Discussion St.Kilda vs Western Bulldogs, 2nd AFL Preliminary Final, 18/9/2010

[Banked.]

I'm expecting us to gamble a bit here. Give hall some room and back ourselves to blow them away on the scoreboard.

Nobody wants to see a heavy zoning game.

Ross won't care what people want to see. He's not the type who will change the game plan in a prelim final when it has worked well for us over the last 2 seasons.

 

[Plugger35]

Daniel Cross also likely to be missing through suspension? Im feeling extremely confident with this one, very happy Bulldogs somehow won as would be worried playing Sydney as we always have close matches against them.

Looking at the replay, it looked like high contact to the head so if the MRP are being consistent he should get a week or two. However I've got a feeling they will bend the rules and allow him to get off. The AFL will want the Bulldogs to be as competitive as possible and without Cross you would think they would have no chance.

I'm reasonably confident of beating them whether he plays or not, would obviously be easier without him though.

I'm expecting us to gamble a bit here. Give hall some room and back ourselves to blow them away on the scoreboard.

Nobody wants to see a heavy zoning game.

I doubt that will happen, Hall is the Dogs main avenue to goal at the moment and probably needs to kick a bag to give them a chance. You would think Dawson would take him with Blake, Fisher, Gilbert, Gwilt all helping as the third man up.

The key to stopping him though is to restrict his supply so getting on top in the midfield is crucial. We should have the acendency with Cooney missing, even more so if Cross gets rubbed out. Their only other real danger man is Griffin but you would think he will have Jones wearing him like a glove.

 

[Kildonan]

Last time we met:
(Red = now unavailable)

WESTERN BULLDOGS
B: Jarrod Harbrow, Brian Lake, Dale Morris
HB: Ryan Hargrave, Tom Williams, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Nathan Eagleton, Daniel Cross, Andrejs Everitt
HF: Robert Murphy, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
F: Daniel Giansiracusa, Barry Hall, Jason Akermanis
Foll: Ben Hudson, Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney
Int: Dylan Addison, Jarrad Grant, Shaun Higgins, Jordan Roughead


ST KILDA
B: Jason Blake, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert
HB: Steven Baker, Sam Fisher, Brendon Goddard
C: Farren Ray, Nick Dal Santo, Raphael Clarke
HF: Andrew McQualter, James Gwilt, Adam Schneider
F: David Armitage, Justin Koschitzke, Stephen Milne
Foll: Michael Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
Int: Jack Steven, Jarryn Geary, Clinton Jones, Steven King

Expected teams 2nd AFL Preliminary Final, Saturday 18/09/2010:
(Red = question marks on fitness)

Western Bulldogs
B: Ryan Hargrave, Brian Lake, Easton Wood
HB: Robert Murphy, Tom Williams, Lindsay Gilbee
C: Callan Ward, Matthew Boyd, Liam Picken
HF: Jarrad Grant, Mitch Hahn, Brad Johnson
F: Jarrod Harbrow, Barry Hall, Andrew Hooper
Foll: Ben Hudson, Daniel Cross, Ryan Griffen
I/C: Nathan Eagleton, Daniel Giansiracusa, Dylan Addison, Will Minson

Possible inclusions: Brodie Moles, Josh Hill, Dale Morris

St Kilda
B: Jason Gram, Zac Dawson, Sam Gilbert
HB: Sean Dempster, Sam Fisher, James Gwilt
C: Brendon Goddard, Nick Dal Santo, Farren Ray
HF: Andrew McQualter, Justin Koschitzke, Leigh Montagna
F: Adam Schneider, Nick Riewoldt, Stephen Milne
Foll: Michael Gardiner, Lenny Hayes, Clint Jones
I/C: Ben McEvoy, Jason Blake, Brett Peake, Robert Eddy

Possible inclusions: Steven Baker, Jarryn Geary, David Armitage.

Since last time we met

Western Bulldogs
Ins: Matthew Boyd, Callan Ward, Easton Wood, Will Minson, Liam Picken, Andrew Hooper
Outs: Dale Morris, Jason Akermanis, Adam Cooney, Shaun Higgins, Andrejs Everitt, Jordan Roughead

St Kilda
Ins: Jason Gram, Nick Riewoldt, Ben McEvoy, Brett Peake, Sean Dempster, Robert Eddy
Outs: Steven Baker, Raphael Clarke, David Armitage, Jack Steven, Jarryn Gearry, Steven King

The balance of changes to the teams since we last met does favour us somewhat.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Brothers.

