Marlowe
𝓤𝓷𝓽𝓸𝓾𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮
- Mar 12, 2012
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- Gold City Royals
Macrae seems like a good pick to me then. He's scoring while the Dogs suck, imagine he'll do no worse when they and if they begin winning.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Round 3 Trades
- Thread starter OhhhhhCyril
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Macrae seems like a good pick to me then. He's scoring while the Dogs suck, imagine he'll do no worse when they and if they begin winning.
- Nov 30, 2016
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- St Kilda
Hibberd > Shaw
Naughton > Bonner
or
Hibberd > Simpson
ZGL > Gowers
Naughton > Bonner
or
Hibberd > Simpson
ZGL > Gowers
WaynesWorld19
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- #1,478
This !
WaynesWorld19
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- #1,479
He's a great pick .....great POD ....but would you have him in your current top 6 midfielders ATM ?
- Jun 14, 2011
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I would be holding Sicily given he has a very nice draw and has showed his scoring potential in round 1
WaynesWorld19
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This is what i wrestled with ......but i chose Sicily for a reason, two weeks ago ....and that R1 score was impressive, with inverse shitty performance R2
- Jul 5, 2017
- 2,476
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- Essendon
So with teams out, looks like I need to trade out:
Clark & D.Fogarty
Already have:
MID:Holman, Kelly, Brayshaw, Banfield
FWD:Ryan, Fritsch, ZGL
What are my best rookie options to go for?
Cheers!
Clark & D.Fogarty
Already have:
MID:Holman, Kelly, Brayshaw, Banfield
FWD:Ryan, Fritsch, ZGL
What are my best rookie options to go for?
Cheers!
- Nov 30, 2016
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Got much $$?
Barry and Gowers
Marlowe
𝓤𝓷𝓽𝓸𝓾𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮
- Mar 12, 2012
- 29,931
- 53,386
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- Melbourne
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- Gold City Royals
Thereabouts. He was the tenth highest scoring midfielder last year, a mere 1 pgg off of the eight-highest scoring mid. Looks like he'll easily be a top-eight again this year.
Your team looks naked without Titch or Danger.Simpson + O'Meara (would just be the 1 trade, already have O'Meara)
or
Ryan/Shaw + Taranto
or
Bonner + Selwood/Macrae
Team for reference (have highlighted Hibberd and O'Meara as the big two fixes for R3)
Hibberd > Murphy + Omeara > Titch
Gives you another reliable captain option.
- Jul 5, 2017
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- Essendon
Yeah got about $200k spare.
- Mar 20, 2007
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Murphy (60) + Mitchell (130) < Bonner (85) + Macrae/Selwood (115)
In the end I am going to go Hibberd --> Bonner and O'Meara --> Taranto. I reckon the priority in early trades is either
1. Rearranging missed rookies. I am fairly comfortable in my rookies (only one I didnt pick was Barry, but thats no huge loss)
2. Getting on the value picks. Taranto and Bonner are the two best value picks so I am more than happy to bank the 240k. On current form they will outscore O'Meara and Hibberd.
First upgrade on the cards is Christensen --> Mitchell or Danger
For zerrett to avg 110 for the year, he will need to avg 115 for the next 20 rounds. 120 for 115 yearly avg.
Do we have any confidence he can avg 115 - 120 for the rest of this year, with increased tags and a feather touch from another concussion?
Do we have any confidence he can avg 115 - 120 for the rest of this year, with increased tags and a feather touch from another concussion?
Marlowe
𝓤𝓷𝓽𝓸𝓾𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮
- Mar 12, 2012
- 29,931
- 53,386
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- Melbourne
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- Gold City Royals
If you're planning to bring him in cheap, you wouldn't care what his season average winds up being so long as he averages 110 from the moment you bring him in.
- Feb 12, 2010
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- Adelaide
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- Adelaide United, Leeds, Bohemians
If you're looking at trading Merrett in then in order for him to average 110 for you he has to average.......... 110
No, I already have him. Just weighing up scoring potential from here on out.
