List Mgmt. The Kelly and All Draft and Trades Discussion Thread- #freetim #ITSHAPPENING

[EagleEgo]

There's no way in the world Geelong will accept pick 24 for him and nor should they.

Pretty sure he won't nominate for the PSD.
If he did, Freo would snap him up anyway.

Geelong probably will not accept pick 24 at the start. However, we are not in a position to make Geelong happy. Whether they should gain pick value by trading player is Geelong‘s business and is not the WCE‘s business to say "nor they should". Also think a little bit further.
1. Why Freo can but Carlton can‘t?
2. If Kelly wants to nominate WCE as the referred club, can some requirement be set up to ensure only WCE is the only club to pick him up? I am sure " there is will, there is a way". I dont have the preseason draft rule with me, but I think there is a high chance to make it happen with a bit of negotiation with other parties.

 

[Tugga27]

Think a little bit further.
1. Why Freo can but Carlton can‘t?
2. If Kelly wants to nominate WCE as the referred club, can some requirement be set up to ensure only WCE is the only club to pick him up? I am sure " there is will, there is a way". I dont have the preseason draft rule with me, but I think there is a high chance to make it happen with a bit of negotiation with other parties.

Sounds like draft tampering.

Either way, Freo would pick him up for sure.

 

[campaigner___]

Think a little bit further.
1. Why Freo can but Carlton can‘t?
2. If Kelly wants to nominate WCE as the referred club, can some requirement be set up to ensure only WCE is the only club to pick him up? I am sure " there is will, there is a way". I dont have the preseason draft rule with me, but I think there is a high chance to make it happen with a bit of negotiation with other parties.

I know what you're saying. Clubs can have a gentleman's agreement but no way to ensure WC will get him. I'm not even sure clubs can trade for the PSD?

Carlton and co won't bother picking him up as they know he'll leave for WA team anyway.

 

[DJMac]

Think a little bit further.
1. Why Freo can but Carlton can‘t?
2. If Kelly wants to nominate WCE as the referred club, can some requirement be set up to ensure only WCE is the only club to pick him up? I am sure " there is will, there is a way". I dont have the preseason draft rule with me, but I think there is a high chance to make it happen with a bit of negotiation with other parties.

In the 2 cases I recall that players went to the draft when a deal could not be reached bot got through to their preferred club. The players were Ball and Stevens.

There is always a risk of another club jumping in but would they really want to use a high draft pick on a player that has made it very clear does not want to be at their club.

 

[ZergMinion]

If Tim still wants to come to us let's pay fair value given the circumstances and not be babies about it. He may be out of contract now and not on rookie wages, but he's got an extra year of really good exposed form so something in the ballpark of what we were willing to pay last year is still appropriate. If we get him for less than that it won't be much less than that.

 

[EagleEgo]

Sounds like draft tampering.

Either way, Freo would pick him up for sure.

Until we have the rules in front of us, we cant say it is tampering. It is just one of the options to optimise a solution.
If Freo can run this risk, why Carlton can‘t?

 

[Tugga27]

Until we have the rules in front of us, we cant say it is tampering. It is just one of the options.
If Freo can run this risk, why Carlton can‘t?

He won't be going to the PSD, take that to the bank.
If he nominates WC, a deal will get done.

 

[EagleEgo]

He won't be going to the PSD, take that to the bank.
If he nominates WC, a deal will get done.

So Geelong will take pick 24 then.
Geelong will not lose pick value as they pick TK at pick 24 2 years ago.
Peter Bell is not a difficult person to talk to and helping good fellow WA players to come home to WA is a community responsibility of both clubs

 

[Forward Press]

In the 2 cases I recall that players went to the draft when a deal could not be reached bot got through to their preferred club. The players were Ball and Stevens.

There is always a risk of another club jumping in but would they really want to use a high draft pick on a player that has made it very clear does not want to be at their club.

Luke Ball got to Collingwood despite the threat from Melbourne, but Nick Stevens also wanted Collingwood before Carlton swooped.

 

[Tugga27]

So Geelong will take pick 24 then.
Geelong will not lose pick value as they pick TK at pick 24 2 years ago.
Peter Bell is not a difficult person to talk to and helping good fellow WA players to come home to WA is a community responsibility of both clubs

You're living in laa laa land if you think Geelong will take pick 24.

 

[EagleEgo]

You're living in laa laa land if you think Geelong will take pick 24.

Do they have a choice?

 

[Tugga27]

Do they have a choice?

If they don't have a choice, why not offer them pick 77?

Of course they have a choice.

 

[Chris_6678]

WC will offer Pick 13 and next years first and move on quickly. They wont want to drag this out and i dont think Geelong with either as they have some trade they wanna get done also.

 

[06Premiers]

From an outsider's perspective, the fairest trades are those where both parties involved in the trade feel aggrieved.

The Judd trade is the best example.
We felt we should have gotten pick 1, not pick 3. They wanted to keep Kennedy.
In the end neither party got exactly what they wanted, but the deal was done.

The deal for Kelly will be similar to other recent trades (Treloar, Beams, Shiel).
WCE R1 2019 + WCE R1 2020 for Kelly + GEE R2 2020.

That values Kelly at around pick 6. Quite fair to me.

