Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare think Knevitt would be a great list fit for us. Any chance he is there around late 20s/early 30s, where we trade back into the draft?

Knevitt could be a suitable fit for the Pies. Unlikely he makes it into the late 20s/early 30s. I think he goes early 2nd round. But it's an open enough range where it's not out of the question, so you have him on the draft board just in case he does slide unexpectedly, as there likely will be a few mids who do.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare think Knevitt would be a great list fit for us. Any chance he is there around late 20s/early 30s, where we trade back into the draft?

Also, with Alleer potentially being out of each, we are rumoured to be linked to Charlie Dean.

How high is Charlie Dean's upside in your opinion? Does he have the potential to become an above average AFL defender? I'm seeing a lot Sam Taylor in him, what are his greatest weaknesses that are driving recruiter away?

Dean is a possible for the Pies, as one who could go around the Pies range, but the risk is there will be a number of teams who like him. Capable key defender and a choice I wouldn't mind. If he can become Sam Taylor that would be fantastic, though I'm not expecting that kind of ceiling. Dean isn't super tall, super strong or super athletic, but he's a capable mark who can intercept, uses the footy very neatly and negates the influence of his direct opponent. He could be a possible best-22 player with a year or two to develop, but I don't project he ever becomes a star, or I'd be talking about him as someone inside my top-20 power rankings.

 

[Prochard123]

Dean is a possible for the Pies, as one who could go around the Pies range, but the risk is there will be a number of teams who like him. Capable key defender and a choice I wouldn't mind. If he can become Sam Taylor that would be fantastic, though I'm not expecting that kind of ceiling. Dean isn't super tall, super strong or super athletic, but he's a capable mark who can intercept, uses the footy very neatly and negates the influence of his direct opponent. He could be a possible best-22 player with a year or two to develop, but I don't project he ever becomes a star, or I'd be talking about him as someone inside my top-20 power rankings.

This sounds exactly like Sam Taylor no?

Ultimately I think he could play a similar role for us as um... I forgot what his name was - ah yes Jack Madgen (actually prefer not to remember his name tbh...).

Play on the opposition's 3rd tall early on, rotate with Moore for that intercepting role depending on match up, with the eventual goal of replacing Roughhead in the team.

 

[Knightmare]

This sounds exactly like Sam Taylor no?

Ultimately I think he could play a similar role for us as um... I forgot what his name was - ah yes Jack Madgen (actually prefer not to remember his name tbh...).

Play on the opposition's 3rd tall early on, rotate with Moore for that intercepting role depending on match up, with the eventual goal of replacing Roughhead in the team.

Could be a similar role, albeit Taylor is definitely bigger and stronger, a much better intercepter (though maybe with more time in defence Dean can continue to improve those parts to his game) and also a contested beast who wins a lot contested v Dean who can win some, but will be more balanced and perhaps be used a little more by foot.

Dean could play on 3rd talls early on. That's possible, and in that role, he could be viable for games in 2022.

In any case, would be a solid get for the Pies if chosen. And I'd say the same of Schlensog, albeit for different reasons, though I haven't heard any Schlensog connection to Pies unfortunately.

 

[Prochard123]

Could be a similar role, albeit Taylor is definitely bigger and stronger, a much better intercepter (though maybe with more time in defence Dean can continue to improve those parts to his game) and also a contested beast who wins a lot contested v Dean who can win some, but will be more balanced and perhaps be used a little more by foot.

Dean could play on 3rd talls early on. That's possible, and in that role, he could be viable for games in 2022.

In any case, would be a solid get for the Pies if chosen. And I'd say the same of Schlensog, albeit for different reasons, though I haven't heard any Schlensog connection to Pies unfortunately.

Taylor
196 cm
93kg

Dean
195 cm
86 kg

Think Dean will eventually develop into an almost identical size as Taylor after putting on some muscle during the off-season, but definitely agree that Dean is one of the better options around our pick range - and a realistic chance of becoming an AFL standard footballer.

 

[Knightmare]

Taylor
196 cm
93kg

Dean
195 cm
86 kg

Think Dean will eventually develop into an almost identical size as Taylor after putting on some muscle during the off-season, but definitely agree that Dean is one of the better options around our pick range - and a realistic chance of becoming an AFL standard footballer.

