Ladder predictions for 2010

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

West Coast To Make Top 8 - Can get odds of $3.50 - $3.80 which is a bargain. Without a favourable NAB Cup draw you could get them for $4 or more after Round 1, playing Brisbane at the Gabba won't be a pretty sight for them.

I was thinking along the same lines about the Eagles making the 8 and waiting until after the Brisbane game but the risk is in the fact that we play the GABBA very well.

I have to say though, even with that in mind I'm waiting until after round 1 to punt on us for the 8..

 

[Donakebab]

Hawks 80
Geelong 76
Saints 72
Brisbane 72
Adelaide 68
Doggies 56
Eagles 56
Collingwood 52

Port Adel 32
Richmond 28
Fremantle 28
Sydney 24
North 24
Carlton 20
Essendon 8
Melbourne 8


Hawks to have a decent run with injuries, Geelong to have their last chace at a premiership before sliding next year.

Top 8 will be sealed by about Round 18.

I know my ladder seems quite predictable but I've gone through the season, game by game and I came up with this.

2011 will show a TOTALLY different ladder. Doggies, Geelong and possibly Brisbane down to 7-12 position. West Coast, Port, Freo, North and Carlton all realistic chances for Top 8, 1 of them to make Top 4.

Essendon to only win 2 games all year? I'm guessing you are red/yellow colour blind.

 

[jimbob7085]

Essendon to only win 2 games all year? I'm guessing you are red/yellow colour blind.

Even using a points system of...
4 - definite win
3 - probable win
2 - 50/50 chance
1 - probable loss
0 - definite loss

I still had them only 15th, I do think I've underrated Essendon but people are underrating Richmond a bit. Essendon's midfield is decent, defence is decent but your forward line could break down very easily. Can't resist them for the spoon at $17, with a chance to maybe hedge Round 20 onwards.

Richmond's midfield as with Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas should win us at least 5-6 wins. Our Defense is a bit suspect but hopefully it can hold together. If we have a relatively good run of injuries I could guarantee you we won't finish last. If we lose a few key players I could see us down near the bottom once again.

@ Jimmy The Gent...If the Eagles have a few easy games in the NAB Cup they will shorten, which would mean by round 1 they'd be around the same price as pre-NAB Cup. I could see you keeping Brisbane to a 4-6 goal margin if you can keep one of Fev/Brown quiet. Otherwise I think you'll be belted.

 

[Donakebab]

Even using a points system of...
4 - definite win
3 - probable win
2 - 50/50 chance
1 - probable loss
0 - definite loss

I still had them only 15th, I do think I've underrated Essendon but people are underrating Richmond a bit. Essendon's midfield is decent, defence is decent but your forward line could break down very easily. Can't resist them for the spoon at $17, with a chance to maybe hedge Round 20 onwards.

Richmond's midfield as with Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas should win us at least 5-6 wins. Our Defense is a bit suspect but hopefully it can hold together. If we have a relatively good run of injuries I could guarantee you we won't finish last. If we lose a few key players I could see us down near the bottom once again.

@ Jimmy The Gent...If the Eagles have a few easy games in the NAB Cup they will shorten, which would mean by round 1 they'd be around the same price as pre-NAB Cup. I could see you keeping Brisbane to a 4-6 goal margin if you can keep one of Fev/Brown quiet. Otherwise I think you'll be belted.

1. No game is ever a definite loss, so your whole 0-4 flawless theory system goes out the window there.
2. You're claiming a forward line that is made up of 103 games experience is a lock to get you 5-6 wins, yet Essendon's is going to fall over? This makes sense how? Losing old forwards who the game has passed isn't exactly going to crush us.
3. Any team that has a good run with injuries shouldn't finish last. Everyone know's that.
4. With the absolutely massive list turn over that has just taken place at Richmond, you'll be lucky to win a handful of games.
5. Essendon's injury list is tiny going through this pre season, so yougsters who missed the last pre season or two are getting this one under their belt, along with well seasoned players being injury free. It's madness to say that with a stronger list in 2010 they will only win 2 games.