 

[EagleEgo]

If they don't have a choice, why not offer them pick 77?

Of course they have a choice.

Yes, they do have a choice. Take it or leave it.
Of course, their decision will be based on their decision criteria and our decision will based on a different sets of criteria.
Any pick higher than pick 24, Geelong gain a profit, we make a loss. If Geelong is not accepting pick 24, then the next next question is : what are they going to do?
In answering your question "If they don't have a choice, why not offer them pick 77?", pick 77 is at the extreme low end and Geelong can afford to say no. However, Pick 24 reflects Kelly‘s original draft pick value and Geelong can pick a good player with this pick this year.

Please note that buying too high for Kelly as a player has no benefit for you and me as Eagles‘ supporters, though i understand this is only a healthy football forum discussion without inside information of what both the WCE and Geelong planned to do.

Also we cannot afford to give up pick 13 as it enable us to pick up Luke Jackson who will be an elite tall in the next couple of years.

 

[greennick]

Trying to be philosophical about this one in terms of what will he cost.

Like most here I would like only a first and a second involved , but suspect that we will maybe give up this years first and next years first , with something coming back our way.

Generalisation I admit , but most of us on these boards ( oh and I include myself on that list ) get overly enamoured with early draft picks and get emotionally attached to them and consequently don't want to give them up.
Reality is draft picks are a bit of a gamble suit:semoji: ssuit:semoji: and a crap shoot .

So if we need to give up two firsts to get Kelly I can live with that , because , and lets be honest here, our recruiting department hasn't been able to draft us an A grade midfielder since Shuey , but we have traded in Yeo.

If we pick up Kelly we at least know exactly what we are going to get, whereas as young kid may / or may not work out.

Our side is in the hunt for another in the here and now, so whilst it grates me somewhat to have to say this, BUT , we need to add another A grade midfielder , who is capable of having an immediate impact and we need to do it ASAP , Kelly fits that brief .

Just get him and move forward as a list better and stronger into 2020 , having improved in an area of real weakness.

My counterpoint to draft picks being overrated is how many of our first round picks are not best 22? We have a great hit rate in the first round. Even when we miss (Masten), it's not like we miss by as much as others (Morton).

 

[beatlesmith]

From my understanding of the rules, Kelly would have to enter the national draft, rather than the pre-season draft.

That is significant, as it means that teams would have to determine Kelly's value as it relates to an actual draft pick, rather than a meaningless PSD pick.

Would Freo pull the trigger with pick 5/6 if Kelly has nominated West Coast? I doubt it, and I doubt that any other club would burn a first round pick on a player that has no interest being there.

 

[greennick]

Hmmm nice quote.

So Gore and pick 50 basically cancel each other out so 9 and 28. 15 and 22 should do the job based on that.

I thought we had 13?

 

[EagleEgo]

From my understanding of the rules, Kelly would have to enter the national draft, rather than the pre-season draft.

That is significant, as it means that teams would have to determine Kelly's value as it relates to an actual draft pick, rather than a meaningless PSD pick.

Would Freo pull the trigger with pick 5/6 if Kelly has nominated West Coast? I doubt it, and I doubt that any other club would burn a first round pick on a player that has no interest being there.

It would be preseason draft.

AFL pre-season draft - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Capriati]

From my understanding of the rules, Kelly would have to enter the national draft, rather than the pre-season draft.

That is significant, as it means that teams would have to determine Kelly's value as it relates to an actual draft pick, rather than a meaningless PSD pick.

Would Freo pull the trigger with pick 5/6 if Kelly has nominated West Coast? I doubt it, and I doubt that any other club would burn a first round pick on a player that has no interest being there.

But also, does that mean another two years of rookie wages for Kelly if he comes to us through the draft? The guy started his AFL career late, has 3 kids, two of which have/may have special needs and require specialist care.

Can't see it.

I would love to keep 13 and use on one of the WA kids. Sometimes you need to make a choice either one or the other. This might be one of those occasions.

 

[greennick]

They went in different drafts though. If Kelly went into the ND, would anyone take him before pick 13? I think that's our fallback, not the PSD.

Luke Ball got to Collingwood despite the threat from Melbourne, but Nick Stevens also wanted Collingwood before Carlton swooped.

 

[greennick]

It would be preseason draft.

AFL pre-season draft - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Why do you say that? Contracts expire before the ND. Luke Ball went in the ND.

 

[greennick]

But also, does that mean another two years of rookie wages for Kelly if he comes to us through the draft? The guy started his AFL career late, has 3 kids, two of which have/may have special needs and require specialist care.

Can't see it.

I would love to keep 13 and use on one of the WA kids. Sometimes you need to make a choice either one or the other. This might be one of those occasions.

No, he can nominate wages and term. As Luke Ball did.

 

[Capriati]

No, he can nominate wages and term. As Luke Ball did.

That's interesting. Thanks. I still can't see it coming to that.

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Unless we really think we're top 4 again next year I'm pretty uncomfortable with next year's first.

I've said it before but my opinion hasn't changed. Tell Geelong we're happy to give them 14, and if they don't want it we'll use it in the draft because we think he'll be there. Maybe a little sweetener gets the deal done from there but not another first rounder.