Player Watch Rookie Pick #45 (2015) - Dan Houston

[OneGreatClub]

Essendon hilariously paid two first rounders for Dylan Shiel. Jeremy Cameron was three first rounders.

What was Gibbs?

 

[davesnothere]

Is that confirmed that we are after pick 2?

We'll take it.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Some of the bigger trades of the last 7 or 8 years (not include any steak knives picks beyond mid 30's)

Tim Taranto ->12 and 19
Josh Dunkley (plus change) -> 21 + F1 + F2
Jeremy Cameron (plus 2x F2) -> 13 + 15 +20
Tim Kelly (plus change) -> 14 + 24 + F1
Brad Hill (plus change) -> 10 + F2 + Acres
Wingard -> Burton + 15
Neale + 30 -> 6 + 19
Jesse Hogan (Melb to Freo) -> 6 + 23
Shiel + F2 -> 9 + F1
Lever + 35 -> 10 + F1
Gibbs + F2 -> 10 + 16 + F2
O'Meara (to Hawks) -> 10 + F2

You need to take into account the relative perceived strengths of the drafts in how picks are valued, but if we do manage to get a top 10 plus another first rounder for Houston that would be right up there with the biggest trades in recent history. Hence I think it's more realistic to expect a top 10 + F2 type deal.

We should take out deals inviting GC and Freo. They skew the data.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Some of the bigger trades of the last 7 or 8 years (not include any steak knives picks beyond mid 30's)

Tim Taranto ->12 and 19
Josh Dunkley (plus change) -> 21 + F1 + F2
Jeremy Cameron (plus 2x F2) -> 13 + 15 +20
Tim Kelly (plus change) -> 14 + 24 + F1
Brad Hill (plus change) -> 10 + F2 + Acres
Wingard -> Burton + 15
Neale + 30 -> 6 + 19
Jesse Hogan (Melb to Freo) -> 6 + 23
Shiel + F2 -> 9 + F1
Lever + 35 -> 10 + F1
Gibbs + F2 -> 10 + 16 + F2
O'Meara (to Hawks) -> 10 + F2

You need to take into account the relative perceived strengths of the drafts in how picks are valued, but if we do manage to get a top 10 plus another first rounder for Houston that would be right up there with the biggest trades in recent history. Hence I think it's more realistic to expect a top 10 + F2 type deal.

Of those deals only Cameron I would rate above Houston.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FishingRick04]

We should take out deals inviting GC and Freo. They skew the data.

On SM-G975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Lever Shiel about right

 

[Chewy316]

He wants to get to a Victorian contender. Specifically, he wants to get to Carlton, where Vossy is doing an enormous amount of work to get him.

The sense I get is that Port aren't just going to roll over and give him away for a handful of magic beans.

 

[Ropable]

It's all very simple, we trade Houston to North for 2 and 22

Use those picks to draft Sid Draper and Alex Dodson from under the Camrys

Win-Win

 

[FishingRick04]

It's all very simple, we trade Houston to North for 2 and 22

Use those picks to draft Sid Draper and Alex Dodson from under the Camrys

Win-Win

I like and if he doesn’t want to go to North, well. Carlton trade with North to get the picks, maybe McKay will go there lol

 

[240volt]

Looks like the bigger Vic clubs will end up being the ones putting forward a deal.
Can’t see them handing over what we should be getting.
Still believe he stays.

 

[Port 2004]

Looks like the bigger Vic clubs will end up being the ones putting forward a deal.
Can’t see them handing over what we should be getting.
Still believe he stays.

The thing is, if he goes they will have to hand over essentially what we are asking because he is still under contract and a long one at that. If we don’t get what we are asking he stays.

 

[gbear]

He wants to get to a Victorian contender. Specifically, he wants to get to Carlton, where Vossy is doing an enormous amount of work to get him.

The sense I get is that Port aren't just going to roll over and give him away for a handful of magic beans.

And nor should they. He has signed a contract and if he is desperate to get to Victoria then the best draft picks win, otherwise he stays put.

 

[philthy05]

Some of the bigger trades of the last 7 or 8 years (not include any steak knives picks beyond mid 30's)

Tim Taranto ->12 and 19
Josh Dunkley (plus change) -> 21 + F1 + F2
Jeremy Cameron (plus 2x F2) -> 13 + 15 +20
Tim Kelly (plus change) -> 14 + 24 + F1
Brad Hill (plus change) -> 10 + F2 + Acres
Wingard -> Burton + 15
Neale + 30 -> 6 + 19
Jesse Hogan (Melb to Freo) -> 6 + 23
Shiel + F2 -> 9 + F1
Lever + 35 -> 10 + F1
Gibbs + F2 -> 10 + 16 + F2
O'Meara (to Hawks) -> 10 + F2

You need to take into account the relative perceived strengths of the drafts in how picks are valued, but if we do manage to get a top 10 plus another first rounder for Houston that would be right up there with the biggest trades in recent history. Hence I think it's more realistic to expect a top 10 + F2 type deal.

Pretty sure every single bloke you’ve named there was either a free agent, out of contract or 1 year remaining on their contract.

Maybe Gibbs might have had more than a year when he eventually got traded?

 

[240volt]

The players look like me before I have a crap.

 

[It Just Is]

After last night, I’m more comfortable that pick 11 and a future first is not bad business. We would be losing a very good player but it is where we have the most depth.

The extra cap space for Perryman probably should be counted too.

 

[PJ Power]

After last night, I’m more comfortable that pick 11 and a future first is not bad business. We would be losing a very good player but it is where we have the most depth.