I've seen Taylor listed at 96kg this year, so those may be outdated measurements.

The mature age key defenders are the ones to go for. That's where the value is this year. I'm expecting clubs recognise it too given the lack of great junior key position players this year.

 

[The Kings Ransom]

Final ESPN AFL Draft podcast of the year:

Quick early phantom yesterday afternoons podcast:
1. NM = Horne-Francis
2. WBD = Darcy
3. Coll = Daicos (will this remain the same for my final phantom?)
4. GWS = Callaghan
5. GC = Andrew

Point of discussion: Jake and Matt also loved the Hugh Greenwood addition by North Melbourne. Of all the midfielders to appear for the Suns, at the peak of their powers, was Greenwood a top-6 midfielder in their club history?

@ESPNFootyPod | Linktree

Join ESPN's Matt Walsh and Jake Michaels as they discuss the AFL's hot topics.

linktr.ee

For my final phantom draft. Stay tuned.

Greenwood, maybe.
Ablett, Miller, bennell
Then Prestia, swallow, richitelli, omertà group y

 

[Knightmare]

Greenwood, maybe.
Ablett, Miller, bennell
Then Prestia, swallow, richitelli, omertà group y

I've got Ablett in a tier of his own.

With Lyons, Miller, Prestia, Hall and Bennell in that next group with Greenwood.

Swallow, O'Meara and Rischitelli I'd have in that third group, ultimately for me at least with the Suns not having that same height of peak performance.

 

[buttox]

In a completely objective sense it's not a question though of who you rate more, it should be a question of how do you benefit your team the most.

That is by making the Dogs and Pies pay full freight given they will both match wherever the bid comes in. Really North should bid on both. Though understand the other factors that come into play such as the selling point of marketing a no. 1 pick to their members.

We have never had a number 1 pick on our list. (we haven't even traded one in after there draft year)
Its our turn and to waste it out of spite towards the Pies or Dogs would be ridiculous.
This will end up being our 5th win of the year. We don't need to hand it over to another club.
North have done well out of the Pies just recently. Let them have a draft win.

 

[nelk boys]

Josh Misiti or Joey Dimasi any chance of getting drafted, from Calder?

 

[Knightmare]

Josh Misiti or Joey Dimasi any chance of getting drafted, from Calder?

Looking unlikely. Their names haven't come up recently in any capacity that I've heard at least.

 

[dee64]

I've got Ablett in a tier of his own.

With Lyons, Miller, Prestia, Hall and Bennell in that next group with Greenwood.

Swallow, O'Meara and Rischitelli I'd have in that third group, ultimately for me at least with the Suns not having that same height of peak performance.

You massively overrate Greenwood. Swallow, O'Meara and Rischitelli easily outperformed Greenwood at GC. Greenwood didn't finish top 10 in B&F this year. He's a nice pick up by North, but he's hardly a difference maker.

 

[Knightmare]

You massively overrate Greenwood. Swallow, O'Meara and Rischitelli easily outperformed Greenwood at GC. Greenwood didn't finish top 10 in B&F this year. He's a nice pick up by North, but he's hardly a difference maker.

Greenwood played only 15/22 games this season. In 2020, Greenwood finished 4th in the B+F with a full season of games.

What Greenwood does, he's elite at. And he's elite at the most essential components towards impact games as a midfielder. Being that first possession winning, but then as that secondary function he brings the pressure and tackles to an elite level - essential ingredients if you want to set up intercept marks and score off of the turnover. He's one of those unique cases of being a specialist, but specialising in what's at least in my view most important towards winning.

There isn't anything elite about Swallow, O'Meara or Rischitelli. For sure they're much less flawed players and have the more complete games, but on impact? I've got Greenwood, and with separation.

 

[Prochard123]

Hi Knightmare, any plans of doing a live stream for your draft reactions maybe on Twitch?

Think you will get a good return on your time.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, any plans of doing a live stream for your draft reactions maybe on Twitch?

Think you will get a good return on your time.

I'll be live tweeting so make sure you're following @AFLDraftExpert

My first round draft review will be on ESPN tomorrow morning, then Friday morning my full draft review will be on ESPN.

