Preview Round 3: Melbourne vs Essendon, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Friday 01/04/2022 @ 7:40 PM

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eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Last Week

Melbourne: Melbourne had a small win against Gold Coast, leading at every break to round out 13 point winners. Christian Petracca starred with 40 disposals whilst key forward/ruck Luke Jackson was impressive up forward with 21 disposals, 16 hitouts and two goals, and Jake Bowey was impressive off half back with 34 disposals and 9 marks to really settle himself in the side

Essendon: After a fast start to lead by 22 at quarter time Essendon faded against Brisbane, going down by that same margin. Darcy Parish was back to his 2021 form after a poor first game, collecting 35 disposals and 6 clearances, meanwhile forward/ruck Peter Wright kicked 3 goals to go with 13 touches, finally Jordan Ridley had 21 disposals and 7 intercepts across half back as a spare player


Head to Head (last 5)

Melbourne 4-1 Essendon


Form Guide

Melbourne: 2W 0L
Essendon: 0W 2L


Possible sides

Melbourne vs Essendon

FB: Jake Lever - Steven May - Joel Smith
FF: Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Jake Stringer
HB: Jake Bowey - Adam Tomlinson - Trent Rivers
HF: Alec Waterman - Aaron Francis - Tex Wanganeen
MF: James Jordan - Clayton Oliver - Ed Langdon
MF: Sam Durham - Andrew McGrath - Nic Martin
HF: Charlie Spargo - Tom McDonald - Alex Neal-Bullen
HB: Jordan Ridley - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind
FF: Kysaiah Pickett - Ben Brown - Luke Jackson
FB: Jake Kelly - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
OB: Max Gawn - Christian Petracca - Jack Viney
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Jye Caldwell
IC: James Harmes - Angus Brayshaw - Bayley Fritsch - Tom Sparrow
IC: Dyson Heppell - Mason Redman - Ben Hobbs - Matt Guelfi
MS: Jayden Hunt
MS: Devon Smith

Melbourne in: Lever; Out: Toby Bedford (unused sub)
Essendon in: Hobbs, Waterman, Martin, Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Nik Cox (ankle), Zachary Merrett (ankle), Braydon Ham, Tom Cutler (both omitted)


Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon were the second most efficient forward line in the AFL last season, kicking a goal 24.78% of the time it enters their forward 50. Melbourne were the strongest team defensively, conceding a goal only 19.21% of the time it entered their forward 50. Steven May on Peter Wright will be the main attraction, the former teammates and good friends had a cracking match-up last year, whilst Jake Stringer will receive attention from the underrated Adam Tomlinson as he builds more game time. Tex Wanganeen might get his first taste of AFL level after a debut as sub last week, look for the undefeated Jake Bowey to go to him whilst Aaron Francis tries to quell Jake Lever's influence in the air.


Midfield/rucks battle

After two rounds, Melbourne have continued their dominance in the middle from last year, winning the contested possessions by an average of 22 but losing the clearances so far, whilst the Bombers have been smashed in both areas so far. When you look at the quality of Melbourne's midfield it's no surprise that they're so dominant on the inside, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver in particular going great guns, whilst Essendon's big names have struggled to have an impact so far this year, Jye Caldwell the only one to have two strong games against Geelong and Brisbane, unlike his much vaunted teammates like Darcy Parish and Zachary Merrett. On the outside, Ed Langdon had a great year last year, but will likely go head-to-head with Nic Martin, who's debut was excellent in a losing side. Rucks wise, Max Gawn has been the best in the business for a long time whilst Sam Draper hasn't had the best start to the year, hopefully coming up against the best has him primed to play well


Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence

Melbourne were 12th in the AFL in terms of goals/inside 50 last year, kicking a goal only 22.17% of the time it went in. Essendon steadily improved in terms of goals per inside 50 as the season's gone on, from being clear cut bottom 2 at the bye to 12th after home and away is finished, conceding a goal 23.53% of the time. Melbourne have a very tall forward line with three genuine key forwards, headlined by Ben Brown who might get manned by the returning Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, and Luke Jackson will receive attention from James Stewart, who has struggled at the start of this year and will be a tough match-up for him. Kysaiah Pickett will be electric as ever and will most likely be manned by Jake Kelly, who struggled last year against the Dees.


X-Factor Player

Bayley Fritsch kicked 5 goals in the Grand Final last year, the medium forward one of the hardest match ups in the AFL with his speed and strong hands, and will be a nightmare for anyone to defend


Key stat

Melbourne: Goals conceded per I50. Melbourne were dominant in this aspect last year and it's the cornerstone of their success.

