Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Strange Cat]

I don’t know why anyone would try to engage with the bitter troll nothing good comes from it other than wasted energies

I’m sure he will enjoy the high draft pick the tigers will get over the next few years as they rise to to 9th eventually

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don’t know why anyone would try to engage with the bitter troll nothing good comes from it other than wasted energies

I’m sure he will enjoy the high draft pick the tigers will get over the next few years as they rise to to 9th eventually

Somewhat superseded by the fact Richmond have won 50% more flags this century than they have had 9th placed finishes. The funniest part is those flags were at the Cats expense as well. All 2 flag turnarounds between the 2 clubs. Otherwise, you'd be where we are, and we'd be where you are....13 v 10.

 

[Mr Meow]

Somewhat superseded by the fact Richmond have won 50% more flags this century than they have had 9th placed finishes. The funniest part is those flags were at the Cats expense as well. All 2 flag turnarounds between the 2 clubs. Otherwise, you'd be where we are, and we'd be where you are....13 v 10.

For all that, we've won twice as many grand finals at your home ground than Richmond has this century.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

For all that, we've won twice as many grand finals at your home ground than Richmond has this century.

And we've won Grand Finals at twice as many venues as you.

 

[DanA]

The Cats 23 and under contingent is going better than Richmond's, it has never been disputed. This will happen when one team spends draft capital on 20-21yo former rd 1 picks and the other team's contingent is decimated by injuries(Gibcus, Clarke, Rioli Jnr, Ross) and those that do play are playing amongst turmoil because the rest of the team is also smashed by injuries.

Give knee injuries to DeKoning and say Jhye Clark and throw the rest of yours into a team missing half its best players and give us Ross, Rioli Jnr, Gibcus and Jud Clarke off full pre-seasons and fully fit and how do you think it would look.

Tigers have got other players 22 and under who haven't been able to get a run at it either that look promising, Trezise, Bauer, Smith. There is a long long way to go before you can start declaring your rebuild past the post, even based on the performance of your 23 and under players. But when you start throwing in the little add on of your mid 20's guys into your posts, you need to compare them against the Tigers mid 20's contingent. And the Richmond lot are a clear class above.

So would you say Geelong's rebuild is going better than Richmond's? It has never been disputed?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So would you say Geelong's rebuild is going better than Richmond's? It has never been disputed?

Not at all. Your rebuild is not exposed because you are playing stable teams up with the oldest in the AFL. We have no idea how our young players would go in similar circumstances because they haven't had the opportunity in the last 2 seasons. When they did get the opportunity in 2022, what happened?

And to put the Cats rebuild ahead of the Tigers you need to totally ignore the yawning gulf between our 24-27yo's and yours.

What I am not disputing is your 23yo's and under are playing a lot better than ours at the moment.

 

[STPer18]

9) Geelong's next generation cannot be ignored​

While the impact of senior players was crucial for Geelong in its 20-point win over Collingwood on Friday, it was in fact the next crop of players who really got the job done. The likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

and Tom Stewart were important, but the consolidation of Gryan Miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

, Max Holmes and Jack Bowes

12

Jack Bowes

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.3

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.5

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

18.0

4star

K

11.8

5star

HB

6.3

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.1

2star

MG

318.1

4star

D

11.6

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.4

4star

alongside youngsters Lawson Humphries, Sam De Koning and Oliver Dempsey is what makes the Cats such a dangerous prospect this year. Dempsey covered the most ground of any player on the field, offering consistency across 100 per cent game time on the wing, Humphries recorded 23 disposals and 13 marks in defence, and De Koning became a fourth midfielder while playing as the No.1 ruck option. After several seasons of the Cats regularly relying on the oldest squad in the competition, the emergence of this damaging next crop has them well in the hunt for another flag. – Gemma Bastiani

 

[Rich01]

Has Geelongs rebuild started?
If I were a cats fan I’d be enjoying their run at the flag now.

When Danger, Cameron, Hawkins, Stewart, Kolo retire they will be mid pack again.
This year is their time at a tilt and I think coach Scott knows it.

 

[Mr Meow]

Has Geelongs rebuild started?
If I were a cats fan I’d be enjoying their run at the flag now.

When Danger, Cameron, Hawkins, Stewart, Kolo retire they will be mid pack again.
This year is their time at a tilt and I think coach Scott knows it.

Of course it's started. The changing of the guard began after we faced Richmond in the 2020 grand final.

Since that 2020 GF - Ablett, Taylor, Henderson, Selwood, Smith and Menegola have retired.

Stanley and Bews aren't best 22.

Blicavs, Duncan, Tuohy and Rohan are peripheral rather than important players.

Dangerfield plays half a season and is a low time on ground, burst player.

