Opinion The greatest trade in history?

[Count Dooku]

For those not quite sold on our recent trading strategy I thought it worthwhile to look through a slightly different lens. On a 12 month basis we have essentially traded Buddy/Tippett plus a few second round draft picks for Mumford, Lamb and White. By any measure I see this as the greatest trade in history. It surprises me that our club is not receiving more credit for this amazing trade period. Proud to be a small part of this amazing club and so excited about the future. Other clubs dream......we do!

 

[The Dice Man]

Apologies for the intrusion and ban me if you must, but the jury is certainly out and will be for a few years yet. These trades could make your most successful era yet(which you have to agree wouldnt be very hard), but it could set you back a long long time.

 

[Count Dooku]

Success is unknowable in advance. The question is about the quality of the trade and the relative probability of success.

 

[Bonz]

Apologies for the intrusion and ban me if you must, but the jury is certainly out and will be for a few years yet. These trades could make your most successful era yet(which you have to agree wouldnt be very hard), but it could set you back a long long time.

No reason to apologise your bring some valid points onto the board (Some of which are shared by several Swans supporters)

Personally I think that this deal is the perfect definition of high risk to high reward, If it goes right we can be looking at 2 Flags in the 5 or so years... But if it goes wrong no flags in the immediate future and we could be left supporting Buddy's contract for the next 9 years without any success.

Personally though I think it's hard to see us not winning at least one flag with the likes of Mitchell, Parker, Hannebery, Rampe, Johnson, Rohan and Jetta are only going to improve over the next years (And should should offset the decline of Goodes, ROK and Shaw).

Not to mention you would find that most of the Swans fans here have complete faith in our board and especially our departing director Colless who has barely put a foot wrong in his entire AFL administration career, So I doubt he would of decided to recruit Buddy without performing his due diligence.

I would rather be taking this risk and chasing the ultimate success than gradually falling away and attempting a long rebuild like Melbourne or St Kilda.

 

[The Dice Man]

No reason to apologise your bring some valid points onto the board (Some of which are shared by several Swans supporters)

Personally I think that this deal is the perfect definition of high risk to high reward, If it goes right we can be looking at 2 Flags in the 5 or so years... But if it goes wrong no flags in the immediate future and we could be left supporting Buddy's contract for the next 9 years without any success.

Personally though I think it's hard to see us not winning at least one flag with the likes of Mitchell, Parker, Hannebery, Rampe, Johnson, Rohan and Jetta are only going to improve over the next years (And should should offset the decline of Goodes, ROK and Shaw).

Not to mention you would find that most of the Swans fans here have complete faith in our board and especially our departing director Colless who has barely put a foot wrong in his entire AFL administration career, So I doubt he would of decided to recruit Buddy without performing his due diligence.

I would rather be taking this risk and chasing the ultimate success than gradually falling away and attempting a long rebuild like Melbourne or St Kilda.

Thank you.

 

[Swandwagonner]

The question is what would most clubs give up to have Franklin and Tippett. Most would give up plenty, and for some it would not be worth the cost.

In that regard, we have been lucky because we have been able to do the deal due to the age profile of the club. Losing Marty, Morton and Jude to retirement, trading Mummy, White, Lamb and delisting Brown has freed up the cap and list space to achieve two goals: to bring in Franklin and to recruit a number of youngsters to begin their development with the Swans.

It is a deal that only occurs when all the ducks line up as they have for us at this point in time. It could never have been done in 2006/2007 if for example, we wanted to try and match the Carlton deal and lure Judd across from West Coast. Would never have been feasible in the way this deal is.

 

[lock33]

WOW, the greatest trade in history?
Thread title doesn't even make sense, why is Tippett even mentioned like it was one trade?
I agree with the Richmond supporter who was straight onto it like a blowfly, actually I found that bit amusing geez this deal has ruffled some feathers from opposition supporters, I have a feeling that was the OP's intent, if so, well played.

