Autopsy Round 20, 2021: St.Kilda v Carlton

[Geary Is GOAT]

Can't subject myself to the replay but during the game it felt like we consistently got first use at centre bounces but couldn't get the clearance.

We just kept turning it over in the square, either running over a ball to our advantage or over handballing into pressure.

So many times we handballed to a player under pressure at half back it was infuriating. Sold Hill and Crouch into trouble repeatedly.

 

[Mstr Strokesman]

Once Marshall lifts his output we should be unbeatable next year.

Nah he is likely to play Chb or traded next year with our history

 

[BrutThough]

Can't subject myself to the replay but during the game it felt like we consistently got first use at centre bounces but couldn't get the clearance.

We just kept turning it over in the square, either running over a ball to our advantage or over handballing into pressure.

So many times we handballed to a player under pressure at half back it was infuriating. Sold Hill and Crouch into trouble repeatedly.

Carey made a good point in the commentary that far too often we handballs it to Hill just for the sake of giving it to him. Maybe with no Sinclair, we felt there was less options to get it out of defence and it made us more Hill focused?

 

[gringo2011]

That's an appropriate view in isolation but l don't think it holds water with context applied.
An overarching problem for us is cohesion. It's hard enough to develop that in such a short time as 1 preseason but then bam we get totally reamed with injuries to starting 22 players coz sammm put up that phuking thread.
Then we have an epically awful fixture along with massive selection volatility and we're caught out with incorrect tactics for the new rules.

In simplistic terms, the waves of adversity this year have been significant enough to cancel the effect of any improvement. That doesn't mean that improvement hasn't happened.

It's the season we needed. It's obvious that too much bath water was drunk during off season, and with the fixture and injuries it was always gonna be a train wreck.

Assuming we can keep a fit squad we should expect to see the gains made this year materialize in 2022 then we can make a more educated judgment, but at the end of the day we've got Steele and Max King to build a team around and we must continue forward. Momentum is everything.

I think people see our side like it exists in a vacuum. Our list still looks really ordinary. When I did an order of our best players we still have very few guns, especially if you look at actual output rather than potential. I'd say until some of our GOPs become good to excellent players we will struggle to do much but knock off teams not expecting us to get them. We look much more like a bottom 4 side than a top 4 side.

My rating of the talent pool, some straddle the two but chose the more constant one.

Elite- Steele
A Grade-
B Grade- Marshall, Jones, Ryder, Howard, Hill, Ross, Billings, Wilkie, Sinclair, Gresham, Crouch, King.
C Grade- Byrnes, DMac, Wood, Dunny, Clark, Higgins, Battle, Webster, Highmore, Membrey, Paton,
D Grade- Coff, Long, Lonie, Frawley, Mc Kernan, Phunter, Bytel, Connolly.
Retire- Hanners, Carlisle, Roberton, McKernan, Geary, Kent, Lonie, Long, Alabakis.
Developing- Allison, Heath, Bytel, Byrnes, Connolly and Sharman.

The worry for me is that a lot of our talent is meh and probably already reached their peak apart from King and a few kids. Building off Steele and King sounds long and slow.

 

[Mowman]

I think people see our side like it exists in a vacuum. Our list still looks really ordinary. When I did an order of our best players we still have very few guns, especially if you look at actual output rather than potential. I'd say until some of our GOPs become good to excellent players we will struggle to do much but knock off teams not expecting us to get them. We look much more like a bottom 4 side than a top 4 side.

My rating of the talent pool, some straddle the two but chose the more constant one.

Elite- Steele
A Grade-
B Grade- Marshall, Jones, Ryder, Howard, Hill, Ross, Billings, Wilkie, Sinclair, Gresham, Crouch, King.
C Grade- Byrnes, DMac, Wood, Dunny, Clark, Higgins, Battle, Webster, Highmore, Membrey, Paton,
D Grade- Coff, Long, Lonie, Frawley, Mc Kernan, Phunter, Bytel, Connolly.
Retire- Hanners, Carlisle, Roberton, McKernan, Geary, Kent, Lonie, Long, Alabakis.
Developing- Allison, Heath, Bytel, Byrnes, Connolly and Sharman.

The worry for me is that a lot of our talent is meh and probably already reached their peak apart from King and a few kids. Building off Steele and King sounds long and slow.

Not retiring Frawley & PHunter ?

 

[gringo2011]

North? Do you mean Adelaide?

