Round 3 Trades

[bUCKET__]

Thinking the same with Bonner for ZGL.

Still only 50-50 on his prospects for avg 80 til the bye: Pittard coming back is a real worry. But Port draw looks good happy to burn a luxury trade this time of year to improve chance of cash generation.

 

[DERIBERATE]

Why does he need to average 110 for the season? Because you paid 109.2 for him?

Only about a fifth of mids in that price range return averages equivalent to or better than what they're priced at (i.e. their previous season's average). In truth, about half return 95%+ of their value, and half return less than 95% of their value.

If Merrett goes at 109-110 for the remaining 20 rounds then he will average about 104-105, or roughly 95-96% of his dollar value. Not ideal, but still within that 50th percentile. Effectively you will have overpaid for Merrett by about $28k.

The question is whether you use a trade moving sideways to another premium for the sake of $28k. Would you sideways a rookie to another to generate a further $28k only?

Also, the other premium you're considering is $12.2k dearer than Merrett. So that $28k you're "saving" by trading him is offset by the further $12k you spend to go to the other bloke.

Use a trade for the sake of $16k? LDU will make more than that this week alone, and he's a bust.

The precedent for this scenario was in 2011 when 22-year-old Joel Selwood ($630.5k) got knocked out by Farren Ray in the opening round and scored 24. Slightly different in that he missed Rd 2, but he only missed the one match and was back by Rd 3. As it turns out Selwood ended up averaging 111.5 for the year (95% of his value), which made him the 12th-best mid by average. The player in that price range who started best that year was Marc Murphy, who went 107 and 133 over the first two rounds.

Murphy's 2011 average from Rd 3 on? 117.9
Selwood's 2011 average from Rd 3 on? 117.0

Hold Merrett.

Listen to this guy

 

[Big Bryza]

FFS Sicily and Greene. Will hold though as Sic will be top 6 defender and likewise Greene up forward.

 

[benji21]

Hey Guys,
Any thoughts on this?

Hibberd to Murphy + Clark to Titch

Or

Clark to CEY, Lobb to Taranto

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

Well I have finally found my way back again for the first time of the new season. Hope all the regulars and campaigners on here are able to give me some much needed advice because my side needs it urgently.

Right so at the moment have Crouch (Inj) , Beams , Byrne (Inj) , Rioli, Sicily (Susp) and Giles-Langdon (Inj) all causing me huge headaches... Also carrying Armitage but not disastrous for the $$$ outlay.

Looking to move Beams definitely and either Byrne or Giles-Langdon out but what to replace with is the headache.

Current side is:

R. Laird, S. Savage, H. Shaw, C. Byrne, S. Murray, T. Doedee (A. Naughton, L. Murphy)

T. Mitchell, M. Crouch, N. Fyfe, D. Beams, P. Cripps, D. Armitage, J. Finlayson, T. Kelly (A. Brayshaw, B. Banfield, N. Holman)

S. Martin, M. Gawn (T. English)

L. Franklin, D. Smith, C. Petracca, J. Sicily, C. Rioli, B. Fritsch (J. Garlett, Z. Giles-Langdon)

$171,700 remaining.

There are three options

Grab the two remaining rookies that are popular (Barry & Ryan) with an eye to grab Danger & Martin next week! Are either of these guys must haves?

Grab one rookie and a Premo or an inform Mid Pricer this week (Simpson, Martin, Coniglio, etc) but less funds for future upgrades)

Grab two Premos (Coniglio & Gray for example) but burn virtually all salary in doing so?

Anyone got any advice for my situation? Reckon I am about 4 weeks away from going full Judd-Magic and trading my a*** off to put myself out of my suffering and misery.

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

Hey Guys,
Any thoughts on this?

Hibberd to Murphy + Clark to Titch

Or

Clark to CEY, Lobb to Taranto

Definitely would go the 1st option, Hibberd's role at the moment has been compromised. He should come good eventually but who knows when that is (anyone remember Heath Shaw last season!) Mitchell is looking like clearly being in the top 3 players this season, seems a no-brainer to me.

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

Looking to get any Defender in below 500k (replacing Hibberd)

Right now its a choice of
Heath Shaw + 41k
or
Bonner + 242k

I like the extra cash that Bonner gives, but I don't think he is going to be a keeper.

