Preview Round 21 – Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants, Friday 11th August, 7.50pm, Etihad Stadium

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You seriously misunderstand ruckwork, understandable becuase you dont have a competent ruck.
An appropriate analogy is a tug of war, with both teams usually fairly evenly matched small differences will decide the result.That's where strategy is relevant. If, however, there's a large different in weight then strategy doesn't really matter, power will win.
Previous years are clearly irrelevant as the changes to the rule this year removed the ability to avoid a one on one contest, except by opting out of the contest entirely.
I'm sure Dawson will be training this week the option of taking direct posession or using the lack of opposition to feed the outside mids in space directly with dominant punches if this happens. It probably will.

How does the competency of our ruckman impact upon my knowledge of ruck work? We had the All-Australian ruck less than 4 years ago. Does that make me an expert at ruck work? No. Does GWS never having an AA ruck mean its supporters are clueless about the ruck position? No. Don't be daft.

Anyway, this doesn't have to be some pissing contest; it was a discussion about strategy.

There's a philosophical difference in how our midfields are structured for stoppages: The hit out differential was +37 to the Giants last time we played. But clearances were only +2. That's par for course for us. We've lost raw hit out numbers routinely by large margins over the last 3 years, but have frequently been in the top few, if not at the top, for clearance differential, throughout. We don't have an elite tap ruckman, so our structures are predicated on mostly losing hit outs. E.g. Stefan Martin killed us in hit outs last week; we won the clearances by +15. That's why rucking Ayce Cordy, Lin Jong, Josh Dunkley, Bont, etc on occasion hasn't been fatal for us (though far from ideal). We don't try not to win hit outs, but we've planned for that being the reality. If we had prime Dean Cox, I'm sure we'd quickly change our structures.

It follows that where one team has set up to mostly win hit outs, and the other has set up to mostly lose them, and that's exactly how it plays out, then the ruck contest isn't going to have much bearing unless something unusual occurs in addition to or outside of that e.g. Roughead suddenly dominating hit outs, or Simpson sticking 10 tackles, or kicking 3 goals.
 
You seriously misunderstand ruckwork, understandable becuase you dont have a competent ruck.
An appropriate analogy is a tug of war, with both eams usually fairly evenly matched small differences will decide the result.That's where strategy is relevant. If, however, there's a large different in weight then strategy doesn't really matter, power will win.
Previous years are clearly irrelevant as the changes to the rule this year removed the ability to avoid a one on one contest, except by opting out of the contest entirely.
I'm sure Dawson will be training this week the option of taking direct posession or using the lack of opposition to feed the outside mids in space directly with dominant punches if this happens. It probably will.
If you look at the our last five games, we've been smashed in the ruck - losing hitouts by 18, 35, 17, 15 and 14 respectively. We've still managed to win the clearances in each of those games though. This is what TiAn_ is referring to - we are well aware we can't match other sides in the ruck, so nullify that at ground level. Admittedly our opponents haven't had top standard midfields over the past month, however that period also includes Adelaide who won the ruck 41-23 yet we still doubled their clearances.

Last time we played GWS, these stats (with Mumford in) were hitouts 60-25 in your favour, whilst clearances were pretty much even (40-38).

The glaring issue with us is that we can win the clearance, irrespective of who's winning the hit-out, but continue to butcher it moving forward.

That also opens us up to fast rebounds, which was nearly our undoing against Brisbane last week - we smashed them in the inside 50 count 64 to 37, but couldn't hit a target going in, so they'd regularly open us up and score on the break. We're particularly vulnerable to that at the moment with our young defence.
 
Agree that the two midfields will decide the game, ours certainly did last week.
Our setup though is not easy to predict, we have had to make changes of significance every week, making it particularly hard for the younger guys who play role 3b last week, 1a the one before and whatever the hell 4c is this week..
Assuming the midfield is intact this week the giant's mids have the edge on talent, but effort will be more important and that's been highly variable for us.

Should be a cracking game, especially under the roof.
 

