Autopsy Round 20, 2021: St.Kilda v Carlton

[ScrappyDo]

I think people see our side like it exists in a vacuum. Our list still looks really ordinary. When I did an order of our best players we still have very few guns, especially if you look at actual output rather than potential. I'd say until some of our GOPs become good to excellent players we will struggle to do much but knock off teams not expecting us to get them. We look much more like a bottom 4 side than a top 4 side.

My rating of the talent pool, some straddle the two but chose the more constant one.

Elite- Steele
A Grade-
B Grade- Marshall, Jones, Ryder, Howard, Hill, Ross, Billings, Wilkie, Sinclair, Gresham, Crouch, King.
C Grade- Byrnes, DMac, Wood, Dunny, Clark, Higgins, Battle, Webster, Highmore, Membrey, Paton,
D Grade- Coff, Long, Lonie, Frawley, Mc Kernan, Phunter, Bytel, Connolly.
Retire- Hanners, Carlisle, Roberton, McKernan, Geary, Kent, Lonie, Long, Alabakis.
Developing- Allison, Heath, Bytel, Byrnes, Connolly and Sharman.

The worry for me is that a lot of our talent is meh and probably already reached their peak apart from King and a few kids. Building off Steele and King sounds long and slow.

I can't argue with that but we've known for a while that the future rests on the kids development and the trading was to bulk out the mid 20s list hole with competent personnel, Jones, Doogs, Hill, Crouch.

I'm equally disappointed with Long, Batts and Coff, but with the other juniors and Highmore theres some tangible progress.
We're on a knifes edge list wise atm, but what can we do but hope they get it right from here.
On form l have enough faith in them till draft time, but they'd want to get it right.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Still had the third most possessions on the ground and had better efficiency than Crouch. He's improved but he's very agricultural. Guys like Billings, Membrey, Butler, Billings and Long were more of an issue. Didn't turn up until junk time. Carlton pressured us and we couldn't handle it. We seem to fall apart with any kind of pressure on our disposal and just send the ball anywhere.

I would be hoping that Dunstan or Crouch can turn into that handballing machine ala P.Cripps. get the ball, rip it out , handball to a midfielder going through and your jobs done. If they cant get it out then protect it. Just have to keep doing that, every game, thats your role. (Can anyone tell I used to be a coach?)

 

[gringo2011]

I would be hoping that Dunstan or Crouch can turn into that handballing machine ala P.Cripps. get the ball, rip it out , handball to a midfielder going through and your jobs done. If they cant get it out then protect it. Just have to keep doing that, every game, thats your role. (Can anyone tell I used to be a coach?)

Crouch might be injured he's had 2 really ordinary weeks in a row. They were working well together until we changed it up against the Eagles. Crouch seems to play the hand baller, Dunny more a peel off and kick long type.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Didn't assert himself? 22 disposals and 46 hit-outs not assertive enough? We smashed them all day in the ruck, our failure came from the inability to win clearance from our ruck dominance. It was the midfielders that lost us the game.

Come off it George, he won those taps because he was the tallest ruckman on the field up against a 5'9" journeyman who killed him on 2nd efforts. 22 possessions is expected of anyone who plays in the midfield especially someone as highly touted as the air Marshall.

 

[George]

Come off it George, he won those taps because he was the tallest ruckman on the field up against a 5'9" journeyman who killed him on 2nd efforts. 22 possessions is expected of anyone who plays in the midfield especially someone as highly touted as the air Marshall.

What does it matter who he is going against? The comment was he didn't assert himself. He had near on 50 hit-outs and 22 touches, it doesn't matter how taller the other player is in a discussion on assertiveness.

 

[BrutThough]

Come off it George, he won those taps because he was the tallest ruckman on the field up against a 5'9" journeyman who killed him on 2nd efforts. 22 possessions is expected of anyone who plays in the midfield especially someone as highly touted as the air Marshall.

22 disposals and a goal is hardly the expected output from a ruckman. The other only ruck who matched that this weekend was Grundy.

