Game Day Round 19 vs. Hawthorn, MCG, 4:35pm Saturday 20/07

[Timmy from Thomastown]

So is 6 other teams. That is what makes it difficult. So many teams on the same amount of points. Results would have to go your way

8th is our best hope, and thats best case senario if we win 4 out of the last 6, which will be a challenge

Results of other 6 teams will go our way if we beat them. Plus they will be playing each other so there will be a winner and a loser in a very even season.

Agree we will only scrape in if we win four on the run home, we will need more than that. I’m just hopeful we get past Hawthorn and then Richmond…. And see how we are placed then

 

[No SPIN]

They are very quick. Grunt isn't helpful if you can't go with them when they burst out of the middle.

It’s more about stopping them from
getting on the burst. As Mitchell does.
Long and Bytel have the same speed so I prefer the bigger body.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

They are very inconsistent, and remember that this game was in Tasmania.
If we succumb to a blow out, it means that the team has well and truly given up. I refuse to believe that.

Inconsistent? They along with Sydney, they are probably the best performing team over the last couple of months. They have also won 4 of their last 5 matches.....

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Season on the line sort of stuff, lose this then its all but over.

Us losing on Friday night, then the Bulldogs and Melbourne winning yesterday doesn't help us. If the Suns win today, we drop to 13th. Looks like we will be fighting for that 8th spot on the ladder.
With our draw, it's going to be very tough.

 

[sideswipe]

We need to get to 12 wins with a decent percentage to take 8th spot in my calculations.

We need to beat Haw and Rich next two weeks, and then any two of the games against Carlton, Brisbane (MCG), Melbourne, or Sydney (SCG). I reckon we sneak into 8th spot, and then from there it is anyones game.

Reckon we will need 13 wins. Decent ask.


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[Dead Eye Didak]

Reckon we will need 13 wins. Decent ask.


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Agree, because of our percentage, we need to scrape up another 4 wins from somewhere. l'm not confident against the Hawks, we should beat Richmond, then we have Carlscum, Sydney away, Brisbane, then Melbourne.
I just don't see where we get the required wins from, in our current form.
Personally l have come to the realisation our season is done.

 

[jmac70]

Agree, because of our percentage, we need to scrape up another 4 wins from somewhere. l'm not confident against the Hawks, we should beat Richmond, then we have Carlscum, Sydney away, Brisbane, then Melbourne.
I just don't see where we get the required wins from, in our current form.
Personally l have come to the realisation our season is done.

The old adage of one week at a time really does apply here.
An unlikely win against Hawthorn would change things dramatically.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

The old adage of one week at a time really does apply here.
An unlikely win against Hawthorn would change things dramatically.

We definitely have to beat Hawthorn, then consecutive wins, should we beat Richmond, will get us back in the picture, and maybe we can gather some confidence going into the final few games.
Hopefully Sydney rest a few stars for our game, in preparation for the finals....

 

[Black_White]

I cannot see is stopping Hawthorn the way they are playing at the moment.
I’m still living high on the 2023 Premiership. It won’t be defended unfortunately but it doesn’t diminish the love I have for my great club.

 

[stevebbb]

Rotate the squad a little bit, give some players a rest, the focus should be on next season. Yes of course we want to win, but we can't be shortsighted. There is no harm in accepting that we won't be good enough this year.

We had a slow start due to the premiership win, then we came hard, but injuries killed us. Was it bad luck? Was it because we had no groundwork from a full preseason? Bit of both I reckon.

Are there also some lower motivation levels in squad? Yep, but that's ok, the players are only human, not everybody has the top tier elite mentality to reach the summit, then do it again straight away.

We should be looking at Geelong. Similar age profile with their squad. They won the flag in 2022, then fell off a cliff and finished 12th in 2023, most thought they were cooked, that they'd bottom out and have to rebuild. Now they're on track for a top 4 place in 2024 and are a genuine chance at winning it all.

We all love this footy club, we all love these players, we all want to win every week, we all hate when we lose, but we gotta be proud of the premiership win last year, it's bloody hard to do. And we gotta be proud of the fight the boys have showed after a 0-3 start. We've run out of puff. I strongly believe we can win another premiership next year.

 

[No SPIN]

Agree, because of our percentage, we need to scrape up another 4 wins from somewhere. l'm not confident against the Hawks, we should beat Richmond, then we have Carlscum, Sydney away, Brisbane, then Melbourne.
I just don't see where we get the required wins from, in our current form.
Personally l have come to the realisation our season is done.

Why do you believe our current form can’t improve?

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Rotate the squad a little bit, give some players a rest, the focus should be on next season. Yes of course we want to win, but we can't be shortsighted. There is no harm in accepting that we won't be good enough this year.

We had a slow start due to the premiership win, then we came hard, but injuries killed us. Was it bad luck? Was it because we had no groundwork from a full preseason? Bit of both I reckon.