Having early starts for work and needing to be up at 7am, as I'll be up until 4-5am writing up my draft reviews, completing a live stream as well as everything I'm doing already isn't realistic, as I'm pushing my body operating off not enough sleep for the next few days as is.

 

[Callipygian]

Well done KM! Both your men Alleer and Sheldrick 'surprises' going in the first round.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Do you rate Tom brown?

 

[Wild Bill]

Greenwood played only 15/22 games this season. In 2020, Greenwood finished 4th in the B+F with a full season of games.

What Greenwood does, he's elite at. And he's elite at the most essential components towards impact games as a midfielder. Being that first possession winning, but then as that secondary function he brings the pressure and tackles to an elite level - essential ingredients if you want to set up intercept marks and score off of the turnover. He's one of those unique cases of being a specialist, but specialising in what's at least in my view most important towards winning.

There isn't anything elite about Swallow, O'Meara or Rischitelli. For sure they're much less flawed players and have the more complete games, but on impact? I've got Greenwood, and with separation.

Who should the Roos pick with 2 in the 2nd round? Johnson most likely to Freo.

 

[BlueMaster1]

Hey Knightmare what would be your next 10 picks for tommorow night

 

[Knightmare]

Well done KM! Both your men Alleer and Sheldrick 'surprises' going in the first round.

I almost fell out of my chair twice with those two going first round. They're two picks that just make me smile ultimately seeing go that early. I can't say I predicted it, but both on talent are thoroughly deserving.

Do you rate Tom brown?

I don't regard Brown a top-20 talent in this draft at this stage, but he is on my extended draft board.

Who should the Roos pick with 2 in the 2nd round? Johnson most likely to Freo.

Johnson and Taylor are the two most highly rated remaining on my board. Arlo Draper is another good one, and possibly for North Melbourne might be the more appropriate list fit of the three as he doesn't have to play through the midfield.

The most likely though I still believe to be Motlop.

Hey Knightmare what would be your next 10 picks for tommorow night

Half of the picks among those next 10 probably get traded, but those from my phantom yet to get picked are among those most likely. Johnson, Howes, Goater, Motlop, Butler, Sonsie, Knevitt, Owens, Draper and Fahey in no particular order shouldn't last long.

 

[Wce17]

KM what are your thoughts on the eagles trading down for and extra pick and still getting chesser? Are you surprised they didn't go Johnson?

 

[Knightmare]

KM what are your thoughts on the eagles trading down for and extra pick and still getting chesser? Are you surprised they didn't go Johnson?

On Twitter pre-draft I made mentioned that the move by West Coast down to secure Chesser was one that might happen:

I've made this link before with West Coast, but they like their guys who have performed in the younger age groups. Chesser has that behind him, and that's something West Coast love. And with a need for outside run and speed, Chesser was ultimately West Coast's preferred option based on those available to them at their pick.

 

[Wce17]

On Twitter pre-draft I made mentioned that the move by West Coast down to secure Chesser was one that might happen:

I've made this link before with West Coast, but they like their guys who have performed in the younger age groups. Chesser has that behind him, and that's something West Coast love. And with a need for outside run and speed, Chesser was ultimately West Coast's preferred option based on those available to them at their pick.

I'm hoping we can trade up the order and maybe snag a Goater, Draper or Johnson. Think Chesser paired with one of those would be a good start to the draft.

Why do you think Johnson slid?

 

[Knightmare]

I'm hoping we can trade up the order and maybe snag a Goater, Draper or Johnson. Think Chesser paired with one of those would be a good start to the draft.

Why do you think Johnson slid?

Johnson slid because he wasn't deemed at any one pick the best available player.

There were teams that had him shortlist for a good number of picks there.

That's the way it goes sometimes. Had the order gone differently, Johnson may well have been taken by now.

My thinking was he would go no further than Richmond, but not so, they wanted a rebounding defender to replace Houli as a higher priority.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Johnson slid because he wasn't deemed at any one pick the best available player.

There were teams that had him shortlist for a good number of picks there.

That's the way it goes sometimes. Had the order gone differently, Johnson may well have been taken by now.

My thinking was he would go no further than Richmond, but not so, they wanted a rebounding defender to replace Houli as a higher priority.

They might want brown on a wing