Media Season 38 Mobbs Predictor: Okay, I was wrong last season.

[FootyGuy13]

That's right, it's back for the 4th time. You thought I wasn't gonna do this between simulating an Olympics and starting a qricket team? Of course not, there's a prediction I've got to get horribly wrong. Season 38 is getting close to the finals now and there's no better way to show that than to pretend like I know how the Best-on-Ground system works.

So, usually how this works is that I run every game through my own formula to get the 3-2-1 votes, tally up every vote and come back to you guys with a "winner", except last season when that didn't happen. In fact, not only did Tandy not win the Mobbs Medal last season, they weren't even the highest polling Bear on the night. That's not even covering the fact that the person who did win the Mobbs last season wasn't expected to do well in the Predictor at all and that the person who won was also my teammate. If only that was the only snub pantskyle got that award season.

Now, in case it's a rookie or a fool that's reading this, this is what the Mobbs Predictor is predicting: The Mobbs Medal is the Sweet Football Association's version of the Brownlow Medal. The sim has an top-secret algorithm to figure out who the best player is in a simulated game and gives out 3 votes to the best player, 2 votes to the second best and 1 vote to 3rd. Throughout the season the best players in theory should be gathering votes consistently and in the end, the player with the most votes is deemed to be the best in the league.

You also have the "Coaches" Vote. Since I use 2 parts in my personal algorithm to figure out who is the best player, I separate the two and see which player the 2 parts like individually. I then put the 2 separate parts through a 5-4-3-2-1 points system, add the tallies together and BOOM: "Coaches" Votes. This system has actually proved to be MORE accurate than the overall Mobbs Predictor considering that pantskyle had a much better finish of 2nd in that system.



Blah, blah, blah, that's a lotta reading, when do we get to boast about being the best? In due time, my friend, in due time.​

 

[Tonga Bob]

If only that was the only snub pantskyle got that award season.​

Never forget #justiceforpants

 

[Braklet]

TL;DR

I'm a rookie AND a fool!

 

[ClarkeM]

I win it this year

 

[FootyBot13]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:


After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:


Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​

 

[GWS Goose]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:
View attachment 2166319

After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:
View attachment 2166321

Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​

I expect I'll fall a little. But good to see the umpires still writing down my name even as a full forward

 

[Headless]

Go moginie!

 

[FootyBot13]

Now we fast forward to round 8. Almost at the half-way mark of the season, majority of teams have had a bye and the Mount Buller Demons, specifically moginie , have gone on a rampage.

Here's the Mobbs Predictor Leaderboard for Round 8:


I thought mogine having a calculated 3 BOGs was being unbelieveable, then it extended past that to 5! 15 votes at only round 6! However, if you know how well the Demons season has been going since Round 6, you know what's happened since.

The big movers in the 4 round jump forward were philreich Pie 4 Life and Drizzy who now all sit within the top 5 of the standings with P4L especially seeing as they are expected to poll votes in every round from 4 to 8. Ocha905 is still in the Top 3, and it'd be hard to catch up with how much moginie is polling, but the well is drying up.

Can the Coaches Votes give us a more clearer picture in exchange?


Despite moginie scoring 49 out of a possible 60 up to Round 6, philreich and Pie 4 Life's more steady run of votes in the 8-6 range in this system means that moginie has nowhere near the commanding lead. Although the only thing that matters is that moginie is ahead.

Ocha905 barely within a game of the lead now but is staying up there, Drizzy rounds out the Top 6 is what is a breakout season for them on sim results and Pamcake1 is managing to keep their name in the discussion to keep the Wonders interested. Will there be a change at the top when we check in at Round 12?


(Actually, I wanna see how many votes this thing will give moginie)​

 

[Braklet]

Let's show an example of how this works by showing the results of the first 4 rounds of Mobbs Predicting:
View attachment 2166319

After both missed out on votes in the first round, both moginie and Ocha905 were calculated to be the best players in their respective games for Rounds 2, 3 and 4. This means they got three lots of 3 votes and are on top with 9 but what stands out about this is the 3-vote lead they have over 3rd, 4th and 5th. TY24 philreich and GWS Goose also had good starts to the season with 6 votes each but the way those 3 got their was different, with Goose having 2 BOGs and TY24 having none.