Close, Stengle, Zuthrie, SDK, Holmes, Bowes, Bruhn, Dempsey, Neale, O.Henry, Conway, Humphries, Clark and Mullin have all been or are being integrated into the team - a bunch of them becoming important players in the meantime.

 

[DanA]

Lol it is hard to take your posts seriously.

You refer to the Geelong 24-26yo's. Let's make it guys with likely 5 years + left. 24-27yo's.

Cats: O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Z Guthrie, Close, J Henry, Stengle, Miers, Mullin

No prime movers, just all flankers, pockets bar Bowes who was a salary dump.

Tigers: Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Lefau, Young, Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke.

Flag winners, multiple premiers, high B & F finishes, midfielders and key position players galore.

So I would stay in your 23 and under lane if I were you. And just keep hoping the Tigers best youngsters keep getting injured and/or having to play in very unstable teams.

If I accept the cherry-picked bracket and squint hard I can kind of get the point you are trying to make. It feels a bit superficial as far as analysis goes. Stevie Wonder can see Geelong's team (even ignoring injuries and over 30s) is far more stable and far more talented.

if we each picked a best 22 and I picked only Geelong's U28 team and you picked only Richmond's u28 team. Geelong's is better. The difference is huge.

Geelong:

FB: Z.Guthrie De Koning Mullins
HB: Humphries Henry Holmes
C: Dempsey Bowes Knevitt
HF: Miers O.Henry Mannagh
FF: Close Neale Stengle
R: Conway Bruhn Clark
I/C: O'Connor, Parfitt, O'Sullivan, Clohesy

• Blue are established best 22
• Green have put in some nice performances this month but still establishing themselves

LOL.....Now do yours.

 

[Sttew]

This year is their time at a tilt and I think coach Scott knows it.

But Steven Wells and Andrew Mackie haven’t been told.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lol it is hard to take your posts seriously.


If I accept the cherry-picked bracket and squint hard I can kind of get the point you are trying to make. It feels a bit superficial as far as analysis goes. Stevie Wonder can see Geelong's team (even ignoring injuries and over 30s) is far more stable and far more talented.

if we each picked a best 22 and I picked only Geelong's U28 team and you picked only Richmond's u28 team. Geelong's is better. The difference is huge.

Geelong:

FB: Z.Guthrie De Koning Mullins
HB: Humphries Henry Holmes
C: Dempsey Bowes Knevitt
HF: Miers O.Henry Mannagh
FF: Close Neale Stengle
R: Conway Bruhn Clark
I/C: O'Connor, Parfitt, O'Sullivan, Clohesy

• Blue are established best 22
• Green have put in some nice performances this month but still establishing themselves

LOL.....Now do yours.

FB Miller Gibcus Young/Blight
HB Short D Rioli Brown
C Ross Taranto Ralphsmith
HF Bolton M Rioli Graham
FF Balta(2nd ruck) Lefau Koschitzke

R Ryan Hopper Baker

I/C Mansell Banks Campbell Sonsie

With a likely number 1 draft pick to come into the midfield.

The guys is blue are probably all established best 22 as of now. As we can see there are 14 of them. The players in green have shown sufficient promise when playing in the team to strongly suggest best 22 in the future.

We saw Steely Green pop up with 3 goals yesterday, and there are plenty of other young players who have consistenly played well at VFL level, Jud Clarke, Trezise, Smith, Gray(over this season with both Bombers 2 and Tigers 2) McAuliffe, Bauer, and now basketball convert Hayes-Brown in the ruck.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with our 28 and under team compared to yours. We lack a classy mid, cue pick 1 about to be added. Geelong don't have a high class one who has shown up as yet. We could probably use a proven gun key forward, but Geelong don't have one.

If your guys look better at the moment it is due in large part to the chronic instability in our team, which of course won't last forever, but has netted us a powerful draft hand. Something else Geelong doesn't have.

13 of our players have played AFL finals. v 9 of yours?

 

[Sttew]

FB Miller Gibcus Young/Blight
HB Short D Rioli Brown
C Ross Taranto Ralphsmith
HF Bolton M Rioli Graham
FF Balta(2nd ruck) Lefau Koschitzke

R Ryan Hopper Baker

I/C Mansell Banks Campbell Sonsie

With a likely number 1 draft pick to come into the midfield.

The guys is blue are probably all established best 22 as of now. As we can see there are 14 of them. The players in green have shown sufficient promise when playing in the team to strongly suggest best 22 in the future.