 

[EaglesFlyingHigh]

I've noticed a few people say that Fremantle have no heart
[youtube]WRT9JVGFEzA[/youtube]

Can You Feel the PASSION?
And trust me. The addition of 23 draftees in just 13 months has doubled the teams heart.

Hate the Dockers but still regard that as one of the best games I have seen live.

 

[EaglesFlyingHigh]

Geelong
St Kilda
Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Collingwood
Brisbane
Carlton
West Coast
------------------
Hawthon
Essendon
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Richmond
Melbourne

 

[jimbob7085]

1. No game is ever a definite loss, so your whole 0-4 flawless theory system goes out the window there.
2. You're claiming a forward line that is made up of 103 games experience is a lock to get you 5-6 wins, yet Essendon's is going to fall over? This makes sense how? Losing old forwards who the game has passed isn't exactly going to crush us.
3. Any team that has a good run with injuries shouldn't finish last. Everyone know's that.
4. With the absolutely massive list turn over that has just taken place at Richmond, you'll be lucky to win a handful of games.
5. Essendon's injury list is tiny going through this pre season, so yougsters who missed the last pre season or two are getting this one under their belt, along with well seasoned players being injury free. It's madness to say that with a stronger list in 2010 they will only win 2 games.

Would you feel safe giving geelong a definite win against Melbourne at Skilled? How about Saints against Richmond?...Thise games are what I call definite wins.

If you read properly I said our midfield which includes cousins, deledio, foley, tambling as well as riewoldt, morton and nahas should win us 5-6 games. Cotchin and martin could also make an impact. You can't seriously tell me me couldn't realistically get 5-6 wins with that?

We got rid of Pettifer, JON, Hughes, Putt, Pattison, Coughlan, Brown and Bowden. Majority of the above did stuff all this season, or just played because they were Wallace's love child (Bowden). We gave the choice to Richo of retiring or playing on but his body couldn't hold up. He will clearly be sorely missed.

Lloyd and Lucas, I agree did next to nothing the whole year but your Recruiting staff seem to think you need a forward when they recruited mark williams. Gumbleton seems to be going along nicely but if he re-injures himself again your gunna need Neagle, or another one of your young KPPs to fill in. You couldn't seriously think having Neagle and Williams as KPP forwards would be up to standard?

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

@ Jimmy The Gent...If the Eagles have a few easy games in the NAB Cup they will shorten, which would mean by round 1 they'd be around the same price as pre-NAB Cup. I could see you keeping Brisbane to a 4-6 goal margin if you can keep one of Fev/Brown quiet. Otherwise I think you'll be belted.

Well, you'll be interest you to find out that historically, or least more recenly, we've bombed out of the NAB cup early because we've played our rawest youngsters. I imagine that continues and we find ourselves out early (I think Worsfold prefers not be seen on telly pre-season but that's only a theory)..

Also, with Brisbane, Glass can't handle Fevola at all. Probably the player who's kicked most goals on Glass. That would mean Glass to Brown and Mitch Brown/Eric MacKenzie to Fevola. Will be interesting to see how that turns out or if we go a defensive gameplan...

 

[SM]

Same with Roos, the less seen on TV, theoretically the more chance the Round 1 lineup will surprise opposition teams.

 

[jimbob7085]

Well, it'll interest you to find out that historically, or least more recenly, we've bombed out of the NAB cup early because we've played our rawest youngsters. I imagine that continues and we find ourselves out early (I think Worsfold prefers not be seen on telly pre-season but that's only a theory)..
That's quite interesting. Although now those raw youngsters of yesteryear are now going along quite nicely, he couldn't possibly leave Swift, Masten, McKinley (sp?) or any of those younger players. I could understand leaving Cox, Lynch and Glass and those type of players out but you should do well if you play a team fielding a relatively young side.

Also, with Brisbane, Glass can't handle Fevola at all. Probably the player who's kicked most goals on Glass. That would mean Glass to Brown and Mitch Brown/Eric MacKenzie to Fevola. Will be interesting to see how that turns out or if we go a defensive gameplan...

