The Otherworldly Circus - The America Thread

[Next Waiting]

I don’t really know too much about politics, but I do know a lot of how the average American lacks intelligence. They are repeatedly told how they are in the best country in the world and how good everyone is, but they don’t have much accountability.

Trump is an intelligent man, but he doesn’t show a tendency to actually lead. He divides, incites and always points blame elsewhere.

I think he wins for 2 reasons. The above, as he appeals to that average American that doesn’t think for themselves. The amount of Trump supporters are the ones that hated Obama, the best president they have probably ever had.

And deep down, a lot of people won’t vote for a female.

He has a lot of rusted on support, no doubt. My prediction is that he's done enough in the last week to lose the undecideds, alienate immigrant citizens in key states and enrage enough Republican women to successfully shoot himself in the foot. A series of political own goals.

Trump's lost it or Harris has won it. That's for the post game but objectively the result is the same.

 

[King Harold]

I don’t really know too much about politics, but I do know a lot of how the average American lacks intelligence. They are repeatedly told how they are in the best country in the world and how good everyone is, but they don’t have much accountability.

Trump is an intelligent man, but he doesn’t show a tendency to actually lead. He divides, incites and always points blame elsewhere.

I think he wins for 2 reasons. The above, as he appeals to that average American that doesn’t think for themselves. The amount of Trump supporters are the ones that hated Obama, the best president they have probably ever had.

And deep down, a lot of people won’t vote for a female.

Not sure I agree he is an intelligent man.
If you are saying he is gutter rat smart , then you may have a point.
There is more than enough people who have worked closely with him that have confirmed my feelings about him.

But I take your point about voting in a female, and a black one at that.
People on this thread have told me it’s not even an issue.
But racism and misogyny are still rife in the US.

Saw a short doco about this issue in some outlying towns , where these problems are a long way from being solved.
One government school used to run two separate proms, and after being challenged, rather than a prom for all ,they just cancelled them !
The good news is the younger generation will eventually change hearts and minds.

 

[BEaston]

I don’t really know too much about politics, but I do know a lot of how the average American lacks intelligence. They are repeatedly told how they are in the best country in the world and how good everyone is, but they don’t have much accountability.

Trump is an intelligent man, but he doesn’t show a tendency to actually lead. He divides, incites and always points blame elsewhere.

I think he wins for 2 reasons. The above, as he appeals to that average American that doesn’t think for themselves. The amount of Trump supporters are the ones that hated Obama, the best president they have probably ever had.

And deep down, a lot of people won’t vote for a female.

Hard to argue with this. If he gets up, he's what they deserve.

 

[Pugz89]

I think Trump wins and with between 280-300 Electoral College votes. Think he wins PA, which is crucial to whoever wins the election.
Rightly or wrongly, the economy is a big issue (as in any national election), and many remember back to Trump's first term and they had more money in their pockets then, compared to now. Rightly or wrongly, they attribute current economical conditions to the Dems/Harris and so I expect many will vote Trump based purely on their expectations of a positive Trump economy going forward.

Historically, polls (I think) typically under report the conservative vote as well.
I checked a polling site which averages out other polls to give a total, and it had Harris 1% ahead on the national vote. She needs far more than that in the popular vote to win the presidency, whether she can pull that out to 3-4% to account for electoral college system, I don't think so. - https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

Based on the above if those above polls pan out accurately, Trump would flip Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nevada (6), and Pennsylvania (19) - a total of 52 votes.
That would put Harris at 252 and Trump at 284.

 

[Next Waiting]

I think Trump wins and with between 280-300 Electoral College votes. Think he wins PA, which is crucial to whoever wins the election.
Rightly or wrongly, the economy is a big issue (as in any national election), and many remember back to Trump's first term and they had more money in their pockets then, compared to now. Rightly or wrongly, they attribute current economical conditions to the Dems/Harris and so I expect many will vote Trump based purely on their expectations of a positive Trump economy going forward.

Historically, polls (I think) typically under report the conservative vote as well.
I checked a polling site which averages out other polls to give a total, and it had Harris 1% ahead on the national vote. She needs far more than that in the popular vote to win the presidency, whether she can pull that out to 3-4% to account for electoral college system, I don't think so. - https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

Based on the above if those above polls pan out accurately, Trump would flip Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nevada (6), and Pennsylvania (19) - a total of 52 votes.
That would put Harris at 252 and Trump at 284.