There is no such thing as an easy preliminary final. However if you had a choice of an opponent from Geelong, Collingwood or the Dogs, I think we'd be selecting the Dogs.

The absence of Cooney will allow CJ to take Griffen who is their most damanging midfielder.

The main dangers as far as I see are keeping Hall in check. The other danger I see is Harbrow. He chopped us up earlier in the year and he begins many of the Bulldog thrusts forward. We must make him pay on a turnover and ensure his man is used coming forward to not allow him the luxury of moving forward.

I, like most of you, am and will be incredibly nervous before the game, but let's not be afraid to back our blokes in and show some faith. After watching the Bulldogs last night against the Swans, they are going to be having nightmares in trying to find a matchup for Riewoldt. Good luck to Morris if he comes straight in. 3 weeks off and straight onto Riewoldt first game back, no worries!!!!

Goddard is also another who will pose many problems for the Dogs brains trust.

If we bring our pressure and keep hall and Harbrow under control, we'll be very difficult to beat.

Saturday can't come quick enough!!!!

Unleash Saints Footy.

 

[goodie23]

Two more wins. It's all I ask.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Two more wins. It's all I ask.

I think I could go a year or two without another win...as long as we win our next 8 quarters...

 

[staphy]

Looking at the replay, it looked like high contact to the head so if the MRP are being consistent he should get a week or two. However I've got a feeling they will bend the rules and allow him to get off. The AFL will want the Bulldogs to be as competitive as possible and without Cross you would think they would have no chance.

If you look at the replay he hit him in the shoulder not the head, plus Boyd pushed the Swans player in to Bolton which pushed Bolton off his line. Even if the MRP find him guilty it will be thrown out by the tribunal .

 

[dg102]

Barry kicked 8 against us last time. 8!. Freakin 8!!! Double team, triple team his ass out of the game saints. I want to see Gwilt and Dawson on him and Goddard in front of him at all times. Dont let him breath!! and let Gilbert and Fisher rip up the rest.

Lenny will win this game for us, as he did against Geelong. He's a freakin Legend. GO SAINTS!!! We believe!
This year don't let em even get close!!

 

[Special88]

Barry kicked one last time.... Keys as i see them:
Saints footy needs to be up and running at its absolutely peak. Against Collingwood Bulldogs had the 2nd lowest kicking efficiency in the history of footy. Put them under pressure, tackle like maniacs and they will fumble and turn it over

Send Jonesy to Griffin and curb his influence. Griffin has had a question mark in the past on his performance in big games but no doubt he is their most damaging midfielder. Also in the midfield Hayes and Boyd to go head to head. Their midfield is quite slow with Boyd and Cross. Dal and Montagna and Gram need to spread and run and make them play catch up.

Zac on Barry and Blake on Jarrad Grant. Key there is for Zac to not get into a wrestling match with barry but use his leap and come in late for a spoil... without really good delivery Zac should always have a chance of a spoil. Any chance of a win for them is going to be based around a 5 or 6 goal effort from Hall. I would say keeping him to 3 or under is a win for us. Also whoever plays on Johnson needs to take advantage and push the other way, hurt them going forward and run because he wont hurt us as much going forward. Gia is there other danger, I would send Gilby to him.

I wouldn't expect Morris to come in and go straight to Roo. And i think if Williams goes to him that is perfect for us. Tom does not have the engine to run with him and i could see Roo taking plenty of marks up the ground leaving space for Kosi to lead. Kosi needs to have space to lead into with some good delivery because i believe one on one Lake would kill us. Kosi is going to have a big role in making Lake accountable and trying to bag a few. McQualter needs to make himself busy to with Eddy applying forward pressure but Mini will have the defensive forward role on Harbrow. He is crucial to them and A Mac needs to keep him honest.

Those are the keys as I see it, and i think we should win, however we can not get complacent at any stage. Be hungry and go for the kill!

 

[MrDOK]

Barry kicked one last time.... Keys as i see them:
Saints footy needs to be up and running at its absolutely peak. Against Collingwood Bulldogs had the 2nd lowest kicking efficiency in the history of footy. Put them under pressure, tackle like maniacs and they will fumble and turn it over

Send Jonesy to Griffin and curb his influence. Griffin has had a question mark in the past on his performance in big games but no doubt he is their most damaging midfielder. Also in the midfield Hayes and Boyd to go head to head. Their midfield is quite slow with Boyd and Cross. Dal and Montagna and Gram need to spread and run and make them play catch up.

