Preview Round 15 - Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions, Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:45 pm real time

[BuntonRules]

Problem is that McKenna will only get better with game time.

So will Brain. Is well worth a starting spot.

Just an aside. For a player I did not rate - Lohmann is blossoming. Is up there with Motty as players to watch.

 

[BangyBangy]

Listening to SEN this arvo with Finey, Maher & Gazey. The loser of this game won't make the Grand Final. That's disappointing to hear. Ah well........

I know media will always media, but keep your powder dry fellas lol. We're one game out of the top 8 with ten games to go, & Port are in the 8 currently.

If it was 5 games to go then yeah, go nuts with the big dramatic all or nothing declarations, but this season will have so many twists & turns, you can't rule anything out yet. So tight.

 

[McIvor]

Was hoping Rioli wouldn’t get up; he was pulls a number of goals out his arse.

 

[BangyBangy]

Since round 5 port have only kicked two decent scores. What everyone thought was a great win against Geelong (101) (Geelong have only beaten Richmond in five games since that game), and Norf (107).

First to 90 points wins the game? Probably 80 really.

 

[pod17]

If we are genuinely going to do anything with this season, we will win this weekend and win well (5 goals +). All due respect to Port, they are an average side, who will miss the class of Butters badly.

 

[jasonrampage2010]

If we are genuinely going to do anything with this season, we will win this weekend and win well (5 goals +). All due respect to Port, they are an average side, who will miss the class of Butters badly.

They will miss his class because he will be tagged?

 

[BangyBangy]

If we are genuinely going to do anything with this season, we will win this weekend and win well (5 goals +). All due respect to Port, they are an average side, who will miss the class of Butters badly.

Unless you have some inside injury news that we don't know about Butters will play.

Port have a solid midfield but are certainly lacking at either end of the ground. Both their forward line & back line will have to punch above their weight to get the win I reckon. Certainly doable, but we get a good say in whether or not that happens.

 

[pod17]

They will miss his class because he will be tagged?

Wowee, shows how well I am going! Didn't see that he got off. That is a shame for us. Regardless, backing us in to get the W.

 

[Nunez]

Hope Brain gets a full game. McKenna is badly out of form and don't really subscribe to the idea of letting him get better in the 1s. A loss Saturday probably rules out any run at top 4 and we don't have the luxury of carrying someone.

Hopefully I am proven wrong and McKenna shows us his 2023 form, but even with his improved performances, it is very clear he needs to spend time getting fitter and confident in his body. A few weeks off to do that would not be a bad idea, especially after Brain shined in the VFL.

 

[McIvor]

Do it for Dad

 

[Grasshopper17]

If we're on there is no reason why we can't beat them - their season has been far from impressive, with their home record pretty meh really.

R1 they knock off WCE (we know what they were like) by 50pts at home.
R2 they knock off Richmond (we know what they were like) by 30 at the G.
R3 they let the Demons, who are average at best (let's be honest), in for a 7pt win at home.
R4 they smash Essendon (a fake top 8 side) at home.
R5 they hold on to defeat Fremantle by 3pts at home.
R6 they return to the G and Collingwood handle them quite easily.
R7 they defeat SaintsFooty by 10pt at home.
R8 and it's the Crows who salute by 30pts (Port kicking 5.18).
R9 and they knock off Geelong down at the Cattery.
R10 and they beat Hawks by just the solitary point at home.
R11 they smash Norf, who were horrendous at that point in time, at Marvel.
R12 and the Blews knock them off at home.
R14 and they never really threaten GWS who kick 9.19 (Port kicking 6.15) at Giants Stadium.

Wouldn't be getting too up and about over Port's record this year... We are 0-5 against top 8 teams.

 

[McIvor]

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Wouldn't be getting too up and about over Port's record this year... We are 0-5 against top 8 teams.

That's a bit selective, though. Considering positions 9-12 are only 2 points outside the 8 and we've beaten three of them (which is why all three find themselves just outside the 8), it's not an entirely fair argument.

Not that I'm saying I'm confident about this one. But if we do win it, I think there's a really, really strong argument that we're a legitimate contender again.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I would go McKenna as the sub and Shadeau to start, another option for sub could be Reville.

Hope Brain gets a full game. McKenna is badly out of form and don't really subscribe to the idea of letting him get better in the 1s. A loss Saturday probably rules out any run at top 4 and we don't have the luxury of carrying someone.

Unfortunately McKenna has been named on the field.



With that bench, if there were any justice in the world Bailey would be the sub, because he was poor last week. But I can't see it happening. Brain is almost certainly the sub.

 

[Dalions]

Wouldn't be getting too up and about over Port's record this year... We are 0-5 against top 8 teams.

So we’re due.

 

[Grasshopper17]

That's a bit selective, though. Considering positions 9-12 are only 2 points outside the 8 and we've beaten three of them (which is why all three find themselves just outside the 8), it's not an entirely fair argument.

Not that I'm saying I'm confident about this one. But if we do win it, I think there's a really, really strong argument that we're a legitimate contender again.

I think at our best we're already a legitimate contender. We've been a legitimate contender the whole season, ever since we put together what is arguably still the best football of the season in the first quarter against Carlton.

The challenge for us has been finding that "best", or close enough to it, consistently.

As such, to me, whether we see enough of it to get across the line tomorrow doesn't really change whether we're a legitimate contender. The only thing that can possibly affect that at this stage is how consistently we're able to play at that high level, between now and whenever our season ends.

