Preview Round 17: Essendon vs Adelaide, Docklands, Friday 09/07/2021 @ 7:50 PM

[eth-dog]

Observations

Essendon: Essendon had a disappointing loss to Geelong, dominating the first quarter but failed to stand up to Geelong's response after quarter time to round out 41 point losers. Darcy Parish was excellent again with 43 disposals, 13 clearances and a goal whilst Jake Stringer was also a standout with 25 disposals and 3 goals, playing both midfield and forward.

Adelaide: Adelaide were very competitive with Brisbane for the first half, only 8 points down at half time but then the Lions showed their quality, kicking 12 goals to 4 in the second half, Crows going down by 52 points. Rory Laird was a standout with 37 disposals and 9 clearances, and winger Paul Seedsman was the only multiple goal scorer with 2.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 3-2 Adelaide


Form Guide

Essendon: 2W 3L
Adelaide: 1W 4L


Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $
Adelaide: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Essendon vs Adelaide

FB: Mason Redman - Zach Reid - Jayden Laverde
FF: James Rowe - Riley Thilthorpe - Darcy Fogarty
HB: Nick Hind - James Stewart - Jordan Ridley
HF: Ned McHenry - Elliott Himmelberg - Luke Pedlar
MF: Kyle Langford - Archie Perkins - Matthew Guelfi
MF: Paul Seedsman - Ben Keays - Brodie Smith
HF: Alec Waterman - Harrison Jones - Jake Stringer
HB: Lachlan Sholl - Nick Murray - Jake Kelly
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Tom Doedee - Jordan Butts - Chayce Jones
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Reilly O'Brien - Rory Laird - Rory Sloane
IC: Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell - Ned Cahill - Will Snelling
IC: Jackson Hately - Luke Brown - Harry Schoenberg - Sam Berry
IS: David Zaharakis
IS: Will Hamill

Essendon in: Dylan Shiel, Ned Cahill, Zach Reid, David Zaharakis (sub); Out: Tom Cutler (omitted), Brayden Ham (omitted), Devon Smith (omitted), Nik Cox (rested)
Adelaide in: Darcy Fogarty, Elliott Himmelberg, Will Hamill (sub); Out: Taylor Walker (neck), David Mackay (omitted), Billy Frampton (omitted)


Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the third most efficient forward line in the league this season, kicking a goal 24.46% of the time it enters their forward 50. Adelaide has struggled defensively this season, currently conceding a goal 24.54% of the time it enters defensive 50, 15th in the AFL. The Bombers haven't been as effective as usual the past few weeks, Cale Hooker has struggled in particular, kicking 9 goals in the last 8 games and will be getting attention from young defender Jordan Butts. Another match-up to look forward to is Luke Brown on Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, the pair having had some great battles in the past.


Midfield/rucks battle

Adelaide have been middle of the road on the inside this season, being 8th and 9th for contested possession and clearance difference so far this season respectively, whilst Essendon have struggled in this area, being 16th and 14th for these areas respectively. Essendon will be looking at Darcy Parish to continue his rich vein of form so far, the midfielder thriving this year, and will likely get some more support with Dylan Shiel a possibility to return after only 6 players recorded a clearance last week. Rory Laird has been the main inside player for the Crows this season but has had a bit more support from the likes of Ben Keays and Rory Sloane, hence being higher on the clearance difference. On the outside, expect Kyle Langford to continue his run of strong form for the Bombers, likely supported by Will Snelling and Matthew Guelfi, whilst Adelaide's Paul Seedsman has been one of the premier wings of the comp this year as well. Rucks wise, Reilly O'Brien has the experience over Sam Draper, although Peter Wright will have a distinct advantage over Thilthorpe or Himmelberg when they rotate.


Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Adelaide have been rather inefficient going forward this season, kicking a goal 21.41% of the time it enters forward 50, 13th in the AFL. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 25% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 16th in the AFL. Without Taylor Walker, Adelaide lose their focal point up forward, putting a lot of pressure on the shoulders of young gun Riley Thilthorpe, who may get attention from Zach Reid, another first round pick for the Bombers, in his second game. Darcy Fogarty has been a feature up front as well, 15 goals in 10 games being a solid output, and expect the much improved Jayden Laverde to try to quell his influence.


