without a rookie pick, and I haven't done a count to check whether Fremantle will have any rookie spots available, but if not, he's fine to take with that last pick as someone I'd happily give a two year deal to. Likewise Hammelmann.

KM I'm a huge Swans supporter but couldn't hide my disappointment when we drafted Sheldrick which I thought was again a reach with a first rounder...

Then I read your tweets and instantly felt a little better with your comparison to Lachie Neale which is something we definitely need!

But then I did a bit of my own research and watch at least the first half of both WA vs SA games that people have raved about with him and my disappointment returned...

I didn't see Lachie Neale. He disposal by foot was ordinary at best where Neale is a very good decision maker in traffic with good foot skills. Yes Sheldrick is strong in the contest but look at the size of him weight wise compared to the other kids!

Please tell me you've seen plenty more vision that proves me wrong and he is going to be the 2nd coming of Neale because I really don't want ANOTHER first round Swans bust!

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

I have a whole series of tweets on Sheldrick which should fill you with confidence. I've got a great deal of confidence in his game. He is strong in exactly the areas of the game needed to convert his play to AFL level and I'd be surprised if he doesn't outperform his draft position in time.

By foot and as a decision maker, that's where Sheldrick is weak. That's why he's not even higher. That's what's missing.

You can have a strong and advanced body as a junior and still be great at AFL level. Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Oliver Wines and Daniel Rich to name a few top of mind. What's great with Sheldrick is, even though he is that stronger body. He does have acceleration and does use it frequently. He'll win it at speed, burst away from stoppages, he can receive on the move at speed. Having that burst of speed as a weapon beyond all the contested stuff, it's one of those where you go back to first principles and he ticks those boxes. Has the contested side (most contested possessions during the champs) but then also has that good burst over short distance. He's a ball of power.

If you want to see Sheldrick for yourself and watch one game. The game I'd refer you to is the first game of the u19 Champs where WA take on SA. Sheldrick had Horne-Francis at stoppages for a lot of the first half. Watch how little Horne-Francis could do when they were both there together and how much better Sheldrick looked.

Sheldrick is one of my higher confidence picks this year. As per my tweets, it's a pick even though he wasn't my #1 best available, I like the value he represented nonetheless and love the way he impacts games.

might have been better to try: “having taken Matthew Johnson with pick up 10 I would take xxx at 11”. “Having taken xxx at 11 I would take yyy at 12”…

or take Johnson at 10 (and he’s gone) and take the next player at your next pick. It’s a really messy analysis as others have said.

You are doing exceptionally well as a still young and emerging journo though. Calved yourself a very niche career path and it’s well deserved

Fair call. Thanks for the feedback.

And thanks for the kind words.

Ultimately it's the insight and general learnings I want to pass on. Give people the information where they can visualise precisely how the guy they picked plays, as well as getting into a bit of depth as to how to make the best use of a given draft pick and how going with a needs focus early draft often isn't necessary, nor the best route.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

I'm of the belief at least one if not multiple of those picks move.

If held, I'm predicting bids on either/or/both of Mitch Owens and Josh Fahey.
As for the picks. Jake Soligo, Judson Clarke and Arlo Draper could be among those considered and could drop around Richmond's picks to give you a few names to keep an ear out for.



For the record, I don't believe Keitel or Hammelmann will get drafted.

Should they be on AFL lists though? I believe both should be. They're both able key forwards. I could even have listed Jack Hayes as another. There are believe key forwards outside the AFL who I consider to be better than a number of AFL listed key forwards. And watching the state leagues, as I'm more than just a junior talent watcher, I notice the disparity.

People sleep on how good state leaguers are broadly speaking. These guys in Keitel, Hammelmann and Hayes are all depth at worst, best-22 at best.

The next component to address would be whether an early pick is required for a key forward. You would be right if you were to suggest that most good key forwards are drafted early, and that's because that's where for the most part the most talented ones are going. Does that mean you have to use an early pick to get a good key forward though? Just referring to Fremantle, you did well securing both Taberner as a rookie and then last year with Treacy as yet another rookie. I'd happily have both on my list and give them games.

Do teams need great key forwards to be a winning team? They're nice to have, but I wouldn't say so. Melbourne just won a premiership with a largely unwanted combo before the year started in Tom McDonald who Melbourne actively and Ben Brown who wasn't in hot demand last offseason. Those guys weren't first round picks. McDonald was a late pick and Brown was picked as a mature ager all those years after he should have been picked in the first place and went mid draft.

Is Amiss the 8th most talented or better in this draft?

Could there be a better alternative next offseason? Could there be an option who represents value superior to where they're selected? I find most years there are at least based on my own rankings.

