Autopsy Round 20, 2022: St.Kilda v Hawthorn

[gringo2011]

Got Coff Battle and Long for the Hawks pick. Wasn't traded out but traded up.

Coff was just coming on when knee, Battle has found his place and while we could have had Bolton, Long is no slouch.
Surely you aren't criticising that move as well now.

Bolton would have made it a great trade but having an established midfielder moves a whole lot of pieces around and potentially moves us forward faster. When you aren't playing finals it was crazy to delay getting a player into the club and developing him.

Trout and his crew were pretty ordinary at talent identification on top of that but every year we were picks down from trying to fast track our way out of the bottom half of the ladder. Looking at sides above us on the ladder most have done the bulk of their work through drafting stars in the first 2 rounds.

If Clark and Coff both end up stars I'll eat my words but at the moment it looks like they were good rather than exceptional. If we'd got Naughton instead of one of those guys it might have made it another brilliant move but you don't get a trophy for almost.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

You’re right. I meant first year draftees.

Parker , Wilke, and Hind were first year draftee's.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Agreed. I'd say the Ryan Gamble pick in 2011 was the worst of the bunch because it alienated Tom Lynch (who barely played) and we were searching for a hit up half forward for years. Having said that, perhaps we don't get Membrey if Lynch is around in 2015.

To this stage Clark, Coffield and Gresham have all been some level of unlucky. Lots of impact and structural injuries there rather than soft tissue. Same with McCartin and Hugh Goddard to a certain extent. Billings is the one who really hurts because he has become a slightly above-average GOP, which is tough because of who was drafted after him (Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps were both taken before we took Dunstan at pick 18).

Overall it's been a confluence of events. To be honest, we're probably one absolutely nailed top-10 draft pick away from really competing. Problem is we haven't done that in 20 years, although Max King could be that. Problem is King is not a midfielder.

It was a perfect storm.

Horrible drafting by Peake & co while we were contending.

Sh1tty alignments with Casey & the early years at Sandy

Introduction of Gold Coast & GWS that pilfered top line talent.

Abolition of priority picks

Introduction of Free Agency

Pelchen

Trout playing it safe

Paddy's head


We've really been playing catch up ever since that horrible day in 2010.

 

[True Believer]

The homogenized outcome of our overall list management for an extended period was that we had to nail every single pick to compensate for the mess we created. The recent trade-ins and last years picks (if they continue their current trajectories) mean that we at least are tracking the right way on our overall list development. If Clark, Coff and Gresh can all enjoy a little overdue luck on the injury front then we start to improve. It would help enormously if most of Byrnes, Connolly, Sharman, Heath, Adams, Peris and Allison all showed some positive development signs over the next 12 months.......

 

[gringo2011]

Agreed. I'd say the Ryan Gamble pick in 2011 was the worst of the bunch because it alienated Tom Lynch (who barely played) and we were searching for a hit up half forward for years. Having said that, perhaps we don't get Membrey if Lynch is around in 2015.

To this stage Clark, Coffield and Gresham have all been some level of unlucky. Lots of impact and structural injuries there rather than soft tissue. Same with McCartin and Hugh Goddard to a certain extent. Billings is the one who really hurts because he has become a slightly above-average GOP, which is tough because of who was drafted after him (Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps were both taken before we took Dunstan at pick 18).

Overall it's been a confluence of events. To be honest, we're probably one absolutely nailed top-10 draft pick away from really competing. Problem is we haven't done that in 20 years, although Max King could be that. Problem is King is not a midfielder.

Gresham was a great get and probably getting Carlisle pushed us that was. That was one bit of luck that fell in our laps when if it was raining gold we'd get hit by a turd. Injury has stuffed his continuity up but he has shown his potential to be an absolute A grader if he gets a run at it. Clark and Coffield are unlucky with injury but both are right on the cusp of going from promising to disappointing. It's up to them and some injury luck as to how far they go from here.

Goddard was just too slow and immobile for AFL level footy. Gun junior but couldn't transition it. McCartin is being managed really well but he's a player I doubt would have made it at the Saints. He's at the perfect side to get the best out of him. After being a really unlucky all the way through he found some and I don't begrudge him.