Zac on Barry and Blake on Jarrad Grant. Key there is for Zac to not get into a wrestling match with barry but use his leap and come in late for a spoil... without really good delivery Zac should always have a chance of a spoil. Any chance of a win for them is going to be based around a 5 or 6 goal effort from Hall. I would say keeping him to 3 or under is a win for us. Also whoever plays on Johnson needs to take advantage and push the other way, hurt them going forward and run because he wont hurt us as much going forward. Gia is there other danger, I would send Gilby to him.

I wouldn't expect Morris to come in and go straight to Roo. And i think if Williams goes to him that is perfect for us. Tom does not have the engine to run with him and i could see Roo taking plenty of marks up the ground leaving space for Kosi to lead. Kosi needs to have space to lead into with some good delivery because i believe one on one Lake would kill us. Kosi is going to have a big role in making Lake accountable and trying to bag a few. McQualter needs to make himself busy to with Eddy applying forward pressure but Mini will have the defensive forward role on Harbrow. He is crucial to them and A Mac needs to keep him honest.

Those are the keys as I see it, and i think we should win, however we can not get complacent at any stage. Be hungry and go for the kill!

One thing Griffen doesn't have a question mark over is his performances in finals...he seems to take his footy to the next level in finals footy so no doubt Lyon will send Jones his way given Cooney is out.

I think you will find that if Morris plays, his fitness will be fine. He has been doing plenty of running to keep his fitness up and don't forget he only got injured in round 21...3 weeks ago.

Good luck.

 

[stkildathunda]

One thing Griffen doesn't have a question mark over is his performances in finals...he seems to take his footy to the next level in finals footy so no doubt Lyon will send Jones his way given Cooney is out.

yea i agree, Jones will need to take Griffen as he is in great form past few weeks and can really tear you apart and do damage if close attention isnt paid towards him.

 

[Jean Claude Vas Deferens]

Barry kicked one last time.... Keys as i see them:
Saints footy needs to be up and running at its absolutely peak. Against Collingwood Bulldogs had the 2nd lowest kicking efficiency in the history of footy. Put them under pressure, tackle like maniacs and they will fumble and turn it over

Send Jonesy to Griffin and curb his influence. Griffin has had a question mark in the past on his performance in big games but no doubt he is their most damaging midfielder. Also in the midfield Hayes and Boyd to go head to head. Their midfield is quite slow with Boyd and Cross. Dal and Montagna and Gram need to spread and run and make them play catch up.

Zac on Barry and Blake on Jarrad Grant. Key there is for Zac to not get into a wrestling match with barry but use his leap and come in late for a spoil... without really good delivery Zac should always have a chance of a spoil. Any chance of a win for them is going to be based around a 5 or 6 goal effort from Hall. I would say keeping him to 3 or under is a win for us. Also whoever plays on Johnson needs to take advantage and push the other way, hurt them going forward and run because he wont hurt us as much going forward. Gia is there other danger, I would send Gilby to him.

I wouldn't expect Morris to come in and go straight to Roo. And i think if Williams goes to him that is perfect for us. Tom does not have the engine to run with him and i could see Roo taking plenty of marks up the ground leaving space for Kosi to lead. Kosi needs to have space to lead into with some good delivery because i believe one on one Lake would kill us. Kosi is going to have a big role in making Lake accountable and trying to bag a few. McQualter needs to make himself busy to with Eddy applying forward pressure but Mini will have the defensive forward role on Harbrow. He is crucial to them and A Mac needs to keep him honest.

Those are the keys as I see it, and i think we should win, however we can not get complacent at any stage. Be hungry and go for the kill!

A very well written post. Agree with much of what you've written other than the part I highlighted. Ryan Griffen is an excellent player, but certainly one who has lacked the consistency required to be marked as a genuine A-grader. But one thing that he has done consistently since 2006 is perform well in Finals. His kicking let him down last week, but for a bloke running on one leg, his efforts were huge. He's been a major factor in most of our Finals games in the last four years. (Yeah, yeah, I know we've lost most of 'em! )

Would suprise me if Dale Morris got up. And if he did, I wouldn't like to see him get the job on Roo. Not after a month off. Not with Roo's engine!

 

[MrDOK]

I would think if Morris did end up playing he would most likely only take Roo in the forward 50 and someone else go with him when he is up on the wing. This would allow Morris to conserve his energy, especially given his been out the past few weeks. Plus I would much prefer Roo getting the majority of his possies up the ground.

