Tas Tasmanian Election 2021

[Father Jack]

Minority government would be fine, it would merely mean that the dominant party wouldn't have it all their own way, and that's rarely a bad thing.

 

[random260]

Minority government would be fine, it would merely mean that the dominant party wouldn't have it all their own way, and that's rarely a bad thing.

**** minority with the greens + anyone like zali. Minority witb people like lambie is perfect

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Liberal voters would likely preference the independent in Braddon ahead of Labor I would think? That probably gives him a likely shot of winning the 5th seat ahead of Labor.

1.56 quotas doesn't look promising for them, especially if Green preferences aren't breaking as reliably.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Dammit. Not a prayer of a result tonight. Not that you typically expect that in Tassie.

We're going to have 12 libs, 8 labs, 2 greens & 1 independent confirmed (we don't know which one). Labor are faves over the Greens for the 5th seat in Bass, which would take them to 9.

So it'll be decided by that 5th seat in Clarke, but I'm not at all seeing what Antony is seeing in thinking that it's between a 2nd independent and a 2nd lib (which is the 13th seat.) It's still a genuine 4-way contest here between the 3 parties and 1 of 2 independents.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Minority government would be fine, it would merely mean that the dominant party wouldn't have it all their own way, and that's rarely a bad thing.

They can't govern in minority if Hickey is the independent in Clark. And while not professing to be an expert on Kristie Johnson, it doesn't seem like they could count on her for support and supply either.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Liberal voters would likely preference the independent in Braddon ahead of Labor I would think? That probably gives him a likely shot of winning the 5th seat ahead of Labor.

1.56 quotas doesn't look promising for them, especially if Green preferences aren't breaking as reliably.

Nah, not Garland, I don't see Libs preferencing him.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Dammit. Not a prayer of a result tonight. Not that you typically expect that in Tassie.

We're going to have 12 libs, 8 labs, 2 greens & 1 independent confirmed (we don't know which one). Labor are faves over the Greens for the 5th seat in Bass, which would take them to 9.

So it'll be decided by that 5th seat in Clarke, but I'm not at all seeing what Antony is seeing in thinking that it's between a 2nd independent and a 2nd lib (which is the 13th seat.) It's still a genuine 4-way contest here between the 3 parties and 1 of 2 independents.

Labor's vote looks far too weak to be in the race. Unless the outstanding booths are in their territory?

Johnston sounds like a sympathetic character for the Green/Labor surplus depending on order of exclusion.

At the moment it would need a tight flow of preferences away from the Libs and towards Hickey.

 

[random260]

Wow Clark might give LNP 13th seat. Never expected that. According to Anthony Green.

 

[random260]

1.86 now Anthony Green said anyone >1.82 gives them the seat?

 

[nobbyiscool]

1.86 now Anthony Green said anyone >1.82 gives them the seat?

Yeah, it's high enough now to pretty much call if they retain that primary.

Labor's vote looks far too weak to be in the race. Unless the outstanding booths are in their territory?

Johnston sounds like a sympathetic character for the Green/Labor surplus depending on order of exclusion.

At the moment it would need a tight flow of preferences away from the Libs and towards Hickey.

I was just coming from the perspective of not thinking the Libs would get any preference flow whatsoever, and remembering also that 0.999 of a quota goes into the bin, a quota is 1/6 +1 of the vote.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Just looking at the booths yet to report, the Libs are likely to go backwards again in Clark. I don't see the Hobart CBD or Hobart's very working class northern suburbs preferencing libs in great numbers.

Crazy how quickly stuff changes under this stupid system. After looking about 60/40 likely for a 3/2 Liberal/Labor split in Bass as recently as half an hour ago, it's now looking like 3/1/1.

Edit: the biggest outstanding component of votes now is postal votes though, and I'm not sure we've heard whether they're counting postals tonight?

