Oh alright then. If you really wanna.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Opinion The flip side to a “hard” early fixture
- Thread starter catempire
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Oh alright then. If you really wanna.
- Sep 18, 2014
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We’ll just have to pick our best side and hope for the best come finals if we meet Collingwood. Round 1 was just both teams making error after error, we won because we were slightly more poised and polished inside 50, but there really wasn’t much between the two, and the Pies can play a lot better than that night.
With our remaining fixture, we should be looking at top 2, would set us up beautifully.
Way to burst my bubble. Until now I always thought my posts had an influence on results.
Not to worry though. I'll take this revelation in my stride.
*stares morosely at ground*
*contemplates life*
*sheds a single tear*
- Mar 11, 2019
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The bye will beat us by 10 gaols and derail our season
I was cleaning up my pvr yesterday ..and it had the last 10 or so minutes of the r2 game v Hawks 2018 on it. It reminded me of a couple of things.
Menzel was playing as well as he had for sometime. Geelong was 20 something down and Ablett and Danger got us up and going to bring it back to deadlevel with 3 to go.. only to Roughy outmark ZG. In that come back Menegola kicked one goal from down town that im not sure many others on our list could. Id also forgotten that Gregson played in that game early on
So I wonder a bit.. just whats similar and what different.. Rohan is playing as well as he had for sometime , Ablett playing well , Is our backline as it will be by years end , Menegola is hardly kicking the ball like that all atm , Gregson gone off the list and replaced with Miers and Dahl..
The side changes come pretty quick. and while I enjoy it ..I think , I hope I never get too far ahead. you quote 2008.. not even then for me.. I can remember the apprehension on the day and I can distinctly remember that the last time I felt angry at the result ..at us doing yet again. I was angry at the players for failing to understand our history and ironically it was from only from then they had a thing about playing Haw.
I can still remember the year before..when the club had its internal meltdown and reset against North but I was far crankier at the week before cause we had again lost to the Hawks when they were no great side. Its perhaps cause of all thsoe earlier years and the failures like the game when we were 60 up and they beat us ..etc...but maybe you need that type of burn to realise what hot means , to know that some weeks its not just roll over and its just another game , there is always next week.
So for give my ramblings YOTC.. maybe it takes history to teach you ..thats why I feel only the dumb start counting chickens with a basket of eggs on the bench. For you it sounds like it was 2008 , for me and the likes of Vdubs years earlier..
In 07 the team was spurred on after the North game , we went on a winning run for the rest of the year with an average winning margin of 45 points yet lost to Port at KP.. so when we faced them in the GF , the week after guys like Tredrae were taking bows to their supporters post the PF win ..I was confident .. yet not so confident in 08.
And thats sort of where I am now ..a bit.
Time will tell if we are REALLY different or its just another year of change. Yes we are look good , have kids looking good , GA playing well etc. We will see when we are playing later in the year if the hard early fixture has paid a benefit and IF we have improved clearances (which I agree we must do) and IF our forwards maintain form (Can Rohan keep going) and if the young guys keep going(Clark is already showing signs of a drop off but Miers looking still good) and if the small guys can maintain the pressure ..well, yada , yada , yada
Not surprising since the AFL have given us 3 bye games this season.They had a segment on The Couch where they had the top 4 easiest fixtures as Collingwood, GWS, Cats and Eagles (I think in that order or perhaps it was GWS and Cats swapped around).
Which is understandable in some ways as we can't play ourselves
- Mar 11, 2019
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Chin up.
But seriously, the point of the thread is getting a little lost. It’s not about complacency or otherwise. It’s about whether having a very soft draw is good or bad for premiership chances.
You are really good with stats CE ... if we had a look at the last 10 years .. do sides that play well in the finals have a tough Aug? Close games etc. or do they have have a "soft" ride. Easy wins etc.
Now when we listen to the club saying that players do not need to play VFL cause they do so much no playing training... these days just how much does a team need hard games to harden and temper them compared to confidence building...
