Scape Goat The Cam Guthrie Echo Chamber

[Max Milburn]

Sure.

Note, guys like Menegola play one average / poor game and are straight back to the VFL. No chances.

Guthrie on the other hand? Well, the bar is at a completely different level. Completely protected. He has played several worse games this year compared with Menegola's game V the Roos, just gets a free pass every time.

If you compare Guthrie V Menegola statistically, you'll see who has been more effective and valuable to the team. Especially since Menegola has been at the club, Guthrie has been rubbish.

Career averages below... Ohhhhh, poor old Cam.

Cameron Guthrie and Sam Menegola AFL Stats Comparison

Cameron Guthrie and Sam Menegola AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

I wish Guthrie's meters gained was on there, his is pathetic, just embarrassingly pathetic. For a guy who's supposed to be known to break the lines too, etc. Lol.

Let's test that shall we...

Guthrie


Menegola


Pretty similar really. Sam ahead in disposals slightly, Cam ahead in goals, clearances and tackles.

 

[PatrickBateman]

Pretty similar really.

Good comparison. Makes you wonder why he's not afforded the same privilege as Cam doesn't it?

Not Menegola's best year, clearly struggling with his injury (surgery?). Every other year, clearly superior to Guthrie.

 

[Max Milburn]

Good comparison. Makes you wonder why he's not afforded the same privilege as Cam doesn't it?

Not Menegola's best year, clearly struggling with his injury (surgery?). Every other year, clearly superior to Guthrie.

Agree about his injury, had a BOG earlier in the year. 28 disposals against Essendon I think?

 

[CatFan79]

Good comparison. Makes you wonder why he's not afforded the same privilege as Cam doesn't it?

Not Menegola's best year, clearly struggling with his injury (surgery?). Every other year, clearly superior to Guthrie.

...and as expected, Cam's breaking those lines with an outstanding metres gained result...

Cameron Guthrie​

Name​

Sam Menegola​

197.9​

Metres Gained​

279.1​

 

[tomthabuddah1]

In the Carlton thread you call Scooter and Menegola passengers but you're happy with Guthrie which is interesting. I think Midfield is one of our main issues and why Guthrie shouldn't be played there. It's a wasted spot for someone that gets so little of the ball and has no real influence on the game.

This is correct - I, maybe in the minority, think Guth plays a decent role for us. Scooter and Menagola however I do not think are good enough. I hope that is ok. I didnt realise it was one in all in..

 

[Warhorse]

Let's test that shall we...

Guthrie
View attachment 732222

Menegola
View attachment 732225

Pretty similar really. Sam ahead in disposals slightly, Cam ahead in goals, clearances and tackles.

Career averages? Main problem with menegola is he is shocking in finals

 

[OddYears]

Guthrie’s season

 

[OddYears]

And career

 

[Down at K Park]

Below average sums him up perfectly. Seriously how is this guy still in our 22?

 

[OddYears]

Here’s mengolas career averages as opposed to Guthrie’s

 

[Max Milburn]

Here’s mengolas career averages as opposed to Guthrie’s

Yep, his injury sure stuffed his year up.

 

[Landgraft]

Here’s mengolas career averages as opposed to Guthrie’s

Positional rating skews that a bit. Menegola is a mid/fwd on their system, which gives him much higher plaudits than he'd have as a mid.

Still a pretty good effort for such a late starter.

 

[you pick one]

And career

Thanks but that's not news to a lot of us.Guffs a golden child at Geelong the thermos set love him along with the selectors.

 

[Damon_3388]

I've been pretty down on Guthrie in the past, as he seemed to flounder for a couple of years after some earlier promise, but he's shown a fair bit this year.

He seems to have done reasonably well in an inside mid role for a large part of this year, and is a good ball user given his contested possession rate and kick-to-handball ratio (perhaps a little risk-averse though, too):



Factoring in his relatively low time on ground (and the expanded numbers at 85% gametime), he's actually been pretty good.

Guthrie also had a couple of ridiculously poor games (vs. the Bulldogs in Round 16, and vs. the Kangaroos in Round 21) that were clear outliers compared to the rest of his season, which bring his numbers down significantly. Outside of those two games, his numbers look like this:



Again, looking pretty good when you factor in the low gametime.

Even if Tim Kelly leaves Geelong, with guys like Narkle and Parfitt fit, I'm not sure if Guthrie will get the time on the ball with the Cats that he would need to reach his promise in that role, though. It may take a move - Adelaide (if a similar type in Hugh Greenwood leaves), St Kilda (perhaps as part of a Jack Steven deal), Sydney, North Melbourne (part of a Shaun Higgins deal?) or GC could all use him "in the guts" - and some clear definition of his role (no more "utility floater"), along with some more time on ground in general (71.11% this season, 76.58% career - perhaps needs a massive pre-season to upgrade his tank too?) to really take that next step people were expecting from him a few years back. Is contracted for a further two years, so would take a lot of motivation from player and clubs to make a switch happen.

 

[dazbroncos]

I've been pretty down on Guthrie in the past, as he seemed to flounder for a couple of years after some earlier promise, but he's shown a fair bit this year.

