Preview Preview/changes v. Collingwood @ MCG - Qualifying Final

[BaliDemon]

Cmon mate. If we have 5-7 match winners and they have one show us the bet slip of us 40+

Even the biggest dee nuffie would have to admit the line is super close on this one

We have four match winners imo. Tracc, Gawn, May & Fritsch. You could even make a case for Pickett. These are players who if they bring their A game the Pies won’t be able to cope with. Right now I genuinely only regard DeGoey as having that ‘extra gear’ in their line-up. Moore in the first half of the season was on fire but he tapered off and now he’s short of a gallop. N. Daicos outski.

The betting line flatters them given their past month of footy. We should beat them by 3-4 goals.

Frankly, Brisbane and Carlton are the only two sides which worry me of the other finalists. I reckon Collingwood go out in straight sets.

 

[Topkent]

We have four match winners imo. Tracc, Gawn, May & Fritsch. You could even make a case for Pickett. These are players who if they bring their A game the Pies won’t be able to cope with. Right now I genuinely only regard DeGoey as having that ‘extra gear’ in their line-up. Moore in the first half of the season was on fire but he tapered off and now he’s short of a gallop. N. Daicos outski.

The betting line flatters them given their past month of footy. We should beat them by 3-4 goals.

Frankly, Brisbane and Carlton are the only two sides which worry me of the other finalists. I reckon Collingwood go out in straight sets.

Well if we touch em up easily I'll give you your deserved plaudits. I'm alot more circumspect myself. Collingwood are in every game they play.

Been doing some thinking and I reckon Brisbane are clear favourites. They smashed us and Collingwood at their ground, really should have beaten us as they smashed us for most of the game then collapsed at the G and flogged Collingwood at Marvel. They have firepower everywhere

 

[BaliDemon]

Well if we touch em up easily I'll give you your deserved plaudits. I'm alot more circumspect myself. Collingwood are in every game they play.

Been doing some thinking and I reckon Brisbane are clear favourites. They smashed us and Collingwood at their ground, really should have beaten us as they smashed us for most of the game then collapsed at the G and flogged Collingwood at Marvel. They have firepower everywhere

Now this I agree with. I think they’re best placed to win it. They haven’t been far off in previous campaigns and now look more capable of winning against top opposition in Melbourne. If that forward line gets off the chain in a GF it’s a wrap.

 

[magpies42]

The loss of Melksham is a big blow, both for him personally but also for our team structure. Melksham was posing as a real aerial threat that was troubling backlines, as was Petty before him. I really hope losing both of them doesnt cost us the flag, but it definitely costs us versality up forward and the coaching staff now have to re-think how we're going to kick enough goals.

Obviously Grundy is not an option and I don't really even see the wisdom in selecting TMac - he does little more than create a target but can't feel that he's going to be badly exposed given he hasn't played at AFL level for months.

Goody might need to get creative and rotate a few players up forward to see what works. I would start with Smith because of his like for like aerial ability compared to Melksham.

If I were you I’d play Gawn forward and Grundy in the ruck…otherwise Moore will have a field day picking off the pressured kicks inside 50.

Other key match ups in the defensive half for us will be Maynard to Petracca and Murphy to Fritsch.

I think we’ll struggle against your midfield, which is why Melbourne was my least preferred opponent. I’ve regarded Viney as your barometer and key to success for a long time now, he sets the tone and particularly in finals.

I think we have the forward setup to keep your defence accountable, we don’t have any real Petracca like stars but we are very even across the board and rely on our method and consistency to win.

Will be a tight, contested game…the best kind of footy.

 

[Topkent]

If I were you I’d play Gawn forward and Grundy in the ruck…otherwise Moore will have a field day picking off the pressured kicks inside 50.

Lol nope. Just don't bomb it into def 50 all day we don't need to ruin our team by playing Gawn up there

 

[schmuttt]

We have four match winners imo. Tracc, Gawn, May & Fritsch. You could even make a case for Pickett. These are players who if they bring their A game the Pies won’t be able to cope with. Right now I genuinely only regard DeGoey as having that ‘extra gear’ in their line-up. Moore in the first half of the season was on fire but he tapered off and now he’s short of a gallop. N. Daicos outski.

