I think in all honesty ladder positions need to be viewed in blocks 1-6, 7-12, 13-18.It has indeed been done before. Have a look who was 17th in 2019.
Luck can affect where you fall perhaps by 2 or 3 places.
We've just been through the season from hell. Certainly morale wise we'll be better next year. Statistically we can expect to have an easier draw. That said, we don't have a list deep or talented enough to make a rapid rise up the ladder.
I think in all likelihood without the preseason we had we could have expected to finish somewhere in the lower regions of that 2nd tier. That's about where I think we can expect to finish in 2022 given a reasonable run with luck and injuries.