Could lai come in this week of rookie list?
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List Mgmt. List Management 2024-25
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Ford Fairlane
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I'm hoping Ollie Lord replaces Luko.
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We won't know for a while. I'd say it's unlikely.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
Not unless it's season ending, and it doesn't seem to be. We didn't shut Marshall down for the year, I doubt we'll shut down Luko.
I don’t think they were ever going to take two in the SSP. However, now Luko and Marshall have both gone longer term, if either look touch and go to get back this season, I suspect putting one in cotton wool for the season would be considered.
I suppose the silver lining is they have a few rounds to settle a forward line up before going to the mid season draft. But I cant recall a KPP that has had success from the mid-season draft. (I’m sure someone will correct me)
Maybe not historically but there maybe some mature aged KPDs available. Tomlinson, DGB and Ethan Phillips. Would it hurt to put Marshall on LTI list and take one of those? Feel like it's better for Marshall in the long term to do that too
Worth some thought. Might upset Jack & Zac if Watkins is leapfrogged on a spot on our list.
Issue is we don’t even use the middle of the draft to target KPD. We use almost solely the late/rookie draft to fill these positions which all inevitably fail.
Here’s our last 15 Odd years of drafting when it comes to KPD;
2010
Jonas rookie
2012
Clurey 29
2014
Howard 56
Austin 69
2017
McKenzie - DFA - Not KPD
2018
Grundy 73
2019
Pasini rookie
2021
Skinner DFA
2022
Marshall 59
McCallum 36 - Not a KPD
2023
Walsh rookie
2024
Moss Cat B
Since 2010, we have used 0 1st rounders. 1 second rounder and a handful of 4th rounders, rookies and DFA picks.
We will never succeed with this list strategy. Imagine building a midfield with 4th round picks. A forward line with 4th round picks.
It’s astounding that this has been our list management for such an extended period in such a key role.
Yes you can find a gem in the rough but you also can’t count on 15 years of drafts all being that gem and watch them all fail. At some point point you have to actually invest.
It’s been 15 years of failed picks yet we persist. That whole time we’ve acknowledged how undersized we are. How we lack true KPD, how we lack quality down back.
We never invest and the club has been setup to fail regardless of the rest of the field until we do.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Ok sure. You’ve listed 12 players.
Too early to make a call on Walsh or Moss.
Of the ten remaining. 30% strike rate for a 100 + gamer, 40% to find a player.
Jonas over 200 games, Clurey over 100 games, Howard (at two clubs) over 100 games. McKenzie filled a KPD role and cost very little.
Alir was traded in for very little. BZT cost us Duursma. Sav cost us way too much.
Now can you tell us which first rounders we missed out on? Or should we reach for players?
Outside of Bergman and Georgiades over SDK (a Victorian through and through and would have headed home immediately), Berry in the recent draft, Rozee over Ben King, are there other cases that we have missed out on?
Carlton had pick one because they were crap, and got Weitering. McAsey and DGB are two top ten busts. Meanwhile Taylor went in the second round. Wilkie was a rookie. Lever and May were first rounders but got to Melbourne via trades. Battle, Frost and Barrass reached the Hawks via free agency and trade whilst Sicily was a late pick.
There wasn’t anything wrong with the Esava trade, except that he’s been crap or injured. We just picked the wrong player.
There was nothing wrong with the Esava trade except picking the wrong player. Brilliant.
Doctor Feel
Shitposter In Chief
I read that too and was like, so everything was wrong with that trade then?
Overpaid draft capital, poo player. Nothing wrong with the trade!
It’s just 12 players is just such a simplistic mindset.
It’s 15 years of drafting of which, only Jonas has been a success from late in the draft for us.
Go back even longer than that and our drafting doesn’t get any better in the KPD department.
You simply cannot build a list and rely solely on trading players in. What’s the plan if there’s no available players who want to come to SA? Just continue to get caught out? Cool.
Sav is average at best down back. McKenzie was not a true KPD (as shown by getting toweled up regularly by any decent KPF), Clurey is the only second round pick we spent and was the best outside of Jonas (maybe a so an we should invest higher in the draft). BZT is alright. Aliir was a win at the trade table.
Aliir is on the tail end and slowing down to what he was a few years ago. Yet we have no one in that 20-22 age group developing to take over and getting games.
Can claim it’s too early to tell but the success rate of rookies and Cat Bs is low. Not holding my breath that they are out saving grace as our only developing KPDs on the list.
Again you wouldn’t build a forward line around rookies and delisted players. At some point you have to invest. That’s not saying every early pick is a gun just as no pick is but it gives you a greater chance of success.