No the Good Friday marquee game a few years back. Was going to give us a money spinner but we shat the bed so hard we broke the slats and put a hole in the floor.

 

[gringo2011]

Naitanui is the best tap ruckman in the competition, and his average for the season is 11.7% which is considered elite.

Marshall getting 35% of his hit outs to advantage is a great result.

He was rucking against a human chair. I could bitch slap Silvagni in the ruck.

 

[gringo2011]

Not retiring Frawley & PHunter ?

They are so bad I'm trying to wipe their existence from my memory.

 

[BrutThough]

He was rucking against a human chair. I could b*tch slap Silvagni in the ruck.

The point is, his ruck work wasn't an issue this week. He gave our mids first use but they just didn't take advantage of that, crumbled under Carlton's pressure and then either rushed the ball forward or just executed extremely poorly.

But it was a midfield issue, not a Marshall issue.

 

[George]

No the Good Friday marquee game a few years back. Was going to give us a money spinner but we shat the bed so hard we broke the slats and put a hole in the floor.

Ah yep, I was going to say we beat North this year but anyway, you're right. The only time over the last 6 years we haven't shat the bed was the very back end of last year, needing to beat GWS to cement a spot, and then beating the Dogs in the first final. IMO before 2016 we were just plain shit, since then we have had opportunities to push into the eight or show continued improvement and we've stagnated or gone backwards.

I argued in favour of us having turned it around at the end of last year but it looks now like that was a once off - although I do completely understand the impact our injury toll has had during the year and the fixture, it's still no excuse to lose games by 10 goals or more.

 

[PandaG]

I look at it as a pick and cap room for a free agent.

You would have to have one ready to go
If Kelly was there then definitely go for the upgrade

 

[Noidenous]

The point is, his ruck work wasn't an issue this week. He gave our mids first use but they just didn't take advantage of that, crumbled under Carlton's pressure and then either rushed the ball forward or just executed extremely poorly.

But it was a midfield issue, not a Marshall issue.

Where stoppages are concerned, the midfield includes Marshall.

Only a 6% uptick in HO to advantage against Silvagni, particularly with such a massive sample size, indicates a problem.

 

[lewdogs]

I'm still just flabbergasted by that performance. The thing that I can't get over is how inconsistent we are. It's really quite incredible.

Think about our consistent players this season. Steele, Howard, Sinclair, Marshall. Not sure I can honestly name another. How can we be expected to win games with four consistent players in our 22?

We can talk about how good or bad our list is, obviously we all have differing opinions on it but I think the fact is we aren't getting enough out of it. How can a guy like Jones look elite some weeks and shithouse others? Why is Crouch, who is a good player, playing so badly over the last two weeks? What's up with Membrey? Billings? These guys are good players but half the time they're terrible.

I personally think we don't have a clear go-to mode when things aren't working or are hard. When we play well we look fantastic, no doubt, maybe one of the better sides to watch. But we don't have a fallback position, a way of playing when we aren't on fire. I think part of that is this effort business, our effort seems to slip away when things don't go our way.

I don't really think I can comment on game plan, but I do think Ratten is struggling with communication. He isn't able to get his message across to the players consistently.

We need to become a team that has a way of playing well enough even when we don't have all our players available. Every team has to deal with injuries, we can't keep using it as an excuse. I hate hearing Ratten say that every week.

The fact is the last three weeks have been an opportunity. Three separate opportunities to get into the finals mix and we have blown it. Something isn't working and we need to figure it out for next year or we are just going to waste more time.

This Carlton game was an absolute debacle. Everything on the line and we threw it in the bin. I hope Ratten is on notice. It isn't good enough to piss away a season.

 

[Minga]

I think people see our side like it exists in a vacuum. Our list still looks really ordinary. When I did an order of our best players we still have very few guns, especially if you look at actual output rather than potential. I'd say until some of our GOPs become good to excellent players we will struggle to do much but knock off teams not expecting us to get them. We look much more like a bottom 4 side than a top 4 side.

My rating of the talent pool, some straddle the two but chose the more constant one.

