Hank93
Brownlow Medallist
GWS Giants (5th, 5-2, 117.45%) v Adelaide (4th, 5-2, 123.60%)
Venue: Sydney Showgrounds
When: Saturday, 23 May @ 1:40pm CST (2:10pm EST)
Betting: GWS Giants $1.64 ($1.92 -7.5 points), Adelaide $2.25 ($1.92, +7.5 points).
Injuries:
GWS Giants
Adelaide
It’s fair to say we’ve handled the Giants fairly comfortably in the past. Unbeaten and an average winning margin of 86.6 points per game against an opposition club would have to be an AFL record.
The Giants are a completely different beast this year, currently 5-2, 5th on the ladder with a win against the reigning premiers.
On the weekend they utterly destroyed a pathetic Carlton side in one of the most one sided contests in many years. The 78 point margin flattered the Blues. Some of the statistics are mind blowing.
40 scoring shots to 12, 80 inside 50s to 32. At least Carlton won the clanger count.
Carlton’s heat map even more ugly than the stat sheet. 75% of their possessions in their back half!
I’m not sure if GWS have a weakness. Only inexperience and inconsistency could cost them a finals spot this year.
Patful, Shaw, Haynes and Davis is a solid defensive unit. Patful was such a smart buy in the off season. Easy trade to make, dual best and fairest winner, plenty of experience in an area they lacked.
The midfield is complete. Mumford, Griffen, Shiel, Treloar, Greene, Scully, Coniglio, Whitfield, Hoskin-Elliot, Smith and Ward will dominate the comp for years. They also have Sumner, Pickett, Kelly, Steele, Lamb and Hampton just waiting incase an injury occurs.
Then we get to the forward line. If you had to start an AFL club from scratch, Cameron would be close to the first pick. He had a quiet 2014 after an AA 2013 year, but he’s back to his best. Cameron McCarthy continuing the trend of moppy hair = gun footballer. Showed potential in Round 23 last year, and has so far kicked 17 goals and currently =12th in the coleman. The perfect back up for Jeremy. You’d also have to wonder what Collingwood were thinking not electing to pick James Stewart as a father son. Another mobile, skillful forward. They also have 198cm, 103kg number 1 pick monster that would love to get a better run with injuries. Imagine how imposing the forward targets will be with all 4 firing.
This all sounds a bit scary. I think I’ve just talked myself into picking them.
We’re not going too badly either. With a very even competition, you’d never sneeze at a 5-2 start. However, outside of the first two weeks, we’ve just been going through the motions a bit. A terrible performance against the Dogs followed by a wasteful and inaccurate showdown had us back with the pack. The GC and StK matches have hardly been inspiring, but a wins a win.
We’re a very hard team to place at the moment. So far I’d say we’ve improved, our defensive application and press is clearly a step up from 2014. But poor starts and shocking execution by foot clearly cost us v Port and have prevented us from really finishing off Gold Coast and St Kilda. Four of our five wins have been against sides we defeated in 2014, and the other is Melbourne. We really haven’t been able to get a real gauge as to our change in results from last year. This week will be a really good test to see where we’re at. Away from home against a side flying at the moment with firepower all over the park.
I think it all depends on which GWS turns up. Prior history can be a huge mental barrier for a team or an individual athlete. An average losing margin of 86 points can’t be ignored. The last 2 weeks for GWS have been excellent, but up at Subiaco they got done by 87 points and kicked 4 goals for the game.
I think their midfield group is clearly better than the one we’ll put on the field this week. It might have been an even battle with Rory, Crouch snr and Douglas available, but their depth is incredible. It bats down to 9. We probably stop at Danger and Thommo with a smattering of promising youngsters who were criminally underplayed in 2013-14. Wright, Mackay, VB, Henerson are all B- players at best.
Our defence is exciting and the group will stick together for 10 years. Will it be able to stop Cameron, McCarthy and Stewart? Talia has done exceptionally well in this match up but I think we’ll be up against it if we can’t restrict the supply. Huge task for Lever, Kelly and Dick Cheney on Saturday.
I think our forward line is the best chance of winning on the weekend. Eddie is in career best form, Lynch clearly got a handy record against this mob and the skipper can do anything on his day. Was nice to see our Cameron hit some form last week v the Saints.
If GWS play well and are up to their best I think they’ll get the chocolates, but it’ll be tough ask for them to brush aside 3 horrendous years of history v the Crows. Mental scars and some complacency and we’re more than good enough to take advantage.
Giants by 17
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). Our outs make us vulnerable to any AFL team, let alone one as talented and as up and about as GWS. GWS are rightfully short favourites with the bookies, but our forward line is in awesome form so I think we can manufacture a win.
