![](https://images.bigfootymedia.com/icons/mobile-bullets/brisbane.png)
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
LIVE: GWS Giants v Brisbane Lions - 7:30PM Sat
Squiggle tips Lions at 65% chance -- What's your tip? -- Team line-ups »
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Semi Finals
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Yeah this is Max's baby really. He does it on feel basically. He usually makes a good fist of it and explains his rationale reasonably well, but like much human analysis it relies a bit much on inherent biases we all have, often unconsciously.
For example, one time he hinted at massively downgrading Brisbane after we lost to Freo in Perth in 2022, on the basis that "we got completely opened up defensively and the last quarter was an exhibition".
It wasn't until I (gently) pointed out to Max on Twitter that we actually won the last quarter AND won the game on expected score that he toned down his rhetoric in his power rankings and might have kept our ranking the same in the end.
So it's interesting, but as someone with a preference for a more data-driven, scientific method, I don't put too much store in it.
That said, my own method needs a bit of rework I think, as it probably doesn't prioritise current/recent form ahead of early-season form as well as it probably should.
So that is probably something I'll look at in the off season.
Good job we found out before finals.Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking
The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984
Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking
The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984
Hate to pot Fish, and I know the afl website needs to take a broad focus - but there's no point in this analysis if it's not even going to look at expected scores.
Which I expect would make us look potentially even worse!
In other news the sky is blue, water is wet and David King is a knob.Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking
The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984
is there anywhere where you can see a players shots at goal, both where they took the kick and where the ball went?
Was thinking the same and after the dressing down I received after being negative about the roar deal I decided to just make fun
Of all the stats he has access to the only one he uses is goals scored per shot percentage?
Of players to have at least 15 shots at goal, Josh Dunkley (27.3 per cent from 22 shots), Jarrod Berry (31.3 per cent from 16 shots) and injured Linc McCarthy (42.1 per cent from 19 shots) have the lowest hit rates.
If McCarthy slotted his at the 3qtr time buzzer would’ve been the differenceYou could argue the 2 after the siren ones Collingwood got in the first half of the GF are what won them the game.
I know they deflated me.
Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.
On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html
View attachment 2087484
I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.
On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html
View attachment 2087484
I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)
He's kicked a few miracles that I can think of but barring this last game he hasn't had too many real shockers since we started winning.I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)
He's kicked disproportionately well from long range at stages this season.I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)
Sort of like this?
View attachment 2087844
I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)
ElixuhStats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.
On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html
View attachment 2087484
Elixuh
If you select a player, you can view all the shots that player has taken (2021-) and you can hover to view details of a specific shot. You just can't see where the kick went, other than what the outcome of the shot was (goal, behind, no score).
Also, I'm glad you like the site!
https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=1407312
View attachment 2088197