Autopsy Round 20, 2021: St.Kilda v Carlton

[stavro#4]

You would have to have one ready to go
If Kelly was there then definitely go for the upgrade

Save it for next off season.

 

[longlivelenny]

Hope we back Coff in to take his career into his own hands. Invest in players like him to pick themselves up (had a downer but development is non-linear etc etc but he is getting a bit into his career now), and that’s the sort of stuff which breeds culture and builds faith. Plus who would want him for a fair price, it’s like buying high and selling low. Big big off-season for him coming up.

Either give us 2020 Coff back, or reinvent coff into a midfielder/winger but whatever it is it’ll take effort. Highmore seems to be a no-mucking around type operator which I love. He owns that intercepting spot currently.

I just don't know what coff is.
He's not a great defender.
He's not an amazing intercept marker.
He's not great at setting up forward chains
He doesn't seem to be a midfielder.

Basically a first year player picked up from a state level comp has gone past him already.

I agree not to sell low, but also think we might need to get him out before other clubs realise he's not going to a star and we will get value because he was a high pick.

On Pixel 3 XL using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Saintbloke]

Didn't assert himself? 22 disposals and 46 hit-outs not assertive enough? We smashed them all day in the ruck, our failure came from the inability to win clearance from our ruck dominance. It was the midfielders that lost us the game.

A pretty invisible performance for our lead ruckman- Silvagni's follow up second efforts in the ruck gave their midfield the advantage. You must have been watching a different game.

 

[Minga]

I just don't know what coff is.
He's not a great defender.
He's not an amazing intercept marker.
He's not great at setting up forward chains
He doesn't seem to be a midfielder.

Basically a first year player picked up from a state level comp has gone past him already.

I agree not to sell low, but also think we might need to get him out before other clubs realise he's not going to a star and we will get value because he was a high pick.

On Pixel 3 XL using BigFooty.com mobile app

Perhaps I am being ignorant, and I do understand what you’re saying.

But if the fans and the club can’t have faith in a young player to pick themselves up then we will never have the top quality players we so desperately want. Those types of players, in my opinion, require hard work more than anything else on top of talent. We know Coffield has talent, we have seen it in juniors and in AFL finals. We can’t just keep chopping and changing players in the off season and then be upset when we haven’t drafted an All Australian in however many years.

Petracca is the first player that comes to mind. A high draft pick with all the talent, but, from my understanding, it wasn’t until he took the 2019 off season to really dig in and put in the hardwork until he became a stand out player. I’m not saying Coffield is Petracca, they’re inherently different players, my point is that it is far more valuable to persist with Coffield and insist on effort then it is to cast him out for whichever early 2nd round pick we may get in return. Would you be confident he wouldn’t improve at another club - because I sure as hell wouldn’t!

He’s a talented, young player who has had a rough year. The same can be said for a fair few others on our list in 2021.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Did you think that he was controlling the ruck until you read the stat sheet? I honestly didn't notice him. Even commentators kept complimenting Silvagni for being good in the ruck. It should have been like an adult playing basketball against children but it was a pretty even contest and certainly not an area of dominance to me. I watch Ryder jumping over guys and slapping it down to our players and get ruck advantage but I didn't see that with Marshall this week.

That would be because Paddy is a class above Marshall in terms of ruck work. Marshall is good at getting hands to the ball and negating a better ruck when he plays against one. He has the strength of being able to go forward and take contested marks. His field kicking into the 50 is elite as well as his second efforts at ground level. All of this added up makes him a fantastic player as a package but as a ruckman and a ruckman only, I would say he's still lacking in the craft department. His taps are grundy eseque where they just get tapped with not too much direction. He's only young but splitting the ruck between him and Paddy is more like "not losing the ruck" while Marshall's there and "dominating the ruck" while Paddy's there. Hopefully over the next preseason working with Paddy more he can work on directing his taps to a specific spot more.

 

[CursingFijian]

I just did the ladder predictor it said we’re playing finals. Who’s with me?

 

[Midfield Gun]

Funnily enough, after the weekends results we're still a good chance to sneak into the finals if we win the last 3.

 

[gringo2011]

Funnily enough, after the weekends results we're still a good chance to sneak into the finals if we win the last 3.

Sounds easy.

 

[Crusty Undies]

View attachment 1193705

It's average per game. Presuming there's a bug in the app UI.

222 / 19 = 11.68

Not to mention that almost 40% of his HOs have been to advantage this season.

569/222 does not equal 11.68%. The hitouts to advantage is a subset of total hitouts attended.

 

[Midfield Gun]

We'll beat Sydney and Geelong, only to lose to Freo at home once we've all emotionally checked back in. Saints footy

 

[Noidenous]

569/222 does not equal 11.68%. The hitouts to advantage is a subset of total hitouts attended.

What?

To have a HO to advantage, you have to have a HO.

Therefore, to get HO to advantage percentage, you are looking for the number of HOs to advantage divided by total HOs.