BlakeyNoFlakey
Brownlow Medallist
Yep, I have a poor memory don't I
But my point remains the same. Let's not get ahead of ourselves yet. Long way to go.
catempire
Premium Platinum
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Empirics? Why didn’t I think of that!
Well, here are the last 10 Premiers as a proxy for “sides that play well in finals”:
Now we need a comparison point. Maybe top 4 teams that lost a prelim? It will take me some time to compile (which I don’t have right now).
Thats interesting..although a bit indisticive in outcome. Based on top 4 sides the second part of the year..
I was probably drawn to the last month as much as our hard early draw that is your OP.. I was thinking about all the commentary last year about our last two games .
I look at our Premiership years as a guide..
I find it interesting
the week before finals all years had strong wins 6 goals plus
The second week before the finals.. all three years had tough matches , two of the three involved loses
It makes me think that this years draw is perhaps a good one. Lions at the Gabba , the Carlton at home..
Max Milburn
Norm Smith Medallist
Was it really a "hard" early fixture?
Our percentage is 148.4
Our percentage is 148.4
I never get sick of your ramblings TC.
I think the main difference I see between 2018 and this year is just a far better structure and game plan. And the personnel that we have acquired in the off season have allowed us to play that far more effective system. Hopefully we can maintain it. My feeling is that we need, give or take a few players, a pretty settled current 22 in order to be successful this year. Injuries, as it does in just about every other year, will determine whether we have any chance. But I do believe that IF we have a fit best 22 on the park we can be extremely competitive against the best this year.
Falconx
All Australian
Collingwoods draw:
-Carlton, MCG
-St Kilda, MCG
-Sydney, SCG
-Fremantle, Marvel
-Melbourne, MCG
-BYE
-Dogs, Marvel
-Norf, Marvel
-Hawks, MCG
-West Coast, Perth
-GWS, Sydney
-Richmond, MCG
-Gold Coast, MCG
-Melbourne, MCG
-Adelaide, AO
-Essendon, MCG
Giants draw:
-Hawthorn, MCG
-Carlton, Sydney
-Melbourne, MCG
-Gold Coast, Sydney
-Adelaide, AO
-Norf, Tassie
-BYE
-Essendon, Marvel
-Lions, Sydney
-Richmond, MCG
-Collingwood, Sydney
-Port, AO
-Sydney, Sydney
-Hawthorn, Canberra
-Dogs, Sydney
-Gold Coast, QLD
Collingwood will go in favourites for every game this year unless things drastically change. They do have back to back away trips against Eagles and Giants tho along with a trip to Adelaide against the crows. GWS look like they have a slightly harder draw and are usually flakier on the road. 3 games at the G for them too where they have traditionally struggled.
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
I think us, Collingwood and GWS will all finish top 4 but I don't see Collingwood's fixture as that easy. Aside from WCE and GWS away, they also have two games against Melbourne (right now you'd say Pies by 10 goals but Melb may very well improve), Crows away, Hawthorn who always trouble the Pies (Pies are 1-9 against them in their last 10 encounters). They also have Dogs at Marvel and Bombers at the 'G both of whom are capable of beating anyone on their day but are hot and cold...
Could easily see Collingwood losing another 4 games from that list which would give them a 16-6 record.
- May 20, 2014
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Collingwood are good enough to go on a long tear though. I don't think anyone else really is. I'd be disappointed if we didn't finish top 2 from here.
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
On that, here are the last five H&A games for WCE/Collingwood (eventual grand finalists) last season.
WCE:
North Melbourne (non-finalists, loss)
Fremantle (non-finalists, win)
Port Adelaide (non-finalists, win)
Melbourne (finalists, loss)
Brisbane (non-finalists, win)
Collingwood:
Richmond (finalists, loss)
Sydney (finalists, loss)
Brisbane (non-finalists, win)
Port Adelaide (non-finalists, win)
Fremantle (non-finalists, win)
A 3-2 record for each was hardly imposing heading into the finals especially as both had some easy kills in there including bottom 6 teams Fremantle and Brisbane.