The betting line flatters them given their past month of footy. We should beat them by 3-4 goals.

Frankly, Brisbane and Carlton are the only two sides which worry me of the other finalists. I reckon Collingwood go out in straight sets.

Pies have 3. Moore JDG Elliot.

This is probably one of the most important QFs in years. A loss puts you on the very hard side of the draw, a win puts you as heavy favourite in a MCG prelim.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Lol nope. Just don't bomb it into def 50 all day we don't need to ruin our team by playing Gawn up there

That's where Fritsch is so important to our structure. His ability to lead up at the ball and be dangerous takes away some of Moore's impact as an interceptor. I would think Murphy will go to Fritta and Moore would take the "Tall" (my guess is either Smith or TMac). As long as Fritta gets some space and can hit up hard at the ball it will be hard for the Pies to get in the road.

Kozzie also plays a role here, as he is able to do the same thing. If these guys can get a bit of ball early it will put some doubt in the minds of the defenders.

Of course, this all relies on the ability of our midfield to lower their eyes and honour the leading forwards at every opportunity, which we have been quite hit and miss at over the last couple of years.

 

[mrmonkey]

Pies have 3. Moore JDG Elliot.

This is probably one of the most important QFs in years. A loss puts you on the very hard side of the draw, a win puts you as heavy favourite in a MCG prelim.

Yep I think a win helps avoid Carlton (probably) who are the only dangerous team outside the 4 imo.

 

[BaliDemon]

Yep I think a win helps avoid Carlton (probably) who are the only dangerous team outside the 4 imo.

A win also helps avoid a likely prelim vs Brisbane at the Gabba should you even get past Carlton.

This QF against Pies is not quite for all the marbles but it’s damn close.

 

[BaliDemon]

Pies have 3. Moore JDG Elliot.

This is probably one of the most important QFs in years. A loss puts you on the very hard side of the draw, a win puts you as heavy favourite in a MCG prelim.

I thought about Elliot in terms of matchwinners. Possibly. If you include him then you’d have to include Kozzie for us. Elliot 38 goals, Kozzie 34 goals in 2023.

 

[schmuttt]

I thought about Elliot in terms of matchwinners. Possibly. If you include him then you’d have to include Kozzie for us. Elliot 38 goals, Kozzie 34 goals in 2023.

Elliot has literally kicked a bunch of match winning goals in the last two seasons, probably has more than any other player in the league.

 

[mrmonkey]

It's funny we drafted kozzy because we couldn't land Elliot. There's definitely a reason why the club went after him even though his body was letting him down. Guy has ice in his veins. Set shot after the siren Elliot is your man. Finding a goal from nowhere probably pickett but can't say we've seen enough.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

The more I think about it the harder I think selection is for this week. It's so dire that none of our back up forwards now Melk is out have the footy IQ to play a defensive role on Moore.

If we play TMac his best asset when he's playing well is leading up and taking marks outside F50. But if he plays and does that, he's then going to be kicking it down Moore's throat inside 50. None of Tmac, Smith, Brown, Grundy, Schache have the craft (or physical capability) to sit behind Moore and jump into his back the way Melk has been doing well.

My biggest fear is this game just being another example of the same problems arising - plenty of opportunities wasted through ineffective F50 entries.

I'm starting to think Goody's plan A and B to try and counter this will be Smith playing on the back of Moore with Tmac as sub, or Tmac starting with Smith as sub to change up if Tmac isn't working.

My alternative that I don't think he'll try would be Smith as sub, smaller forwardline of Kosi, Trac, ANB, Chandler, JVR and Fritsch (with Laurie or Woey as the bench rotation).

 

[Toump Ass]

I reckon Brisbane are clear favourites.

They were my preseason tip.
Feel they’re a little soft though. Some real flakes on the team like Rayner, Bailey, Joey D. Cameron been shit when i watched him.

The MCG hoodoo exists until it doesn’t. For whatever reason, they’re shit at the G and I’d bank on us smashing them again here.

 

[booshboy]

They were my preseason tip.
Feel they’re a little soft though. Some real flakes on the team like Rayner, Bailey, Joey D. Cameron been s**t when i watched him.