He will need to go 115 until the end of the season for his 22 game average to be 110.
I am thinking of going sideways to oliver. Pretty risky, but there are a few negatives piling up on zerrett that can cost a lot of points over the season.
Marlowe
𝓤𝓷𝓽𝓸𝓾𝓬𝓱𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮
- Mar 12, 2012
- 29,931
- 53,386
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- Melbourne
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- Gold City Royals
Not worth the trade. Can rot at D8 all year as punishment.
Really highly rated internally and no one else below even close to pushing for his spot in the fwd line. They'll want to pump games into him for his development and I would expect him to play most games this year if he's fit enough.
Still, don't think his max ceiling will be any higher than 60 though in current role, won't make much cash or be much comfort with an E on him.
- Feb 12, 2010
- 4,114
- 7,663
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- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide United, Leeds, Bohemians
Think you just need to cop it with that low score. It's an outlier for a player who typically has a lowish standard deviation. He never goes certifiably huge (150+). Think he'll come in around the 100 average mark for the whole year.
Why does he need to average 110 for the season? Because you paid 109.2 for him?
Only about a fifth of mids in that price range return averages equivalent to or better than what they're priced at (i.e. their previous season's average). In truth, about half return 95%+ of their value, and half return less than 95% of their value.
If Merrett goes at 109-110 for the remaining 20 rounds then he will average about 104-105, or roughly 95-96% of his dollar value. Not ideal, but still within that 50th percentile. Effectively you will have overpaid for Merrett by about $28k.
The question is whether you use a trade moving sideways to another premium for the sake of $28k. Would you sideways a rookie to another to generate a further $28k only?
Also, the other premium you're considering is $12.2k dearer than Merrett. So that $28k you're "saving" by trading him is offset by the further $12k you spend to go to the other bloke.
Use a trade for the sake of $16k? LDU will make more than that this week alone, and he's a bust.
The precedent for this scenario was in 2011 when 22-year-old Joel Selwood ($630.5k) got knocked out by Farren Ray in the opening round and scored 24. Slightly different in that he missed Rd 2, but he only missed the one match and was back by Rd 3. As it turns out Selwood ended up averaging 111.5 for the year (95% of his value), which made him the 12th-best mid by average. The player in that price range who started best that year was Marc Murphy, who went 107 and 133 over the first two rounds.
Murphy's 2011 average from Rd 3 on? 117.9
Selwood's 2011 average from Rd 3 on? 117.0
Hold Merrett.
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- Jun 27, 2013
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With ZGL out, might trade him and DPP Sicily into the free forward space, also means I don't have to field 2 forward rookies after this round as defenders are scoring better
So Hibberd out for Simpson and ZGL out for Bonner via Sicily DPP.
Holding Naughton for now, his JS is ok for now, that poo R1 score falls out after this week too, might crawl past 200k in 2-3 weeks. Bench material though.
Fogarty, Higgins and ZGL may be available on the bubble in a few weeks, so perhaps I dump Naughton then via moving Sicily back and look for an early upgrade somewhere up forward say after Ryan's 115 falls out, thinking R5-6 make a move.
So Hibberd out for Simpson and ZGL out for Bonner via Sicily DPP.
Holding Naughton for now, his JS is ok for now, that poo R1 score falls out after this week too, might crawl past 200k in 2-3 weeks. Bench material though.
Fogarty, Higgins and ZGL may be available on the bubble in a few weeks, so perhaps I dump Naughton then via moving Sicily back and look for an early upgrade somewhere up forward say after Ryan's 115 falls out, thinking R5-6 make a move.
Did the same thing as my only trade for the week.
Allows me to emergency loophole J.Garlett's score friday night into Fritch/Ryan if he fails too. Plus like you mentioned we will bleed points playing 2 forward rookies so Bonner can take Sicilys spot in the backline at D3 for me.
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