What is absolutely of note is that both teams set their positions up early in the season which gave them the luxury of resting players/perhaps not playing with 100% intensity later in the season.
Heading into the last five rounds, Collingwood was 12-5 and WCE was 13-4.
This allowed WCE for example to lose three consecutive games mid-season (v Swans, Bombers, Crows) and still stay top 2 on the ladder.
It allowed Collingwood to lose three from four later in the season (v Swans, Tigers, Swans) and still be safe in the top 4.
Moral of the story is that it's vital to be banking wins now, which we are doing, because if we hit the bye with a 2-3 game buffer over most other teams we will have the ability to rest players and get gametime into players who may not be best 22 right now but may be required later in the season.
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It is vital we maintain a top 2 spot, hopefully the Pies do too.
It will likely be GWS and WCE making up the top 4 and if we have to travel in the finals against either team it will be difficult. Note that the only other Vic side in the top 8 ATM is the Saints (who I don't rate).
Stay top 2 and play a home final against an interstate team in week 1 of finals a likely scenario.
If we can avoid the Pies even better.
So the easy draw is an absolute blessing especially now we have created a virtual 2 game buffer.
We maintain our % and not lose too many games we will play home state finals.
This is a huge opportunity for us.
It will likely be GWS and WCE making up the top 4 and if we have to travel in the finals against either team it will be difficult. Note that the only other Vic side in the top 8 ATM is the Saints (who I don't rate).
Stay top 2 and play a home final against an interstate team in week 1 of finals a likely scenario.
If we can avoid the Pies even better.
So the easy draw is an absolute blessing especially now we have created a virtual 2 game buffer.
We maintain our % and not lose too many games we will play home state finals.
This is a huge opportunity for us.
Max Milburn
Norm Smith Medallist
The Roar has done some calculations on fixture strength, and some forecasting based on what has happened so far...
https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/05/...-we-can-trust-with-seven-rounds-in-the-books/
Some extracts...
The Cats have played the fifth most challenging slate of games through the first seven rounds, with an average opponent difficulty of 2.8 points greater than a hypothetically even fixture. That they’ve skated through it with one loss to a fellow premiership contender in the GWS Giants means their season is set.
Even if, at worst, Geelong were to drop four of those, they would end the year with a 17-5 record which, given their one-win buffer and very strong percentage, will almost certainly lock up top spot. I’m no financial advisor, but I’m just saying that if you’re that way inclined, you can lock in a 50 per cent return on investment (assuming no holding costs) betting the Cats for the minor premiership at most outlets.
https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/05/...-we-can-trust-with-seven-rounds-in-the-books/
Some extracts...
The Cats have played the fifth most challenging slate of games through the first seven rounds, with an average opponent difficulty of 2.8 points greater than a hypothetically even fixture. That they’ve skated through it with one loss to a fellow premiership contender in the GWS Giants means their season is set.
Even if, at worst, Geelong were to drop four of those, they would end the year with a 17-5 record which, given their one-win buffer and very strong percentage, will almost certainly lock up top spot. I’m no financial advisor, but I’m just saying that if you’re that way inclined, you can lock in a 50 per cent return on investment (assuming no holding costs) betting the Cats for the minor premiership at most outlets.
Thanks for all the info. And your take on it (bank early wins as a priority) seems very apt.
I also find it intriguing that the two teams only played 3 games combined against finalists from these ten matches at the end of 2018. And they lost all three of those matches.
Limited sample-size, of course. But hardly supportive of the fact that you need lots of games against really quality opposition in the run-in to really aid in your premiership push.
Having said that, we are Geelong. Where we've almost made 'switching off' going into finals games an art form in recent years. So I would have been happier to potentially have a Coll/GWS/WC match-up in the latter rounds, just to hopefully ensure we don't succumb to 'shock and awe' in Q1 of a final again this year.
Still, it is what it is. And I do maintain that the way we are playing our footy in '19 so far looks much more like finals footy (and even MCG finals footy) than what we've seen for some time.