I think you have just answered your own question, small sample size so nearly impossible to truly know but Shaw's role has reverted back to something similar to 2016 and earlier with the loss of Wilson & Williams. I like what Bonner has produced but unsure if he is capable of sustaining this level of output and can't see him being around the top group of scorers come seasons end (would be impressed if he is).

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

I just fear Menegola will go large this week if I remove him. He's been solid for years now Kelly and Ablett are back and he's just not getting into it.

FFS I don't know

I would personally trade Menegola, can't see him producing big scores unless injuries strike. Good midfielder and tasty option initially as a Forwad but clearly too compromised by his role change.

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

I can, lack of Danger/Simmo makes me a sad panda

Having those guys would be ideal, but your side right now has no real pressing issues that need to be addressed (maybe Sicily to Simpson if you can afford it) but even that is not super necessary. Your side is in a great position so far

 

[Beardown1023]

Being in NSW we get GWS and Sydney's games on free to air regardless of whether they are FTA games or not.
I've watched both GWS games with keen interest and Taranto has looked the real deal. Sadly at the cost of Kelly going forward a lot which has hurt him thus far. This round gone could've been a shocker if he didn't lay 14 or so tackles. I'd love to sideways Kelly to Dusty but going to trust my gut that his class will shine through still. However I am concerned with Hibberd and plan on trading him to Taranto, with Sicily going to defence. Similar scoring outputs, just different end of the ground and saves me $200k for the Danger/Dusty fund.

Sicily annoyed me no end on Monday and originally was going to just trade him to Taranto, but I looked at his games post-bye last year when he had the role change.
He scored 93, 87, 109, 46, 104, 97, 130, 107, 25, 116 in the final 10 rounds.
The 25 was a shocker against Carlton with 10 clangers and 7 frees against while the 46 was against Geelong who quite obviously target him as shown on Monday. The consistency otherwise is good and for 400k holds good value so those looking at trading him, I recommend a hold.

Hey mate what are your thoughts on Taranto with Hopper coming in for Scully. Do they rotate? Noticed he is named in the forward pocket. I traded him in for Sicily a few days ago, which is obviously sideways, and just reversed it to get Sicily back in. Griffen back soon too. Is Taranto worth trading in do you think? I don't have the option of putting Sicily into defense and want to keep him forward anyhow. I very rarely sideways trade and I'm really stuck on this one!

 

[gutsroy]

They just use one magic number for initial prices, and a second one for orice changes. And to make it more confusing the price change one drops during the year, which is why you see people get super cheap towards the end.

I dont know what this "finals" is of which you speak. Real men play for overall rank. Thats why im in the top 50






k.

Yeah, basically (as I understand it, and simplified) the overall salary pool stays essentially the same.
The starting MN was around 5.4k last year, 5.5 this.
The MN fluctuates during the season, the main driver being the price rises of the rooms and discounted blokes. The usual range is 4.9-5.1k, as you say, and it converges toward a stable value.
Where the rooks and cheapies get off to a flyer amd appreciate rapidly, which Kelly and co. look like doing, the MN drops lower. Which I reckon they're already predicting given Danger's BE on SC site, I.e. bigger price drops for premos early doors.
The 5.4 (or 5.5) MN isn't the one to use in-season, as you say. Marlowe's heuristic is good and easy to use.
Congratulations to anyone who got this far, I barely made it myself and feel like a w***er.
Time for a beer.
Edit: On the BEs, they're proof the MN does vary, because there have been cases where a bloke hits the BE exactly and, even allowing for rounding effects, shifts in price. The defence rests, your honour.

 

[go you pups]

Did the same thing as my only trade for the week.

Allows me to emergency loophole J.Garlett's score friday night into Fritch/Ryan if he fails too. Plus like you mentioned we will bleed points playing 2 forward rookies so Bonner can take Sicilys spot in the backline at D3 for me.

Yep it sounds a plan, Sicily becomes my late loophole option for this week with Frampton (my R3 loopholer) locked in Saturday arvo providing Garlett scores ok/the VC makes up for an average Garlett score.

