LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

[Slax]

So 6 year terms by party

LNP - 16
ALP - 13
Greens - 3
NXT - 2
ON - 1
Lambie

3 year terms by party
LNP - 14
ALP - 13
Greens - 6
NXT - 1
ON - 3
LDP - 1
FF - 1
Hinch

This is assuming that the AEC declaration method is accept as the means to allocate 6 year terms.

The other option is to send the AEC back to recount the Senate tickets and declare as if a half Senate election. This method would looking a preference flows give the following 6 year terms

LNP - 15 (-1 Vic)
ALP - 12 (-1 NSW)
Greens - 4 (+1 NSW)
NXT - 2
ON
Lambie
Hinch (Vic)

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

3 year terms by party
...ON - 3

If it stays that way, this is the one small upside. The LNP will have to point it out repeatedly when confronted with the motley crew their Double Dissolution election has assembled. Unless of course the rightwing of the party keeps getting its way in which case they'll be stoked to have their One Nation bedfellows.

 

[Slax]

Unlucky losers in each State

NSW - Christian Democrats
Qld - Family First
SA - ALP
TAS - One Nation
Vic - Sex Party
WA - WA Nationals

 

[Slax]

If it stays that way, this is the one small upside. The LNP will have to point it out repeatedly when confronted with the motley crew their Double Dissolution election has assembled. Unless of course the rightwing of the party keeps getting its way in which case they'll be stoked to have their One Nation bedfellows.

Taking this tone though could backfire, they could see it as a way to actually increase their profile and increase re-election potential. If they hold their vote in Queensland then they would comfortably retain that seat.

Turnbull must be hating today, he wouldn't of liked the idea of dealing with them holding three seats, but 4 is just a nightmare as it means he either needs to deal with the Greens or with One Nation.

 

[Badesumofu]

That means the Coalition will need both ONP and NXT to get through anything that Labor and the Greens vote against. I reckon it's going to be very tough for them to do anything. And short of committing suicide by calling another DD over some piece of legislation that no one cares about they are stuck with this senate for the next three years.

Wow. What a disaster for the government. Labor should start warm favourites for the next Federal Election.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

NSW AEC recommendation for 6 year terms

I'm pretty sure the AEC will make no recommendation as it is up to the Senate itself to decide who gets the full and half terms.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

That means the Coalition will need both ONP and NXT to get through anything that Labor and the Greens vote against. I reckon it's going to be very tough for them to do anything. And short of committing suicide by calling another DD over some piece of legislation that no one cares about they are stuck with this senate for the next three years.

Wow. What a disaster for the government. Labor should start warm favourites for the next Federal Election.

It's been said a few times that the Senate can't be changed for 2 years. I think it's legislated but can't see anything from a very quick search. I don't think they even have DD as an option therefore.

 

[Mofra]

That means the Coalition will need both ONP and NXT to get through anything that Labor and the Greens vote against. I reckon it's going to be very tough for them to do anything. And short of committing suicide by calling another DD over some piece of legislation that no one cares about they are stuck with this senate for the next three years.

Wow. What a disaster for the government. Labor should start warm favourites for the next Federal Election.

Turnbull has his hands full trying to run his own fractured party before he even considers sating the Nats, then he has to compromise with either Hanson or Xenophon.

Politics reporters must be rubbing their hands in glee, years of juicy stories coming up.

 

[Badesumofu]

It's been said a few times that the Senate can't be changed for 2 years. I think it's legislated but can't see anything from a very quick search. I don't think they even have DD as an option therefore.

Constitutionally, the Senate has fixed 3 year terms. The House does not, you can dissolve it as long as the GG consents. I'm not aware of anything that would prevent another DD if they get a trigger which you imagine they will. The issue is that the people will basically have had enough at that point and most likely elect the ALP in a landslide. The ALP has been remarkably stable since Shorten took over and they've done a good job of looking like a legitimate alternative government.

 

[Badesumofu]

Turnbull has his hands full trying to run his own fractured party before he even considers sating the Nats, then he has to compromise with either Hanson or Xenophon.

Politics reporters must be rubbing their hands in glee, years of juicy stories coming up.

He needs both the NXT *and* One Nation, and also two independents for anything that Labor and the Greens both oppose. ALP + Greens + NXT = 38 which is enough to prevent a majority. ALP + Greens + ONP = 39 which is itself a majority.

Now how does one juggle the factions within his own riven party, the Nationals, Nick Xenophon, Pauline Hanson and friends (who apparently can vote against Pauline any time they feel like it)? I don't think you can. And he's stuck with them this time.