He seems to have done reasonably well in an inside mid role for a large part of this year, and is a good ball user given his contested possession rate and kick-to-handball ratio (perhaps a little risk-averse though, too):

View attachment 736648

Factoring in his relatively low time on ground (and the expanded numbers at 85% gametime), he's actually been pretty good.

Guthrie also had a couple of ridiculously poor games (vs. the Bulldogs in Round 16, and vs. the Kangaroos in Round 21) that were clear outliers compared to the rest of his season, which bring his numbers down significantly. Outside of those two games, his numbers look like this:

View attachment 736647

Again, looking pretty good when you factor in the low gametime.

Even if Tim Kelly leaves Geelong, with guys like Narkle and Parfitt fit, I'm not sure if Guthrie will get the time on the ball with the Cats that he would need to reach his promise in that role, though. It may take a move - Adelaide (if a similar type in Hugh Greenwood leaves), St Kilda (perhaps as part of a Jack Steven deal), Sydney, North Melbourne (part of a Shaun Higgins deal?) or GC could all use him "in the guts" - and some clear definition of his role (no more "utility floater"), along with some more time on ground in general (71.11% this season, 76.58% career - perhaps needs a massive pre-season to upgrade his tank too?) to really take that next step people were expecting from him a few years back. Is contracted for a further two years, so would take a lot of motivation from player and clubs to make a switch happen.

good analysis here and interesting work.

Good stuff. And apologies in advance if you get quoted a bunch of times - there are some stout anti Guthrie types here that dont like him or his numbers.
But well presented stuff either way.

GO CAtters

 

[Damon_3388]

Let's test that shall we...

Guthrie
View attachment 732222

Menegola
View attachment 732225

Pretty similar really. Sam ahead in disposals slightly, Cam ahead in goals, clearances and tackles.

Even them both out to 85% gametime, and you get a bit clearer picture:





They seem to be playing similar roles, in different time ratios - Guthrie being an inside mid/half forward say 65/35, with Menegola being the other way around. There's probably room for both in the Cats' side TBH, if you want to time-share the role. If it's kind of filled by another player or two coming back into the midfield (eg. Narkle, Parfitt), or someone else doing it better, then one probably has to dip out, and that appears to have been Menegola.

 

[OddYears]

I've been pretty down on Guthrie in the past, as he seemed to flounder for a couple of years after some earlier promise, but he's shown a fair bit this year.

He seems to have done reasonably well in an inside mid role for a large part of this year, and is a good ball user given his contested possession rate and kick-to-handball ratio (perhaps a little risk-averse though, too):

View attachment 736648

Factoring in his relatively low time on ground (and the expanded numbers at 85% gametime), he's actually been pretty good.

Guthrie also had a couple of ridiculously poor games (vs. the Bulldogs in Round 16, and vs. the Kangaroos in Round 21) that were clear outliers compared to the rest of his season, which bring his numbers down significantly. Outside of those two games, his numbers look like this:

View attachment 736647

Again, looking pretty good when you factor in the low gametime.

Even if Tim Kelly leaves Geelong, with guys like Narkle and Parfitt fit, I'm not sure if Guthrie will get the time on the ball with the Cats that he would need to reach his promise in that role, though. It may take a move - Adelaide (if a similar type in Hugh Greenwood leaves), St Kilda (perhaps as part of a Jack Steven deal), Sydney, North Melbourne (part of a Shaun Higgins deal?) or GC could all use him "in the guts" - and some clear definition of his role (no more "utility floater"), along with some more time on ground in general (71.11% this season, 76.58% career - perhaps needs a massive pre-season to upgrade his tank too?) to really take that next step people were expecting from him a few years back. Is contracted for a further two years, so would take a lot of motivation from player and clubs to make a switch happen.

Yes, moving him to the GC would be great.

 

[jimmy.h]

BOG in a finals win.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Yup was OUTSTANDING tonight.

 

[OddYears]

Credit where credits due. Best game he’s ever played. Haven’t seen him go in hard like that ever. Hope he carry’s that form into the prelim

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Amazing!! His run carry and movement in tight at stoppages was one of the reasons we won.

Shows his true class and what he is capable of

 

[Baudolino]

His best ever game for the club imo. Superb.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

Ralphie the Richmond flog hangs Tom. Fits really neatly. What an utter campaigner. Meanwhile Selwood is thrown to the ground with his head hitting the ground and no mention there...oh, now they are talking about Stewart,

 

[cats_09]

Now to bring it next week

I wonder if there was a change of role for him tonight especially in the absence of Duncan.

At various times Blicavs & Kelly were starting on the wings, or Kelly was starting in the forward line, & I don't recall him spending as much time in the heat of the situation as he has this year.

Danger also didn't seem to be getting as much of the ball as recently either

Guthrie just seemed to be in beast mode tonight - no concerns with playing a negative style or negating role and instead a much more attacking Guthrie. Hope the MC keep him in this role because he looks good playing this style and it's good for the team

 

[David the Cat]

Guthrie superb....