Trout was a guy who was an assistant coach who with no training was thrust into the role. That's on the club not him. We should have had a few guys working under John Bevo ready to take the reigns when he stepped down or chased the best available. Your head recruiter and the strategists behind the list build are your most important people when you are down the bottom of the ladder.

If I was the AFL there would be no priority picks. I'd let them have soft cap increases to pay overs to get those positions filled.

 

[gringo2011]

It was a perfect storm.

Horrible drafting by Peake & co while we were contending.

Sh1tty alignments with Casey & the early years at Sandy

Introduction of Gold Coast & GWS that pilfered top line talent.

Abolition of priority picks

Introduction of Free Agency

Pelchen

Trout playing it safe

Paddy's head


We've really been playing catch up ever since that horrible day in 2010.

Didn't Peake get Tom Lynch and Jamie Cripps? He was only there for a short time and Ross had him topping up a lot of it then wouldn't play the kids anyway. He wasn't great but the real damage was Pelchen and Trout trading out established talent and high picks in the expansion era. Over paying for guys like Hickey and Longer to trade out McEvoy etc. There was some really dumb stuff happening at that time.

 

[Sun Ra]

Didn't Peake get Tom Lynch and Jamie Cripps? He was only there for a short time and Ross had him topping up a lot of it then wouldn't play the kids anyway. He wasn't great but the real damage was Pelchen and Trout trading out established talent and high picks in the expansion era. Over paying for guys like Hickey and Longer to trade out McEvoy etc. There was some really dumb stuff happening at that time.

I didn't realise Stephen J Peake worked in recruiting at the club.

 

[BrutThough]

When you aren't playing finals it was crazy to delay getting a player into the club and developing him.

At a time when we were getting young talent in the door, why was it crazy to get 3 players for 1 first rounder than 1?

Got a bit lucky that the pick we got back from Hawthorn was better than the pick we gave them, but we are clearly better off with all of Clark/Long/Battle with that 2016 first round pick than a single player.

 

[lewdogs]

Bolton would have made it a great trade but having an established midfielder moves a whole lot of pieces around and potentially moves us forward faster. When you aren't playing finals it was crazy to delay getting a player into the club and developing him.

Trout and his crew were pretty ordinary at talent identification on top of that but every year we were picks down from trying to fast track our way out of the bottom half of the ladder. Looking at sides above us on the ladder most have done the bulk of their work through drafting stars in the first 2 rounds.

If Clark and Coff both end up stars I'll eat my words but at the moment it looks like they were good rather than exceptional. If we'd got Naughton instead of one of those guys it might have made it another brilliant move but you don't get a trophy for almost.

If you can't see how good that trade was I'm not sure you're looking. Imagine having Florent instead of Battle Long and Clark.

 

[The Punter]

A rule I have: never compare players in a "who we should have drafted" sense if the player gets drafted by Geelong or Sydney. They could have drafted a statue and coached them up to be a good player.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Didn't Peake get Tom Lynch and Jamie Cripps? He was only there for a short time and Ross had him topping up a lot of it then wouldn't play the kids anyway. He wasn't great but the real damage was Pelchen and Trout trading out established talent and high picks in the expansion era. Over paying for guys like Hickey and Longer to trade out McEvoy etc. There was some really dumb stuff happening at that time.

Yep. And Nicholas Winmar. Lynch was a bizarre call at the time when we had peak Roo & a resurgent Kosi but no young tall defenders or outside mids coming through. Don't get me started on Cripps.

Ross topping up is a bit of a furphy...we traded for Lovett in 09 (who, no matter what anyone says, had the exact attributes & skills that we desperatley needed). The other tops ups were late picks who filled roles.

From what I heard at the time, Hickey was looking like being acquired for a late 2nd rounder until Collingwood started sniffing around. GC upped their demand & in what we rated as a terrible draft (no one thought Grundy would get out of the top 10), begrudgingly handed over the earlier pick.