 

[Mofra]

He needs both the NXT *and* One Nation, and also two independents for anything that Labor and the Greens both oppose. ALP + Greens + NXT = 38 which is enough to prevent a majority. ALP + Greens + ONP = 39 which is itself a majority.

Now how does one juggle the factions within his own riven party, the Nationals, Nick Xenophon, Pauline Hanson and friends (who apparently can vote against Pauline any time they feel like it)? I don't think you can. And he's stuck with them this time.

Yep - in old military parlance Turnbull's committed a classic "zip, flop, stomp".

He's disappointed Lib moderates, upset Lib conservatives by rolling Abbott, disappointed swinging voters who believed his moderate views would survive the pragmatism of running a party and has just scarped into power with large swings against him.

I think he'll actually serve a full term but achieve little to nothing. It would be political suicide for the Libs to roll him now.

 

[Gough]

Yep - in old military parlance Turnbull's committed a classic "zip, flop, stomp".

He's disappointed Lib moderates, upset Lib conservatives by rolling Abbott, disappointed swinging voters who believed his moderate views would survive the pragmatism of running a party and has just scarped into power with large swings against him.

I think he'll actually serve a full term but achieve little to nothing. It would be political suicide for the Libs to roll him now.

Talking with some friends this week, and the overwhelming consensus was Australia will stand still for another three years, at precisely the time we can't afford to be doing that.

 

[AM]

Talking with some friends this week, and the overwhelming consensus was Australia will stand still for another three years, at precisely the time we can't afford to be doing that.

Still think we'll be back at the polls within three years.

Don't envy Malcolm's job with such a wafer thin House of Reps majority, an unstable Senate and two of the best political haters in Abbott and Rudd gunning for him.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Wow. What a disaster for the government. Labor should start warm favourites for the next Federal Election.

There really is very little going for the Libs:
- Turnbull popularity on the wane for a number of months
- No post-election polling honeymoon thus far, perhaps indicative that the public see Turnbull as being cooked
- They surely cannot axe another PM mid-term, especially without a clear and popular replacement
- No longer get a 1st term government stability/sympathy vote
- Only a 1-seat majority; susceptible to dummy spits or deaths/resignations
- Bitter internal factional warfare. Abetz & co. already white-anting (and a Minister over Rudd & the UN)
- Senate very difficult to work with
- Deteriorating fiscal position

And most importantly: they don't seem to have a clue policy-wise as to what to do now that they've been elected

 

[telsor]

Between ALP, GRN & NXT, the Libs wont be able to get anything through that doesn't look like an ALP policy to start with (and even then, probably not...ALP/GRN wouldn't want to give them the win). Turnbull would probably be comfortable with that policy-wise, but he'd lose what hold he has on his party, and thus the prime ministership, and his ego would never allow that, meaning we're stuck with a non functional government.

Big question will come up around this time next year when he's trying to get a budget through.

 

[Slax]

I'm pretty sure the AEC will make no recommendation as it is up to the Senate itself to decide who gets the full and half terms.

The AEC have declared their order of being elected, make of it what you will but it done as their way of saying it. The Senate will decide but it will either be this or recount as if half Senate election. If the Libs try anything else then nothing will be done for three years you can bet on that.

 

[telsor]

The AEC have declared their order of being elected, make of it what you will but it done as their way of saying it. The Senate will decide but it will either be this or recount as if half Senate election. If the Libs try anything else then nothing will be done for three years you can bet on that.

I'm pretty sure the legislation that setup the half count as the preferred method would force the AEC to do the 'recount' anyway.

Going by your estimate that Lib & ALP both lose with a half count (GRN & Hinch win), I wouldn't be shocked if the decision not to accept the half count would gain *cough* bipartisan support.

 

[Slax]

Between ALP, GRN & NXT, the Libs wont be able to get anything through that doesn't look like an ALP policy to start with (and even then, probably not...ALP/GRN wouldn't want to give them the win). Turnbull would probably be comfortable with that policy-wise, but he'd lose what hold he has on his party, and thus the prime ministership, and his ego would never allow that, meaning we're stuck with a non functional government.

Big question will come up around this time next year when he's trying to get a budget through.

In some ways Dan Andrews did Shorten a favour. If he had kept his mouth shut we would have a hung parliament as it cost Labor 3 seats in Victoria, this would give Turnbull an out. The Senate would be difficult regardless as Labor would need Greens + NXT or ON or the independents. Messy however you do it. Now they can do an Abbott and "Just say No".

