Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Cdog71]

we can definitively say is that if you get a double up against WCE, Richmond or NM then you have an advantage. We got one of those.

I think there’s a lot more to it than that…but perhaps this isn’t the thread for it.

There’s no doubt the impact your young talent is having brings you guys closer to wins than what ours is having.
This season.

It may be next season also but all we can definitively say is Geelong has been more competitive than Richmond this season.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Short isn't under 28. Under 28. Not 28 and under.

Baker and Rioli are likely out of there.

Gibcus' injury issues are making him look more of a speculative prospect compared to say SDK.

Graham looks done to me.

Young went backwards this year.

Ryan at times looks like he has never played football.

Kozzy is a plodder.

Hopper and Taranto have grunt but are absolute butchers with the ball and I think their best football is already behind them. By the time a classy young 18 year old midfielder with the necessary skills to compliment them is peaking, they will be at the end or gone.

Lol, replace Short with Trezise or Smith.

And if you have found some imperfections in our U/28 team, congratulations. Now have another look at your own U/28 team and tell me that has no weaknesses.

Saying Graham is cooked or Gibcus is speculative or Baker or Rioli are out of there is all black hat stuff.

Graham has a very decent record and most players go through difficulties with injuries or having to play unsuitable roles at stages of their careers. The only way Baker or Rioli leave is with strong compensation coming back Richmond's way.

Baker = roughly pick 13 value
Rioli = roughly pick 8 value

If Graham leaves Richmond we are likely to get a mid 20's pick for him.

If we auctioned Gibcus off right here right now we would likely get a low top 10 pick for him or something just below that.

And Ryan didn't look too much like he had never played football when he hit Mansell with a bullet pass yesterday. His trouble is not skill, but you knew that of course, lol.

Koschitzke has been playing better but his ceiling looks handy key position or ruck/forward depth.

Your poster named your team with Jack Bowes in the centre from memory. He is a salary dump player no club wanted for nothing. Knevitt on a wing. O Henry and Neale as your two key forwards. Mullin in defence. And a lot of other players a long way short of proving themselves at AFL level.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Just looking through this list of Richmond superstars aged 24-27. It's impressive. Get a couple more prime aged guns and they might even avoid the wooden spoon.

 

[Mr Meow]

Lol, replace Short with Trezise or Smith.

And if you have found some imperfections in our U/28 team, congratulations. Now have another look at your own U/28 team and tell me that has no weaknesses.

Saying Graham is cooked or Gibcus is speculative or Baker or Rioli are out of there is all black hat stuff.

Graham has a very decent record and most players go through difficulties with injuries or having to play unsuitable roles at stages of their careers. The only way Baker or Rioli leave is with strong compensation coming back Richmond's way.

Baker = roughly pick 13 value
Rioli = roughly pick 8 value

If Graham leaves Richmond we are likely to get a mid 20's pick for him.

If we auctioned Gibcus off right here right now we would likely get a low top 10 pick for him or something just below that.

And Ryan didn't look too much like he had never played football when he hit Mansell with a bullet pass yesterday. His trouble is not skill, but you knew that of course, lol.

Koschitzke has been playing better but his ceiling looks handy key position or ruck/forward depth.

Your poster named your team with Jack Bowes in the centre from memory. He is a salary dump player no club wanted for nothing. Knevitt on a wing. O Henry and Neale as your two key forwards. Mullin in defence. And a lot of other players a long way short of proving themselves at AFL level.

This season:

Bolton, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Graham, Rioli, Baker, Miller and the other under 28s have had 17 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 66 votes in total.

Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, Bowes, Dempsey, SDK, Close, Miers, Bruhn and O.Henry have had 33 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 167 votes in total.

Quite a big difference in output. And that's including your "super elite" 24-27 year old cohort.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This season:

Bolton, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Graham, Rioli, Baker, Miller and the other under 28s have had 17 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 66 votes in total.

Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, Bowes, Dempsey, SDK, Close, Miers, Bruhn and O.Henry have had 33 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 167 votes in total.

Quite a big difference in output. And that's including your "super elite" 24-27 year old cohort.

You are getting out of your lane now and drifting all over the shop.

If you want to compare 24-27yo's then do that.

Yours are to be honest, not much to write home about.

Your 23 and unders are going well at the moment compared to ours but there are potentially reasons impacting that none of you Cats fans seem to want to acknowledge.

 

[Mr Meow]

You are getting out of your lane now and drifting all over the shop.

If you want to compare 24-27yo's then do that.

Yours are to be honest, not much to write home about.

Your 23 and unders are going well at the moment compared to ours but there are potentially reasons impacting that none of you Cats fans seem to want to acknowledge.

I presented the facts; the onus is on you to obfuscate, distract, protest and squirm.

Twice as many games in the coaches votes for the under 28's and aboout 2.5x as many coaches votes in total for Geelong tells the story. I included up to 27 y.o so that Richmond's elite 24-27 year olds would not be excluded. Restricting it to 23 and unders would give an even greater difference.

 

[Morro]

This season:

Bolton, Balta, Taranto, Hopper, Graham, Rioli, Baker, Miller and the other under 28s have had 17 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 66 votes in total.