 

[Special88]

To the dogs supporters... What is Morris' actual injury and is he really a genuine chance? This whole thing about you cant play injured players in finals... Do you think if dogs were in our position and favourites that Morris would play? Or is it more that sort of attitude that you already have several key players out and just need to take the risk of playing him? Him and Lake are just about the the best if not close to the best key defender partnership going around so he is very important for you.... but yer if there is any slight doubt he will get exposed especially if he plays on Roo.

 

[MrDOK]

To the dogs supporters... What is Morris' actual injury and is he really a genuine chance? This whole thing about you cant play injured players in finals... Do you think if dogs were in our position and favourites that Morris would play? Or is it more that sort of attitude that you already have several key players out and just need to take the risk of playing him? Him and Lake are just about the the best if not close to the best key defender partnership going around so he is very important for you.... but yer if there is any slight doubt he will get exposed especially if he plays on Roo.

Good question. He apparently had a fratured vertebrate from Goodes falling on him. They initially said it was a 6 week injury and therefore would rule him out of the finals. However, there have been differing expert medical opinions on how serious his injury is and he is a very good chance to play this week (whether he does is a different question).

If he plays, the Dogs backfield matchups all change for the better. Also, don't forget he played well on Roo in last years prelim with a fractured leg...if he is good to go, he will give 110%.

 

[StFly]

If you look at the replay he hit him in the shoulder not the head, plus Boyd pushed the Swans player in to Bolton which pushed Bolton off his line. Even if the MRP find him guilty it will be thrown out by the tribunal .

There was a rule introduced which caters for the whole pushing into contact (with thanks to Adelaide) so effectively if there is an MRP decision to be made (which I don't believe there is mind you) it would be leveled against one of Cross (the bump) or Boyd (shoving Hannebry I think into Bolton), so it's not really a defence to say that Boyd shoved a bloke to cause Bolton being KO'd.

I would be very wary of playing Morris if he had even minor bruising around the vertebrate, we've seen a few times careers ended because of spinal injuries and it would be a shame if he was deemed fit and injured it further under a tackle, landing from a spoil or trying to exert core strength. It's not his fitness that I'd be concerned about, back injuries inherently lessen the core strength of the individual since it is the base of power, if he's not 100%, as the game goes on will he jump as high? Will he hold his ground? will he continue to throw his body at a contest?

Honestly, I'd say he would, but that he'd regret it and probably shouldn't. Either way, I would expect the dogs medico's to be very diligent in not creating another Caracella.

 

[hayes]

Pretty hard to get suspended in September. You'd have to be close to killing someone to even get a week so I'm expecting Cross to play.

 

[sammm]

i was concerened about playing the bulldogs, especially considering that we won by only a few points this year. but then on saitnsational they mentioned that during that game:
a. no reiwoldt
b. moved zac dawson to the forward line after half time
c. had fisher move to the foward line
and d. it then left the back line in slight dissaray. it was after that game that ross reverted back and had stanley come in.

so i feel slightly better. it still won't be easy but i do feel more confident

 

[HoldenMCaulfield]

This I feel is the key.

Big Koz needs to have an impact..

a) we obviously benefit from his marks/goals
b) means the opposition can't afford to double/triple team on Roo.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

Forecast for Saturday : Partly cloudy. Isolated showers.


If it doesn't rain, Koschitzke and Riewoldt have the chance to decide the game between them. Williams seriously struggled, Lake appears not fully fit and had his fair share of problems and Morris - if he plays - should not be able to run with Riewoldt too long.


If it does rain, we will need to rely on a number of their key midfielders not playing - but it should be a lot closer.


Is it too much to ask for torrential rain Friday night, sunshine all day Saturday and mild and dry conditions Saturday night ?

 

[The Punter]

Who on earth does Williams play on if he does not play on Riewoldt? Except for 2008, Riewoldt has a very good record against the Bulldogs.

Midfield depth is a worry for the Doggies. If Cross is also out, then with Jones on Griffen, Boyd will have to play a lone hand.

Does Dawson even play? Sammy Fish did the job on Hall last time IIRC, and with Baker likely to come in to play on Hooper, someone needs to come out.

Kosi will need to commit to running Lake around for four quarters, but Lake had little effect on the game in last year's finals due to Kosi leading him away from the ball. I'm confident Kosi will have an impact without too many possessions.