Over the course of the season (19 games) Naitanui has had 222 HOs to advantage. Lo and behold, the average number is 11.68. The app is incorrectly showing a % symbol for that figure. If you check Naitanui's HO to advantage percentage this season, it's close to 40%.

(222 / 569) x 100 = 39.01 (%)


There's no way you can spin those stats to get anything different. As stated, the number of HOs to advantage is higher than 11% of the total ruck contests.

I've used two different stat pairings now to show the equation involved. Look the page up on an actual PC and you will see all the stats before you at once.

 

[pebblesofsand]

What exactly is a "hitout to advantage"?

Clearly its not one that leads to a clearance so maybe its one that goes towards our goals, or perhaps one that goes in the general direction of one of our players. Tapping the ball to someone who is about to get tackled certainly isn't a "hitout to advantage".

I suspect its a lot like "DE" - a bit meaningless.

 

[Noidenous]

What exactly is a "hitout to advantage"?

Clearly its not one that leads to a clearance so maybe its one that goes towards our goals, or perhaps one that goes in the general direction of one of our players. Tapping the ball to someone who is about to get tackled certainly isn't a "hitout to advantage".

I suspect its a lot like "DE" - a bit meaningless.

It's a HO that directly leads to a possession for an intended team member.

 

[kernelT]

Sounds easy.

It would be very St Kilda to rise off the canvas to beat both the Swans and Geelong, but then miss out on finals after getting pumped by a 2nd rate freo in the last round.

 

[Diehard Saint]

It would be very St Kilda to rise off the canvas to beat both the Swans and Geelong, but then miss out on finals after getting pumped by a 2nd rate freo in the last round.

Yeah. I’m not even getting my hopes up for another win this season. Just play the kids and finish around 13. And that’s not tanking, that’s getting extra games into our kids. ( And if it helps to get a better draft pick, well I suppose we’ll just have to live with it!)

 

[Crusty Undies]

What?

To have a HO to advantage, you have to have a HO.

Therefore, to get HO to advantage percentage, you are looking for the number of HOs to advantage divided by total HOs.

Over the course of the season (19 games) Naitanui has had 222 HOs to advantage. Lo and behold, the average number is 11.68. The app is incorrectly showing a % symbol for that figure. If you check Naitanui's HO to advantage percentage this season, it's close to 40%.

(222 / 569) x 100 = 39.01 (%)


There's no way you can spin those stats to get anything different. As stated, the number of HOs to advantage is higher than 11% of the total ruck contests.

I've used two different stat pairings now to show the equation involved. Look the page up on an actual PC and you will see all the stats before you at once.

We're agreeing I think. Someone was saying Nat had 11.8% effective hitouts from his pool of hitouts won and I am saying the numbers do not agree with that. Sorry if that's been lost in translation lol.

 

[Noidenous]

We're agreeing I think. Someone was saying Nat had 11.8% effective hitouts from his pool of hitouts won and I am saying the numbers do not agree with that. Sorry if that's been lost in translation lol.

Ok, yeah, had me worried for the state of society there. I'm sure some will argue 'til black and blue just because the app said so, regardless.

The 'attended' part threw me off.

 

[Minga]

Can I just say, pretty nuts that Sharman was playing AFL footy on the weekend, many and myself included, didn’t think he’d be ready for a while given his build. I mean he was playing local footy not that long ago. Good for him, I hope he gets more opportunities this year to make a name for himself.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

That's right

Pubic

 

[kernelT]

Can I just say, pretty nuts that Sharman was playing AFL footy on the weekend, many and myself included, didn’t think he’d be ready for a while given his build. I mean he was playing local footy not that long ago. Good for him, I hope he gets more opportunities this year to make a name for himself.

Also kicked more goals last week than Kenty's last 10 matches combined.

#MOTWYW

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Can I just say, pretty nuts that Sharman was playing AFL footy on the weekend, many and myself included, didn’t think he’d be ready for a while given his build. I mean he was playing local footy not that long ago. Good for him, I hope he gets more opportunities this year to make a name for himself.

Shows we don’t necessarily need to wrap draftees up in bubble wrap. If they try even a little they’ll be putting in the same effort as our regular team. I want to see whatever midfielders we draft given a shot early next year. Let’s see some Walsh, Rowell, Butters, immediate impact

 

[pebblesofsand]

Also kicked more goals last week than Kenty's last 10 matches combined.

#MOTWYW

You forgot Ben Long

13 games, two goals.

 

[kernelT]

You forgot Ben Long

13 games, two goals.

Probably played 7 games forward? still… he's had 12 shots at goal for 2 goals.

Deano - last 12 games, 11 shots at goal for 2 snags.

Lonie - 9 games this year, 13 shots at goal for 4 snags.

Butts 2020 - 39 shots at goal, 16 snags

No wonder we're flying this year, we kick 1 in every 3-4 attempts.