Holmes, Stengle, Miers, Zuthrie, Bowes, Dempsey, SDK, Close, Miers, Bruhn and O.Henry have had 33 games between them where they have recorded coaches votes: 167 votes in total.

Quite a big difference in output. And that's including your "super elite" 24-27 year old cohort.

Have all missed heaps of footy this year, this isnt the flex you hoped

 

[Mr Meow]

Have all missed heaps of footy this year, this isnt the flex you hoped

267 games played by under 28's players for Richmond this season.

242 games played by under 28's players for Geelong this season.

If Humphries records coaches votes from the Pies game that would make 6 Geelong players aged 23 or under who have recorded coaches votes this season.

Richmond have not had a single player aged 23 or under receive a coaches vote this season.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I presented the facts; the onus is on you to obfuscate, distract, protest and squirm.

Twice as many games in the coaches votes for the under 28's and aboout 2.5x as many coaches votes in total for Geelong tells the story. I included up to 27 y.o so that Richmond's elite 24-27 year olds would not be excluded. Restricting it to 23 and unders would give an even greater difference.

You are not comparing apples with apples though.

One group is almost fully healthy and playing in a team with very few injuries overall, with a stable coaching structure.

The other group has been troubled by a load of key injuries, Balta, Ross, Gibcus, Rioli Jnr, Hopper, Taranto, Young, Graham, Lefau, Bauer, Clarke, have all suffered serious disruption this season. And those that are playing are playing in a totally unstable and losing team and under a brand new coaching structure.

If you were in this for a serious discussion you would at least acknowledge that and the fact it likely makes a huge difference to the expected coaches votes of the 2 groups.

 

[Mr Meow]

You are not comparing apples with apples though.

One group is almost fully healthy and playing in a team with very few injuries overall, with a stable coaching structure.

The other group has been troubled by a load of key injuries, Balta, Ross, Gibcus, Rioli Jnr, Hopper, Taranto, Young, Graham, Lefau, Bauer, Clarke, have all suffered serious disruption this season. And those that are playing are playing in a totally unstable and losing team and under a brand new coaching structure.

If you were in this for a serious discussion you would at least acknowledge that and the fact it likely makes a huge difference to the expected coaches votes of the 2 groups.

Ross, Hopper, MRJ, Gibcus, Graham, Young, Bauer, Clarke and Lefau weren't getting coaches votes anyway! These players having some disruptions wildly moved the needle, you think? Come on...

Of the vote getters, okay Balta and Taranto have missed some games.

 

[Morro]

Ross, Hopper, MRJ, Gibcus, Graham, Young, Bauer, Clarke and Lefau weren't getting coaches votes anyway! These players having some disruptions wildly moved the needle, you think? Come on...

Of the vote getters, okay Balta and Taranto have missed some games.

You are also comparing a stable team to one that has been decimated all year. Strange hill to die on

 

[Morro]

267 games played by under 28's players for Richmond this season.

242 games played by under 28's players for Geelong this season.

If Humphries records coaches votes from the Pies game that would make 6 Geelong players aged 23 or under who have recorded coaches votes this season.

Richmond have not had a single player aged 23 or under receive a coaches vote this season.

The players abilities that have missed carries far more relevancy than the generic numbers you quote.

 

[Mr Meow]

You are also comparing a stable team to one that has been decimated all year. Strange hill to die on

Whatever keeps you happy, man. You're the one in here protesting.

 

[Mr Meow]

The players abilities that have missed carries far more relevancy than the generic numbers you quote.

Outside of Taranto and Balta, no Richmond under 28 players that have missed chunks of games this year have proved decisive performers in season 2024. And they've still played 23 games between them.

Bolton has played 16. Baker 14.

Please amuse me by trying to sell the cases of players like Hopper, Ross and Graham. Let's look at how many coaches votes they have amassed across seasons 2023/2024 collectively: 18 votes!

Now try and convince yourself that the 4 Richmond players in this group who actually win votes, missing 15 games between them accounts for that cohort receiving half as many games where they polled votes, or 40% as many total votes as their Cats equivalents (Bowes, Bruhn, O.Henry and SDK have missed games anyway).

 

[Morro]

Outside of Taranto and Balta, no Richmond under 28 players that have missed chunks of games this year have proved decisive performers in season 2024. And they've still played 23 games between them.

Bolton has played 16. Baker 14.

Please amuse me by trying to sell the cases of players like Hopper, Ross and Graham. Let's look at how many coaches votes they have amassed across seasons 2023/2024 collectively: 18 votes!

We have hardly had Hopper, has had no continuity even when he has played. Considering this, he has shown how good he will be if ever stays on the park.

 

[STPer18]

7 more coaches votes for young Holmes.

Messi, Z. Guthrie and Bowes amongst it too.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yze's in a really tough spot with young players. They're just not playing at the level.

If we look at games played by players who were under 22 at the start of the season:

Geelong - 88 starting 22 plus 6 as sub.
Richmond - 67 starting 22 plus 11 as sub.