X-Factor Player

Nick Hind has been a revelation off half back, his run and carry being vital this season for the Bombers so far, look for him to exploit that this week against a slower Adelaide forward line.


Key stat

Essendon: Goals per inside 50. After struggling the last few weeks, they need to start converting to get back on the winners list.

Adelaide: Clearances. Must win on the inside if they're going to stop Essendon.


Tip

Will be an interesting one, suspect it'll be tight but Essendon by 13

 

[Bombers36]

OUT: Hooker, Cutler, Ham
IN: Bryan, Francis, Zakka

Team:

Ridley Stewart Francis
Redman Laverde Hind
Heppell Langford Cox
Snelling Jones Waterman
Stringer 2MP Tippa

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Smith Perkins Zakka Bryan

 

[Duckworth]

OUT: Hooker, Cutler, Ham
IN: Bryan, Francis, Zakka

Surely Guelfi would be in before Zakka.

 

[Bombers36]

Surely Guelfi would be in before Zakka.

Yeah probably - actually why was Guelfi dropped in the 1st place?

 

[Duckworth]

Out: Ham, Cox
In: Guelfi, Durham

Backs: Jayden Laverde, James Stewart, Jordan Ridley
Half-backs: Nick Hind, Mason Redman, Dyson Heppell (C)
Centreline: Tom Cutler, Zach Merrett, Matt Guelfi
Half-forwards: Devon Smith, Harrison Jones, Alec Waterman
Forwards: Jake Stringer, Cale Hooker, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Followers: Sam Draper, Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford
Interchange: Durham, Will Snelling, Archie Perkins, Peter Wright

The 1st year players look like they need a rest. We are pretty light on for who is available, but I thought the injection of a bit more pressure would help. Also, a debut can give the team a bit of a lift. If Francis is still is SA I'm guessing he won't be playing yet either, but he may.

 

[Duckworth]

Yeah probably - actually why was Guelfi dropped in the 1st place?

Guelfi was dropped to make way for Snelling. It should have been Ham that made way IMO.

 

[YoboD]

Out: Ham, Cox
In: Guelfi, Durham

Backs: Jayden Laverde, James Stewart, Jordan Ridley
Half-backs: Nick Hind, Mason Redman, Dyson Heppell (C)
Centreline: Tom Cutler, Zach Merrett, Matt Guelfi
Half-forwards: Devon Smith, Harrison Jones, Alec Waterman
Forwards: Jake Stringer, Cale Hooker, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Followers: Sam Draper, Darcy Parish, Kyle Langford
Interchange: Durham, Will Snelling, Archie Perkins, Peter Wright

The 1st year players look like they need a rest. We are pretty light on for who is available, but I thought the injection of a bit more pressure would help. Also, a debut can give the team a bit of a lift. If Francis is still is SA I'm guessing he won't be playing yet either, but he may.

These would be my changes, and also Zerk Thatcher back in for Cutler. I don’t think Waterman fits our current forward setup either and leaves us with a lack of run and pressure, so I would think about Cahill for him as well.

 

[pazza]

Will be Friday night according to the media reports.

Possible ins include Reid after a fine effort in the reserves last night.

 

[pazza]

Out: Stewart (dropped), Cutler (dropped), Cox (rested)
In: Reid, Guelfi, Durham

 

[Duckworth]

Out: Stewart (dropped), Cutler (dropped), Cox (rested)
In: Reid, Guelfi, Durham

Replacing Stewart with Reid doesn't seem like a path to winning next week.

 

[Megabattimus]

Out: Stewart (dropped), Cutler (dropped), Cox (rested)
In: Reid, Guelfi, Durham

Stewart was great in the first quarter when our intensity around the ball was good. Got cut up like the rest of our backline once Geelong woke up and we dropped off.