The MCG hoodoo exists until it doesn’t. For whatever reason, they’re s**t at the G and I’d bank on us smashing them again here.

I dunno, I feel like they've got the wood on us lately. They really should have belted us in our most recent game, we had no right to win it buttttt we did so maybe that gives us the edge back who knows, but I wouldn't be overally confident personally. They've got guns everywhere.

 

[Toump Ass]

I dunno, I feel like they've got the wood on us lately. They really should have belted us in our most recent game, we had no right to win it buttttt we did so maybe that gives us the edge back who knows, but I wouldn't be overally confident personally. They've got guns everywhere.

We were missing Oliver and Fritsch, Petty had 3 disposals (I can't remember if he was injured that game?). Ben Brown and Jordan James were in the side, Spargo and Woewodin too. IMO we're a little stronger now even without Melk and Petty.

FWIW they were missing Dunkley, and won't have Ashcroft this time.

You're right they're a good side but they've finished Top 4 for so long now I just don't trust them to get it done.

 

[mrmonkey]

We were missing Oliver and Fritsch, Petty had 3 disposals (I can't remember if he was injured that game?). Ben Brown and Jordan James were in the side, Spargo and Woewodin too. IMO we're a little stronger now even without Melk and Petty.

FWIW they were missing Dunkley, and won't have Ashcroft this time.

You're right they're a good side but they've finished Top 4 for so long now I just don't trust them to get it done.

Melbourne weren't playing their best footy at that time, don't reckon Brisbane could dominate like that again. Having said that their style does give us problems. They move the ball around well and are good at changing the angles which then disorganise our backline. Hawthorn also seem to do this well but are obviously way too inexperienced to maintain it.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

We beat them last time by shutting down their run out of the backline. If we go into the game with whatever tall stiff who won't chase like crazy in the forward line we're in trouble. Please don't go in tall Crazy Goody.

 

[booshboy]

We beat them last time by shutting down their run out of the backline. If we go into the game with whatever tall stiff who won't chase like crazy in the forward line we're in trouble. Please don't go in tall Crazy Goody.

Grundy played last time so assuming Tmac comes in..they basically cancel each others spudiness out.

Bowey in instead of Hibbo (Id play Hibbo personally)

and Laurie Sub instead of Jordan.

& Clarry instead of Spargo.

Tomlinson played last time, hoping they bring him back over Disco.

 

[BaliDemon]

We beat them last time by shutting down their run out of the backline. If we go into the game with whatever tall stiff who won't chase like crazy in the forward line we're in trouble. Please don't go in tall Crazy Goody.

JVR & Smith kicked 2 goals between them on KBday in a game where we managed 66 points and won by less than a goal.

Grundy also played and did 3 fifths of bugger all.

Not providing a second tall option and proper aerial support for 19yo JVR this time, in a QF no less, would be sheer madness.

TMac has to come in.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Grundy played last time so assuming Tmac comes in..they basically cancel each others spudiness out.

Bowey in instead of Hibbo (Id play Hibbo personally)

and Laurie Sub instead of Jordan.

Think I'd rather just go potato free.

 

[booshboy]

Think I'd rather just go potato free.

Same, but you know we wont. I miss Melk already.

 

[SugarHealey]

I think we’ll struggle against your midfield,

I think our Mids are off just a little, with Oliver of the pace, since returning.

But Viney is making up for it somewhat. And our 2nd string mids have upped the ante.


50/50 race, this one.

 

[Topkent]

Gus has 4 goals in the last 2 years. That's pretty rubbish need him to stand up more. Jack Viney

7

Jack Viney

Age

30

Ht

179cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.1

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

12.6

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

5.7

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

21.8

5star

K

10.3

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

has 8 this year and he is not a goal kicking mid at all

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Gus has 4 goals in the last 2 years. That's pretty rubbish need him to stand up more. Jack Viney has 8 this year and he is not a goal kicking mid at all

counterpoint: keep him near half back/defensive mid so he isn't doing his "duel-sided" thing near goal. Dude seems to be the casual AFL fan's Mark Waugh. kick on the other leg looks smooth so you don't notice that the results are shit. **** me, Jack Viney would be near our best opposite foot kick.