Prediction R21: Changes v Fremantle

[King Elvis]

Based on the two performances tonight the only way Douglas stays ahead of CEY is name and seniority

It's the Crows...

That's enough.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think his zip is still there

I actually think at the moment he is trying to be to team orientated and at times need to play more to his strengths

No need to rest the Rat IMO

no its not .....has been caught holding the ball regularly in the last two weeks, against the worse sides ....do you think that's going to turn around against the better sides, where there's less space?

He's not sharp and can't break away from his man or find space AP

 

[King Elvis]

Not aimed at you KE ......but can't believe week after week, people watch the same game, yet see the game completely differently

You say Douglas not tagged .....another says Douglas tagging
One poster says player "A" is playing wing .....another says HB

It's quite hilarious ....

Confirmation bias.

Douglas can't possibly be that shit - must be tagging.

Mackay only has 3 touches halfway through the second - should be dropped.

We see what we want to see.

 

[BRL121]

Can CEY stay please!

Big bodied mid, does the little things like blocking, shepherds, runs with his man defensively better than any of our mids except Sloane.

Has some versatility to play up forward.

Has more pace than our other mids.

Has a more penetrating kick than most of our mids except Sloane.

If I could choose it would be goodbye Thompson, then Douglas, then M Crouch, then Mackay* before CEY. Thompson first because he offers no versatility and i genuinely believe his lack of spread is the reason when the opposition win a clearance, it's often the dangerous, run through the middle with a deep kick into forward fifty type.
*Last on the list only because of team structure

You're really living up to your username, but I like it.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Confirmation bias.

Douglas can't possibly be that shit - must be tagging.

Mackay only has 3 touches halfway through the second - should be dropped.

We see what we want to see.

Absolutely

 

[BRL121]

Atkins made the same mistakes as last week. Wasn't as bad this week, but has hardly been good in recent weeks

Freshen him up IMO

In: McGovern, Thompson

Out: Atkins, Douglas

If Seeds fails to come up, Atkins stays or we give Wigg a run

He was shocking early, but seemed to gird up his loins after a particularly impotent effort and returned to something like his best after that. I think that was a critical point in his season.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

No, he didn't.

Rich ran around by himself all night - he was just lazy and ineffective; nothing to do with a stopping job.

KE

It looked to me that Douglas had a role in Rich however He was ineffective in this role

 

[mcday]

Out: Douglas, Seed (Inj)

In: McGovern, Thompson

Assuming Jacobs is fit, I'd be surprised if he didn't come back in, despite ROB's solid game. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Atkins, MCrouch, or even Lyons got a rest next week either. Interesting week at selection, lots of players to fit in. Hopefully Cam will get another go, though he didn't necessarily completely confirm his spot in the team.

 

[Crow Envy]

We had 3 outs, assuming they all come back if fit, whose out?

In: McGovern, Thommo and Jacobs
Out: Douglas, Seeds if injured, ROB

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

KE

It looked to me that Douglas had a role in Rich however He was ineffective in this role

Freo have no one worth tagging, so dougie can have a rest.

 

[Crow Envy]

Not aimed at you KE ......but can't believe week after week, people watch the same game, yet see the game completely differently

You say Douglas not tagged .....another says Douglas tagging
One poster says player "A" is playing wing .....another says HB

It's quite hilarious ....

Almost as funny as someone thinking the leading tacklers are defenders

 

[rezagun]

I don't care if Thompson is back in but we have no grounds to drop CEY. Gave us a different look in a variety of positions tonight.

If hed kicked 4 instead of 2 he wouldve put it beyond doubt. Unfortunately leaves the door open.
Mcgovern and thompson will be back with seedsman the only out. Surely douglas has to be in the gun.

 

[Vader]

I think CEY is far too good to be playing SANFL and should be replacing Thompson...

BUT... You can't take anything out of that performance, Brisbane are absolutely putrid...

THAT BEING SAID... You can take something away from Douglas' performance tonight. Completely invisible in a training drill and needs to be dropped.

CEY should be given the dockers and the showdown to prove his worth. When he does, he'll emphasise that he's a crucial missing element to our midfield. Big bodied, tackles hard, neat disposal and good in close. Will be another Lyons if given consistent game time

He might be too good to be playing in the SANFL, but he did nothing tonight to suggest that he belongs in the AFL. He did even less when playing in the midfield - his good moments (most notably those 2 excellent goals) came when he was resting in the forward line.