 

[George]

22 possessions is expected of anyone who plays in the midfield especially someone as highly touted as the air Marshall.

I don't know what football you seem to watch but there's no ruckman in the entire competition averaging 22 touches a game. Grundy is the league best with 20.

1. Grundy 20
2. Gawn 18
3. Nankervis 17

Marshall - 15


Do a bit more to look into what you argue.

 

[SaintersUnite]

I don’t understand why we just didn’t tell both our ruckman to thump the ball as far forward as they could at every opportunity and get our mids to play super offensively. We had the height advantage in the ruck to do so.


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[George]

I don’t understand why we just didn’t tell both our ruckman to thump the ball as far forward as they could at every opportunity and get our mids to play super offensively. We had the height advantage in the ruck to do so.


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I would suggest Carlton were roving to our taps, knowing that they weren't winning that battle. It wouldn't matter what the strategy was if they were roving to Marshall as well. We had to win it out of the middle and we didn't take full advantage of that.

 

[Bill Mohr]

The point is, his ruck work wasn't an issue this week. He gave our mids first use but they just didn't take advantage of that, crumbled under Carlton's pressure and then either rushed the ball forward or just executed extremely poorly.

But it was a midfield issue, not a Marshall issue.

Marshall is in the midfield. All of the our midfield got well over 20 disposals, probably more than their midfield, so where did they get those disposals? I doubt they got them in the backline. Marshall should have monstered Silvagni and didnt. It shows you how much the tap out to advantage is worth when you drop at your feet and the opposing Ruckman runs away with it and on a few occasions as well. One thing Ryder very does effectively is that he attacks the body of the opposing ruckman to take him out of getting in any 2nd efforts. Marshall played ok, got 50 hitouts against a much smaller opponent and that's it.

 

[Bill Mohr]

I don’t understand why we just didn’t tell both our ruckman to thump the ball as far forward as they could at every opportunity and get our mids to play super offensively. We had the height advantage in the ruck to do so.


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Might have been the smart thing to do because apparently there was an obscene amount of hit outs to our advantage and the midfield did nothing with them, so he could have taken ours and their midfield right out of the equation. Thats old school stuff though and would not have been considered.

 

[George]

Marshall is in the midfield. All of the our midfield got well over 20 disposals, probably more than their midfield, so where did they get those disposals? I doubt they got them in the backline. Marshall should have monstered Silvagni and didnt. It shows you how much the tap out to advantage is worth when you drop at your feet and the opposing Ruckman runs away with it and on a few occasions as well. One thing Ryder very does effectively is that he attacks the body of the opposing ruckman to take him out of getting in any 2nd efforts. Marshall played ok, got 50 hitouts against a much smaller opponent and that's it.

This is a discussion on if Marshall was assertive or not. He had 46 hit-outs and 22 disposals, above league average for the best ruckmen in the competition. You can argue he could've played better but to argue he was not assertive is a laugh. If you can give me a few numbers that measure assertiveness to you I would love to hear it because 46 and 22 is pretty assertive. Should he have had 70 hit-outs for you to think he was assertive? What does it look like?

Might have been the smart thing to do because apparently there was an obscene amount of hit outs to our advantage and the midfield did nothing with them, so he could have taken ours and their midfield right out of the equation. Thats old school stuff though and would not have been considered.

We were +18 on hit-outs to advantage and won clearance by 3. It shows a lack of ability by the midfield group to maximize first use.

 

[Bill Mohr]

I don't know what football you seem to watch but there's no ruckman in the entire competition averaging 22 touches a game. Grundy is the league best with 20.

1. Grundy 20
2. Gawn 18
3. Nankervis 17

Marshall - 15


Do a bit more to look into what you argue.

I would have watched the same game as you. You said the average touches I didnt, so may be its you who needs to look a bit more into what you argue. Especially as you throw in figures of the best ruckman for this weekend. Nankervis against Darcy, Grundy against Nicnat and Gawn against Zac Smith...and then there was Marshall against Silvagni You didnt dig deep enough. BTW I think the assertiveness meant the physicality of Marshall, not winning a numbers game of the most tapouts through height. Those other ruckman you speak of would have physically & statistically annihilated Silvagni. There's your argument there.

