Stability and performance

[JimmyR20]

Wrote this and shared on social media- sharing here in case it is interesting to the forum.


In the world of #AFL, team performance is influenced by various factors, including strategy, player form, and injuries. One intriguing aspect worth exploring is the correlation between the number of players used by a team throughout the season and their position on the ladder. This post delves into this relationship and identifies teams that overachieve or underachieve despite the observed trends.

Analysis of Player Usage and Ladder Rankings

Analysis of the data from the 2024 AFL season, ranking teams by the number of players used (from least to most) and their corresponding ladder positions.

Here's the data:
| Club | Players Used Rank | Ladder Rank |
|-------------|-------------------|-------------|
| Sydney | 1 | 1 |
| Essendon | 2 | 10 |
| GWS | 3 | 5 |
| Fremantle | 4 | 3 |
| Hawthorn | 5 | 9 |
| Port | 6 | 7 |
| Carlton | 7 | 4 |
| Geelong | 8 | 6 |
| Bulldogs | 9 | 8 |
| Melbourne | 10 | 11 |
| Brisbane | 11 | 2 |
| Collingwood | 12 | 12 |
| Gold Coast | 13 | 13 |
| St Kilda | 14 | 14 |
| West Coast | 15 | 16 |
| Adelaide | 16 | 15 |
| North | 17 | 17 |
| Richmond | 18 | 18 |

Using this data, the calculated correlation coefficient is 0.81, indicating a strong positive correlation. This suggests that teams using fewer players generally perform better on the ladder.

Key Insights

1. Strong Positive Correlation: The high positive correlation (0.81) reveals that teams with more stable and consistent line-ups tend to achieve higher rankings on the ladder.

This consistency likely contributes to better team cohesion and overall performance.

2. Top Performers: Teams such as Sydney and Fremantle, which have used fewer players, are among the top performers. Their stability in player selection appears to be a significant factor in their success.

3. Bottom Teams: On the flip side, teams like North, Richmond, and West Coast, which have used more players, occupy the lower rungs of the ladder. This could be attributed to factors such as injuries, inconsistent form, or strategic rotations leading to less stable team performance.


Despite the strong correlation, there are notable exceptions:

Overachievers
Brisbane (11th in players used, 2nd on ladder): Despite using more players than many other top teams, Brisbane's strong ladder position indicates effective management and depth in their squad.


Underachievers
*Essendon (2nd in players used, 10th on ladder): Despite using relatively few players, Essendon’s mid-table finish points to potential issues beyond player consistency, such as injuries to key players or strategic challenges.

Hawthorn (5th in players used, 9th on ladder)*: Similarly, Hawthorn’s performance indicates that factors other than player usage, such as overall team performance and strategy, play a critical role.

Conclusion
This analysis highlights the significant impact of player consistency and injuries on AFL team performance, with a strong correlation suggesting that stable line-ups often lead to better results.

Exceptions to the trend could be an indicator of clubs to keep an eye on for potential rapid improvement or decline year on year.


Talking points
1. Outliers
2. Strong correlation post 10th on players used
3. Injury data would be helpful for why clubs are using more players however the reported data is unreliable

 

[The Feeder Club]

Brad Scott is stubborn and keeps picking the same plodders is what I take out of this

 

[g_TRAIN]

Good post.

Would be interesting to also look at relative player availability as well because good performing teams are less likely to make changes to the 22 unless forced where as poor performing teams may change the lineup more frequently for reasons other than injury.

 

[JimmyR20]

No doubt there is an element of this.

The original post highlights correlation not causation. It is just as likely results dictate the amount of player changes (coaches choose to make more or less changes based on results) as it is player changes dictate results. (when changes are forced)

It would be amazing to have reliable injury data but this isn't readily available as clubs don't always accurately disclose the injuries they are dealing with.

For this reason, the most interesting insight I can see in the data is the outliers. That and the strong correlation from 10 down on the players used list.
Brisbane performing despite large numbers of players used
Essendon not despite few players used
I'd argue this is an indicator of how strong Brisbane is and highlights the challenges ahead of the Bombers.