If you go defensive then Voss would surely try to isolate whoever Brown/MacKenzie were playing on. If Worsfold is happy with 1 on 1's...then I'm afraid he's being a bit of an idiot

 

[SirJimi05]

Richmond's midfield as with Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas should win us at least 5-6 wins. Our Defense is a bit suspect but hopefully it can hold together. If we have a relatively good run of injuries I could guarantee you we won't finish last. If we lose a few key players I could see us down near the bottom once again.

ROFCOPTOR!!!

Can't work out which is funnier...

Hawks losing only two games, Essendon winning only two games, or a forward line of Morton, Riewoldt and Nahas should win Richmond 5-6 games.

Would you feel safe giving geelong a definite win against Melbourne at Skilled? How about Saints against Richmond?...Thise games are what I call definite wins.

So you would have said that the Saints were definites to beat Essendon in round 20 this season. No such thing, champ.

This time last year you would have also said that the Hawks were definites to beat Essendon twice this season. What happened there?

 

[SirJimi05]

Same with Roos, the less seen on TV, theoretically the more chance the Round 1 lineup will surprise opposition teams.

So the opposition clubs do all their game day strategies/planning by watching the games live on TV?

 

[SirJimi05]

You couldn't seriously think having Neagle and Williams as KPP forwards would be up to standard?

Neagle, Williams & Monfries have shown much more than Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas yet those 3 are gonna win you 5-6 games next season.

 

[jimbob7085]

Neagle, Williams & Monfries have shown much more than Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas yet those 3 are gonna win you 5-6 games next season.

Put up a poll saying "which 3 forwards would you perfer" with these three players against eachother, see what the poll indicates then reply back to me. Richmond and Essendon's forward lines are not up to scratch, try to convince me otherwise...please try. That is also part of the reason why I have predict Richmond to win 5-6, it is undeniably a poor season by anyone's standards.

BTW your response on the other page was exactly like your other Essendon friend's, leaving out the part about the midfield. It seems you Essendon supporters like to skew words to suit your argument.

 

[jimbob7085]

So the opposition clubs do all their game day strategies/planning by watching the games live on TV?

Seeing a team use what could quite possibly be one of their gameplans before the season begins could help them plan for their match, if they they use the game plan.

It may not help them at all, but it also certainly couldn't harm them.

 

[Donakebab]

So your midfield is going to meek out the same performance they did this year? Great! That still means you'll wind up in the arse end of the ladder.

 

[jimbob7085]

So your midfield is going to meek out the same performance they did this year? Great! That still means you'll wind up in the arse end of the ladder.

Cousins, Foley, Cotchin were all injured for large parts of the season. Martin will also be added.
Guess what? 5-6 wins could easily see us at the bottom of the ladder again, I'm realistic about my club...not the same with you though.

 

[SirJimi05]

Put up a poll saying "which 3 forwards would you perfer" with these three players against eachother, see what the poll indicates then reply back to me. Richmond and Essendon's forward lines are not up to scratch, try to convince me otherwise...please try. That is also part of the reason why I have predict Richmond to win 5-6, it is undeniably a poor season by anyone's standards.

Why on earth would i do that? What relevence does it have to this thread? We are talking about actual runs on the board not potential. If you want to talk up potential we can include Gumby and Hurley in the pole.

You are saying that Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas are currently better equipped to win games for your club.

You are clearly biased.

Who would you prefer doesn't prove anything.

How bout asking which is currently the best combination?

 

[jimbob7085]

Why on earth would i do that? What relevence does it have to this thread? We are talking about actual runs on the board not potential. If you want to talk up potential we can include Gumby and Hurley in the pole.

You are saying that Riewoldt, Morton & Nahas are currently better equipped to win games for your club.

You are clearly biased.

Who would you prefer doesn't prove anything.

How bout asking which is currently the best combination?

Do that, I'd be interested to see the results. You couldn't add Hurley or Gumby anyway because I was stating I'd perfer Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas over Neagle, Williams and Monfries, not Hurley and Gumby too.

Include options...
Neagle, Williams and Monfries but I'm an Essendon supporter
Neagle, Williams and Monfries, I'm not an Essendon supporter
...and same for Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas to remove bias.

 

[Donakebab]

Cousins, Foley, Cotchin were all injured for large parts of the season. Martin will also be added.

Guess what? 5-6 wins could easily see us at the bottom of the ladder again, I'm realistic about my club...not the same with you though.

