Review Round 17, 2024 - Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide

Who were your five best players against Adelaide?

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braddsey said:
Sportsbet will give you odds of 24.24 on the multi for all 5 games to go our way, which is an implied probability of 4.13%.
First time I've looked at Sportsbet. I was just curious on what the probability is of this happening, and I'm not Rain Man. 5-6% is a great estimate... and probably close to the actual probability once sportsbet margin is factored in.
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I did similar on TAB and it came out to just under $15 - Collingwood and Melbourne have both drifted out since, so the same multi is now at just under $20.

Adjusting for the fact the bookies give crap value because the whole system is a rort, fair value is around $25 - so yes, around about a 4% chance!

I like those odds. 🦁
 
Lester 192cm 84kg
Fogarty 194cm 100kg
Walker 194cm 102kg

Lester has had a few hard matchups recently but that is just how it is player wise in our defense.
No one in our VFL side is capable of consistently taking that 3rd tall spot over Lester.
Andrews got out marked on a few occasions yesterday that resulted in goals same with Payne.

Defenders are on the backfoot in all clubs when the ball waltzes out of defense without much pressure.
This is defiantly an area we need to get better at for the remainder of the season.

Lester only had 4 marks v Crows yesterday, the same as in our R9 Crows clash.
Lester's season average of 6.7 marks is actually a career high at this stage. It will change of course by seasons end.

Leading forwards in contested marks from footywire
Lester was always going to get one of Walker or Fogarty so a tough ask.

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I can't believe we are third favourites for the flag with Sportsbet, paying $8.00 at the moment. Looking at the AFL ladder, we have only beaten one team in the top nine at this stage.
 

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Section 5 said:
Lester 192cm 84kg
Fogarty 194cm 100kg
Walker 194cm 102kg

Lester has had a few hard matchups recently but that is just how it is player wise in our defense.
No one in our VFL side is capable of consistently taking that 3rd tall spot over Lester.
Andrews got out marked on a few occasions yesterday that resulted in goals same with Payne.

Defenders are on the backfoot in all clubs when the ball waltzes out of defense without much pressure.
This is defiantly an area we need to get better at for the remainder of the season.

Lester only had 4 marks v Crows yesterday, the same as in our R9 Crows clash.
Lester's season average of 6.7 marks is actually a career high at this stage. It will change of course by seasons end.

Leading forwards in contested marks from footywire
Lester was always going to get one of Walker or Fogarty so a tough ask.

View attachment 2042500
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So before yesterday Walker had 13 from 12 games, and he had 6 yesterday! Wow that's an absolute clinic.
 
Watched the 15min replay, some things that stood out:

Bailey looked much better, instead of getting caught htb was able to fight it off. Fagan said his syndesmosis injury was pretty bad so if he is turning the corner now would be a major bonus.

The crows kicked some very skillful goals. Game was closer as a result.

Lester just kept getting behind or under the ball. Hopefully just a correction he can make for next week rather than some slide in form. Waterman and Darling both a tad shorter than Walker and Fogarty at 191cm.

My feeling was the umps were a slight advantage to us, but it wasn't one way. 2 goals in the last for them were asssisted, one a very iffy mark, one an iffy 50m.

The most disappointing moment for me - crows get within 18 points. 4.45m on the clock. Centre clearance - spills to Sam Berry running past with nobody near him, breaks a tackle way too easily on McCluggage, deep entry, easy mark, goal. The set-up was Dunkley and Neale on our goal side, McCluggage on defensive side. Seems weird to have Clugga there, surely Dunkley defensive side? Maybe that was not the case because he was on a set player? Also if possible with that lead and that much time you would think Berry would be better in there if he was on the ground. Maybe even Rayner? Want a good tackler. That would the thing i would go to school on if i were fagan.

I also thought when Andrews took a mark about 65m out and 3.30mins on the clock (give or take) he made the wrong call starting to chip around. Too much time on the clock and we ended up only wiping 30 seconds off and the ball was out of bounds in the same area. Why not go deep boundary side, hope for a mark, try to keep it in there, keep the pressure on them. Once you chip around that early you are inviting the opposition to go full blown attack with no fear of a rebound game-sealing game.
 
twhowler said:
Watched the 15min replay, some things that stood out:

Bailey looked much better, instead of getting caught htb was able to fight it off. Fagan said his syndesmosis injury was pretty bad so if he is turning the corner now would be a major bonus.

The crows kicked some very skillful goals. Game was closer as a result.

Lester just kept getting behind or under the ball. Hopefully just a correction he can make for next week rather than some slide in form. Waterman and Darling both a tad shorter than Walker and Fogarty at 191cm.

My feeling was the umps were a slight advantage to us, but it wasn't one way. 2 goals in the last for them were asssisted, one a very iffy mark, one an iffy 50m.