We now look at the Coaches Votes to see if we can break some ties:
View attachment 2166321

Perfect 10s in Rounds 2 and 3 sees moginie and Ocha905 still share 1st place, but philreich ends up being outright 3rd thanks to a score of 10 in Round 2 himself. TY24 is also within a game of top spot with Pamcake1 and ShaunDuggan jumping GWS Goose in what might show a disceptive 3rd-placing in the Mobbs for him.​

 

[Pamcake1]

Now we fast forward to round 8. Almost at the half-way mark of the season, majority of teams have had a bye and the Mount Buller Demons, specifically moginie , have gone on a rampage.

Here's the Mobbs Predictor Leaderboard for Round 8:
View attachment 2166470

I thought mogine having a calculated 3 BOGs was being unbelieveable, then it extended past that to 5! 15 votes at only round 6! However, if you know how well the Demons season has been going since Round 6, you know what's happened since.

The big movers in the 4 round jump forward were philreich Pie 4 Life and Drizzy who now all sit within the top 5 of the standings with P4L especially seeing as they are expected to poll votes in every round from 4 to 8. Ocha905 is still in the Top 3, and it'd be hard to catch up with how much moginie is polling, but the well is drying up.

Can the Coaches Votes give us a more clearer picture in exchange?
View attachment 2166478

Despite moginie scoring 49 out of a possible 60 up to Round 6, philreich and Pie 4 Life's more steady run of votes in the 8-6 range in this system means that moginie has nowhere near the commanding lead. Although the only thing that matters is that moginie is ahead.

Ocha905 barely within a game of the lead now but is staying up there, Drizzy rounds out the Top 6 is what is a breakout season for them on sim results and Pamcake1 is managing to keep their name in the discussion to keep the Wonders interested. Will there be a change at the top when we check in at Round 12?


(Actually, I wanna see how many votes this thing will give moginie)​

 

[FootyBot13]

We move forward to Round 12 and not only has moginie continued to add to their tally, but has also gotten a 4-vote lead going into the megabye rounds.


The other thing to note here is that we have someone in outright second, even if Pie 4 Life is more than a game behind 1st place. Ocha905 and philreich sit a single vote ahead of the pack that's waiting for one of them to make one false move that will put one or more of Drizzy BRAB or TY24 up the top.


The race for the most Coaches Votes is still close, but that's to be expected:


moginie can only be immediately jumped by phil and P4L, but those 2 can be jumped by a lot more others as BRAB and TY24 catch Ocha905 to be tied at 4th place. The Top 4 pack that's been on top for a few weeks now can still keep their hold on their placings if luck stays on their side. However comma, luck can only hold of talent for so long and we have 6 more rounds to go through.​

 

[FootyBot13]

Round 16, we have 2 games to go, and from Round 11 to Round 16 the Predictor gave TY24 14 votes to have them in the lead!

moginie is only a vote behind the lead, but the fact is that they actually did lose the lead despite the start they had. Fortunetly for moginie, the Hawks had the bye in Round 17 so all they simply have to do is take that advantage. Fortunetly for TY24, it's down to a two-horse race as Pie 4 Life is more than a game behind 2nd and only a vote ahead of the front pack at 4th, 5th and 6th.

The leading margin is even bigger in the Coaches Votes.

Both mogine and P4L need to score this week to have a chance to win this award while East Side have the bye. 47 points for TY24 between Rounds 11 and 16 has made it so only 3 people can win. The likes of Drizzy philreich and fitzroybowiedog are too far behind for them to matter.


Do we reckon that TY24 is too far in front this late in the season, or will it come down to the last match of the Home and Away season?​

 

[TY24]

 

[Headless]

Still on the mogs train!

 

[FootyBot13]

Alright, it's time to reveal who should be the most likely to be the Mobbs Medalist of Season 38. With one round to go, we have 2 options:


Even though TY24 had the bye in Round 17, moginie failed to poll any votes. This is thanks to Scythe94 whose vote stealing has finally gotten them into the Top 3 on the leaderboard, much to the detrament of their teammate.