Elite- Steele
A Grade-
B Grade- Marshall, Jones, Ryder, Howard, Hill, Ross, Billings, Wilkie, Sinclair, Gresham, Crouch, King.
C Grade- Byrnes, DMac, Wood, Dunny, Clark, Higgins, Battle, Webster, Highmore, Membrey, Paton,
D Grade- Coff, Long, Lonie, Frawley, Mc Kernan, Phunter, Bytel, Connolly.
Retire- Hanners, Carlisle, Roberton, McKernan, Geary, Kent, Lonie, Long, Alabakis.
Developing- Allison, Heath, Bytel, Byrnes, Connolly and Sharman.

The worry for me is that a lot of our talent is meh and probably already reached their peak apart from King and a few kids. Building off Steele and King sounds long and slow.

Very true on the potential side of things IMO.

On potential, I believe there’s a lot to be excited about. On actual form, very few players have stood up. Next year is going to be extremely interesting and insightful. Almost like we need some more youth to cmon in and stir the seniors to get hungry.

 

[kernelT]

Where stoppages are concerned, the midfield includes Marshall.

Only a 6% uptick in HO to advantage against Silvagni, particularly with such a massive sample size, indicates a problem.

So you’re saying the midfield didn’t play well?
Nobel footy genius award is on the way.

 

[Noidenous]

So you’re saying the midfield didn’t play well?
Nobel footy genius award is on the way.

 

[kernelT]

View attachment 1193472

So the absolute best ruckmen in the comp average 10 hitouts to advantage per game, Marshall had 16 and we had 21 more than our opponent, but that was a significant factor in why we lost?

It's a really compelling and fascinating point you are making, keep going.

 

[Noidenous]

So the absolute best ruckmen in the comp average 10 hitouts to advantage per game, Marshall had 16 and we had 21 more than our opponent, but that was a significant factor in why we lost?

It's a really compelling and fascinating point you are making, keep going.

If you practically had no opponent and won 70 of them, would you not expect to have more than a 6% uptick in HOs to advantage? An extra 1 out of 20?

Of course, that seems to be lost on you despite how many times it's been stated in as many ways. You can keep bleating at the sky, but that statistic is damning.

Naitanui had 40% against Ryder last week and Marshall didn't produce that against Silvagni.

 

[kernelT]

We would have gotten away with it too if it wasn't for that pesky Marshall.

 

[Tom12]

Can we please stop pretending Dunstan is good?

The opposition's eyes light up whenever he has the ball. A-grade butcher with the footy in his hands.

 

[Tom12]

I'm also going to point this out for the 17th time this year - if Seb Ross is getting regular rotation minutes in your midfield, you are not a top 4 or even top 6 side. That is simple, and it will continue to play out that way until we trade him or move him out of their permanently.

I'm sorry, I know he's been a decent soldier, won some awards playing in bad teams - but when it comes to actually trying to win we can't AFFORD to have him in there as he doesn't hold his man accountable (unless playing a tagging role??) and doesn't damage the opposition.

 

[Monika72]

Can we please stop pretending Dunstan is good?

The opposition's eyes light up whenever he has the ball. A-grade butcher with the footy in his hands.

Dunstan has done a Kosi and has played 3 good games in a row.

 

[Crusty Undies]

The best (Gawn and Grundy) are both what I call a great ruckmen (taps) and also great follower (extra mid).

Thats why I was also disappointed with Marshall. He should have torched Silvagni. He may have won a lot of hitouts but not much was happening after that. He needed to work better with our midfield.

He needed to monsterSilvagni and just grab it out the ruck imo. Throw the little munchkin aside every time he dares to come near it.

 

[gringo2011]

Dunstan has done a Kosi and has played 3 good games in a row.

Still had the third most possessions on the ground and had better efficiency than Crouch. He's improved but he's very agricultural. Guys like Billings, Membrey, Butler, Billings and Long were more of an issue. Didn't turn up until junk time. Carlton pressured us and we couldn't handle it. We seem to fall apart with any kind of pressure on our disposal and just send the ball anywhere.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Hope we back Coff in to take his career into his own hands. Invest in players like him to pick themselves up (had a downer but development is non-linear etc etc but he is getting a bit into his career now), and that’s the sort of stuff which breeds culture and builds faith. Plus who would want him for a fair price, it’s like buying high and selling low. Big big off-season for him coming up.

Either give us 2020 Coff back, or reinvent coff into a midfielder/winger but whatever it is it’ll take effort. Highmore seems to be a no-mucking around type operator which I love. He owns that intercepting spot currently.

You would expect Clark and Coffield to have a very good year in 2022 based on games played, draft pick number and the side having opportunities for players who want to cement themselves in the team.