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How does the competency of our ruckman impact upon my knowledge of ruck work? We had the All-Australian ruck less than 4 years ago. Does that make me an expert at ruck work? No. Does GWS never having an AA ruck mean its supporters are clueless about the ruck position? No. Don't be daft.

Anyway, this doesn't have to be some pissing contest; it was a discussion about strategy.

There's a philosophical difference in how our midfields are structured for stoppages: The hit out differential was +37 to the Giants last time we played. But clearances were only +2. That's par for course for us. We've lost raw hit out numbers routinely by large margins over the last 3 years, but have frequently been in the top few, if not at the top, for clearance differential, throughout. We don't have an elite tap ruckman, so our structures are predicated on mostly losing hit outs. E.g. Stefan Martin killed us in hit outs last week; we won the clearances by +15. That's why rucking Ayce Cordy, Lin Jong, Josh Dunkley, Bont, etc on occasion hasn't been fatal for us (though far from ideal). We don't try not to win hit outs, but we've planned for that being the reality. If we had prime Dean Cox, I'm sure we'd quickly change our structures.

It follows that where one team has set up to mostly win hit outs, and the other has set up to mostly lose them, and that's exactly how it plays out, then the ruck contest isn't going to have much bearing unless something unusual occurs in addition to or outside of that e.g. Roughead suddenly dominating hit outs, or Simpson sticking 10 tackles, or kicking 3 goals.
Fair enough I was giving you too much credit, in allowing for the fact you wouldn't have much opportunity to see competent ruckwork. I accept you just dont know much about football, in which case further discussion is meaningless.
 
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My thing with this game is leon likes a contested ball scrap... but that's where the dogs are probably strongest. It's why they play well against us cos we try to go head to head with their biggest strength.

I would like us to open the game up a little bit this week, play more run and carry, daring football. Of course that means we will be exposed on the counter, but if you watched last week, the lesson I took was he dogs are vulnerable on the outside running game

I feel a lot more comfortable about this game now that Coniglio and Hopper are back, but I worry that we'll see the usual problem of our guys acting like chickens with their heads cut off when they start getting pressured - frantic handballs to disadvantage or guys that are also under immediate pressure, leading to turnovers.

We really need to settle it if the Bulldogs bring pressure (which they usually do, though they were definitely down last week against the Lions) and if that means reverting to bombing the ball down the line all night and taking boundary throw-ins because plan A isn't working, I'll accept that.
 
Fair enough I was giving you too much credit, in allowing for the fact you wouldn't have much opportunity to see competent ruckwork. I accept you just dont know much about football, in which case further discussion is meaningless.

Give the Lions v Dogs game a watch and you'll see what he means. The Dogs repeatedly set up to shark Martin's taps, playing in front of their man and crowding the area around Martin. Part of the reason they got away with it was because the Lions have a very young (McCluggage, Berry) or small (Zorko) or injured (Beams, Rockliff) mid brigade so they weren't able to assert themselves at the contest and needed defensive turnovers to maintain pressure. The Giants should do better and can't or at least shouldn't be as passive around Dawson.
 
Give the Lions v Dogs game a watch and you'll see what he means. The Dogs repeatedly set up to shark Martin's taps, playing in front of their man and crowding the area around Martin. Part of the reason they got away with it was because the Lions have a very young (McCluggage, Berry) or small (Zorko) or injured (Beams, Rockliff) mid brigade so they weren't able to assert themselves at the contest and needed defensive turnovers to maintain pressure. The Giants should do better and can't or at least shouldn't be as passive around Dawson.
I don't expect it will be anywhere near as effective against a midfield of the Giants calibre when compared to Brisbane's, but I was surprised to see the stats from the last time we met (which was probably one of the best games we've played this year, despite losing).

I think our real concern is the outside class you guys have which could see us smashed on the turnover. If we play like we did against Brisbane or Essendon, we're going to get smashed. I'm sure Bevo has a plan to counter that though.
 