I didn't mind McEvoy going at the time... he wasn't the player at StK that he became in a super team. He was an ordinary ruckman who could take a great intercept mark. Sadly we didn't choose very wisely with the picks he brought in. It was indicative of how weak our list was at the time that we had no one else of value to help kick start the rebuild (which is on Peake IMO).

 

[gringo2011]

If you can't see how good that trade was I'm not sure you're looking. Imagine having Florent instead of Battle Long and Clark.

Or Coffield. Either way if they aren't guns they are filler which we have never had trouble finding. Battle is the only one that has over performed. Florent is a very good player hidden by the role he plays. When he does have stints on ball he looks like exactly the type we want, skills and quality. Simpkin the better output but lower quality ball use. He would have been a great get though. It all hinges on how far Coff and Clark go. 5 years in and they're yet to go above promising.

It's like getting a huge bag of past use by date shit from NQR. Just because it looks like great value doesn't mean it is. Winning trades is only as good as how it improves your list. The Trout Richo era was a write off for most of it. King looks like the first draft hit where he as unlimited potential for stardom in about 20 years. We have drafted those at a much lower rate than any other club.

Our best players on most likes are ring ins or mature age apart from King plus Sinclair and Marshall, both rookie selections.

Anyone that thinks our drafting and trading in that period was good isn't looking.

 

[gringo2011]

Yep. And Nicholas Winmar. Lynch was a bizarre call at the time when we had peak Roo & a resurgent Kosi but no young tall defenders or outside mids coming through. Don't get me started on Cripps.

Ross topping up is a bit of a furphy...we traded for Lovett in 09 (who, no matter what anyone says, had the exact attributes & skills that we desperatley needed). The other tops ups were late picks who filled roles.

From what I heard at the time, Hickey was looking like being acquired for a late 2nd rounder until Collingwood started sniffing around. GC upped their demand & in what we rated as a terrible draft (no one thought Grundy would get out of the top 10), begrudgingly handed over the earlier pick.

I didn't mind McEvoy going at the time... he wasn't the player at StK that he became in a super team. He was an ordinary ruckman who could take a great intercept mark. Sadly we didn't choose very wisely with the picks he brought in. It was indicative of how weak our list was at the time that we had no one else of value to help kick start the rebuild (which is on Peake IMO).

Also got Peak from Freo, Patterson, Polo, Gamble types etc.

 

[gringo2011]

Yep. And Nicholas Winmar. Lynch was a bizarre call at the time when we had peak Roo & a resurgent Kosi but no young tall defenders or outside mids coming through. Don't get me started on Cripps.

Ross topping up is a bit of a furphy...we traded for Lovett in 09 (who, no matter what anyone says, had the exact attributes & skills that we desperatley needed). The other tops ups were late picks who filled roles.

From what I heard at the time, Hickey was looking like being acquired for a late 2nd rounder until Collingwood started sniffing around. GC upped their demand & in what we rated as a terrible draft (no one thought Grundy would get out of the top 10), begrudgingly handed over the earlier pick.

I didn't mind McEvoy going at the time... he wasn't the player at StK that he became in a super team. He was an ordinary ruckman who could take a great intercept mark. Sadly we didn't choose very wisely with the picks he brought in. It was indicative of how weak our list was at the time that we had no one else of value to help kick start the rebuild (which is on Peake IMO).

How many years was Peake there? I thought he was only there for 2 years?

 

[Diehard Saint]

Parker , Wilke, and Hind were first year draftee's.

National draft...18 year olds...sheesh!

 

[hayes]

If it’s Florent we take with pick 10 then I’d prefer the trade. If we take Jy Simpkin

12

Jy Simpkin

Age

26

Ht

183cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.0

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

8.1

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.3

5star

CL

2.9

4star

D

20.6

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

9.6

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.5

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.2

2star

with it then I’d rather have him then make the trade. Would’ve been nice if the Hawks collapsed just that little bit more though.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

National draft...18 year olds...sheesh!