 

[Bill Mohr]

This is a discussion on if Marshall was assertive or not. He had 46 hit-outs and 22 disposals, above league average for the best ruckmen in the competition. You can argue he could've played better but to argue he was not assertive is a laugh. If you can give me a few numbers that measure assertiveness to you I would love to hear it because 46 and 22 is pretty assertive. Should he have had 70 hit-outs for you to think he was assertive? What does it look like?


We were +18 on hit-outs to advantage and won clearance by 3. It shows a lack of ability by the midfield group to maximize first use.

I didnt say he was not assertive, you need to check back on that. But in my previous post I gave you a description on what assertiveness may have meant in the context of a regular big ruckman who was rucking against a utility player.

 

[George]

I would have watched the same game as you. You said the average touches I didnt, so may be its you who needs to look a bit more into what you argue. Especially as you throw in figures of the best ruckman for this weekend. Nankervis against Darcy, Grundy against Nicnat and Gawn against Zac Smith...and then there was Marshall against Silvagni You didnt dig deep enough. BTW I think the assertiveness meant the physicality of Marshall, not winning a numbers game of the most tapouts through height. Those other ruckman you speak of would have physically & statistically annihilated Silvagni. There's your argument there.

Nope, you said 22 touches is expected of anyone that plays in the midfield. For one Marshall is not a midfielder, he is a ruckman, to not categorize him as such is you being deliberately disingenuous. In this specific discussion, you expect midfielders to get 22 touches because you've seen them do it before - this is why I brought up averages, because if you expect something from someone that must mean they have shown you the ability to do it before and do it consistently for that to change from a hope to an expectation. I pointed out to you that no player playing Marshall's position averages the numbers that you expect - so I don't know how you managed to expect a ruckman to get 22 touches. Grundy gets 20 a game. Best in the competition. Marshall 15.

I didn't throw in numbers from this weekend, my numbers are over the course of the season. No ruckman in the entire competition is averaging the numbers you expect of them. I don't know where you came to thinking it should be expected but it's definitely not from watching the game.

So you measure something using things that are immeasurable. Physicality? How would you measure that? Do you think that our midfield group winning clearance by 3 when having an advantage of hit-outs that were +18 a result of Marshall not being physical enough? I don't understand how being more physical results in a better outcome. Would he have had more hit-outs or clearances? Given Marshall has never been a physical ruckman in the way someone like Mumford or even Ryder are, how do you measure Marshall's assertiveness? I go by the numbers in front of me and they tell me that he demolished his opponent in the ruck and gave our midfielders enough opportunity to win the game. Our failure to get the ball from the middle into the forward line and score was self evident and the reason we lost the game. Marshall could've played better, of course, but to say he wasn't assertive...

I didnt say he was not assertive, you need to check back on that. But in my previous post I gave you a description on what assertiveness may have meant in the context of a regular big ruckman who was rucking against a utility player.

The discussion is about Marshall being assertive or not. If you didn't say it why are you taking issue with what I said.

 

[George]

BTW Bill Mohr happy to just agree to disagree on this one. I don't really even know why I'm bothering to argue if Marshall is assertive or not. It kinda dawned on me how dull it all sounds and I can imagine how painful it must be for others to read. I'm off to watch King Otto...not much physicality though

 

[Crusty Undies]

The 7.5 is meant to be a percentage.

From the AFL app, his season and career averages

View attachment 1193206View attachment 1193207

Marshall had enough hit outs and hit outs to advantage but we didnt make the most of his dominance and instead couldn't handle the pressure put on from Carlton's midfield.

I think you're misreading that stat. The H2A isn't a percentage of HOs won, it's a percentage of total ruck contests. 11.7% of ruck contests Nat is involved in result in a H2A.

 

[Bill Mohr]

The discussion is about Marshall being assertive or not. If you didn't say it why are you taking issue with what I said.