We also have only 2 options with the coaches votes:


Again, TY24 was a sitting duck and yet still has a massive lead going into the last round. This time it's Pie 4 Life who is the only person who might jump into first place here as moginie is 1 vote outside of the winning range.

With the Hawks easily taking care of the Warriors, it should be an easy victory for TY24 to take both awards. However, in case East Side's demoltion was done without their help, the Demons and Dragons also had wins. There could be an upset here if TY24 didn't show up for the last round. There's only one way to find out and that's for me to finally calculate the final 6 games of the Home-and-Away season.​

 

[TY24]

There could be an upset here if TY24 didn't show up for the last round

 

[moginie]

No surprises. Had a good first half of the season.

 

[Wosh]

Great work FootyBot13

 

[Kilroy]

Great work FootyBot13

 

[Wosh]

View attachment 2183514

It’s not the result, it’s the friends we make along the way.

 

[Kilroy]

It’s not the result, it’s the friends we make along the way.

 

[FootyBot13]

Let's see the results... fitzroybowiedog gets 3 votes to jump up to 3rd followed by cats_09 who gets 2 votes to also be 3rd. Pie 4 Life fails to score any votes in the last round which leaves us with the last 2 games.

We'll do the Demons game first to see if it's relevant and I can see Scythe94 doesn't get any votes while moginie scores 2 votes to jump into 1st place meaning TY24 just has to score to win. Calcuting the Hawks game, TY24 gets...


...you jumped ahead and read the graphic first, didn't you. TY24 gets 2 votes to be the most likely to win the Mobbs Medal in Season 38!


Meanwhile, in the Coaches Votes, Pie 4 Life only recieved 1 vote while both moginie and TY24 racked up 8 in their final games. manicpie and fitzroybowiedog both had 10/10 games to also be worthy of a mention at next week's count.


That's all to write really. I'm sure there's more info to find, if someone asks the right question then definitely, but until then I will see you on Mobbs Night.​

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Let's see the results... fitzroybowiedog gets 3 votes to jump up to 3rd followed by cats_09 who gets 2 votes to also be 3rd. Pie 4 Life fails to score any votes in the last round which leaves us with the last 2 games.

We'll do the Demons game first to see if it's relevant and I can see Scythe94 doesn't get any votes while moginie scores 2 votes to jump into 1st place meaning TY24 just has to score to win. Calcuting the Hawks game, TY24 gets...


...you jumped ahead and read the graphic first, didn't you. TY24 gets 2 votes to be the most likely to win the Mobbs Medal in Season 38!
View attachment 2186626

Meanwhile, in the Coaches Votes, Pie 4 Life only recieved 1 vote while both moginie and TY24 racked up 8 in their final games. manicpie and fitzroybowiedog both had 10/10 games to also be worthy of a mention at next week's count.
View attachment 2186627

That's all to write really. I'm sure there's more info to find, if someone asks the right question then definitely, but until then I will see you on Mobbs Night.​

Goat

 

[moginie]

Let's see the results... fitzroybowiedog gets 3 votes to jump up to 3rd followed by cats_09 who gets 2 votes to also be 3rd. Pie 4 Life fails to score any votes in the last round which leaves us with the last 2 games.

We'll do the Demons game first to see if it's relevant and I can see Scythe94 doesn't get any votes while moginie scores 2 votes to jump into 1st place meaning TY24 just has to score to win. Calcuting the Hawks game, TY24 gets...


...you jumped ahead and read the graphic first, didn't you. TY24 gets 2 votes to be the most likely to win the Mobbs Medal in Season 38!
View attachment 2186626

Meanwhile, in the Coaches Votes, Pie 4 Life only recieved 1 vote while both moginie and TY24 racked up 8 in their final games. manicpie and fitzroybowiedog both had 10/10 games to also be worthy of a mention at next week's count.
View attachment 2186627

That's all to write really. I'm sure there's more info to find, if someone asks the right question then definitely, but until then I will see you on Mobbs Night.​

Yeah, well, I suppose it's possible I get that close.....

 

[TY24]

@TY24 gets 2 votes to be the most likely to win the Mobbs Medal in Season 38!