Essendon: Clearances. Need to get back on top of this area of the ground to be competitive against the best in the league.


Tip

Melbourne by 33
 
Last edited:
Our forward line is a major issue and we are sorely missing Tippa, Jones, Snelling & Langford for their forward craft and goal kicking abilities…
Francis isn’t the answer - he simply cannot kick goals which is required as forward - why we persist with this I do not know especially when he is a more than decent defender - surely Stewart or even Laverde would offer more.
I’d also like to see Bryan get a run as a back up ruck and tall forward option - keep 2MP in the forward line.
Heppell looks shot hope he can bounce back…

OUT: Ham, Cutler, Smith, Cox, Guelfi (becomes SUB)
IN: Martin, Shiel, Waterman, Bryan, Wanga

Team;-

Ridley Laverde Kelly
Redman Francis Hind
Merrett Stringer Durham
Caldwell Stewart Perkins
Waterman 2MP Wanga

Draper Shiel Parish

Bench: McGrath Martin Heppell Bryan
SUB: Guelfi
 
Last edited:

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With Snelling out, just get Hobbs in

"First-round pick Ben Hobbs made a strong claim for an AFL debut in the Bombers' VFL side, picking up 19 touches, six tackles and seven clearances"
 
Out: Ham, Smith, Redman, Stewart, Cox (inj)

In: Martin, Wanganeen, Shiel, Zerk, Phillips

Guelfi saved only because Snelling and Tippa aren’t fit yet. Not too sure on the last spot. I think we need another forward marking option in there, Phillips can at least take marks around the ground and give a chip out to Draper to allow him to get forward more and allow 2MP to focus on being forward. Ideally Bryan would be the one doing this role but not sure if his forward craft and around the ground marking is at that level yet. Otherwise Waterman is a good option too.

I don’t care how bad Zerk apparently is, I find it hard to believe he could be worse than Stewart.

Hopefully Hobbs and Wanganeen aren’t too far away. Wanganeen especially is needed given our current lack of natural goal kickers.
 
Bombers36 said:
Our forward line is a major issue and we are sorely missing Tippa, Jones, Snelling & Langford for their forward craft and goal kicking abilities…
Francis isn’t the answer - he simply cannot kick goals which is required as forward - why we persist with this I do not know especially when he is a more than decent defender - surely Stewart or even Laverde would offer more.
I’d also like to see Bryan get a run as a back up ruck and tall forward option - keep 2MP in the forward line.
Heppell looks shot hope he can bounce back…

OUT: Ham, Cutler, Smith, Cox, Guelfi (becomes SUB)
IN: Martin, Shiel, Waterman, Bryan, Wanga

Team;-

Ridley Laverde Kelly
Redman Francis Hind
Merrett Stringer Durham
Caldwell Stewart Perkins
Waterman 2MP Wanga

Draper Shiel Parish

Bench: McGrath Martin Heppell Bryan
SUB: Guelfi
Click to expand...
So Francis out because he could not convert set shots but you would like to see Byran in the forward line ? have you actually seen how many goals he has kicked in the VFL and previously at under 18 level ? He has pretty much kicked 2 goals so far in his career.
 
After watching Hawthorn last night just get the kids in. Port were average but the youth of Hawthorn just had an appetite and enthusiasm for the contest.
 
Surely Hobbs will be better value than either Smith or Guelfi ? Get him in

Should play Phillips against Dees. Jackson is on fire and playing Wright in the ruck takes too much away from out forward line. Phillips can take a grab forward as well.
 
10 goal loss easily, as they won’t ring any changes. People asking for Smith and Stewart to be dropped are kidding themselves. Smith has been dishing up the same shit for over 12 months now, getting a free ride.

Same old Essendon, no accountability.

There will be minimal changes, I’d almost bet it’s:
Out: Cox (inj) Ham
In: Martin, Wanganeen
 
If Wanganeen is ready I'd rather give him a debut against Adelaide (round 4) then Melbourne (round 3)
Next week is going to be a car crash.
 

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In: Martin and Shiel are the definite ones to come in.
Out: Ham and Cox (inj) the most likely to make way.

Depending on Merrett's injury, but he looks like he might be OK.

edit: I'm not a fan of big changes but...
Francis out for Baldwin
We are going through a rebuild, may as well see what he can do. Baldwin kicked 3 in the VFL in a team that was thumped. Seems like good practice for the Melbourne game.

I think Wanganeen get's a game before Hobbs, if I'm reading the talk from the club correctly. Probably needs some full games in the VFL, but you'd have to think that Smith's spot is under pressure.
 