 

[M F JONES]

Sadly the greatest trade ever must go to Essendon...N.Fields to South for T & N Daniher and about the next 25 generations of Danihers!! The gift that kept bloody giving!!!

 

[Swandwagonner]

Sadly the greatest trade ever must go to Essendon...N.Fields to South for T & N Daniher and about the next 25 generations of Danihers!! The gift that kept bloody giving!!!

Or perhaps the deal that saw Longmire and Carey drafted to North (away from the Swans) for a transfer payment of $10,000. They had wanted Horse and Carey was thrown in as a bonus. And what a bonus he turned out to be.

Although if he had played at Sydney, many of our players of his era would have had to leave their wives.

 

[mtooler]

We secured Tippet in isolation. Its more like Mummy and White and Lamb and Armstrong for an eventually 40 year old anchor Buddy, pick 35, pick 48 and a used whoopy cushion. I am concerned about the back half of Buddy's 20 year deal to be honest concerning player retention.

 

[Punts]

We secured Tippet in isolation. Its more like Mummy and White and Lamb and Armstrong for an eventually 40 year old anchor Buddy, pick 35, pick 48 and a used whoopy cushion. I am concerned about the back half of Buddy's 20 year deal to be honest concerning player retention.

I agree mate I to get worried about player retention but then I sit back and think the Club has worked on this for 12 months , it has not just happened over night and like us player retention would have been first thing on there minds , the Club and retention of future stars like Parker , Rohan , Mitchell , Hannebery would not be risked at all for 1 player , come on when has this Club ever done wrong by Members , Players etc never, I trust the Club 100% because still to this day they have never done wrong in my books

 

[The King!]

I agree mate I to get worried about player retention but then I sit back and think the Club has worked on this for 12 months , it has not just happened over night and like us player retention would have been first thing on there minds , the Club and retention of future stars like Parker , Rohan , Mitchell , Hannebery would not be risked at all for 1 player , come on when has this Club ever done wrong by Members , Players etc never, I trust the Club 100% because still to this day they have never done wrong in my books

They did have a few woopsies from say 1933-2002 at least

 

[Sydney Bloods]

Why does everyone believe we HAVE to win a flag for this trade to be a success?

For me the success failure of this deal is in supporters, buddy is mainly here for the marketing get bumps on seats and keep them there.

Nobody would argue getting Plugger was anything but genius despite us not winning a flag during his tenure, this is about growing the club off field.

Sure a flag would certainly be awesome, but I think the majority of people have already lost sight of why we bought him.

 

[Swandwagonner]

They did have a few woopsies from say 1933-2002 at least

We have just moved out 1 first round picked player for another. Straight swap. Was probably the club's plan all along.
Out: Lamb (Pick 21, 2010 ND)
In: Franklin (Pick 5, 2004 ND)

 

[Swandwagonner]

get bumps on seats and keep them there.

Nobody would argue getting Plugger was anything but genius despite us not winning a flag during his tenure, this is about growing the club off field.

Ah Plugger. How he put bumps on seats. That point in 1996 to beat the Dons after the siren and put us into the big one. My bump was firmly on the seat watching that game.

 

[AlibiMonday]

For those not quite sold on our recent trading strategy I thought it worthwhile to look through a slightly different lens. On a 12 month basis we have essentially traded Buddy/Tippett plus a few second round draft picks for Mumford, Lamb and White. By any measure I see this as the greatest trade in history. It surprises me that our club is not receiving more credit for this amazing trade period. Proud to be a small part of this amazing club and so excited about the future. Other clubs dream......we do!

I tell you why this trade is bad.

The value of role players in a team is arguably between $250-400Kpa. Anything above that, you're starting to pay for match winners. It's a rough rule of thumb, for each $100K over $400K, you should expect a BOG performance within the year. By this measurement, Tippett would be expected to win us 4 games per year with a BOG performance with a salary of $800K. Goodes is probably on similar figures and expectations. I personally think they're fair assessments. Likewise, Ablett at $1.2M would be expected to accrue 8 BOGs at that salary (again, an arguable accurate assessment).