Turnbull is cooked, the problem for the Liberal Party is that there is no-one else there who is going to do a better job. Whilst they might stop some of the infighting they won't be acceptable to the electorate.

My one hope out of this is that Xenophon can get Pauline Hanson on board with his gambling reforms. It is something could be a win for Hanson as she could use it to say that One Nation is about more than anti-Islam

 

[Slax]

I'm pretty sure the legislation that setup the half count as the preferred method would force the AEC to do the 'recount' anyway.

Going by your estimate that Lib & ALP both lose with a half count (GRN & Hinch win), I wouldn't be shocked if the decision not to accept the half count would gain *cough* bipartisan support.

The legislation recommends it, there is actually no state way as to how to do it. They wouldn't be too happy with it, but the Libs don't have much to bargain with so they will have to give some ground somewhere. The other problem for them is that the minors will all gang up together for what suits them best. It will make no difference either way for NXT, ON, Lambie, Day or Leyonhjelm, but it is definitely in their interests for more minor parties in the Senate as it increases the exposure of them all and shows that the big two have their own agenda which is not always what is best for the country.

Fun times ahead

 

[Badesumofu]

I don't think it is reasonable to infer that because the AEC are telling us the order that senators were elected that they endorsing one method or the other for determining who gets which term. The Senate can choose any method it likes and although they previously resolved that the recount method would be preferred, in 1987 they actually chose the order of election method anyway because it suited Labor and the Democrats at the time.

I daresay it's been linked already, but here is Antony Green's piece on this: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...are-allocated-after-a-double-dissolution.html

 

[telsor]

The legislation recommends it, there is actually no state way as to how to do it. They wouldn't be too happy with it, but the Libs don't have much to bargain with so they will have to give some ground somewhere. The other problem for them is that the minors will all gang up together for what suits them best. It will make no difference either way for NXT, ON, Lambie, Day or Leyonhjelm, but it is definitely in their interests for more minor parties in the Senate as it increases the exposure of them all and shows that the big two have their own agenda which is not always what is best for the country.

Fun times ahead

I wouldn't be shocked to hear that discussions are being had with Hinch to support him getting 6 years in exchange for his support on something or other, especially by the ALP (they have less to lose 'only' losing their 6 yr seat to the Greens). That said, I'm not sure Hinch is nuanced enough to work that way.

Big one I see coming up though is marriage equality...Which they almost have to do ASAP to meet their promises on the matter.

House sends up bill for plebiscite, Senate rejects and sends back bill for parliament to just change the law now....What will Turnbull do? Personally he'd want to say yes, but even he would realise that accepting it (or allowing a conscience vote) would cause a major revolt within his party.

 

[Badesumofu]

Oh I can just imagine it: the house sends the senate the bill to enable the plebiscite. The senate sends back a bill to simply enable marriage equality. The house sends their original bill back again and it fails again. We then have a DD so that the people can vote for whether to have a plebiscite or not. The meta-plebiscite they can call it. Democracy in action. Or would it be democracy squared?

 

[telsor]

Oh I can just imagine it: the house sends the senate the bill to enable the plebiscite. The senate sends back a bill to simply enable marriage equality. The house sends their original bill back again and it fails again. We then have a DD so that the people can vote for whether to have a plebiscite or not. The meta-plebiscite they can call it. Democracy in action. Or would it be democracy squared?

And going by the last DD, absolutely nobody will mention the reason for the election in any of their campaigning.

 

[Slax]

Firstly he has to actually get the legislation drawn up and if he wants to make any mileage out of it he needs it to be front and centre the first week parliament sits, if it isn't then he looks like he never wanted the plebiscite to be held this year.

I wonder if Turnbull knows he is on death row when it comes back he may well decide to do call the conscious vote as a parting swipe at the party right. It would also cause chaos as they wouldn't react well, but Turnbull would get a big bump in the polls for standing up to them, so they are caught in a catch 22.

 

[telsor]

Firstly he has to actually get the legislation drawn up and if he wants to make any mileage out of it he needs it to be front and centre the first week parliament sits, if it isn't then he looks like he never wanted the plebiscite to be held this year.

I wonder if Turnbull knows he is on death row when it comes back he may well decide to do call the conscious vote as a parting swipe at the party right. It would also cause chaos as they wouldn't react well, but Turnbull would get a big bump in the polls for standing up to them, so they are caught in a catch 22.

Not sure he'd get that much of a bump, because those who would be pleased by it are unlikely to vote Liberal anyway.

I also think his ego will see him hanging on for dear life.