The extra cap space for Perryman probably should be counted too.

Personally, I think that would be a fair return too. Pick 11 and their F1 next year with nothing else going back. It’s the minimum acceptable return for him. It only becomes tolerable for us if Perryman is coming our way, and if we can use the future first for someone like Lukosius.

I don’t rate Lukosius but I am almost convinced that Marshall’s career will come to an early end and he would be a reasonable replacement.

 

[TeeKray]

I'm prefacing this by saying that Houston is a fantastic player and arguably the best half back in the league.

But we're seeing right now how easy it is to find good half backs. Burton came in and played well before getting injured. Sinn slotted in nicely. Burgoyne got pushed back and played a phenomenal game.

It's the easiest position to play on the ground. None of these guys are Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

but they don't need to be. What we get in a trade only needs to make up for the difference between Houston and any of the above. That won't be too difficult to achieve.

 

[ibd77]

Is there any thing in the rules to say you can't appeal again mid suspension term?

 

[davesnothere]

After last night, I’m more comfortable that pick 11 and a future first is not bad business. We would be losing a very good player but it is where we have the most depth.

The extra cap space for Perryman probably should be counted too.

Problem is 11 is about 14 in reality.

Probably just out of touch of a player we would be really keen on. We may be able to combine those picks and trade up but it's less than ideal.

 

[all seeing eye]

Need to get Dees involved again.

 

[Ant Bear]

Just putting it out there - if we win next week, Houston will be available round 1 next season

 

[Powerade 08]

This is why you dont spend 20 years of first round picks on flankers.

Houston himself a rookie pick, and every kent on the list can do an acceptable job replacing him

Now cough up 2 firsts. thankyou

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Still think his most likely destination is Melbourne.

 

[Addy23]

If I were in the list management team, I'd be pushing Dan towards Dees. I'm not a fan of Carlton's pick 11 which will likely become 12 or 13 this year. And for all we know they could make a prelim next year and that F1 after NGA and F/S can again be around pick 17-20. That in my eyes is Unders for Dan. I'd absolutely be pushing for a top 8 picks plus a F1.

Demons were willing to offer that and even if they now pull back and offer pick 5 I'd take it along with 25 (which they should get for ANB) and another 2nd rounder (maybe future).

If not, push him towards Kangas for their F1. I would then split that into 2 mid to late first rounds.

Dealing with Carlton on this is dangerous and won't get us the best outcome. They already don't want to trade 11 which is delusional!

 

[PJ Power]

If I were in the list management team, I'd be pushing Dan towards Dees. I'm not a fan of Carlton's pick 11 which will likely become 12 or 13 this year. And for all we know they could make a prelim next year and that F1 after NGA and F/S can again be around pick 17-20. That in my eyes is Unders for Dan. I'd absolutely be pushing for a top 8 picks plus a F1.

Demons were willing to offer that and even if they now pull back and offer pick 5 I'd take it along with 25 (which they should get for ANB) and another 2nd rounder (maybe future).

If not, push him towards Kangas for their F1. I would then split that into 2 mid to late first rounds.

Dealing with Carlton on this is dangerous and won't get us the best outcome. They already don't want to trade 11 which is delusional!

Agree with this. Disappointed in Houston wanting out for whatever the reason. His choice of club should have very low influence IMO in this case. We need to hold the whip very tight in this trade and make sure we get the best possible deal to land whoever we have our eye on. As I’ve said above, if Rozee has been in Lukosius’ ear and Lukosius is a target that our list manager and coaches want, then I expect us to make it happen. I don’t know how I feel about it properly but he’s a reasonable replacement for Marshall although less of an imposing target than even Todd has been. He has some other qualities though.

If we can turn Houston into a top 12 pick, Lukosius and also get Perryman, then that’s good business. If we can use Clurey to get the later draft pick to make sure we can get all of Rome Burgoyne, Barrett and Montgomery, and find someone else to land us Richards, then even better. Cumming would be the icing on the cake.

 

[Addy23]

Agree with this. Disappointed in Houston wanting out for whatever the reason. His choice of club should have very low influence IMO in this case. We need to hold the whip very tight in this trade and make sure we get the best possible deal to land whoever we have our eye on. As I’ve said above, if Rozee has been in Lukosius’ ear and Lukosius is a target that our list manager and coaches want, then I expect us to make it happen. I don’t know how I feel about it properly but he’s a reasonable replacement for Marshall although less of an imposing target than even Todd has been. He has some other qualities though.

If we can turn Houston into a top 12 pick, Lukosius and also get Perryman, then that’s good business. If we can use Clurey to get the later draft pick to make sure we can get all of Rome Burgoyne, Barrett and Montgomery, and find someone else to land us Richards, then even better. Cumming would be the icing on the cake.

Largely agree. I think Marshall's loss makes Luko's acquisition more important. I initially didn't want him for that forward role but now that I think Todd is done it almost becomes a must get because he have little quality depth there.

The part I disagree is the top 12 pick you mentioned. I'd want that to be top 8 in this draft.

Barrett perhaps the only one that goes in the national draft for which we may need to match. I think there's a good chance the other 3 go in the 4th round or rookie draft so I'm not too worried about matching.

The other thing is, I'm sorta hoping we lose Evans and Narkle as UFAs to another club as that would get us a couple of 3rd round compos. I hope there's interest from elsewhere and we don't need to delist them.

I'm also open to trading Burton if it gets us a decent pick.

I would say if our overall trade window is as follows then I'd take it as a success

Out: Houston, Soldo, Clurey, FEvans and Narkle
In: top 8 pick, Luko, Perryman, Richards and some late picks