By using this as an index, over the life of this contract ($1.1Mpa), we're expecting Buddy pull out 6-7 BOG games per year for the next 9 years! Even in his stellar 2008 year, he probably maxed about 8-9 BOG games. We're asking the impossible of him to justify the value of this contract. But that's not his problem, that our club's problem. Because if he can't produce that kind of influence on that money, then we'll all have to come to terms that we cannot either a) afford to recruit or b) retain players that can produce at that level. We simply will not be able to compete at an elite level 4 years from now.

I'm happy for this to be bookmarked and quoted etc, but the raw economics don't and can't stack up unless we have other players willing to play for Sydney hugely under the market rate. I cannot see this being fair, legitimate or saleable as a culture when you've got a guy playing 2-3 cameos at age 30 taking up all the cap.

The trade has been purchased on credit. I hope you're all willing to pay the price in 4 years time. It's going look awesome next year, but lets see where we are and who's had to leave the club in 2018.

 

[Swandwagonner]

I tell you why this trade is bad.

The value of role players in a team is arguably between $250-400Kpa. Anything above that, you're starting to pay for match winners.

Three things:

1. Buddy will hopefully replace Goodes as our match winning marquee player.

2. He is not simply recruited, nor paid for his on field performance. He is a marketing icon for the game in NSW. Why do you think that the AFL wanted to pay him around $4Mill to run around in a side that would still have lost more games than it would have won even with franklin (see also. Ablett at GC)? His role as a membership recruitment agent alone justifies his contract.

3. His performance will live up to the expectations. He is possibly the best player in the league at the moment. He is a freak, and will perform very well on field. Even as an older player with a bung knee, when most other players in the game probably would have subbed out, a certain 32 year old won us a Grand Final in 2012. All games are not equal.

 

[AlibiMonday]

Three things:

1. Buddy will hopefully replace Goodes as our match winning marquee player.

Well of course he will, he will have to. But he'll have to have twice the impact as Goodes for longer. That's an impossible task and the crux of my whole argument.

2. He is not simply recruited, nor paid for his on field performance. He is a marketing icon for the game in NSW. Why do you think that the AFL wanted to pay him around $4Mill to run around in a side that would still have lost more games than it would have won even with franklin (see also. Ablett at GC)? His role as a membership recruitment agent alone justifies his contract.

Yeah - I acknowledge this aspect. But surely the goal is to win premierships, not make money. And if making money wins premierships, what's going to happen when Buddy's 32 and the team's outside the finals. I'm pretty sure membership will be down 10,000 from it's peak.

3. His performance will live up to the expectations. He is possibly the best player in the league at the moment. He is a freak, and will perform very well on field. Even as an older player with a bung knee, when most other players in the game probably would have subbed out, a certain 32 year old won us a Grand Final in 2012. All games are not equal.

Who's expectation will he live up to? I've given a fairly rational argument that his pay per play cannot meet those expectations from an on-field perspective. Buddy's skill set and Goodes's skill set are poles apart. Goodes has endurance, leadership, determination and courage. Buddy's are agility, speed and strength. Buddy's skills will not age as gracefully as Goodes's.

 

[SM]

Success is unknowable in advance. The question is about the quality of the trade and the relative probability of success.

Which trade would that be? The free agent pick up of Buddy, or the PSD pick up of Tippett?

Stupid thread.

 

[Swandwagonner]

Who's expectation will he live up to? I've given a fairly rational argument that his pay per play cannot meet those expectations from an on-field perspective. Buddy's skill set and Goodes's skill set are poles apart. Goodes has endurance, leadership, determination and courage. Buddy's are agility, speed and strength. Buddy's skills will not age as gracefully as Goodes's.

I do not agree with your formula in any case: the game has changed and it is a business as much as it is a competition performed on field.