Are there also some lower motivation levels in squad? Yep, but that's ok, the players are only human, not everybody has the top tier elite mentality to reach the summit, then do it again straight away.

We should be looking at Geelong. Similar age profile with their squad. They won the flag in 2022, then fell off a cliff and finished 12th in 2023, most thought they were cooked, that they'd bottom out and have to rebuild. Now they're on track for a top 4 place in 2024 and are a genuine chance at winning it all.

We all love this footy club, we all love these players, we all want to win every week, we all hate when we lose, but we gotta be proud of the premiership win last year, it's bloody hard to do. And we gotta be proud of the fight the boys have showed after a 0-3 start. We've run out of puff. I strongly believe we can win another premiership next year.

The only other club who would love this move is Fremantle. They will probably end up with a top 5 pick.
Geelong did this last year, when they started putting players in for clean up surgery, in the last month of the season, and have their squad up and going for the pre-season.
It maybe something we can start looking at once the season is mathematically done.
We also have Pendles 400th coming up, so l doubt any players will want to miss that game.

 

[Vicky Park]

I know Hawthorn should win this, but I cant keep my optimism down for long.

In a desperate reach for reasons why we'll win:

We've lost three in a row and I cant recall losing four consecutive games under Fly. So this is unprecedented. When we lost three in a row at the start of the season we bounced back and went on a good run (for us, this season).

With Jamie back, and hopefully McStay, our forward line will take on the semblance of an actually functioning forward line. Should help Bobby too, when the pressure on him can lift a little. He hasn't been smiling much lately.

Has our struggling defence reached the bottom of the J-curve? The Hawthorn forwards (sadly for them minus Lewis) and then the Richmond forwards - surely we can match them before facing the horrors that await with Carlton?

Re the midfield, I've no idea, but it pains me to say that Pendle's return hasn't helped. Third game back for him this week, may be the turning point.

So we're back to baby steps. Let's deal with Hawthorn, then Richmond, then...

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Why do you believe our current form can’t improve?

Because it's not just one thing. We have issues in areas we want to be strong in. We have defensive issues, our midfield is lacking any real speed and our pressure and ability to stop opposition transitioning the ball has been alarming, particularly over the past fortnight.
Also our inability to stay in contests now. We have good patches, then our performance, in game, drops away dramatically. That l think is a fitness issue, as we are chasing the opposition who are playing keepings off with us, and then we're gassed. It's going to be a trend from now until round 24. That's the blueprint to take the steam out of our game.
We have important players having poor seasons, the desire and buy in from the playing group seems manufactured and not natural this season. That's on top of injuries.
Too me it's been a season of bad luck with injuries, but also we have been exposed in some areas, positionally, that need to be rectified over the summer.

 

[stormskye]

Why do you believe our current form can’t improve?

We need wholesale changes to our system spinny. You can’t accomplish that in a week. It’s not working. All other top teams have flogged north, we were 8 goals down to them.. we have issues that will need to be addressed in the off season.

The upside of our run home, is if we don’t make it, we don’t deserve to. Have to beat the top teams to win it.

 

[Magnanimous]

They're only giving him 40 mins in the VFL. Clearly is not ready for AFL footy.

People wanting to rush him back need to remember he's not a superstar and he hasn't played in 12 months, he needs time

Agree, he is/was a very important cog when we were playing better last year.

No way he comes back after his great comeback, and all of a sudden we are a 4 goal better side.

Will depend on the mix we put around him too and the overall desire and effort applied by the team at this point.

We have it all in front of us and some other results not working in our favour.

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[stormskye]

As much as I’d love Mcstay back, he ain’t solving our issues between the arcs. I wouldn’t be rushing him back and risking next season as well.

 

[No SPIN]

We need wholesale changes to our system spinny. You can’t accomplish that in a week. It’s not working

Players back will help greatly - poster was talking about not making finals, not just next week.
Restricting the “kicking game”, now used against us is not insurmountable.
Man on man within one pass of the kicker, when we haven’t got the ball is an example.
Plenty of levers remain for us to improve.

 

[Piesinmyeyes]

I wanna win badly, somehow this week if only to see the Hawthorn coaches pet monkey (Korne), put back in his box for all his tripe.
Nauseating listening to this jerk.
Time to fire one back across the rubicon…

 

[No SPIN]

Because it's not just one thing. We have issues in areas we want to be strong in. We have defensive issues, our midfield is lacking any real speed and our pressure and ability to stop opposition transitioning the ball has been alarming, particularly over the past fortnight.
Also our inability to stay in contests now. We have good patches, then our performance, in game, drops away dramatically. That l think is a fitness issue, as we are chasing the opposition who are playing keepings off with us, and then we're gassed. It's going to be a trend from now until round 24. That's the blueprint to take the steam out of our game.
We have important players having poor seasons, the desire and buy in from the playing group seems manufactured and not natural this season. That's on top of injuries.
Too me it's been a season of bad luck with injuries, but also we have been exposed in some areas, positionally, that need to be rectified over the summer.

