Traded Ollie Henry - Traded to Geelong as part of a reported 3-way deal (details tbc)

[DopeMaster]

Whispers are pies about to fold.

25 will get it done.

Twomey saying the exact opposite to that on trade radio just now, he’s usually pretty close to the mark. What’s your thource?

 

[danielnajdek]

Twomey saying the exact opposite to that on trade radio just now, he’s usually pretty close to the mark. What’s your thource?

His backside.

 

[sleep]

Twomey saying the exact opposite to that on trade radio just now, he’s usually pretty close to the mark. What’s your thource?

Ppl involved with the pies...

 

[Pure_Ownage]

My point is that the future first is not on the table, not because of how the Cats rate Ollie. It's not on the table because it doesn't have to be, as Ollie has given the Cats a stacked deck and I'm not talking about his comments in the media. He's told the Cats that he won't sign with Collingwood if the deal doesn't go through. Meaning they can rip off his current employer.

Tbh I don't think it's about not rating ollie (although he clearly isnt as much as a priority for our list needs than tanner bruhn was and for obvious reason) we know him well and were keen on picking him 2 years ago so im sure we rate his talent.
I think it's more simply that geelong realises they can get him without giving up a 1st rounder because of his contract status etc so we havent offered more than we need to.
A bit like how we pushed freo for 19 or a better pick than that for clark but in the end they only offered 22 as we and they knew they wouldnt give up more so our only option was to keep a disgruntled player (which is an option collingwood may not even have as henry isnt contracted) so we took what we could.
I think it's similar dynamics here but honestly im guessing only those inside the 2 clubs know whats going on.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Surely it’s this if we’re being rational. Or as Robroy22 has said, it’s a subconscious F U to Collingwood with a take it or leave it ultimatum.

I’d like to believe your version, but if that were true, the narrative wouldn’t be the Pies are ONLY after a first rounder + there’d be more talks over the weekend that the two clubs are close and just waiting for other trades to finalise this one.

Maybe it’s the Collingwood supporter in me, but I feel it’s Geelong/Mackie’s way of forcing a trade by checkmating Collingwood as I’d read earlier in the week Collingwood was going to try moving up in the draft by offloading a whole lot of our third rounders to Brisbane - seems as though the Cats beat us to the punch and snookered us perfectly in the process.

I do agree the geelong brisbane pick trade is hard to work out whats going on (ie was it an attempt to checkmate collingwood or something else) without knowing what brisbane demanded and whats going on with other deals (eg bowes). For all we know brisbane could have refused to do the deal without a future 2nd and they might have decided they wanted to do the pick trade by the weekend and had multiple clubs offering for that pick so said to geelong you do the deal now or 25 is gone. I find it hard to believe that we wouldnt trade for 25 without an agreement from collingwood that 25 would be on traded to them (as logically that seems to make the most sense) but who knows.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

27 + Stephens for Henry could see it done?
A similar Jack Crisp 'steak knives' situation would be nice if it pays off!

I wouldnt be against that but Stephens hasnt requested a trade and would probably be in the same position with you as us (ie stuck in the vfl behind a strong midfield). If he does ask for a trade (unlikely at this late stage but possible) it would be to a bottom 6 club that can give him regular playing time so i'm not sure i see a fit there with collingwood.

 

[pugsville]

Trading often about relative power rather than what is "fair". Geelong , Henry is perhaps the least important of their trade targets, he just is not a high priority they happy to get him , but they are NOT invested as a "need". They think Collingwood will be forced to take what they can get. Which they they may well do.

 

[BringouttheGimp]

Why didn't Steven's play a game in his first 2 seasons.. let me guess.. hard to break into the side when all of your midfielders were AFL team of the millennium quality man.. so it's not exactly a shit sandwich playing in the VFL for the first 2 seasons.. even as a P16 man. Fair dinkum.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Why didn't Steven's play a game in his first 2 seasons.. let me guess.. hard to break into the side when all of your midfielders were AFL team of the millennium quality man.. so it's not exactly a s**t sandwich playing in the VFL for the first 2 seasons.. even as a P16 man. Fair dinkum.