Those three were all national draft, just taken a bit older. You have to draft them to play them.
For 18YO's we need to go back to 2015 when Paddy, Lonie, and Sinclair combined for 41 games.
2014 we had Dunstan and Billings with 16 each, as well as Acres with 4 and Templeton with 6.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Hickey hardly a bad trade given the position he's currently in and the other picks we probably would have taken if we hadn't.
At best we'd have probably ended with Aiden Corr or something.
If we'd picked Stewart with the pick we got back we'd still be rolling round laughing at the trade.

Similarly the Hawks deal was amazing if we didn't get Ben Long

22

Ben Long

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

MG

166.8

3star

D

12.8

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.3

3star

MG

129.0

2star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.2

5star

MG

223.0

4star

( Cyril ) instead of Lipinski or Bolton.
Strategy TICK. Talent identification CROSS.

The Hawks offer for big Ben was almost too good to refuse except we pissed it away on Longer, and Dunstan.
We could have gone into that draft with 3, 18,19 , 24 .

Potential for : Bont, McStay, M Crouch , Merrett.
Instead. Billings, Acres, Dunstan, Longer.

Strategy TICK Talent identification CROSS.

 

[The Punter]

No way Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

is Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

if we draft him. Zero chance. Lipinski is at club #2. I'm not certain we could have done better than Long.

 

[AirWinmar]

Hickey hardly a bad trade given the position he's currently in and the other picks we probably would have taken if we hadn't.
At best we'd have probably ended with Aiden Corr or something.
If we'd picked Stewart with the pick we got back we'd still be rolling round laughing at the trade.

Similarly the Hawks deal was amazing if we didn't get Ben Long ( Cyril ) instead of Lipinski or Bolton.
Strategy TICK. Talent identification CROSS.

The Hawks offer for big Ben was almost too good to refuse except we pissed it away on Longer, and Dunstan.
We could have gone into that draft with 3, 18,19 , 24 .

Potential for : Bont, McStay, M Crouch , Merrett.
Instead. Billings, Acres, Dunstan, Longer.

Strategy TICK Talent identification CROSS.

Or is it development

 

[StCicatriz]

Yep. And Nicholas Winmar. Lynch was a bizarre call at the time when we had peak Roo & a resurgent Kosi but no young tall defenders or outside mids coming through. Don't get me started on Cripps.

Ross topping up is a bit of a furphy...we traded for Lovett in 09 (who, no matter what anyone says, had the exact attributes & skills that we desperatley needed). The other tops ups were late picks who filled roles.

From what I heard at the time, Hickey was looking like being acquired for a late 2nd rounder until Collingwood started sniffing around. GC upped their demand & in what we rated as a terrible draft (no one thought Grundy would get out of the top 10), begrudgingly handed over the earlier pick.

I didn't mind McEvoy going at the time... he wasn't the player at StK that he became in a super team. He was an ordinary ruckman who could take a great intercept mark. Sadly we didn't choose very wisely with the picks he brought in. It was indicative of how weak our list was at the time that we had no one else of value to help kick start the rebuild (which is on Peake IMO).

then people use the lack of tall fwds to justify the Tom Lee, Maister and McCartin selections...

 

[Sun Ra]

then people use the lack of tall fwds to justify the Tom Lee, Maister and McCartin selections...

Maister was a Meister stroke !

 

[bergholt]

Agreed. I'd say the Ryan Gamble pick in 2011 was the worst of the bunch because it alienated Tom Lynch (who barely played) and we were searching for a hit up half forward for years.

Was that around the time we had Ryan O'Keefe speculation yearly?

 

[StCicatriz]

Maister was a Meister stroke !

we've been maister debating ever since!

 

[bergholt]

The homogenized outcome of our overall list management for an extended period was that we had to nail every single pick to compensate for the mess we created.

Yes, but that's also what happens when you get smart and try to shape your list. "Oh we'll need a tall forward eventually so we better draft one." But if the tall forward doesn't work out then you still haven't got one, and you also haven't got the running player you would have taken in their place - who are more predictable at underage level.

Whereas drafting mids with most picks means you have the best possible chance of getting a good midfield, which is where you need the most players, and then you can fill gaps around that as needed.

Mids, mids, and more mids.