Oppo kicking games has burnt us the last 2 games. We can fix that, it’s not insurmountable.
Don’t agree we lack speed - in fact fast breaks have been a weapon.
Cox, Mitchell, McCreery, McStay, Howe improve us in many of the areas you’re concerned about.
We turned things around last year despite the doubt from all corners.

The only way we don’t regain form, is if injuries continue and/or this group has completely lost its confidence and dare.
I’m backing resilience and also have a sneaky feeling that Wade is loading earlier, so that we avoid the poor late season form we saw last year.
He would have been smart enough to see we needed to be flying in the last 4 games against quality opposition to make finals.

Time will tell.

 

[Carringbush2010]

We can bring McStay in but it won’t change the way we play.
When you roll every forward up the ground thinking you’re gonna burn the opposition on the way back…only for the opposition to stay back in anticipation …you will then have no options to kick to, be outnumbered or be forced to then second guess/go slow and sideways and be picked off

There's merit in this post, most of the conversation has been about.....................

• Effort, fix that and we're back baby
• Injuries, have tipped us past the point
• Darcy and a few others are out of form, that's our issue.

Like it's wholly and solely one problem, but it isn't, it's a combination of all factors.

And to add salt to the wound, it's not like Fly, Bolts and Leppa can just ask the whole squad to change our dna and expect every player to be on the same page in an instant either.

Our game has flaws, especially zone defence, which looks like the players are at sea. Not to mention our swarm and spread game - it's too taxing to play game in game out all season long. We didn't last year, the difference between this year and last is we were able to execute our manic transition and able to tempo the game speed at will, probably coz of a mainly healthy list and continuity.

It's not effort, it's just not clicking (as much), so yeah it looks like lack of effort (and maybe slightly but let's not pretend the players are 'ah we got a flag who cares now').

The rest of this year is about how we can get better and implement tweaks for that improvement, for us fans it's just a hope and pray the blose or bombouts don't win it, more importantly not before we do.

So go anyone else but them, so go flagmantle, swans, dogs, whoever. They win it and we stay top of the heap.

 

[domus]

He gets a full game in the VFL and does nothing, less than nothing but people like you are obsessed with him. You can’t see beyond that. Granted a sub rarely makes any impact but Reef wasn’t in any form in the VFL and didn’t deserve a game. He came in on a 4 disposal 1 point half of football. That’s something I’d be embarrassed about.
I’ve stopped pushing for AJ to play even though he’s a favourite of mine, I’ve seen the light. The Reef crowd need to do the same as it’s getting old and embarrassing. I’m starting to think some people on here don’t actually know what they’re talking about.

The fact that he is brought into the team despite poor from in the VFL is an indication of their thinking he has the potential to contribute to the side at senior level. We have a clear understanding that Mcrae and AJ do not seem capable of playing a consistently good standard of football in the seniors no matter how well they perform in the VFL.

There have always been players who just get by in the ressies, but have the ability to play well in the seniors. Just as there have always been players who star at VFL level but cannot handle the step up to the next level.

Reef has kicked goals in his limited appearances in a difficult position. He hits the packs hard and runs in a straight line at the pill. His courage and commitment in the contest is unquestioned. That's a good starting point. He has good foot skills and good hands. Give him a clear run of 2 or 3 full games and then make a decision about his future.

I'm sure if he was to be delisted other clubs would pounce on him. That tells you something.

 

[Monco Matt]

Even with a full team that is winning and playing well we struggle to beat the Hawks, in all other circumstances they towel us up. So with these facts in mind I can't see us winning this game. If we plan to play a zone defence against them they will cut us up mercilessly. I thought the Cats would give us a hiding but they didn't, maybe this is the one. Suffice to say that this game is a MUST win if we want to play finals. It is at the stage now where we have to draw the line and stop this run of losses. Where is the old school "Collingwood backs against the wall victory" to steady the ship? When was the last time we lost 4 games in a row?

 

[jmac70]

The fact that he is brought into the team despite poor from in the VFL is an indication of their thinking he has the potential to contribute to the side at senior level. We have a clear understanding that Mcrae and AJ do not seem capable of playing a consistently good standard of football in the seniors no matter how well they perform in the VFL.

There have always been players who just get by in the ressies, but have the ability to play well in the seniors. Just as there have always been players who star at VFL level but cannot handle the step up to the next level.

Reef has kicked goals in his limited appearances in a difficult position. He hits the packs hard and runs in a straight line at the pill. His courage and commitment in the contest is unquestioned. That's a good starting point. He has good foot skills and good hands. Give him a clear run of 2 or 3 full games and then make a decision about his future.

I'm sure if he was to be delisted other clubs would pounce on him. That tells you something.

McRae is the coach.

 

[jmac70]

Is Cox a chance to return for this game?