Put it this way... Mackay is quite rightly criticised for struggling to hit targets, and thus having a low DE. This is a fair criticism - of the 25 Adelaide players to have played 5+ games this year, his average (69%) comes in 19th (stats, including the 5 game qualifier, taken from footywire). Mackay achieved a DE of 81.8% against Brisbane. CEY could only average 55.6%. Only Brodie Smith was worse, with just 52%.

Brisbane put almost no pressure on the ball carrier, at any stage in this game. 14 of our 22 players finised with a DE greater than 79%. That includes most of our inside midfielders, like Sloane and the Crouch brothers, who normally average around 66-72%. Pretty much all of our players finished with DEs considerably higher than their season averages. Yet CEY only managed to hit targets at 55.6%. That's not a good sign.

Those two goals were really, really good. The goal he kicked from the boundary line was outstanding. Unfortunately, those were almost the only kicks that he got right all night.

 

[Footypie32]

Is Seedsman actually injured or just sore?

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Not sure how anyone could justify Douglas keeping his spot ahead of CEY.

In: Wigg (if Seedsman injured), McGovern
Out: Seedsman (if injured), Douglas

Thommo will most likely come straight back but Wigg deserves a go in place of the Seed.

 

[1970crow]

We won't be resting players anymore there's 3 rounds left...

How's your resting prediction been so far? Not saying we will or won't, just keen to see how reliable your rest predictions are so far.

 

[rezagun]

Based on the two performances tonight the only way Douglas stays ahead of CEY is name and seniority

Brereton couldnt believe he was playing sanfl all season. 'Hes too good not to be playing afl'. 'Look at the size of him' Dont be suprised if he ends up at hawthorn if he leaves via tradeweek. That could be nasty.

 

[SloaneysDanger]

How's your resting prediction been so far? Not saying we will or won't, just keen to see how reliable your rest predictions are so far.

Pre Essendon and Brisbane I predicted at some stage over the two week period Gov, Thommo, Sauce and Tex would need a rest. The first two rightfully got their rest this week and the other two were forced out of the side due to injury.

 

[CEY Crow]

You'd have to expect that Jacobs, Thompson & McGovern will all be back next week. I assume Seedsman will miss due to injury, and O'Brien won't hold his position if Jacobs is ready to return.

Really not sure what to make of CEY's game tonight. Gave us very little in the midfield, which is where Thommo shines. On the other hand, he was extremely dangerous when resting in the forward line. His 2 goals were brilliant kicks, but the rest of his kicking left a fair bit to be desired. As a result, he had a DE of just 55.6% (only Brodie Smith was worse, with 52%). To put that into context, we had 13 players at 80% or better, plus Rory Sloane with 79.4%. 55.6% might have been about average against Geelong, it's a dismal result against Brisbane.

I just know that people are going to focus on those 2 goals (which were superb kicks) and say he's a great kick. That ignores all of the other kicks which missed their targets quite badly. He finished with just 18 disposals - only 6 players had less, and one of those was Seedsman (injured in the first quarter). His future selection depends on how important the selectors think those goals are/were, because he didn't do anywhere near enough in the middle to justify keeping his position.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see CEY dropped for Thompson this week, and doing so would be the right decision. However, there's a fair case that Douglas contributed even less than CEY, so I could also see a case for CEY staying and Douglas missing out.

I'm sorry, but why do you quote stats without looking into them the tiniest bit?

Disposal efficiency is largely dictated by a few key factors:
a) Handball to kick ratio (handballs are easier to execute than kicks)
b) contested possession ratio (kicking in contested situations harder than in space)
c) if your kicks are mostly in the forward half, or back half (harder to pinpoint pass into F50, easier to chip ball around back half as defender).

The obvious consequence of these factors is that defenders consistently have the highest disposal efficiency - doesn't make them the best kicks. Daniel Talia had the best disposal efficiency for the match! He is probably the last person in our team I would want shooting for goal after the siren on GF day to win the match!