We saw Steely Green pop up with 3 goals yesterday, and there are plenty of other young players who have consistenly played well at VFL level, Jud Clarke, Trezise, Smith, Gray(over this season with both Bombers 2 and Tigers 2) McAuliffe, Bauer, and now basketball convert Hayes-Brown in the ruck.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with our 28 and under team compared to yours. We lack a classy mid, cue pick 1 about to be added. Geelong don't have a high class one who has shown up as yet. We could probably use a proven gun key forward, but Geelong don't have one.

If your guys look better at the moment it is due in large part to the chronic instability in our team, which of course won't last forever, but has netted us a powerful draft hand. Something else Geelong doesn't have.

13 of our players have played AFL finals. v 9 of yours?

Could you sound any more desperate Meteor? Who are you preaching to?

If we believe the rumour mill, at the end of 2024 Tigers will lose Baker to WA (that seems a certainty), Dusty and Rioli to GC, and Bolton to whomever is willing to pay the most. That translates to a number of top draft picks but also translates to a long period as cellar dwellers, i.e., a hard rebuild.

Brendon Gale was on record as saying his wish was for Richmond to be like Geelong and continually regenerate and contend for finals. No wonder he is leaving.

And the funny thing was that in 2007, when Tigers won the wooden spoon, it was the 157 pt belting by Geelong that kickstarted the Cats "juggernaut". Here we are 18 years later and Cats are still in finals contention and the Tigers set to be wooden spoon... again.

 

[Grrr]

There's no denying Richmond built a fantastic team and made the most of their window. But sustained long-term success was never really on the cards. Without the advantages created by repeated bottom-four finishes, and some shrewd trading, Richmond won't see success. The culture just isn't strong enough. Talent (like Stengle) falls through the cracks.

Seriously, Stengle falls through the cracks. He was a young kid with an average attitude who showed a bit. He went to Adelaide where he regressed due to multiple factors which we all know about, before being delisted. Grew up and went to Geelong who do have a good culture so great for the kid. Richmond's lousy culture managed to guide Dusty through some early moments.

 

[Cdog71]

I'd argue that some combination of SDK and Knevitt will take over Blicavs role.

Development of young Rucks is a little different to replacing what Blicavs can do.

Earlier this season you guys playing Bris…Mcarthy kicks a couple early so Scott puts Blicavs on him.
Mcarthy 5”10 Blicavs 6”5.

It’s crazy what Blicavs can do
Wing
Ruck
Shut down mid
KPD
Play on small fwds.

Alotve what makes you guys hard to play against us how versatile the players are and how good they are in different roles.

I like DeKoning and Knevit looks competitive but they are a long way from what Blicavs offers the Team

 

[Cdog71]

Could you sound any more desperate Meteor? Who are you preaching to?

If we believe the rumour mill, at the end of 2024 Tigers will lose Baker to WA (that seems a certainty), Dusty and Rioli to GC, and Bolton to whomever is willing to pay the most. That translates to a number of top draft picks but also translates to a long period as cellar dwellers, i.e., a hard rebuild.

Benny Gale was on record as saying his wish was for Richmond to be like Geelong and continually regenerate and contend for finals. No wonder he is leaving.

And the funny thing was that in 2007, when Tigers won the wooden spoon, it was the 157 pt belting by Geelong that kickstarted the Cats "juggernaut". Here we are 18 years later and Cats are still in finals contention and the Tigers set to be wooden spoon... again.

You guys finished 13th last year that’s why you’ve got such a sweet fixture.

 

[Mr Meow]

Development of young Rucks is a little different to replacing what Blicavs can do.

Earlier this season you guys playing Bris…Mcarthy kicks a couple early so Scott puts Blicavs on him.
Mcarthy 5”10 Blicavs 6”5.

It’s crazy what Blicavs can do
Wing
Ruck
Shut down mid
KPD
Play on small fwds.

Alotve what makes you guys hard to play against us how versatile the players are and how good they are in different roles.

I like DeKoning and Knevit looks competitive but they are a long way from what Blicavs offers the Team

Well yeah, I didn't say they'd be as good as Blicavs. They are just the most likely structural replacements between the two of them. O'Sullivan is another but needs a few years of development first.

SDK is the one we are seeing the versatility with first. Don't be surprised to see him up forward at times or as a large wingman over the next 5 or 10 years.

 

[Mr Meow]

FB Miller Gibcus Young/Blight
HB Short D Rioli Brown
C Ross Taranto Ralphsmith
HF Bolton M Rioli Graham
FF Balta(2nd ruck) Lefau Koschitzke

R Ryan Hopper Baker

I/C Mansell Banks Campbell Sonsie

With a likely number 1 draft pick to come into the midfield.

The guys is blue are probably all established best 22 as of now. As we can see there are 14 of them. The players in green have shown sufficient promise when playing in the team to strongly suggest best 22 in the future.

