Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[McIvor]

How does this accord with your rankings Grasshopper17 - seems to be close IIRC ?

 

[Grasshopper17]

How does this accord with your rankings Grasshopper17 - seems to be close IIRC ?

Yeah this is Max's baby really. He does it on feel basically. He usually makes a good fist of it and explains his rationale reasonably well, but like much human analysis it relies a bit much on inherent biases we all have, often unconsciously.

For example, one time he hinted at massively downgrading Brisbane after we lost to Freo in Perth in 2022, on the basis that "we got completely opened up defensively and the last quarter was an exhibition".

It wasn't until I (gently) pointed out to Max on Twitter that we actually won the last quarter AND won the game on expected score that he toned down his rhetoric in his power rankings and might have kept our ranking the same in the end.

So it's interesting, but as someone with a preference for a more data-driven, scientific method, I don't put too much store in it.

That said, my own method needs a bit of rework I think, as it probably doesn't prioritise current/recent form ahead of early-season form as well as it probably should.

So that is probably something I'll look at in the off season.

 

[Tom14]

Yeah this is Max's baby really. He does it on feel basically. He usually makes a good fist of it and explains his rationale reasonably well, but like much human analysis it relies a bit much on inherent biases we all have, often unconsciously.

For example, one time he hinted at massively downgrading Brisbane after we lost to Freo in Perth in 2022, on the basis that "we got completely opened up defensively and the last quarter was an exhibition".

It wasn't until I (gently) pointed out to Max on Twitter that we actually won the last quarter AND won the game on expected score that he toned down his rhetoric in his power rankings and might have kept our ranking the same in the end.

So it's interesting, but as someone with a preference for a more data-driven, scientific method, I don't put too much store in it.

That said, my own method needs a bit of rework I think, as it probably doesn't prioritise current/recent form ahead of early-season form as well as it probably should.

So that is probably something I'll look at in the off season.

Reckon Max is pretty limited by what he can publish on fox - they like this stuff for engagement, but if he got too into the weeds on advanced metrics it'd be seen as too boring. So as you say its a bit of that stuff, with some feeling and vibes pitched at a more general audience than you/I.

Poro Max already got so much crap from pies supporters by pointing out how lucky they got at times last year.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

 

[martinson]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

Good job we found out before finals.

 

[Tom14]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

Hate to pot Fish, and I know the afl website needs to take a broad focus - but there's no point in this analysis if it's not even going to look at expected scores.

Which I expect would make us look potentially even worse!

 

[Nathan Barley]

Hate to pot Fish, and I know the afl website needs to take a broad focus - but there's no point in this analysis if it's not even going to look at expected scores.

Which I expect would make us look potentially even worse!

Was thinking the same and after the dressing down I received after being negative about the roar deal I decided to just make fun

Of all the stats he has access to the only one he uses is goals scored per shot percentage?

 

[Elixuh]

is there anywhere where you can see a players shots at goal, both where they took the kick and where the ball went?

 

[martinson]

Some misses are more crucial than others in the overall scheme of things. If you miss a soda and they take it down the other end for a goal that's an energy drain . If you manage to keep it in your forward half and get the next one ,not so damaging.

Missing ones right on the bell are likewise draining.

 

[martinson]

You could argue the 2 after the siren ones Collingwood got in the first half of the GF are what won them the game.

I know they deflated me.

 

[M Malice]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

In other news the sky is blue, water is wet and David King is a knob.

 

[Tom14]

is there anywhere where you can see a players shots at goal, both where they took the kick and where the ball went?

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html

 

[Tom14]

Was thinking the same and after the dressing down I received after being negative about the roar deal I decided to just make fun

Of all the stats he has access to the only one he uses is goals scored per shot percentage?

Re-reading the article its so bad that they went with goals scored per shot percantage because poor linc is lumped in with Bez and Dunks:

Of players to have at least 15 shots at goal, Josh Dunkley (27.3 per cent from 22 shots), Jarrod Berry (31.3 per cent from 16 shots) and injured Linc McCarthy (42.1 per cent from 19 shots) have the lowest hit rates.

Per expected score - linc had a positive ratio, scoring more than he would be expected to from where he was shooting from.

Dunks and Bez were predictably our worse two on expected score on a per shot basis, but by far the biggest problem is Charlie who is now 5.5 goals under his expected total. When you have 75 shots and have been that bad, its a big problem.

Also Clug being our second best shot (after Lachie) on an expected score basis is pretty funny.

 

[lionsrules]

You could argue the 2 after the siren ones Collingwood got in the first half of the GF are what won them the game.

I know they deflated me.

If McCarthy slotted his at the 3qtr time buzzer would’ve been the difference

 

[Elixuh]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

it’d be cool to plot something like this but in the AFL context

 

[KissKiss]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

 

[Nathan Barley]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

His purple patch would've inflated those figures. Now that his form has dropped away it seems the goal kicking has followed

 

[Nunez]

We're about to go goal kicking ham on the competition. Accuracy will be ridiculously good.

Elixuh has been working closely with the lads. They are PRIMED.

 

[dlanod]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

He's kicked a few miracles that I can think of but barring this last game he hasn't had too many real shockers since we started winning.

 

[Grasshopper17]

it’d be cool to plot something like this but in the AFL context

Sort of like this?

 

[Grasshopper17]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

He's kicked disproportionately well from long range at stages this season.

 

[Elixuh]

Sort of like this?
View attachment 2087844

Yes, but also where the ball goes after kicked as a dot superimposed on the goals or out of bounds.

 

[Tom14]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

Cam was 12.4 from set shots prior to the GWS game and shanked 2 easy ones in the following 2 weeks

 

[WheeloRatings]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

Elixuh

If you select a player, you can view all the shots that player has taken (2021-) and you can hover to view details of a specific shot. You just can't see where the kick went, other than what the outcome of the shot was (goal, behind, no score).

Also, I'm glad you like the site!

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=1407312

 

[Elixuh]

Elixuh

If you select a player, you can view all the shots that player has taken (2021-) and you can hover to view details of a specific shot. You just can't see where the kick went, other than what the outcome of the shot was (goal, behind, no score).

Also, I'm glad you like the site!

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=1407312

View attachment 2088197

Thank you good sir, it’s an excellent resource