Scraping the surface of the statistic you use as evidence that CEY is a poor kick (or you could just use your eyes and watch the game, the way the ball leaves his boot (a very good spin in nearly every case), watching his action and follow through and it is obvious - he is an OK kick, not great, not bad):

a) CEY has 10 kicks to 8 handballs (56% kicks), the great D Mackay has 6 kicks to 16handballs (27% K), Brad Crouch has 12K and 22H. R Sloane 16K to 18H....the other "poor disposal" player you mentioned B Smith 19K 6H...Talia 12K 15H...see the correlation?

b) CEY has 8/18 contested possessions (44%). D Mackay had 27% contested possessions. M Crouch had 19% contested possession.

c) CEY spent a large part of the game playing forward...in the Douglas/Lyons role. He didn't replace Thompson like-for-like and play at 80% of the stoppages. This is clear because he was absent at the majority of centre bounces. This freed up J Lyons to play at more stoppages, and Lyons won 6 clearances and 4 centre clearances. I would like to see Lyons at more centre clearances. I would like to see CEY in more games.

Let me re-iterate, CEY is not a great kick. He is just not a bad kick like so many on here claim. Anyone who watched the game tonight can see he is an OK kick, and I would say he is better than both M Crouch and Thompson, because he has much better penetration in his kicking.

One point I agree with you is he didn't look aggressive enough in the middle.

On the other hand, his attack on the ball when crumbing forward was excellent. His goal assist to Tex, the grab, spin and near goal also in the second quarter were both well read and well manoeuvred. To claim all he added was the two goals is a massive understatement - versatility, spread from the contest, reasonable mark overhead...he looked good tonight, albeit very lowly opposition.

Finally, from 18 disposals the kick that was touched on the line counts as ineffective because it was a point. Yet it was a beautiful, long, straight kick. Change that to an effective disposal and he gets 61% disposal effectiveness.

PS. CEY only had 1 clanger, M Crouch had 4.Last week, S Thompson had 4 clangers. S Thompson also had a DE of 72% against Essendon with 12K to 17H (41% K) and only 9 contested possessions from 29 (31%).

An example of how stats need to be read intelligently, or they can do more harm in interpreting events than good.

if i get some spare time, I'll set up a model relating disposal efficiency to K/H ratio and CP ratio and we will see who really are the poor kicks in the team. But it's easier to just watch the game.

 

[1970crow]

Based on the two performances tonight the only way Douglas stays ahead of CEY is name and seniority

Well that's 2 out of 2. Really having a poor year

 

[the universal]

Not really sure I want to see Thompson rushed back in, I don't think it's all at necessary, and it would be hugely unfair for CEY to be dropped for him after his good showing. Douglas and Mackay were non-entities again, the former's just not providing enough for a player of his calibre. Depending on how injured Seed is, I would like to see at least one of Hampton/Wigg/Menzel brought in. It's time.

 

[rocket18]

Have to laugh at people bagging CEY disposals, his first game of the year, about his 10th all up. Surprise his d.e. doesn't quite match up to a 150 game player.

Forget the stats, my eyes allowed me to see CEY even at this stsge of his development offers more NOW than a number of our senior players.

 

[CEY Crow]

He might be too good to be playing in the SANFL, but he did nothing tonight to suggest that he belongs in the AFL. He did even less when playing in the midfield - his good moments (most notably those 2 excellent goals) came when he was resting in the forward line.

Put it this way... Mackay is quite rightly criticised for struggling to hit targets, and thus having a low DE. This is a fair criticism - of the 25 Adelaide players to have played 5+ games this year, his average (69%) comes in 19th (stats, including the 5 game qualifier, taken from footywire). Mackay achieved a DE of 81.8% against Brisbane. CEY could only average 55.6%. Only Brodie Smith was worse, with just 52%.

Brisbane put almost no pressure on the ball carrier, at any stage in this game. 14 of our 22 players finised with a DE greater than 79%. That includes most of our inside midfielders, like Sloane and the Crouch brothers, who normally average around 66-72%. Pretty much all of our players finished with DEs considerably higher than their season averages. Yet CEY only managed to hit targets at 55.6%. That's not a good sign.

Those two goals were really, really good. The goal he kicked from the boundary line was outstanding. Unfortunately, those were almost the only kicks that he got right all night.

Mackay had 6 kicks and 16 handballs. Higher handballs usually leads to higher disposal efficiency. Why do you keep harping on on statistic without paying any attention to the detail underlying that statistic?