That said, on field, I would argue that Goodes has a similar skill set to Buddy: agility, speed and cunning. Buddy is rat cunning, can perform amazing feats onfield and like Goodes, he is a champion player. He has performed consistently throughout his career because he is very, very good. He is ranked among the very best players in the league because he is very, VERY good.

I will return to the final point in my last post. Not all games are equal. Goodes is no longer paid as a match winner, and 2013 is a testament to that fact. Going by your formula, how many matches did he win for us in 2013? Goodes earned his salary off field this year, but still has the capacity to have a destructive impact on the field. I have no doubt he will bob up in 2014 and provide some champion performances.

If Buddy can provide us with 4-6 REALLY good years, then his deal will have been worth it, particularly when you factor in the increases to the salary cap that will occur over time. His final years will be paid at a high salary, but in terms of the cap, it will be much less as a percentage than it would be in respect of today's cap.

There is a lot of hand wringing by certain fans over the recruitment of Franklin, but at the end of the day, you have to put faith in our footy department. They have a very good reputation for a reason. This deal is great for our club. It is equivalent to bringing an in form Carey or Ablett to the Swans in their prime, with a team in a position to win already. He dominated at Hawthorn, and I can't wait to see Buddy dominate for our club.

 

[Swandwagonner]

Which trade would that be? The free agent pick up of Buddy, or the PSD pick up of Tippett?

Stupid thread.

Should be: Greatest period of list management in history!

 

[SM]

Should be: Greatest period of list management in history!

Even that's a ****ing joke.

2009 was easily our best off-season list management wise. 2012-13 will haunt us for a long time to come.

 

[Swandwagonner]

Even that's a ******* joke.

2009 was easily our best off-season list management wise. 2012-13 will haunt us for a long time to come.

I don't know about that. Tippet, I'm less than convinced about. But if they even thought they were a chance, Franklin would be on the wish list every club in the AFL. And would they give up what we have? In a heartbeat they would.

Add to that fact we have just won a flag and signed up some very exciting players on long term deals, this is likely to be the start of a very fine period for this club.

The controversy is that we are the first club to have signed a player on this type of deal since the introduction of free agency. This deal will be repeated down the track. And we'll lose champion players to other clubs in this new era. We're heading down the road of the NFL and NBA.

The deal won't haunt us - it will become the catalyst for many other clubs.

 

[Punts]

There is a few people

Even that's a ******* joke.

2009 was easily our best off-season list management wise. 2012-13 will haunt us for a long time to come.

Unless your are apart of the board , which your not how do u no this will cripple us , your going over top a little mate

 

[SM]

I don't know about that. Tippet, I'm less than convinced about. But if they even thought they were a chance, Franklin would be on the wish list every club in the AFL. And would they give up what we have? In a heartbeat they would.

Add to that fact we have just won a flag and signed up some very exciting players on long term deals, this is likely to be the start of a very fine period for this club.

The controversy is that we are the first club to have signed a player on this type of deal since the introduction of free agency. This deal will be repeated down the track. And we'll lose champion players to other clubs in this new era. We're heading down the road of the NFL and NBA.

The deal won't haunt us - it will become the catalyst for many other clubs.

So let's go over 2009:

OUT: Hall, O'Loughlin, Barry, Crouch, Fosdike (all retired)
IN: Seaby, Bradshaw, Mumford, Kennedy, McGlynn, Rohan, Jetta, Reid, TDL, Sumner

And 2013:

OUT: Mumford, Lamb, White, Armstrong (probably), Everitt (probably)
IN: Franklin

Hm.

So in 09 we completely regenerated our ruck, brought in a forward who, when playing, played his role in 2010, and was signed to a measley 3 year contract. We brought in Kennedy, who is now one of our gun midfielders. We brought in McGlynn, 30 goals a season for his past three seasons. Jetta, goes without saying. Reid, goes without saying. Rohan, goes without saying.

In 13 we got rid of our number one ruckman, leaving our ruck division depleted. We got rid of a forward who was just starting to prove his worth. We got rid of a promising young forward. And we're likely to get rid of a utility who was just starting to prove his worth to the team.