RussellEbertHandball
Flick pass expert
I have no problem stockpiling quality talls. This BS, oh how do we fit Ryder, Lycett, Dixon, Frampton, Marshall, M King, Westhoff, Watts etc in to our forward line type thinking is a bit nonsensical. Players get injured, suspended and players lose form. They aren't all in peak playing form at the same time. So there aren't many games you really have that problem.
But we should be drafting someone to be ready to go in 2019 when we have 3 picks inside the top 15 and be good enough to play 15-20 games, or more in 2019. Which one of the three picks it is, all depends who is available when we choose.
Back in July 2016 I said 2019 is when we will be in best position to win a flag with the squad we had then and with expected quality players we would draft (with a high pick in 2016) and trade in and out over a couple of years given how much experience it takes to win a flag. I also said - I reckon we are 3 years away from winning a flag because we have to become battle hardened and become mentally tougher to go from 4th to a flag. I also said if we don't win by 2019 we probably wont win before 2025. You need a certain amount of experience to get to a GF and win it.
The Bulldogs got away with not much experience but that was due in large part to the new finals system and being able to rest players. that they wouldnt have had if there was no bye. But they are the outlier and will be for many, many years IMO.
2010 Coll 2,286 games vs St K 2,876 games
2011 Gee 3,207 vs Coll 3,055 (Davis and Tarrant added 450+ games to 2010 team)
2012 Syd 2,890 vs Haw 2,484
2013 Haw 3,069 vs Freo 2,528 ( Biggest difference Guerra and Lake added 460+ games)
2014 Haw 3,026 vs Syd 3,020
2015 Haw 3,670 vs WCE 2,479 (Frawley 150)
2016 WB 1,807 vs Syd 2,499
2017 Rich 2,290 vs Adel 2,391
2018 WCE 2,657 vs Coll 2,435
With 37 players on our list and other teams have more or less, we are still the 3rd most experienced by average games per player on the current lists (85.6 games). See
https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2019
We were 2nd in 2018 (72.5) and I'm a bit surprised by Colingwood being 2nd (87.3), but I just checked and they started 2018 3rd (68.3) and 4 games/player behind us and now are 1.7 ahead of us after player movements so far.
So our list profile is that we have enough 100 gamers (11 with Robbie on 199) and 200 gamers (4) to be in a position to challenge. McKenzie and Mayes would be the only players of those 15 who wouldn't be in our starting side Rd 1 2019 if everyone was 100% fit, fully recovered from operations and no preseason injuries prior to Rd 1 selection.
One of our main issues was we dont have great depth. We had very few injuries, suspensions and loss of form before Rd 11, but we had a lot more in the last 5-7 weeks and we just dropped off the perch. Plus we were mentally shot after the WCE loss, leading all day until after the siren.
I reckon we are a 10-14 win side. To make the jump we have to get mentally tougher when the games are on the line. We have to get over the malaise we have when the game is on the line and we do dumb stupid things or non thinking things. Can the older players who have stuffed up so many times in the past learn?? Balance of probabilities says no. Can the new coaches help educate our players and motivate them so we don't lose those close ones?? Time will tell. But I don't think Ken will be the one that drives this change.
But for us to make a big jump I reckon its Marshall and Lycett who will be the big keys not a great young mid in the draft. If Marshall can kick 40 goals - which will be assisted if we have Lycett and Ryder changing in the forward line and the oppo have to put a gorilla on them and not Marshall - then that gives us the opportunity for that big jump.
I reckon Lycett has the chance to transform us. The only time we have regularly played 2 rucks in Ken's tenure was in 2015 when we got Ryder. But Lobbe lost his ability to play and contributed very little like he had in the 2nd half of 2013 and all of 2014. They only played 13 of 22 games together.
Our forward line of Dixon, Marshall, Lycett/Ryder and when need be, Westhoff and Watts will see us play a different way to what we have seen in the past. If we take Max King and he performs for the Maggies then throw him in the mix up forward. The only thing we have to fear about this sort of line up, is fear itself.
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