So my thinking is that the perceived economic and policy differences might get traction further down the ticket. Maybe.

But I think Trump has performed so badly in the last week that he's made himself unelectable as President.

A Democratic President and a Republican House is a pretty sh1tful combination but I feel it's more palatable than Trump as President is what the electorate will go for if backed into a corner.

Trump couldn't have done more to back them into that corner over the last week imo.

 

[Pugz89]

So my thinking is that the perceived economic and policy differences might get traction further down the ticket. Maybe.

But I think Trump has performed so badly in the last week that he's made himself unelectable as President.

A Democratic President and a Republican House is a pretty sh1tful combination but I feel it's more palatable than Trump as President is what the electorate will go for if backed into a corner.

Trump couldn't have done more to back them into that corner over the last week imo.

Maybe. Hard to say without being over there and knowing the conversations that are being had. Haven't really considered what might happen with the house and senate tbh. A Trump presidency and Dem house/senate would be a bit funny, although not great for the next two years over there.

 

[Bulldog1954]

It's staggering to me that this guy is likely to win an election.

 

[Fossie 32]

Trump says ‘I shouldn’t have left’ White House, despite losing 2020 election — Guardian Australia

Ex-president also denounces polls showing him trailing Harris at one of his final rallies of campaign in Pennyslvania

apple.news

 

[Sentinel]

It's staggering to me that this guy is likely to win an election.

It's fake (but sadly very believable that it could be him)

 

[Bulldog1954]

It's fake (but sadly very believable that it could be him)

My bad. I guess I thought a guy who would do that during a rally would also write something like that

 

[Mutt]

I stand by my prediction of last week—Harris wins comfortably with a bigger electoral college vote than Biden. Polls are underestimating the reproductive rights issue big time, just as they did in the midterms when the "red wave" failed to materialise—Democrats to win the Presidency and hold both the House and Senate.

 

[CarnTheScray]

The 2016 election results have really made people think Trump is a big chance. I mean technically he is, he will get his 60-80 million votes from his diehard supporters that would charge into a brick wall if he told them to.

But account for the fact that he got belted in the popular vote by Biden and was still beaten by Hillary who was probably the most uninspiring candidate I can recall from recent history (could probably argue Al Gore or someone else) and it makes that result less impressive.

Not to mention how this has been the democrats best campaign in years, one that has been intelligently communicated whilst Trumps has been nothing short of a train wreck, seriously there has been a new scandal or quote containing misogyny and racism coming out every day.

 

[dogwatch]

To the surprise of no-one I don't want Trump to win.

There are many many reasons but the single killer reason is that he would reverse the modest gains made on climate change over the last four years. He would almost certainly pull out of the Paris Agreement (again). It's not much but it's all we've got. He would then announce that the USA is going to "drill baby drill" cheered on wildly by the fossil fuel establishment, like Slim Pickens riding the H-Bomb out of his B-52. With the US not playing by the rules of the Paris Agreement none of the other big emitters will either, even if they maintain it as their official policy.

Regardless of the US election, we have very little hope of avoiding a catastrophic climate disaster anyway, but the election of Trump will just accelerate and exacerbate the whole thing.

I have little knowledge of what Kamala Harris has to offer. At the moment nothing about her enthuses me but she has one big thing going for her. She's not Donald Trump.

 

[Pugz89]

The 2016 election results have really made people think Trump is a big chance. I mean technically he is, he will get his 60-80 million votes from his diehard supporters that would charge into a brick wall if he told them to.

But account for the fact that he got belted in the popular vote by Biden and was still beaten by Hillary who was probably the most uninspiring candidate I can recall from recent history (could probably argue Al Gore or someone else) and it makes that result less impressive.

Not to mention how this has been the democrats best campaign in years, one that has been intelligently communicated whilst Trumps has been nothing short of a train wreck, seriously there has been a new scandal or quote containing misogyny and racism coming out every day.

Dems' best campaign in years? Biden was candidate two months ago, and they had to rush Harris through an expedited primary process to fill the void, coz Joe was cooked beyond belief.

Hardly an inspiring effort from the Dems imo.