 

[Vader]

I'm sorry, but why do you quote stats without looking into them the tiniest bit?

Disposal efficiency is largely dictated by a few key factors:
a) Handball to kick ratio (handballs are easier to execute than kicks)
b) contested possession ratio (kicking in contested situations easier than in space)
c) if your kicks are mostly in the forward half, or back half (harder to pinpoint pass into F50, easier to chip ball around back half as defender).

The obvious consequence of these factors is that defenders consistently have the highest disposal efficiency - doesn't make them the best kicks. Daniel Talia had the best disposal efficiency for the match! He is probably the last person in our team I would want shooting for goal after the siren on GF day to win the match!

Scraping the surface of the statistic you use as evidence that CEY is a poor kick (or you could just use your eyes and watch the game, the way the ball leaves his boot (a very good spin in nearly every case), watching his action and follow through and it is obvious - he is an OK kick, not great, not bad):

a) CEY has 10 kicks to 8 handballs (56% kicks), the great D Mackay has 6 kicks to 16handballs (27% K), Brad Crouch has 12K and 22H. R Sloane 16K to 18H....the other "poor disposal" player you mentioned B Smith 19K 6H...Talia 12K 15H...see the correlation?

b) CEY has 8/18 contested possessions (44%). D Mackay had 27% contested possessions. M Crouch had 19% contested possession.

c) CEY spent a large part of the game playing forward...in the Douglas/Lyons role. He didn't replace Thompson like-for-like and play at 80% of the stoppages. This is clear because he was absent at the majority of centre bounces. This freed up J Lyons to play at more stoppages, and Lyons won 6 clearances and 4 centre clearances. I would like to see Lyons at more centre clearances. I would like to see CEY in more games.

Let me re-iterate, CEY is not a great kick. He is just not a bad kick like so many on here claim. Anyone who watched the game tonight can see he is an OK kick, and I would say he is better than both M Crouch and Thompson, because he has much better penetration in his kicking.

One point I agree with you is he didn't look aggressive enough in the middle.

On the other hand, his attack on the ball when crumbing forward was excellent. His goal assist to Tex, the grab, spin and near goal also in the second quarter were both well read and well manoeuvred. To claim all he added was the two goals is a massive understatement - versatility, spread from the contest, reasonable mark overhead...he looked good tonight, albeit very lowly opposition.

Finally, from 18 disposals the kick that was touched on the line counts as ineffective because it was a point. Yet it was a beautiful, long, straight kick. Change that to an effective disposal and he gets 61% disposal effectiveness.

PS. CEY only had 1 clanger, M Crouch had 4.Last week, S Thompson had 4 clangers. S Thompson also had a DE of 72% against Essendon with 12K to 17H (41% K) and only 9 contested possessions from 29 (31%).

An example of how stats need to be read intelligently, or they can do more harm in interpreting events than good.

if i get some spare time, I'll set up a model relating disposal efficiency to K/H ratio and CP ratio and we will see who really are the poor kicks in the team. But it's easier to just watch the game.

Sorry, but you're really stretching it here. There simply isn't any justifying a player having a DE of just 55.6% in that game. Brisbane applied almost no pressure at all, so everyone had above average DEs. The fact is that CEY went at 55.6% in a game were 20 of our 22 players went at 66% or better, and more than half of them went at better than 80%.

If David Mackay, Rory Sloane, Matt & Brad Crouch can all achieve 79% or better, then it's a low pressure game. Sloane & the Crouch brothers are CEY's peers, as inside mids. I use Mackay as an example, because he's a noted under-achiever in the DE stakes. Yet all of these players significantly outperformed CEY.

There's not a whole lot of point in making comparisons against the Essendon game, because Essendon actually tried to pressure the ball carrier. With pressure applied, the DEs were lower - only 7 players went at 80%, where 13 achieved that mark this week.

This was the easiest possible game that CEY could have played. Even so, he only managed 18 disposals at 55.6%. He's not going to be forcing anyone out of the team on those stats.

 

[MRB37]

Is Seedsman actually injured or just sore?

I'd assumed it was just the no risk policy in play.

At this stage I'd have Dougy as a definite out for Thompson. That leaves 2 coming out for McGovern and Jacobs, so it depends on how Seeds pulls up and if they want to give CEY and ROB another game, otherwise you'd think Mackay or Atkins might be in the firing line.