So I'm pretty cautious of making any "we're back" statements. We all thought that after the Melbourne win and it proved to be a false dawn. I (and I'm sure others) will be reluctant to make the same statements again.

Ultimately the game is played by human beings, not robots, and quite frankly, none of us would be super surprised if we won tomorrow by 10 goals, played awesome, then came out next Friday, lost to Melbourne and played rubbish.

 

[Grasshopper17]

So we’re due.

You are also due just quietly. Winless on the road this year are you not?

 

[Dalions]

You are also due just quietly. Winless on the road this year are you not?

Ssshhh!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Ssshhh!

If we lose tomorrow I'm anointing you the new honorary owner of the Dom Fay curse!

 

[Dalions]

If we lose tomorrow I'm anointing you the new honorary owner of the Dom Fay curse!

I don’t want to hear about it!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Reckon it’s got real potential to be a shootout tomorrow, potentially to our detriment in front of a pretty hostile crowd. Much will likely depend on the work we’ve done on our defensive transition this week.

I’ve had a look at some stats, particularly areas where we are strong while they are weak, and vice versa. I’ve massaged it a bit into some more generic aspects of the game we can possibly exploit and/or be exploited. The TL;DR of it is, don’t get obliterated out of the middle, win stoppages around the ground, put pressure on their disposal going inside 50, isolate their key defenders, and pressure hard to lock the ball in if it comes to ground. We are certainly good enough to win tomorrow, but these are the keys to getting the job done.



What we will need to get right

Defending inside 50s - This looks problematic from the point of view of both conceding marks inside 50, and conceding shots at goal. We’ve been poor in these aspects of late, while Port have been good at converting their entries into marks and/or shots. The defensive transition from our midfield will need to improve tomorrow, particularly with respect to being able to clog up that launch zone 40-80m from Port’s goal.

Intercepts - We have been struggling to force turnovers in recent weeks, while Port have been good at maintaining possession as well. We will either need to turn this aspect of our game around, or win more stoppages.

Bounces - Bit of a niche stat here but on a longer ground this could come into play. We don’t take many bounces but allow our opponents to take heaps, while Port are the exact opposite. If we lose centre clearances this will cause problems. We know what this looks like; we saw it in Round 1 last year.

Defending kick ins - Port have been strong in going end to end and scoring, while we have struggled to prevent this from happening in recent weeks.

Hitouts to advantage - not the biggest names but Port’s assortment of rucks has been pretty good at nullifying opposition hitouts to advantage, while generating enough of their own to cause problems. We’ve not been great in this aspect so will need to be a watch tomorrow if Port’s mids start getting easy takeaways.

Centre clearances - Port have the potential to get the edge here. It almost makes me wonder if we would go with a double tag at times… Berry on Horne-Francis and Dunkley on Butters?



Where we can get on top

Aerial contests - We have been conceding very few intercept or contested marks and Port don’t take many either, particularly contested marks. We will need to isolate our key forwards, forcing Aliir, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher to play one on one. When defending, we will need to maintain our midfield pressure - yes, Port take a lot of marks inside 50 but relatively few contested marks.

Intercepts - I know I mentioned this above - it’s a double edged sword. Port struggle to force turnovers as well and we have been pretty good at not giving the ball back also. In addition we have committed relatively few clangers while Port don’t really force many. So to me it all comes back to winning clearances - this will be a crucial aspect of the game.

Scoring - We have scored well from stoppage in recent weeks, while Port have also tended to give up scores from stoppage. So if we can at least break even in clearances this may give us an edge on the scoreboard. Also, we have been pretty good in preventing teams from scoring from their front half, while Port have struggled in this aspect recently, which is a bit of a surprise given their reputation for being a front half team. So if we can combine this with strong midfield transition defensively from our front half, we can make it hard for Port to score.

Contested possessions - Our numbers here aren’t fantastic, but we have been able to prevent our opposition from getting the ball in contested situations, while Port has also been off in this regard. Again, a big day for our midfield.

Inside 50s - A bit surprisingly, we rank pretty high up for tackling inside 50, and Port’s defenders are also susceptible to being tackled inside defensive 50. So if our key forwards can’t take marks, we have an opportunity here to lock the ball in and give ourselves a couple of bites at the cherry. It will be a great help if our small forwards can stay on the f**king ground and get to the front of the contest to provide that first line of defensive pressure.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Think it's one of those games where we need Lachie to dominate. Won't get tagged so no excuses there. 30 disposals and 8+ clearances as well as Clug continuing his form should allow our midfield to at least break even

 

[Grasshopper17]

Think it's one of those games where we need Lachie to dominate. Won't get tagged so no excuses there. 30 disposals and 8+ clearances as well as Clug continuing his form should allow our midfield to at least break even

Won't Willem Drew go to him as he has previously?

 

[Nathan Barley]

Won't Willem Drew go to him as he has previously?

Possibly but I don't think he's a hard tag like a Windhager which generally worries him

Would probably prefer that to our midfield going head to head

 

[Grasshopper17]

Possibly but I don't think he's a hard tag like a Windhager which generally worries him

Would probably prefer that to our midfield going head to head

Yeah Drew had 20 and Neale had 19 in the Qualifying Final last year. So that suggests it was more of a "run with" role than a hard tag. Certainly wasn't a contributing influence to the result.

Both had 20 in Round 1 but I'm not sure if there was a tag/role that day or not.