Minson v McEvoy. Nuff said.

Mark Fine suggested Sam Gilbert will go to Brad Johnson and run off him. Could be a very long night for Johnson if Gilbert gets away. Gilbert's form is on an upward trend.

Here's what worries me about the Doggies:

1. Dawson on Hall one out. But Dawson is in much better form than in the NAB Cup GF.
2. Gia getting away for a few goals. Sean Dempster looks a likely matchup.
3. Playing both McQualter and Eddy in the same team, if one cannot get a combination of goals/tackles. I still have some love for David Armitage or Jack Steven.

 

[Ricmel]

Doggies at their best can beat us with fast ball movement but they are so far off their best at the moment.

I can't see them turning that form around inside a week and I cannot see the Saints being anything but absolutely pumped to go.

Having said all that, I have the usual nerves but I am more confident about the prelim this year than I was last year.

 

[bisazc887]

Lakes just about on one leg I hear so come on Kossi if he takes you, run him everywhere in the second half especially.

Jones needs to quieten griffin down, as hes been in great form and is the obvious outside player who Boyd will thrive to using without Cooney there.

Worried about Dawson on the big bad man, but he does free up fish etc so worth the risk?

They arent doing much training if at all this week which tells you they are as buggered as they looked, so whilst they are the sort of team that usually play games out i am suspect on their second half potential but i am also a bit worried we dont come in asleep like we did in last years prelim.

I expect our midfield to be much more dominant esp if Jones stops Griffen.

 

[karmafree]

We have learn t from falling asleep at last years preliminary final, this is what is called experience, and I expect Lyon and the players to be totally focused at the start of the game. It should be effectively over by half time, and an enjoyable evening from then on in.

Jones bins Grifffin
Kosi bakes Lake
Zac balls Hall
Mac Qualter slays Hargrave
Nick skins Williams.

I have tried to get all frothy over this week, but can't. I am not being arrogant but for the life of me I can't see the Doggies getting up.Just too many injuries there, and we all know the effect of that come finals. I would be all sweaty and lathery if I was a Cats or Filth supporter, I wouldn't have a clue who is going to win that one. Just hope it is totally physical and goes down to the wire.

 

[Pumbi]

Midfield Match Ups could be a huge key because the Bulldogs are simply missing personel that can be rotated through the midfield.

- Hayes will go head to head with Boyd. Both will get a fair bit of the ball and I think this will work to our favour.
- Picken will go to Dal you would think. I have faith in Dal Santo, but Picken is a very honest player.
-Jones will take Griffen, and I think if he does his usual job, Griffen will not have the same effect on games as he has had the last two finals.

Beyond that, the Bulldogs have Ward, Cross (If he plays he becomes important but I don't want to speculate yet) and then a bunch of part timers in Giansiracusa, Addison etc.

St Kilda has an immediate advantage: Two elite midfielders in Goddard and Montagna. Add to that list you have Ray, Schneider, Milne, McQualter and Eddy who can be rotated to a certain degree.

Collingwood's midfield rotation was vital in their QF smashing. Swan, Pendlebury, Didak, Ball, Johnson, Thomas, Blair, Beams and Sidebottom was all too much for the tiring Bulldogs midfield.

 

[Plugger35]

We have learn t from falling asleep at last years preliminary final, this is what is called experience, and I expect Lyon and the players to be totally focused at the start of the game. It should be effectively over by half time, and an enjoyable evening from then on in.

Jones bins Grifffin
Kosi bakes Lake
Zac balls Hall
Mac Qualter slays Hargrave
Nick skins Williams.

I have tried to get all frothy over this week, but can't. I am not being arrogant but for the life of me I can't see the Doggies getting up.Just too many injuries there, and we all know the effect of that come finals. I would be all sweaty and lathery if I was a Cats or Filth supporter, I wouldn't have a clue who is going to win that one. Just hope it is totally physical and goes down to the wire.

I hope it's that easy. My only concern is if we start slowly and the Dogs get the jump on us and get an early lead, a bit of panic might then set in with us trying to play catch up. We will be the fresher team though, with greater midfield depth and so should be able to wear them down as the game goes on and get on top.

Hopefully we come out breathing fire in the first quarter like we did in the QF, set up a good early lead and never get close to being headed, will make it a loss less stressful. Really don't want it to turn into a tight scrap like last year, way too stressful even though it's always great when you get up in a tight one. Give me an easy, dull prelim win anyday.