Last edited:
horj89 said:
After watching Hawthorn last night just get the kids in. Port were average but the youth of Hawthorn just had an appetite and enthusiasm for the contest.
Click to expand...
Hawks under 20-3 Bombers - 0
Hawks 20-23 8 Bombers 7
Hawks 23-26 2 Bombers 8
hawks over 26 9 Bombers 7
Have not seen the whole game but 3 of their named best where in the over 26 and 2 where in the 23 to 26 age.
Play the kids yes but you also need experience to go with it.
 
horj89 said:
After watching Hawthorn last night just get the kids in. Port were average but the youth of Hawthorn just had an appetite and enthusiasm for the contest.
Click to expand...
Hawthorn might have an era where they win 4 premierships bottom out and finish higher than us in 2022
what an indictment that would be on the people running our footy club
 
ant555 said:
Hawks under 20-3 Bombers - 0
Hawks 20-23 8 Bombers 7
Hawks 23-26 2 Bombers 8
hawks over 26 9 Bombers 7
Have not seen the whole game but 3 of their named best where in the over 26 and 2 where in the 23 to 26 age.
Play the kids yes but you also need experience to go with it.
Click to expand...
Great post
the issue is their leaders/experienced players are winners at afl level while to be frank heppell, merrett and co have experienced minimal team success
 
ant555 said:
So Francis out because he could not convert set shots but you would like to see Byran in the forward line ? have you actually seen how many goals he has kicked in the VFL and previously at under 18 level ? He has pretty much kicked 2 goals so far in his career.
Click to expand...
Yeah i dont agree with the notion of bryan over francis.
3 rucks would kill us.

In: martin, hobbs, waterman, zerk, baldwin, shiel
Out: ham, cox, stewart, redman, smith, guelfi

Ridley zerk kelly
Hind Laverde mcgrath
Merrett parish durham
Martin francis perkins
Waterman wright baldwin
Draper shiel stringer
Caldwell heppell hobbs cutler

I expect none of this.

At best, cox out injured.
Tex in given he was sub and we throw a 1st gamer small forward to the sharks. Welcome to the afl.
 
Slim pickings at VFL level. Hobbs 19 touches for a mid doesn't give you any confidence at AFL level. Him or Waterman.

Ins: Martin, Shiel, Wanganeen, BZT, Phillips, Waterman
Outs: Cox, Ham, Smith, Stewart, Heppell, Cutler

Francis BZT Kelly
Redman Laverde Ridley
Shiel Parish Durham
Martin Stringer Perkins
Hind Wright Wanganeen
Draper Merrett Caldwell
Phillips Guelfi Waterman, McGrath

Impossible to cobble a decent 22 at this stage. I'm going with 3 rucks, Francis back.

McGrath to Pickett - teach him how to defend a small forward.
Kelly to Fritsch - I don't rate Fritsch under serious defensive heat.
Hind goes forward - we need better defensive pressure in the forward half. He can run around like a headless chook up front.
Ridley can be the spare and play Heppells role.

2 big guys up forward, resting ruck at times, at least we can go long and hopefully their size gets it to ground and Perkins, Wanganeen, Martin can mop up.

I give up.
 
Last edited:
eth-dog said:
Last Week

Melbourne: Melbourne had a small win against Gold Coast, leading at every break to round out 13 point winners. Christian Petracca starred with 40 disposals whilst key forward/ruck Luke Jackson was impressive up forward with 21 disposals, 16 hitouts and two goals, and Jake Bowey was impressive off half back with 34 disposals and 9 marks to really settle himself in the side

Essendon: After a fast start to lead by 22 at quarter time Essendon faded against Brisbane, going down by that same margin. Darcy Parish was back to his 2021 form after a poor first game, collecting 35 disposals and 6 clearances, meanwhile forward/ruck Peter Wright kicked 3 goals to go with 13 touches, finally Jordan Ridley had 21 disposals and 7 intercepts across half back as a spare player


Head to Head (last 5)

Melbourne 4-1 Essendon


Form Guide

Melbourne: 2W 0L
Essendon: 0W 2L


Possible sides

Melbourne vs Essendon

FB: Jake Lever - Steven May - Joel Smith
FF: Archie Perkins - Peter Wright - Jake Stringer
HB: Jake Bowey - Adam Tomlinson - Trent Rivers
HF: Alec Waterman - Aaron Francis - Tex Wanganeen
MF: James Jordan - Clayton Oliver - Ed Langdon
MF: Zach Merrett - Andrew McGrath - Nic Martin
HF: Charlie Spargo - Tom McDonald - Alex Neal-Bullen
HB: Jordan Ridley - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind
FF: Kysaiah Pickett - Ben Brown - Luke Jackson
FB: Jake Kelly - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
OB: Max Gawn - Christian Petracca - Jack Viney
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Jye Caldwell
IC: James Harmes - Angus Brayshaw - Bayley Fritsch - Tom Sparrow
IC: Dyson Heppell - Mason Redman - Sam Durham - Ben Hobbs
MS: Jayden Hunt
MS: Matt Guelfi