Thinking Fyfe VC into Dusty. Don't think Cripps can go 140+ yet regularly, seems to be a solid 105-120. Laird and Simpson probably around the same 100-120 range. Coniglio could work too though.

So yeah, hopefully when I move Sicily back into defence in a few weeks I play the BEs right and grab a nice early upgrade at R5-6, though spending all my leftover starting funds on Bonner may prove to be tricky after two price rises + just the 2 trades, I might need 3 weeks of rises between the 2 trades. Most likely looking at a forward, but perhaps a defender too if someone slows down back there.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

Option 2, easily.

Not sure about the zgl to ryan. Sure he dropped a 110 but the week before he dropped a 30. Take advantage of looping the best fwd rookie in your forward line. For instance i have garlett, venables and fritsch.
Put emergency on garlett on friday, he does well put langdon on field, he stinks swap langdon out for venables or fritsch.
Langon will come back in a month and start making you bank.
Ez pz

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

If you think Bonner is a keeper, option 1.

Thanks guys .
A lot will depend on whether Venables makes the final cut, me thinks.

 

[LegendLewis]

Been thinking all week of going Brayshaw to Holman and either ZGL to Ryan or ZGL to Fisher
but now thinking Brayshaw to Holman and Kelly to Titch.
have $124,400 in the kitty and any help would be appreciated

 

[Andrew Birch]

Been thinking all week of going Brayshaw to Holman and either ZGL to Ryan or ZGL to Fisher
but now thinking Brayshaw to Holman and Kelly to Titch.
have $124,400 in the kitty and any help would be appreciated

View attachment 479424

I would double downgrade this week
JOM > Holman
Cyril > L Ryan
which would leave you 537k to upgrade Brayshaw to any one of Danger/Dusty/Titch next week.

 

[Judd_Magic]

Been thinking all week of going Brayshaw to Holman and either ZGL to Ryan or ZGL to Fisher
but now thinking Brayshaw to Holman and Kelly to Titch.
have $124,400 in the kitty and any help would be appreciated

View attachment 479424

WTF would you get rid of Josh Kelly for?

Just give me your trade instead if you are going to do that!

 

[Smitch]

Is Hibberd to Simpson a bad trade?
Backline is in photo with sicly down fwd

 

[Gameova_]

Hey guys, what trades would you guys recommend? I was thinking of barrass or hurn for Robertson and Adams for cogniglio

 

[Biggie]

What’s the chances of venables losing his spot west coast fans... if he does men’s a donut

No chance

 

[LegendLewis]

WTF would you get rid of Josh Kelly for?

Just give me your trade instead if you are going to do that!

yeah completely realise it sounds stoopid!
reasons for stoopidity are
nah got nothing...just want titch really

 

[MowShow]

Is Hibberd to Simpson too reactionary? 0 trades used so far so thinking it could be worth it.. Might just stick with Hibberd though..

Also have ZGL who is looking like a must trade.. Already have Garlett, Fritsch, Ryan.. Guessing the best option available is Venables?

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Been thinking all week of going Brayshaw to Holman and either ZGL to Ryan or ZGL to Fisher
but now thinking Brayshaw to Holman and Kelly to Titch.
have $124,400 in the kitty and any help would be appreciated

View attachment 479424

Not starting with Tich was your problem.. and your a hawks man.. he should have been first picked.

Saying that don’t trade Kelly, double downgrade to the rookies your missing first priority.

 

[GenuineMatchWinner]

Been thinking all week of going Brayshaw to Holman and either ZGL to Ryan or ZGL to Fisher
but now thinking Brayshaw to Holman and Kelly to Titch.
have $124,400 in the kitty and any help would be appreciated

View attachment 479424

Definitely hold Kelly, I understand the desire to chase after Mitchell but offing another Premo who is performing fine and isn't injured seems like a waste.

As has been mentioned, in your situation you should definitely grab Holman who is a clear must have, then trade Rioli either up to a Premo or down to Ryan... because you also have Lobb who is questionable I would avoid another mid pricer personally (ruling out Taranto, Fisher, etc). Cash generation is vital especially early on, so Ryan is your best bet IMO

 

[Son_Of_God29]

Looking to do Single Trade this week


Side-ways

Armitage>Taranto

just give me a yay or nay guys

 

[WaynesWorld19]

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