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[Mikevk123]

In- Guelfi, Bryan, Reid, Durham, Zaharakis
Out- Perkins(Rest), Cox(Rest), Hooker(Rest),
Ham(Omitted), Waterman(Omitted)

B Laverde Stewart Hind
HB Ridley Reid Heppell
C Cutler Merrett Guelfi
HF Stringer Jones Snelling
F Smith Wright Tipungwuti
FOLL: Draper Langford Parish
INTER: Redman, Bryan, Durham, Zaharakis
Sub: Perkins

 

[Mikevk123]

In- Reid, Bryan, Guelfi, Durham, Zaharakis
Out- Cox(Rest), Hooker(Rest), Perkins(Rest),
Waterman(Omitted), Ham(Omitted)

 

[sameolds33]

Adelaide playing well v Lions. We cannot afford to expect this game to be any less tough than the last couple of games, based on Adelaide's position. Adelaide beat Melbourne after all, more than we could manage.

 

[Megabattimus]

Taylor Walker got subbed out of today's game against Brisbane after hurting his neck in the second quarter. Every chance he misses the game next week.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[blitzer]

After consecutive 6 day breaks I reckon there's a few that are struggling. I'd probably rest Cox and maybe play Perkins as the sub for a week. Hooker also appears to be struggling big time.

So I'd probably go:

Outs:
Hooker, Cox (rested), Ham, Perkins (sub)

Ins:
Bryan, Francis, Guelfi

Doesn't have to be Bryan but I'm curious to see how he'd go paired up with Draper. We could also realistically bring in someone like Cahill or Zaharakis and play a smaller forward line as we have been running with 3 talls up there.

I'd play Cutler on the wing this week with my proposed changes since I did take both Cox and Ham out.

 

[vass44]

Never like seeing players get hurt but looks like Tex Walker will miss with concussion


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[MiguelM]

Lions 52 up now

 

[citizen-erased]

In: Reid, Bryan, Guelfi, Shiel or Durham
Out: Cox, Cutler, Hooker, Perkins
Rest them all

Ridley Stewart Laverde
Hind Reid Heppell
Langford Stringer Smith
Waterman Jones Tippa
Bryan Wright Snelling
Draper Parish Merrett
Guelfi Redman Ham Shiel/Durham
Zaka

please win

 

[MiguelM]

We need to look past Hooker and get games into Bryan to see if he can play forward.

Hooker offers nothing if he doesn't mark it. Was okay in the first half of the season as he was clunking them.

Out: Cox, Cuts, Cooked, Ham
in: Guelfi, Francis, Bryan

Cutler Sub

 

[Vindicater]

In: Francis, Zaka and Gleeson

Out: Cutler (omit), Cox (rest) Ham (omit)

Francis pushes Redman up onto a wing. Zaka and Gleeson to start on the bench and play whatever role is needed when they rotate on.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Have a few winnable games coming up..all at Marvel. Not the time to drop Hooker. Let’s face it he came up against two of the best defences last two weeks. His marking will trouble teams Crows and Roos

 

[Halftimehero]

In: Francis, Zaka and Gleeson

Out: Cutler (omit), Cox (rest) Ham (omit)

Francis pushes Redman up onto a wing. Zaka and Gleeson to start on the bench and play whatever role is needed when they rotate on.

Can’t see Francis coming back in this week, was back in Adelaide.

 

[Ati Tude]

We need to look past Hooker and get games into Bryan to see if he can play forward.

Hooker offers nothing if he doesn't mark it. Was okay in the first half of the season as he was clunking them.

Out: Cox, Cuts, Cooked, Ham
in: Guelfi, Francis, Bryan

Cutler Sub

I reckon I would give Hooker and 2MP one more game against easier opposition and look to make a change after that if either has an unproductive game. I want to see Bryan and Draper play together but could only bring Bryan in for 2MP. Dont think you could play Bryan and 2MP in same forward line.

 

[naraku]

Out: Cox , Perkins (both rested), Cutler, Ham, Smith (all omitted)
In: Guelfi, Zaka, Reid, Bryan , Durham.

Smith really needs a wake-up call. Hopefully a week or two in the VFL does that.

This is one of those games where I expect this to be bit of a slog, even if Crows don't have Tex.

Essendon by 7pts. Would love total annihilation of them of course.