I gave you some meaningful information to digest about top ruckmen against each other and then you accuse me of being deceitful. I use a different word than you. You have got the wrong context of the word assertive for starters in trying to use it in a football background of 1 ruckmen verses a utility and who beat who via hitouts, (a numbers game). Yes, he was true and bold and all that stuff.

Like I said and you did not read it or disregarded it, other ruckmen would have been more physical but you dont seem to understand that word or what it means on a football field and the advantages it can give. I disagreed with your assertion that his performance was better than the best ruckmen in the competition, you have used a fair bit of poetic license in that statement as well. I am not talking about averages, you are. My numbers are over this weekend that's what we are talking about. The other problem is where you have been rather sly is deliberately leaving out Silvagni's statistics at centre bounces and at stoppages where he has taken the ball away and from Marshall and then blaming midfielders for that and furthermore saying that he demolished Silvagni in the ruck. So Lets play numbers...... Marshall had 46 hit outs, a goal, 1 clearance and 20 possessions vs Silvagni 26 possessions, a goal, 1 more mark, 5 more tackles, 5 hitouts, 6 clearances, less clangers and he had more time on the ground as well. Did I mention disposal efficiency? There may be other minor stuff which I am sure someone will dredge up, So getting back to your assumption of the original discussion and using your description,-assertive, tell me who was more assertive? And please...Marshall is not just a ruckman.

 

[Noidenous]

I think you're misreading that stat. The H2A isn't a percentage of HOs won, it's a percentage of total ruck contests. 11.7% of ruck contests Nat is involved in result in a H2A.

It's average per game. Presuming there's a bug in the app UI.

222 / 19 = 11.68

Not to mention that almost 40% of his HOs have been to advantage this season.

 

[Bill Mohr]

BTW Bill Mohr happy to just agree to disagree on this one. I don't really even know why I'm bothering to argue if Marshall is assertive or not. It kinda dawned on me how dull it all sounds and I can imagine how painful it must be for others to read. I'm off to watch King Otto...not much physicality though

damn , I just spent 20 minutes typing up a dissertation on that word and other shit. You dont have any issues, all posters are scared of the moderator and will lap it up.

 

[Bill Mohr]

View attachment 1193705

It's average per game.

222 / 19 = 11.68

Now that is boring mate

 

[Noidenous]

Now that is boring mate

I'm a data analyst. Could go all night.

 

[AirWinmar]

Might have been the smart thing to do because apparently there was an obscene amount of hit outs to our advantage and the midfield did nothing with them, so he could have taken ours and their midfield right out of the equation. Thats old school stuff though and would not have been considered.

I was thinking that as well, with such a height advantage why not mix things up by belting it towards your half forwards

 

[aussierulesrules]

G

Give me a break
Stop Walsh and Mackay (coaching), show effort and pressure (coaching and players), then kick better than 30% efficiency we beat the blues.
Dont make excuses, reason we have been a pile of sh*t for so long. We need to be a no excuses club. From the president to our supporters.

Firstly, don’t tell me what to do. I’ll do whatever the **** I feel like.

Secondly, I didn’t make excuses. I said it wasn’t good enough, and basically the whole post was about Carlton, and how in their current form (when McKay is playing) they’re a very long way from the rabble some are making them out to be. As evidenced by them having now won 4 of their last 5 games when he’s played, with the only loss being to the best team in the competition, which they only lost through diabolical kicking for goal.

It was basically a post about Carlton, in response to comments about Carlton.

 

[gringo2011]

What does it matter who he is going against? The comment was he didn't assert himself. He had near on 50 hit-outs and 22 touches, it doesn't matter how taller the other player is in a discussion on assertiveness.

Did you think that he was controlling the ruck until you read the stat sheet? I honestly didn't notice him. Even commentators kept complimenting Silvagni for being good in the ruck. It should have been like an adult playing basketball against children but it was a pretty even contest and certainly not an area of dominance to me. I watch Ryder jumping over guys and slapping it down to our players and get ruck advantage but I didn't see that with Marshall this week.