Stevens was a defender and he's been delisted.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Why didn't Steven's play a game in his first 2 seasons.. let me guess.. hard to break into the side when all of your midfielders were AFL team of the millennium quality man.. so it's not exactly a s**t sandwich playing in the VFL for the first 2 seasons.. even as a P16 man. Fair dinkum.

Mostly injury and covid.

 

[Gone Critical]

I do agree the geelong brisbane pick trade is hard to work out whats going on (ie was it an attempt to checkmate collingwood or something else) without knowing what brisbane demanded and whats going on with other deals (eg bowes). For all we know brisbane could have refused to do the deal without a future 2nd and they might have decided they wanted to do the pick trade by the weekend and had multiple clubs offering for that pick so said to geelong you do the deal now or 25 is gone. I find it hard to believe that we wouldnt trade for 25 without an agreement from collingwood that 25 would be on traded to them (as logically that seems to make the most sense) but who knows.

Problem with that senario is its probably too early in the trade period for Pies to fold and agree to 25 when we clearly want more. Normally I am strongly against the idea of not doing an unders trade and losing the player for nothing but this case is a little different. As it stands if we don't trade then there is a chance Ollie signs for 1 year which is our no 1 preference. If that happened I expect him to be best 22 by end of 23, he is a talent , on the way up, and with Ginnivan is the pick of our large group of 2020 recruits. A good 23 and he is either shipped off to Cats in 24 for a much better price or we have convinced him to stay.

The downside isnt bad as it seem we will likely only take 2 picks in the draft plus upgrade Noble. Thus 25 wont be worth a lot more than our next pick after it comes in a bit. We already have picks to trade for Frampton and Fiorini and can use 27 if we get it for Grundy to get Mitchell.

So while we probably do take 25 ( dont think what you get for Esava would be of use to us as we wouldnt use that pick) it wont surprise if we say no and hope Ollie signs for a year. That is by far the best outcome for us and the downside if he says no is to drop 10 picks or so from 25, not a big price to pay.

 

[Danger Zone]

Cats fans are way overvaluing Stephens, worth about half of what Henry would be in trade value.

 

[Robroy22]

What functional difference is there for the cats whether they give that pick to you or Brisbane?

They offer 15 to Wright and he probably accepts it. It's better than the insulting 38, better than the 18 we originally asked for, Ollie gets home, Pies get an equivalent pick and whilst we've lost two years of development no-one gets totally shafted.
Geelong then have to do some more leg work to get another pick to satisfy Brissy but that's still doable, you keep your reputation as great dealers, you get the 4 first rounders this year and can sit back like Cheshire Cats until next year.

But by doing it this way, this way you give Brisbane the pick 15 (that they don't really need considering their father sons this year) and then you get to make the Pies swallow 25?

Gee now, am I the only one that thinks this isn't about "doing good business with the Pies?"

 

[sr36]

I do agree the geelong brisbane pick trade is hard to work out whats going on (ie was it an attempt to checkmate collingwood or something else) without knowing what brisbane demanded and whats going on with other deals (eg bowes). For all we know brisbane could have refused to do the deal without a future 2nd and they might have decided they wanted to do the pick trade by the weekend and had multiple clubs offering for that pick so said to geelong you do the deal now or 25 is gone. I find it hard to believe that we wouldnt trade for 25 without an agreement from collingwood that 25 would be on traded to them (as logically that seems to make the most sense) but who knows.

Definitely an attempt to check mate. No way Pies would have given up on the future first so soon and agreed to such a poor outcome. I hope we don't deal and he either re-signs or we miss out on 25.

If Ollie does risk the draft, it just means that we'll be picking about 10 spots later. At that point of the draft you're a fair chance to get the same player or someone that you rate very similarly - basically, someone with a very similar chance of making it.

This year, 25 is less valuable to us than normal, as we'll only take a couple of selections. So let it go Pies.

 

[odoyle_rules]

Cats fans still thinking we lose Ollie for nothing. There is ZERO chance he walks into the draft. It's either Cats or Pies in 2023.