Give the Lions v Dogs game a watch and you'll see what he means. The Dogs repeatedly set up to shark Martin's taps, playing in front of their man and crowding the area around Martin. Part of the reason they got away with it was because the Lions have a very young (McCluggage, Berry) or small (Zorko) or injured (Beams, Rockliff) mid brigade so they weren't able to assert themselves at the contest and needed defensive turnovers to maintain pressure. The Giants should do better and can't or at least shouldn't be as passive around Dawson.
I get the Lions are a developing side with their share of talent. As you say their midfield is not ours though, and a narrow win against them doesn't indicate much of a reason for confidence they can win on Friday night.
Any result is possible in a game of AFL but I'll be disappointed if it's not a dominant win. The Bulldogs form has been against low ranked teams and we've mostly been playing the better sides.
I do think you can overcome weaknesses with strength in other areas but it will come back to bite you at some point. I think the Bulldogs are weak in their talls generally and rucks in particular, and you just cant give advantage to good sides.
Their mids have to be significantly better than other teams to compensate in my view, and they are very good.
They dont have the advantage they had last year though, and that exposes their weaknesses.
 
I watched Simpson closely in Lid's neafl return and again in the Freo game. In both, not only did he win the tap outs, but he also won the Hit outs to advantage - and by a long way. It was beautiful watching him put it straight down the throats of the giants mids.

I know the dogs don't have a ruckman (so to speak) and that they rely on sharking and I expect them to shark their fair share, (certainly more than Freo or Sydney Uni) but still, big Daws should not be underestimated in this regard.
 
I watched Simpson closely in Lid's neafl return and again in the Freo game. In both, not only did he win the tap outs, but he also won the Hit outs to advantage - and by a long way. It was beautiful watching him put it straight down the throats of the giants mids.

I know the dogs don't have a ruckman (so to speak) and that they rely on sharking and I expect them to shark their fair share, (certainly more than Freo or Sydney Uni) but still, big Daws should not be underestimated in this regard.
Agree, I think he even possibly offers better tapwork at the expense of the extra inside mid Mummy does, Mummy out is a deficit for sure, but not calamity as it was a few years back..
 

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Its funny. Every time someone has a champion retire their team lifts for them.

No one deserves that to happen for as much as bob Murphy. That worried me for this match

We may as well do it for Stevie ;)



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Yeah, but won't they be doing it for Dale Morris?
Probably means more to them than Stevie does for us.
 
Our opposition dont seem to think much of Simpson.

Thinking he will change their tune tomorrow


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To be fair they generally struggle to respect themselves and their own players. A real stretch to think they can respect other clubs.
 
Corr Davis Haynes
Wilson Tomlinson Shaw
Whitfield Shiel Kelly
Greene Patton Deledio
Smith Lobb Johnson
Simpson Cogs Ward

Hopper Kennedy Williams Scully

Fair side. They have to bring tackle pressure and build off that. Dogs will be playing for frees and will get plenty in front of their home crowd.
 
Corr Davis Haynes
Wilson Tomlinson Shaw
Whitfield Shiel Kelly
Greene Patton Deledio
Smith Lobb Johnson
Simpson Cogs Ward

Hopper Kennedy Williams Scully

Fair side. They have to bring tackle pressure and build off that. Dogs will be playing for frees and will get plenty in front of their home crowd.

That is close to what I would have it is just as the Dogs have a small forward line and also the style of play if it is required to play all the talls at the back and if an extra mid is better or even have Lobb play as ruck with back up from Tomlinson/Patton or even Corr depending on who the Dogs pick to ruck
I will have the answer in 5 1/2 hours for those interested:p
 
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Corr Davis Haynes
Wilson Tommo Shaw
Kelly Ward Scully
Greene Lids Whitfield
Smith Patton DeBoar

Lobb Sheil Cogs

Kennedy Williams Steve Hopper

That's what I would pick!
Keep that forward line mobile
 

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Preview Round 21 – Western Bulldogs vs GWS Giants, Friday 11th August, 7.50pm, Etihad Stadium

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