As things stand for Fremantle, I'd be taking the pick and taking Johnson. Had I gone as I did in my piece, suggesting I would have taken Erasmus and Johnson (not expecting Johnson to make it to that third pick), Zac Taylor would have been that next player I would have selected.

With Fremantle likely to use four selections, Keitel would have been fine late draft. He's one of those you ideally take with your last rookie pick knowing he'd be there, but for clubs without a rookie pick, and I haven't done a count to check whether Fremantle will have any rookie spots available, but if not, he's fine to take with that last pick as someone I'd happily give a two year deal to. Likewise Hammelmann.



I have a whole series of tweets on Sheldrick which should fill you with confidence. I've got a great deal of confidence in his game. He is strong in exactly the areas of the game needed to convert his play to AFL level and I'd be surprised if he doesn't outperform his draft position in time.

By foot and as a decision maker, that's where Sheldrick is weak. That's why he's not even higher. That's what's missing.

You can have a strong and advanced body as a junior and still be great at AFL level. Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Oliver Wines and Daniel Rich to name a few top of mind. What's great with Sheldrick is, even though he is that stronger body. He does have acceleration and does use it frequently. He'll win it at speed, burst away from stoppages, he can receive on the move at speed. Having that burst of speed as a weapon beyond all the contested stuff, it's one of those where you go back to first principles and he ticks those boxes. Has the contested side (most contested possessions during the champs) but then also has that good burst over short distance. He's a ball of power.

If you want to see Sheldrick for yourself and watch one game. The game I'd refer you to is the first game of the u19 Champs where WA take on SA. Sheldrick had Horne-Francis at stoppages for a lot of the first half. Watch how little Horne-Francis could do when they were both there together and how much better Sheldrick looked.

Sheldrick is one of my higher confidence picks this year. As per my tweets, it's a pick even though he wasn't my #1 best available, I like the value he represented nonetheless and love the way he impacts games.



Fair call. Thanks for the feedback.

And thanks for the kind words.

Ultimately it's the insight and general learnings I want to pass on. Give people the information where they can visualise precisely how the guy they picked plays, as well as getting into a bit of depth as to how to make the best use of a given draft pick and how going with a needs focus early draft often isn't necessary, nor the best route.

Great example of state league players is Brodie Mihocek. Passed over in his draft year (can’t remember why - maybe attitude?) and left to develop for years. Been a gun pick up for the pies in his mid-late 20’s. Arguably should have played AFL earlier than given the chance.

 

[Knightmare]

Great example of state league players is Brodie Mihocek. Passed over in his draft year (can’t remember why - maybe attitude?) and left to develop for years. Been a gun pick up for the pies in his mid-late 20’s. Arguably should have played AFL earlier than given the chance.

Mihocek indeed did. And again. Rookied. James Podsiadly also once upon a time did.

When Mihocek was drafted, he was to my eye test at least no better than Keitel. If you asked me one or the other who I would have favoured, I would have said I slightly preferred Keitel but had them both in the same conversation at the time of that draft. And Keitel continues to get better and had an exceptional season for those who take the time to watch WAFL League football.

Keitel and Hammelmann both I could make a case are better today than Mihocek was when he was drafted.

Why don't they appeal to clubs? Age and age demographics.

Clubs need to get past that and focus more on bringing in footballers who improve your best-22 and improve your list. When it comes to mature agers 25+, clubs have a blind spot to them. It's like they don't exist. They're almost never drafted in any capacity (Marlion Pickett is a rare exception and it took until a mid-season draft for him to get picked after years of being worth picking).

An all-star team involving state leaguers aged 24+ could be created and if they had a year together to play alongside one another, learnt each others tendencies and how to play together, I wouldn't overlook, I could see that kind of group under those conditions if giving AFL training and coaching being competitive with one of the lower placed AFL squads. There wouldn't be that star power, but there would with good player selection be a very solid and deep best-22 with all spots well covered, without needing necessarily the weak links you find on most AFL teams.

 

[Skippos]

Hi mate, just dropping by - have dished out some stick in the past but I think your rankings were excellent this year. Clearly moved away from the dreaded groupthink further and in doing so, probably got closer to the mark (and, ironically, I reckon you shape the groupthink in 'supporter-land').

Good stuff, an entertaining follow all year.

 

[Davo-27]

Hi Knightmare , haven't seen much about Kai Lohmann from you, what are your thoughts on him? Strengths/weaknesses/plays like?

FWIW I was at a Lions draft function last night and pre the draft a recruiter was saying they had Wilmot at 11 and Lohmann at 14 on their board so we got exactly who they wanted. Also said they go best available for list needs..... not purely best available, reason being they don't want to be too stocked up on 1 type of player.

Wilmot im not surprised, love how he plays, but that is a bit high on Lohmann imo, they must be fans of his.