Asking to spend a could second round picks over a 15-20 year period isn’t asking for much from a list management perspective.
- Sep 25, 2013
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Haha. It’s genius what can I say?!
Alright maybe needed some context.
I meant it’s fine to overpay if you know what you’re getting. Ie Melbourne paid a lot to get Lever and May. Hawthorn with Barrass. Or Essendon using cap space only on an unproven McKay.
Instead we overpaid for two guys who weren’t first 22 at their clubs, had injury issues and were still learning the game. We gambled. The other examples were shrewd, low risk trading.
Forwards tend to rely on natural ability and high skill level which can be identified early, so the good ones tend to be snapped up first round.
Defenders rely on competitiveness and grow into their role - something much harder to identify early.
Hence why most gun KPFs are high first round picks whereas you have a much higher share of late picks as gun KPDs (Andrews, McGovern, Aliir, Wilkie, Pearce)
- Sep 25, 2013
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Forward line is different. It’s first rounders all the way.
Rucks and backs are different.
If they are so available to pick as late picks, why in 15 years have we never had one of that calibre at the club? Heck even longer. Because they are so hit and miss at that range and incredibly hard to get the right one.
There might be 20+ KPD and projects players taken late in the draft or rookies over a couple years and 2 of those may become quality defenders.
Using a too 30 pick is more likely to increase that to somewhere like 1/5 chance of a top quality player. At some point we need to be taking that chance.
Our approach is just throw as many darts blind at the board until one hopefully sticks.
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The late picks only grow into their role if you develop them, which we flatout refuse to do.
When was the last time we played a developing key defender? Logan Austin in 2016?
We gambled because we were effectively forced to do so, because we'd flat out refused to even try to develop guys on our own. We couldn't give Pasini a single game at AFL level?
Aliir is 30. The chickens are coming home to roost.
We got away with it in the ruck because with modern sides only playing 1, there is always an excess of decent ruckmen to trade for because there are only 18 jobs. You don't have that with key defender, teams can always compete with you to bring another one in, so you have to overpay.
You don't need to give up first rounders for key position defenders. There are plenty in the late first, early second.
Sometimes a guy is just too irresistible for a club like Dan Curtain for the Cows and a few others but usually the first round is full of midfielders, key position forwards and nowadays, the explosive small forward who kicks goals.
Over Hinkley's time, the List Management hasn't gone in hard for tall players in general.
The other thing is that Hinkley is not great at developing tall timber. Over the course his 13 year reign of terror, I don't think we've had one tall player come out of the nowhere. Not one.
I did a big write up on it a while ago but for me, it shows an underlying problem of Hinkley in that he's not that good at evaluating talent and then getting the most out of it. And it gets to the point where in the off season we are desperate to overpay for middling players. Last year paying for forwards. 2023 for Soldo, Sweet, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher.
I can't wait to get rid of Hinkley. The onfield will be so much better. He's just the worst.
Sack Hinkley.
Sometimes a guy is just too irresistible for a club like Dan Curtain for the Cows and a few others but usually the first round is full of midfielders, key position forwards and nowadays, the explosive small forward who kicks goals.
Over Hinkley's time, the List Management hasn't gone in hard for tall players in general.
The other thing is that Hinkley is not great at developing tall timber. Over the course his 13 year reign of terror, I don't think we've had one tall player come out of the nowhere. Not one.
I did a big write up on it a while ago but for me, it shows an underlying problem of Hinkley in that he's not that good at evaluating talent and then getting the most out of it. And it gets to the point where in the off season we are desperate to overpay for middling players. Last year paying for forwards. 2023 for Soldo, Sweet, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher.
I can't wait to get rid of Hinkley. The onfield will be so much better. He's just the worst.
Sack Hinkley.
- Mar 1, 2014
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Good post re our drafting of tall defenders, particularly the comparison of building a midfield or forward line from 4th round picks, which could only result in an extremely uncompetitive team that would be absolutely smashed by most other line ups.
Re the two more `successful' draftees in Jonas and Clurey, unfortunately neither were of genuine KPD size.
After a couple of very good seasons TJ's lack of height, skill, and decision making were eventually brutally exposed, and in his last couple of seasons on the list he was a liability, and I can still recall Cluzza in a Maggie's game at Alberton against the tingles being significantly shorter and lighter than his opponent (Podsiadly), who absolutely monstered him for a couple of goals in the first 5 minutes of that game resulting in the coach having to make a very early change, or it was going to get very ugly.