Melbourne in: Lever; Out: Toby Bedford (unused sub)
Essendon in: Hobbs, Waterman, Martin, Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Nik Cox (ankle), Devon Smith, Braydon Ham, Tom Cutler (all omitted)


Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon were the second most efficient forward line in the AFL last season, kicking a goal 24.78% of the time it enters their forward 50. Melbourne were the strongest team defensively, conceding a goal only 19.21% of the time it entered their forward 50. Steven May on Peter Wright will be the main attraction, the former teammates and good friends had a cracking match-up last year, whilst Jake Stringer will receive attention from the underrated Adam Tomlinson as he builds more game time. Tex Wanganeen might get his first taste of AFL level after a debut as sub last week, look for the undefeated Jake Bowey to go to him whilst Aaron Francis tries to quell Jake Lever's influence in the air.


Midfield/rucks battle

After two rounds, Melbourne have continued their dominance in the middle from last year, winning the contested possessions by an average of 22 but losing the clearances so far, whilst the Bombers have been smashed in both areas so far. When you look at the quality of Melbourne's midfield it's no surprise that they're so dominant on the inside, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver in particular going great guns, whilst Essendon's big names have struggled to have an impact so far this year, Jye Caldwell the only one to have two strong games against Geelong and Brisbane, unlike his much vaunted teammates like Darcy Parish and Zachary Merrett. On the outside, Ed Langdon had a great year last year, but will likely go head-to-head with Nic Martin, who's debut was excellent in a losing side. Rucks wise, Max Gawn has been the best in the business for a long time whilst Sam Draper hasn't had the best start to the year, hopefully coming up against the best has him primed to play well


Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence

Melbourne were 12th in the AFL in terms of goals/inside 50 last year, kicking a goal only 22.17% of the time it went in. Essendon steadily improved in terms of goals per inside 50 as the season's gone on, from being clear cut bottom 2 at the bye to 12th after home and away is finished, conceding a goal 23.53% of the time. Melbourne have a very tall forward line with three genuine key forwards, headlined by Ben Brown who might get manned by the returning Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, and Luke Jackson will receive attention from James Stewart, who has struggled at the start of this year and will be a tough match-up for him. Kysaiah Pickett will be electric as ever and will most likely be manned by Jake Kelly, who struggled last year against the Dees.


X-Factor Player

Bayley Fritsch kicked 5 goals in the Grand Final last year, the medium forward one of the hardest match ups in the AFL with his speed and strong hands, and will be a nightmare for anyone to defend


Key stat

Melbourne: Goals conceded per I50. Melbourne were dominant in this aspect last year and it's the cornerstone of their success.

Essendon: Clearances. Need to get back on top of this area of the ground to be competitive against the best in the league.


Tip

Melbourne by 33
Click to expand...
I think you left out the 1 that’s supposed to go in front of the 33…..
 
Get through this week with minimal damage % wise and injury wise and we have 5 winnable games. Can’t pencil anything in of course especially the way we are playing.

Hopefully start to get Jones, Snelling, Shiel, Langford. Hopefully even Reid and Tippa after some VFL time.
 
kelvin_sheedy said:
Slim pickings at VFL level. Hobbs 19 touches for a mid doesn't give you any confidence at AFL level. Him or Waterman.

Ins: Martin, Shiel, Wanganeen, BZT, Phillips, Waterman
Outs: Cox, Ham, Smith, Stewart, Heppell, Cutler

Francis BZT Kelly
Redman Laverde Ridley
Shiel Parish Durham
Martin Stringer Perkins
Hind Wright Wanganeen
Draper Merrett Caldwell
Phillips Guelfi Waterman, McGrath

Impossible to cobble a decent 22 at this stage. I'm going with 3 rucks, Francis back.

McGrath to Pickett - teach him how to defend a small forward.
Kelly to Fritsch - I don't rate Fritsch under serious defensive heat.
Hind goes forward - we need better defensive pressure in the forward half. He can run around like a headless chook up front.
Ridley can be the spare and play Heppells role.

2 big guys up forward, resting ruck at times, at least we can go long and hopefully their size gets it to ground and Perkins, Wanganeen, Martin can mop up.

I give up.
Click to expand...

Yet, here you are again. :p
 
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