We saw Steely Green pop up with 3 goals yesterday, and there are plenty of other young players who have consistenly played well at VFL level, Jud Clarke, Trezise, Smith, Gray(over this season with both Bombers 2 and Tigers 2) McAuliffe, Bauer, and now basketball convert Hayes-Brown in the ruck.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with our 28 and under team compared to yours. We lack a classy mid, cue pick 1 about to be added. Geelong don't have a high class one who has shown up as yet. We could probably use a proven gun key forward, but Geelong don't have one.

If your guys look better at the moment it is due in large part to the chronic instability in our team, which of course won't last forever, but has netted us a powerful draft hand. Something else Geelong doesn't have.

13 of our players have played AFL finals. v 9 of yours?

Short isn't under 28. Under 28. Not 28 and under.

Baker and Rioli are likely out of there.

Gibcus' injury issues are making him look more of a speculative prospect compared to say SDK.

Graham looks done to me.

Young went backwards this year.

Ryan at times looks like he has never played football.

Kozzy is a plodder.

Hopper and Taranto have grunt but are absolute butchers with the ball and I think their best football is already behind them. By the time a classy young 18 year old midfielder with the necessary skills to compliment them is peaking, they will be at the end or gone.

 

[Mr Meow]

You guys finished 13th last year that’s why you’ve got such a sweet fixture.

Sweet fixture? Contrary to popular opinion, it actually hasn't been.

We played/will play Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast and Fremantle "away". All much harder prospects on the road.

A double up against Carlton, both away games.

Essendon and Melbourne (both top 8) - also away games. We've played Collingwood and Hawthorn at the G.

From the current top 8 teams, we have played just one of them in Geelong, the team that wins there every time (GWS).

No Richmond, NM or WCE double ups. St Kilda and Adelaide are double ups but were expected to be in or challenging for finals after last year.

 

[Cdog71]

Sweet fixture? Contrary to popular opinion, it actually hasn't been.

We played/will play Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Gold Coast and Fremantle "away". All much harder prospects on the road.

A double up against Carlton, both away games.

Essendon and Melbourne (both top 8) - also away games. We've played Collingwood and Hawthorn at the G.

From the current top 8 teams, we have played just one of them in Geelong, the team that wins there every time (GWS).

No Richmond, NM or WCE double ups. St Kilda and Adelaide are double ups but were expected to be in or challenging for finals after last year.

C’mon mate.

North twice
Hawthorn twice
St kilda twice

 

[Sttew]

You guys finished 13th last year that’s why you’ve got such a sweet fixture.

True

 

[Mr Meow]

C’mon mate.

North twice
Hawthorn twice
St kilda twice

Apologies about North.

Everything else I said stands to reason.

Hawthorn have been one of the form teams over the past couple of months (do you remember playing them?). St Kilda finished 6th last year.

One game against a top 8 team down in Geelong. Getting the best teams at home rather than away is a big part of making a fixture easier.

All the really strong home interstate teams we have played on their patch. Playing Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast and Fremantle away while not getting to play them at home isn't "easy".

 

[Cdog71]

Apologies about North.

Everything else I said stands to reason.

Hawthorn have been one of the form teams over the past couple of months.

One game against a top 8 team down in Geelong.

Ok
Like Essendon are one of the form teams of the season?
Unlucky they’re not second still I spose.

There’s still a lot to play out but I had you guys playing a prelim at the start of the season based on the fixture and after the way Collingwood started.
I think you still will, well done.

 

[Mr Meow]

Ok
Like Essendon are one of the form teams of the season?
Unlucky they’re not second still I spose.

There’s still a lot to play out but I had you guys playing a prelim at the start of the season based on the fixture and after the way Collingwood started.
I think you still will, well done.

The whole comp is weak. That hasn't affected Geelong more than it has other teams.

But playing strong interstate teams away but not at home, and playing almost none of the current top 8 teams at home all season - does not equate to an easy ride. Playing weaker teams away from home, and strong ones at home, is a dream fixture. So would be getting double ups against WCE and Richmond, the two weakest teams in the league.

It hasn't been a hard or easy fixture. We got some teams at the right times (Brisbane, Carlton the first time), and others at the wrong times (GC in NT...then Port and GWS pulled out their best road games of the season in the middle of bad patches of form).

Teams are so inconsistent from 2nd to 13th (and even for teams like Adelaide and St Kilda) that the idea of a fixture grading is flimsy. It depends which version you face on the day.

All we can definitively say is that if you get a double up against WCE, Richmond or NM then you have an advantage. We got one of those.

 

[Morro]

I see the theme now is mentioning the players that we are going to lose as some kind of flex, we will not be losing Baker, Bolton and Rioli just to save you some time Cats folks.