Also, there is no reason as to why we would cave in which is being suggested. Pies preference is to sign him up again, so why would we cave?

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

What do we have to give Collingwood for you to stop bringing up Madgen?

Pay a 1st round pick for Ollie Henry

 

[sr36]

Tbh I don't think it's about not rating ollie (although he clearly isnt as much as a priority for our list needs than tanner bruhn was and for obvious reason) we know him well and were keen on picking him 2 years ago so im sure we rate his talent.
I think it's more simply that geelong realises they can get him without giving up a 1st rounder because of his contract status etc so we havent offered more than we need to.
A bit like how we pushed freo for 19 or a better pick than that for clark but in the end they only offered 22 as we and they knew they wouldnt give up more so our only option was to keep a disgruntled player (which is an option collingwood may not even have as henry isnt contracted) so we took what we could.
I think it's similar dynamics here but honestly im guessing only those inside the 2 clubs know whats going on.

I agree with all of that. Fair chance Collingwood say no though. At which point Mackie will have given up your future second rounder and some other picks to move from 36 to 25. And Ollie will have a tough decision to make.

 

[Duskfire]

Cats fans still thinking we lose Ollie for nothing. There is ZERO chance he walks into the draft. It's either Cats or Pies in 2023.

Also, there is no reason as to why we would cave in which is being suggested. Pies preference is to sign him up again, so why would we cave?

Well they would have to because Geelong don't have anything else. They can't give up their future 1st. Pick 25 is it.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Cats fans are way overvaluing Stephens, worth about half of what Henry would be in trade value.

Stephens is irrelevant to the discussion. He's contracted and worth way more to Geelong than we would get elsewhere.

I doubt Geelong would be willing to trade Stephens as a straight swap for Henry but that says more about Geelong's needs and their respective contract situations than how the players are rated by outsiders.

 

[12kilos]

Tbh I don't think it's about not rating ollie (although he clearly isnt as much as a priority for our list needs than tanner bruhn was and for obvious reason) we know him well and were keen on picking him 2 years ago so im sure we rate his talent.
I think it's more simply that geelong realises they can get him without giving up a 1st rounder because of his contract status etc so we havent offered more than we need to.
A bit like how we pushed freo for 19 or a better pick than that for clark but in the end they only offered 22 as we and they knew they wouldnt give up more so our only option was to keep a disgruntled player (which is an option collingwood may not even have as henry isnt contracted) so we took what we could.
I think it's similar dynamics here but honestly im guessing only those inside the 2 clubs know whats going on.

You make some good points.
But igoring a crucial point Geelong wont get him unless a deal is struck.
TBH i see a stalemate here , a deal wont get done.
What happens after Henry most likely signs an extension but its no guarantee

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Pay a 1st round pick for Ollie Henry

Well f* I guess we'll take Madgen then

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Why didn't Steven's play a game in his first 2 seasons.. let me guess.. hard to break into the side when all of your midfielders were AFL team of the millennium quality man.. so it's not exactly a s**t sandwich playing in the VFL for the first 2 seasons.. even as a P16 man. Fair dinkum.

Stevens is a delisted defender.

Stephens the midfielder was injured for his first 2 years here this is his first actual non injured season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You make some good points.
But igoring a crucial point Geelong wont get him unless a deal is struck.
TBH i see a stalemate here , a deal wont get done.
What happens after Henry most likely signs an extension but its no guarantee

What if he doesnt agree to sign though?

 

[sr36]

Well they would have to because Geelong don't have anything else. They can't give up their future 1st. Pick 25 is it.

And lots of Pies are hoping that we don't do the deal. Thus giving Ollie the choice of the draft or re-signing with us. It's a gamble I'd take as we don't stand to lose as much as people think.

 

[catman2006]

Cats fans still thinking we lose Ollie for nothing. There is ZERO chance he walks into the draft. It's either Cats or Pies in 2023.

Also, there is no reason as to why we would cave in which is being suggested. Pies preference is to sign him up again, so why would we cave?

Are you 100% sure I would be 40-40-20 pies, cats, or walks