Essendon had a large amount of players missing large portions of the season, why haven't you mentioned them? Hille, Welsh, Prismall, McVeigh, Hurley, Myers, but hey having all of them fit won't make any difference.

And believing my club will win more then 2 games with a stronger list compared to the previous season isn't being realistic? Surely you're having a laugh.

 

[Donakebab]

[/b]

Do that, I'd be interested to see the results. You couldn't add Hurley or Gumby anyway because I was stating I'd perfer Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas over Neagle, Williams and Monfries, not Hurley and Gumby too.

Include options...
Neagle, Williams and Monfries but I'm an Essendon supporter
Neagle, Williams and Monfries, I'm not an Essendon supporter
...and same for Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas to remove bias.

Why not Hurley? Both he and Nahas are first year players. Worried you'll lose the poll or something?

 

[jimbob7085]

Why not Hurley? Both he and Nahas are first year players. Worried you'll lose the poll or something?

Because I was referring to him thinking "Neagle, Williams and Monfries" had shown more than "Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas" You can't add in Hurley now just to suit your argument. If Jimi referred to "Hurley, Williams and Monfries" I would have agreed with him.

 

[jimbob7085]

Essendon had a large amount of players missing large portions of the season, why haven't you mentioned them? Hille, Welsh, Prismall, McVeigh, Hurley, Myers, but hey having all of them fit won't make any difference.

And believing my club will win more then 2 games with a stronger list compared to the previous season isn't being realistic? Surely you're having a laugh.

You said I was "Red/Yellow Colourblind" so clearly your expecting at least 7 wins. It is very realistic expecting more than 2 wins, even I'm expecting that. Don't makke your self look like an idiot by saying "your ladder says we get only 2 win...ROFLCOPTER!!!!!!!!!" because i said I had underrated them which means I think they should win in excess of 2 games.

Don't say you have a stronger lost, majority of teams are stronger this year. If your team have improved so much you should win at least 12 games, only 1.5 games better than last season! Surely that should be the minimum amount of wins for next year.

 

[Donakebab]

You said I was "Red/Yellow Colourblind" so clearly your expecting at least 7 wins. It is very realistic expecting more than 2 wins, even I'm expecting that. Don't makke your self look like an idiot by saying "your ladder says we get only 2 win...ROFLCOPTER!!!!!!!!!" because i said I had underrated them which means I think they should win in excess of 2 games.

Don't say you have a stronger lost, majority of teams are stronger this year. If your team have improved so much you should win at least 12 games, only 1.5 games better than last season! Surely that should be the minimum amount of wins for next year.

I know what I wrote, I stand by it. Going by both lists, I put Essendon between 6th and 10th, Richmond 12th to 16th.

Why not say that we have a stronger list? It's a simple fact that we have a much stronger list then last year, even in comparision with how other lists have strengthened/weakened. Richmond on the other hand have completely turned over their list and taken a huge amount of picks from what is widely reguarded as a weak draft. Short term, this is most likely going to equate to a weaker list.

Why contridict yourself by making a ladder and then saying it's wrong?

 

[jimbob7085]

I know what I wrote, I stand by it. Going by both lists, I put Essendon between 6th and 10th, Richmond 12th to 16th.

Why not say that we have a stronger list? It's a simple fact that we have a much stronger list then last year, even in comparision with how other lists have strengthened/weakened. Richmond on the other hand have completely turned over their list and taken a huge amount of picks from what is widely reguarded as a weak draft. Short term, this is most likely going to equate to a weaker list.

Why contridict yourself by making a ladder and then saying it's wrong?

Well I thought Essendon & Carlton this year to be pushed out of the finals by Hawks & the Eagles entering them. Carlton to plunge, Essendon to hang around 9th-10th. This was before I did my ladder, I think Essendon will win more than 2 games, but I still wouldn't be surprised if they were near the bottom of the ladder. You can't call Essendon having a stronger list a "fact", it's an opinion just like most footy related subjects.

Richmond have turned over a massive amount of players but our core group was unchanged. Having Hughes, JON, Putt etc gone wont effect us much at all. Just like you losing Lloyd & Lucas shouldn't effect you too much.