Preview Rd 1 Geelong V Collingwood Fri March 17 2023 740 pm @ MCG

Predicted winner & margin

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dazbroncos

dazbroncos

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aaaaaaaaand we're back.

It does feel mighty special to walk into the new season with the Silverware glistening nicely (albeit covering in fingerprints form every mofo on the face of the planet getting selfies with it except me .... but I digress....) in the Hardware cupboard.

But with success comes great expectations and responsibility.

This time last year we were coming off an 83 point PF loss.... and there were lots of questions.

Now there are lots of questions, but in a different sense.

We are now the hunted again. How will we respond to that? . Can we carry the injuries and management thru as we did last year? Will the new recruits and 2nd / 3rd players be able to improve. We wont have changed too much I feel in game style - but you have to improve as everyone else will have - and they also will have dissected you to the extreme over summer looking to emulate and exceed.

WE are also a year older - didnt matter last year did it - but others have copied too. Look for more rotations weekly of aged players and management thru the season.

Which brings us to Rd1

The QF last year turned out to be the hardest game of the year - 90k at the G and the Pies threw everything at us - and we got home by the smallest of margins.

They will be coming and ready with a point to prove.

We have question marks over our best 23... mainly injury and preparation based. Might see a new face or 2 but the most glaring will be the missing 14.

A moment of respect if you please for that






















But as with everything, life moves on and now its Paddy's turn.

And so we will see what happens from here.

Its time to finish watching the Greatest Team of All 2022 version, and see how the 2023 version fares.

It wont be easy, and it will be fun. Lets get them home on this first step into the march to September.

GO Catters
 

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On balance I think we have a better list than last year, but so have others. Dees, Tiggers and Pies look threatening and perhaps the Doggies.

This will be a tough first up and I would not be surprised (but not too worried) if we get done.
 
I'm just excited to see footy again. I feel good about our chances, but if I weren't a Geelong man I'd probably tip the Pies they will have an axe to grind, we won't. Would be great to get the win, but equally will let alot of pressure out if we get done and industry expectations are tempered somewhat.
 
Tough game to start the year for sure, but a couple of things jumped out at me after watching the Fox Footy doco on the Cats.

1/ Chris Scott stated in the interview with Whateley that after the Saints loss (our last loss for the year) we were 5-4 from memory, and he was pretty happy with where the side sat on the ledger. Thought they would continue to improve and build in the second half of the year once they became more adept at the new game style. So I guess the point there is that we can all fall into the trap of thinking winning every week is critical ........ I expect Geelong to drop a few in the first half of the year, but we should also keep in mind that we have a heavily back ended fixture of 'home' games to come in the back end. If we stay fit and fresh, I think we'll come home strong if we just stay close to the pack in the first half of the season.

2/ Was also interested to see the comments from Selwood and others about that Collingwood QF. I think Joel said they knew exactly what they didn't execute in that game, and it was easily rectified before the PF against the Lions. Interesting that he also said they allowed the crowd to really impact / distract from what they wanted to execute - thought that was interesting. So aside from our starting 22 and who is injured / missing, I think it tells me that the club knows what they need to execute and will likely have learned a bit from that last game against Collingwood. Both sides will look a little different but it really just comes down to execution.

# So for Rd1 - Esava to Mason Cox (when he's inside 50) seems obvious enough. Henry a bit of a loss if Hawkins doesn't get up - but Hawkins seems better than 50/50 based on comments from him and the club in recent days.

# You'd think Cameron will play unless his partner goes into labour late in the day on game day. If he's out then that clearly swings the match into Collingwood's favour. Lose and I don't think you'd read too much into the result if both Hawkins and Cameron miss. If we win under that scenario - sell everything you own and get on the Cats for a flag assault.
 
A highlight of the game will be Joel doing a walk to the G and a lap of honor with the flag. (The flag unfurling is in rnd 6)

I suspect TBone won't play this one. I think the Cats will be very competitive and will start the year well.
 
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Round 1 last year against the bombers we got a preview of what this side was capable of:
Danger back to his best,
A dangerous small forward,
An exciting young key defender,
A key-forward combo still developing their mojo,
Blicavs given the freedom of a midfield role,
A game plan that was still a bit raw and rough around the edges, but one where nearly everyone could see the purpose and direction.
Like most years we're going to have to improve to stay still. And we're going to have to innovate to go forward. So where does it come from? No doubt there's lots to be excited about our off-season recruitment. That sets a club up in the medium to long term. But it doesn't guarantee anything in the here and now.
The pies will be hard to beat in front of their army of fans. And we all know how a PF defeat can steel a side to attack the new season hard.
Do they know what they're likely to face on St Patrick's Day? I doubt it. For a reigning premier who would have thought our team sheet would be so hard to predict for round 1?
I dare say we see some new faces as well as perhaps some new avenues to goal. By the end of the season though, I'd prefer it if we were looking back at this game for the smart innovations that were there from the beginning of the season instead of seeing only a kind of continuation of a status quo from 2022.
 

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Jez is super important against Collingwood. Their backs like the ball to come in high and do very well to double team key forwards and intercept mark. Jez's mobility makes it hard for them to match up. I also think that the speed of Close, Stengle and Miers and their run gets the Pies back six out of their comfort zone. Be interesting to see who goes to De Goey, he looks in good touch and gets important touches. Our forwards are better than their backs and our backs are better than their forwards but they are strong through the middle. Regardless they'll keep coming at us so I expect it will be tight.
 
The Premier almost always starts the season well, the confidence from a Premiership win, just five months ago, makes them very hard to beat early on.

Geelong will kick away in second half to win by 5 goals.

If Cameron and Hawkins miss, I would revise this tip. If one of them plays, that would be enough.
 
The AFLs predicted/mock team for Rnd1

Geelong v Collingwood, MCG, 7.40pm AEDT

GEELONG

B: Jed Bews, Sam De Koning, Zach Guthrie
HB: Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Stewart, Zach Tuohy
C: Isaac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Max Holmes
HF: Brad Close, Jeremy Cameron, Brandan Parfitt
F: Tyson Stengle, Ollie Henry, Gryan Miers
Foll: Rhys Stanley, Cam Guthrie, Tom Atkins
I/C: Mark Blicavs, Mark O'Connor, Jack Bowes, Gary Rohan
EMERG: Esava Ratugolea, Tanner Bruhn, Ollie Dempsey, Jon Ceglar

NEW: Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn
UNAVAILABLE: Tom Hawkins (foot), Mitch Duncan (calf), Jack Henry (foot)

NOTES: While Hawkins and Duncan are yet to be ruled out of round one, they have missed both practice matches and are facing a race to be fit in time. Chris Scott may choose not to risk them off an interrupted preparation. Henry looks set to face his old side, while Bowes and Bruhn have impressed across the summer and could get the nod first up. One of them could be the sub. Blicavs played everywhere last year, so we wait to see what the Cats do with the veteran utility in 2023. Ratugolea has transformed into a key defender in the past 12 months and will come under strong consideration after featuring in both practice matches. Rohan returned in Brisbane last week and should be good to go in round one. – Josh Gabelich
 
BlakeyNoFlakey said:
A highlight of the game will be Joel doing a lap of honor with the flag. (The flag unfurling is officially the week after when we play at home)

I suspect TBone won't play this one. I think the Cats will be very competitive and will start the year well.
Click to expand...

The Flag unfurling isn't until Rnd 6 - our round 2 match is also at the MCG, but unlike Rnd 1 we're the away team with it being a Carlton home game on a Thursday night
 
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