 

[bobs head soup]

In a democracy, a country gets the leaders they deserve

 

[dogwatch]

In a democracy, a country gets the leaders they deserve

So what do they get in an autocracy?

 

[bobs head soup]

So what do they get in an autocracy?

What they're given, I suppose.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

So what do they get in an autocracy?

Optimus Prime...oh sorry that's autobots

 

[CarnTheScray]

Dems' best campaign in years? Biden was candidate two months ago, and they had to rush Harris through an expedited primary process to fill the void, coz Joe was cooked beyond belief.

Hardly an inspiring effort from the Dems imo.

Biden was 4 months ago. They have done well to turn the ship around, the fact they’ve had to change candidates is a non factor at this point.

I didn’t say it was the greatest campaign effort of all time, I said it was their best in years. It’s been 8 years since 2016, with 3 elections happening in that time so yes, I chose the correct measurement of time.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Dems' best campaign in years? Biden was candidate two months ago, and they had to rush Harris through an expedited primary process to fill the void, coz Joe was cooked beyond belief.

Hardly an inspiring effort from the Dems imo.

Seriously?

It's an indictment on him as a candidate that Trump hasn't been able to capitalise on the established fact the Democrats had to change candidates with 80 to go before an election. This is especially so as the new candidate was a slow ball pitch right into his striking zone of racism and misogyny. That he hasn't been able to hit it out of a park of dwindling crowds and enthusiasm speaks to who has actually run a poor and completely unhinged campaign. An enthusiasm that has definitely been on the wain since the fascist adjacent rally at MSG.

Trump should be rounding the last, waving at the crowd and heading in for an easy home run. Yet here we are with him doubling down on his tired circus act idiocy of fellating microphones as he desperately asks for his supporters to turn out to vote and save him from his impending trials.

He's cooked.

 

[dogwatch]

Cooked or not, he may still win. The polls are tight but they underestimated his vote at the last two elections. If they’re still saying neck and neck then I think Trump is the most likely outcome.

 

[Next Waiting]

I stand by my prediction of last week—Harris wins comfortably with a bigger electoral college vote than Biden. Polls are underestimating the reproductive rights issue big time, just as they did in the midterms when the "red wave" failed to materialise—Democrats to win the Presidency and hold both the House and Senate.

I'd like you to be right. A Dem clean sweep will at least hasten the demise of maga. The Republicans are not a credible alternative with their disproportionate influence.

And yeah, I think the ladies of all ages and persuasions are coming for Trump. And they are going to beat the sh1t out of him.

Kamala has used the we ain't going back mantra throughout her campaign. It means multiple things but I feel it particularly resonates with women, on a reproductive and attitudinal level and Trump is the goose they are about to cook.

 

[ossie_21]

I'd like you to be right. A Dem clean sweep will at least hasten the demise of maga. The Republicans are not a credible alternative with their disproportionate influence.

And yeah, I think the ladies of all ages and persuasions are coming for Trump. And they are going to beat the sh1t out of him.

Kamala has used the we ain't going back mantra throughout her campaign. It means multiple things but I feel it particularly resonates with women, on a reproductive and attitudinal level and Trump is the goose they are about to cook.

His make-up makes him look half done, so hopefully he’s not far off being full Kramer.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Cooked or not, he may still win. The polls are tight but they underestimated his vote at the last two elections. If they’re still saying neck and neck then I think Trump is the most likely outcome.

Most polls are being skewed by an avalanche of right leaning polls designed to suppress democratic turnout by sowing a sense of inevitability about an truly mp victory and to set the pretext for the coming shitshow of protests and court cases. This strategy has been clear for months now. It’s no accident that he’s become completely unhinged since MSG, as he understands where the real polling data is at.

I’m expecting a re-run of the 2020 result right down to where Trump takes an early election night lead and calls victory. Only to be swamped over the next 12-24 hours.

The it’s off to the courts to decide the will of the people. By then I would’ve had my fill of popcorn and circuses.

 

[Werewolf]

Cooked or not, he may still win. The polls are tight but they underestimated his vote at the last two elections. If they’re still saying neck and neck then I think Trump is the most likely outcome.

Also something like only 1 in 4 Americans think the country is on the right track. Historically, that means the incumbent party loses. While Harris isn't quite the incumbent, she couldn't say what she would've done differently to Biden.