On average not even 4 Richmond players each week in the starting 22 have been under 22.

But what's he supposed to do? He's been incredibly patient with young players and they've collectively shown virtually nothing all year. Sonsie putting in a 3 disposal performance after being backed in for months despite ordinary performances said it all.

He must shake his head when Lawson Humphries taken from the WAFL reserves in his first year looks well ahead of Tom Brown, taken with a top 20 pick and in his 3rd year at the club. And Brown looks arguably Richmond's most talented kid.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

267 games played by under 28's players for Richmond this season.

242 games played by under 28's players for Geelong this season.

If Humphries records coaches votes from the Pies game that would make 6 Geelong players aged 23 or under who have recorded coaches votes this season.

Richmond have not had a single player aged 23 or under receive a coaches vote this season.

Richmond have played 28 different players in this age group(27yo and under) this year. The top 10 of those have missed

Bolton 1
Taranto 6
Balta 4
Baker 3
Hopper 11
Maurice 8
Ross 12
Dan Rioli 0
Graham 8
Gibcus 15

68 games missed by what is likely our best 10 u/28 players.

And it goes on and on Lefau, Bauer, Clarke, Trezise, Ryan, Young, Campbell have all missed anything from a couple of matches to most of the season injured.

Geelong have played 20 players in this age group. Your top 10 of those have missed under 10 games between them as far as I can see.

 

[moond0g]

267 games played by under 28's players for Richmond this season.

242 games played by under 28's players for Geelong this season.

If Humphries records coaches votes from the Pies game that would make 6 Geelong players aged 23 or under who have recorded coaches votes this season.

Richmond have not had a single player aged 23 or under receive a coaches vote this season.

TBF when you've only won 2 games for the year not many players would have received coaches votes, young or old.

But I broadly agree that we probably have a better young core. However the trolling on both sides is humorous, so please don't let me stop you.

 

[Mr Meow]

We have hardly had Hopper, has had no continuity even when he has played. Considering this, he has shown how good he will be if ever stays on the park.

This weekend is a classic example of what I'm trying to tell you though.

Richmond players receiving coaches votes: Nankervis and Prestia. Nobody under 30.

Now Geelong did still have Dangerfield BOG and Stewart pick up a solitary vote. But they also had Bowes (26), Zuthrie (25), Miers (25) and Holmes (21). Humphries (21) would've been very close.

 

[DanA]

Richmond have played 28 different players in this age group(27yo and under) this year. The top 10 of those have missed

Bolton 1
Taranto 6
Balta 4
Baker 3
Hopper 11
Maurice 8
Ross 12
Dan Rioli 0
Graham 8
Gibcus 15

68 games missed by what is likely our best 10 u/28 players.

And it goes on and on Lefau, Bauer, Clarke, Trezise, Ryan, Young, Campbell have all missed anything from a couple of matches to most of the season injured.

Geelong have played 20 players in this age group. Your top 10 of those have missed under 10 games between them as far as I can see.

They are your top 10 and half wouldn't make Geelong's best 22.

 

[Mr Meow]

Richmond have played 28 different players in this age group(27yo and under) this year. The top 10 of those have missed

Bolton 1
Taranto 6
Balta 4
Baker 3
Hopper 11
Maurice 8
Ross 12
Dan Rioli 0
Graham 8
Gibcus 15

68 games missed by what is likely our best 10 u/28 players.

And it goes on and on Lefau, Bauer, Clarke, Trezise, Ryan, Young, Campbell have all missed anything from a couple of matches to most of the season injured.

Geelong have played 20 players in this age group. Your top 10 of those have missed under 10 games between them as far as I can see.

I've bolded the ones where I chuckled at the thought of them moving the coaches vote needle if they played every game this season.

So you have 14 games missed from that group for players who have proved themselves vote worthy.

Geelong has 12 games missed from 27 and under players who have registered coaches votes this season and therefore proven themselves "vote worthy".

Next.

 

[Morro]

This weekend is a classic example of what I'm trying to tell you though.

Richmond players receiving coaches votes: Nankervis and Prestia. Nobody under 30.

Now Geelong did still have Dangerfield BOG and Stewart pick up a solitary vote. But they also had Bowes (26), Zuthrie (25), Miers (25) and Holmes (21). Humphries (21) would've been very close.

Yes but you cant ignore the injuries. Now to be clear, I aint even arguing whether or not your kids are better, they are, but some of your points require more depth to see the true picture.

That said, our draft hand this year and one or 2 trades could see our Youth look significantly different and in a short period, this conversation flips on its head.

 

[Morro]

They are your top 10 and half wouldn't make Geelong's best 22.

Which 5 of the top 10 wouldnt make your best 22?

 

[Morro]

I've bolded the ones where I chuckled at the thought of them moving the coaches vote needle if they played every game this season.

So you have 14 games missed from that group for players who have proved themselves vote worthy.

Geelong has 12 games missed from 27 and under players who have registered coaches votes this season and therefore proven themselves "vote worthy".

Next.

Hopper, Ross and Gibcus make a difference, its silly to suggest otherwise.