The most disappointing moment for me - crows get within 18 points. 4.45m on the clock. Centre clearance - spills to Sam Berry running past with nobody near him, breaks a tackle way too easily on McCluggage, deep entry, easy mark, goal. The set-up was Dunkley and Neale on our goal side, McCluggage on defensive side. Seems weird to have Clugga there, surely Dunkley defensive side? Maybe that was not the case because he was on a set player? Also if possible with that lead and that much time you would think Berry would be better in there if he was on the ground. Maybe even Rayner? Want a good tackler. That would the thing i would go to school on if i were fagan.

I also thought when Andrews took a mark about 65m out and 3.30mins on the clock (give or take) he made the wrong call starting to chip around. Too much time on the clock and we ended up only wiping 30 seconds off and the ball was out of bounds in the same area. Why not go deep boundary side, hope for a mark, try to keep it in there, keep the pressure on them. Once you chip around that early you are inviting the opposition to go full blown attack with no fear of a rebound game-sealing game.
Click to expand...

When to go conservative has been a problem for us for a while. Personally I'd rather ice it for a bit, the games where we keep attacking in the final minutes or two are tough on my nerves. Or what's left of them.
 
Gadzorks said:
When to go conservative has been a problem for us for a while. Personally I'd rather ice it for a bit, the games where we keep attacking in the final minutes or two are tough on my nerves. Or what's left of them.
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Yep all very subjective!

I actually think the deep Harris kick would also have been the safest one. Very hard to score when it's out of bounds deep in the pocket of the oppo, easy to set up well...
 
What are Adelaide doing with Dawson? Looked like one the best mids in the comp last year, now barely goes in there. Looks like they are rotating him to a HFF. Nicks has lost the plot if he isn't doing this for injury reasons.
 
Happy_Neale said:
What are Adelaide doing with Dawson? Looked like one the best mids in the comp last year, now barely goes in there. Looks like they are rotating him to a HFF. Nicks has lost the plot if he isn't doing this for injury reasons.
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I think its similar to how we use McCluggage. Do we play him on ball where he gets more of the footy but under pressure or more outside where he can potentially be more damaging with his ball use?

Neither had big games on the weekend
 
I haven't watched the replay and it is sometimes hard to pick up live at the ground but did Jarrod Berry play more wing this game?

Seemed to be lining up on the wing at a few centre bounces.
 
Nathan Barley said:
I think its similar to how we use McCluggage. Do we play him on ball where he gets more of the footy but under pressure or more outside where he can potentially be more damaging with his ball use?

Neither had big games on the weekend
Click to expand...
I haven't looked by my impression is he spends more time out of the midfield than in it. Hard to understand why
 

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Nathan Barley said:
Didn't attend a single centre bounce
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He seemed to be around the ball a bit. Maybe we have him in a role in which he doesn't start in the centre but still has an inside element after the ball-up?

I get to very few games live so find this kind of thing difficult to assess
 
twhowler said:
He seemed to be around the ball a bit. Maybe we have him in a role in which he doesn't start in the centre but still has an inside element after the ball-up?

I get to very few games live so find this kind of thing difficult to assess
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In his wing role he often plays loose on the defensive side of clearances
 
Nathan Barley said:
In his wing role he often plays loose on the defensive side of clearances
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Roger, thanks.

Off topic i did my first ladder predictor, had us 5th with losses to Gold Coast and Collingwood.

I think from here if we lose 1 only we would be all but guaranteed top 4.

Lose 2 and finish between 4th and 6th.

Lose 3 and we miss the 8.

A reminder of how little margin for error there still is for us.

Right now we are third favourite for the flag. If we lose this weekend we will probably miss the 8. Wild season.

A lot of similarities with 1993 ALBEIT swans and blue clear atm.

Top place that year was essendon, 13.5 wins. 7th (and missing finals by one) was Geelong on 12 wins. Cats had won their last 5 in a row, including beating 1st placed essendon byy 32 points, 4th placed hawthorn by 82 points, and third placed north melbourne by 94 points.

Would not surprise if a side or two miss the finals and the teams in the 8 breathe a sigh of relief
 
M Malice said:
I haven't watched the replay and it is sometimes hard to pick up live at the ground but did Jarrod Berry play more wing this game?

Seemed to be lining up on the wing at a few centre bounces.
Click to expand...
Saw him spend some time in defense when Starc went down. But I think he was mainly on the wing.
 
Nathan Barley said:
I think its similar to how we use McCluggage. Do we play him on ball where he gets more of the footy but under pressure or more outside where he can potentially be more damaging with his ball use?

Neither had big games on the weekend
Click to expand...

Their midfield isn't good enough to not play him onball imo.
 
Top 2 self explanatory. The rest are interesting

Brisbane v Adelaide
10 Lachie Neale (BL)
8 Josh Dunkley (BL)
5 Ben Keays (ADEL)
3 Darcy Wilmot (BL)
2 Mark Keane (ADEL)
2 Oscar McInerney (BL)
 
royboys4eva said:
Four weeks is about right. Starc didn't finish the match yesterday and will miss next two matches - so basically three weeks.

He looked very distressed immediately after being hit off the ball. Need this rubbish out of the game.
Click to expand...
Why is Starcevich missing the next two games when you only have to sit out 12 days and there are 14 days between yesterday and Sunday Fortnight’s game against the Swans?
 
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