 

[nobbyiscool]

Still can't figure out how Green is coming to the conclusion that the final Clark seat is between the Libs and the 2nd independent.

Archer's votes will be re-distributed at the same time as O'Connor's, and assuming no vote leakage (which, as McKim said before, Greens are usually "disciplined" about), the Greens votes will consolidate faster through preferencing than the Liberal votes, which continues to bump you up and stop being eliminated.

And given the current Ogilvie/Behrakis split vote, they might suffer from that Hare-Clark absurdity where it actually screws them in the final knockouts (because again, 0.999 of a quota goes in the bin.)

 

[random260]

Still can't figure out how Green is coming to the conclusion that the final Clark seat is between the Libs and the 2nd independent.

Archer's votes will be re-distributed at the same time as O'Connor's, and assuming no vote leakage (which, as McKim said before, Greens are usually "disciplined" about), the Greens votes will consolidate faster through preferencing than the Liberal votes, which continues to bump you up and stop being eliminated.

And given the current Ogilvie/Behrakis split vote, they might suffer from that Hare-Clark absurdity where it actually screws them in the final knockouts (because again, 0.999 of a quota goes in the bin.)

Anthony is really confident did you hear his election?

Man congrats Gutwein on majority!!! 3 terms LNP history.

Correct election call another 4 years guaranteed that can't be taken away

 

[nobbyiscool]

Anthony is really confident did you hear his election?

Man congrats Gutwein on majority!!! 3 terms LNP history.

Correct election call another 4 years guaranteed that can't be taken away

As I listened to Antony Green being SO emphatic, and after checking the numbers myself... I started to see if I could find any live betting on the election - and I don't even gamble any more!

People are going to be loading up on the libs getting 13 - I still think they're 60/40 at best.

 

[random260]

As I listened to Antony Green being SO emphatic, and after checking the numbers myself... I started to see if I could find any live betting on the election - and I don't even gamble any more!

People are going to be loading up on the libs getting 13 - I still think they're 60/40 at best.

60/40 you made it sound like it was more likely to not happen.

 

[random260]

Celebration time. Woohoo we need a speech from scomo. He needs to be in there

 

[nobbyiscool]

60/40 you made it sound like it was more likely to not happen.

I've been saying 50/50 all along, so I've only strengthened it a little. If you could find odds on that 5th seat or on whether it was minority or majority government, they'd be paying much better than 60/40!

 

[nobbyiscool]

They know something we don't about preferencing and/or the unreported booths - White and O'Connor have both given campaign speeches tonight.

 

[Navyblues09]

Great speech by Labor leader, then it’s followed up by this greens garbage.

 

[Elroo]

Celebration time. Woohoo we need a speech from scomo. He needs to be in there

Why? Is a state election suddenly a Commonwealth responsibility?

#peanut
#clueless

 

[random260]

Great speech by Labor leader, then it’s followed up by this greens garbage.

Holy **** she's still talking

 

[Navyblues09]

Holy fu** she's still talking

I don’t think she realises the campaign is over.

 

[BobbyMorri]

I don’t think she realises the campaign is over.

showcases the reason why both major parties wish to stay well away from them. people on the mainland don't understand why having a majority is such a big thing down here.

There are more anti Greens voters than for Green voters and if you team up with them, you get killed in the next election.

 

[nobbyiscool]

The latest update has the Libs on 1.86 quotas in Clark, so they're definitely in the box seat.

The key though is whether either Archer or O'Connor can get a quota in their own right - my whole theory that Antony Green's confidence is misplaced comes from the likelihood that O'Connor could get a full quota on her own and Archer doesn't. In that situation, the way the redistributions work means the
libs could get 1.8 quotas in the primary and still only end up with 1 seat.

If Archer can get a quota in her own right, or if O'Connor doesn't, it'll be a majority I think.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Someone please tell me that Lib candidate for Windemere isn't the guy from the fishing show...

I could tell you that it isn't, but I would be lying.