Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

There's no denying Richmond built a fantastic team and made the most of their window. But sustained long-term success was never really on the cards. Without the advantages created by repeated bottom-four finishes, and some shrewd trading, Richmond won't see success. The culture just isn't strong enough. Talent (like Stengle) falls through the cracks.

Yep nothing to do wth a thing called the salary cap. And players needing to find somewhere to play at AFL level while they are in their finite playing days window.

All to do with culture apparently. The culture at Richmond was so bad that many of the players now regularly playing at other clubs could not get a game in Richmond's finals teams. Stengle, Butler, Higgins, Chol, Markov. Our culture was so bad the Cats couldn't employ one of our ex-players as an assistant coach quick enough once he retired, Grigg. Idiotic line of reasoning rom a Cats fan, yawn.

 

[DanA]

Let’s be honest:
Dangerfield, Blicavs, Tuohy, Stewart, Duncan, Cameron are all 31 or older. They are their best players. We saw what their midfield was like without their stars. Long way to go for them.
I say this because they beat a severely depleted and down on confidence Pies team, and some on here are getting well ahead of themselves.

If we're being honest the premiership team from 2022 has seen significant change.

• Selwood -> Bruhn
• C.Guthrie -> Holmes
• I.Smith -> Dempsey
• O'Connor -> Humphries
• Bews -> Mullins
• Parfiit -> Clark
• Hawkins -> Neale
• Rohan -> O.Henry
• Stanley -> De koning (with a bit of a shuffle)

These are all completed or clearly in progress changes showing some promise. I think Duncan and Touhy could be relatively easy replacements too as they are sitting on the fringe these days. Danger, Cameron, Stewart, and Blicavs will be more difficult.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Let’s be honest:
Dangerfield, Blicavs, Tuohy, Stewart, Duncan, Cameron are all 31 or older. They are their best players. We saw what their midfield was like without their stars. Long way to go for them.
I say this because they beat a severely depleted and down on confidence Pies team, and some on here are getting well ahead of themselves.

Wut?

 

[DanA]

Yep nothing to do wth a thing called the salary cap. And players needing to find somewhere to play at AFL level while they are in their finite playing days window.

All to do with culture apparently. The culture at Richmond was so bad that many of the players now regularly playing at other clubs could not get a game in Richmond's finals teams. Stengle, Butler, Higgins, Chol, Markov. Our culture was so bad the Cats couldn't employ one of our ex-players as an assistant coach quick enough once he retired, Grigg. Idiotic line of reasoning rom a Cats fan, yawn.

I'm not sure any of those guys above were lost to a salary cap squeeze, but no, the culture wasn't bad, it just wasn't strong enough to fight the league's equalisation measures as you've mentioned.

You were great with Martin, Cotchin and Lynch. Once they started to age. You just didn't have the early/priority draft picks or cap space to top up with and be competitive. Without those advantages, your team reverted to the mean and in my opinion a big part of that is your team doesn't have the culture to swim against the tide....Geelong does! That's why we've had 20 years of contending rather than a 3-4 year window. To do what we've done you can't have guys like Stengle slip through the cracks.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm not sure any of those guys above were lost to a salary cap squeeze, but no, the culture wasn't bad, it just wasn't strong enough to fight the league's equalisation measures as you've mentioned.

You were great with Martin, Cotchin and Lynch. Once they started to age. You just didn't have the early/priority draft picks or cap space to top up with and be competitive. Without those advantages, your team reverted to the mean because you don't have the culture to swim against the tide....Geelong does! That's why we've had 20 years of contending rather than a 3-4 year window.

According to you,

Anything that made Richmond good = "advantages"

Anything that makes Geelong good = "cultural"

LOL

Your "great culture" seems to get humbled by our "advantages" every time you meet us in a final.

Laughable line of reasoning.

 

[DanA]

According to you,

Anything that made Richmond good = "advantages"

Anything that makes Geelong good = "cultural"

LOL

Your "great culture" seems to get humbled by our "advantages" every time you meet us in a final.

Laughable line of reasoning.

Geelong had advantages in 2001-2007 with early picks, cap space, and father sons. But those have dried up and we are still competitive....why do you suppose that is?

I don't expect we'll meet you in the finals any time soon either and that's not because we won't be there.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong had advantages in 2001-2007 with early picks, cap space, and father sons. But those have dried up and we are still competitive....why do you suppose that is?

No injuries to speak of?

You are fielding the equal oldest team in the AFL?

You get to play 9 games per year on the ground you train on, which is like no other ground in the competition?

Your coach got to design rules to suit his list?

You have a soft draw softened further by meeting several teams at their season low point?

You might find a few of the reasons in there somewhere.

 

[DanA]

No injuries to speak of?

You are fielding the equal oldest team in the AFL?

You get to play 9 games per year on the ground you train on, which is like no other ground in the competition?

Your coach got to design rules to suit his list?

You have a soft draw softened further by meeting several teams at their season low point?

You might find a few of the reasons in there somewhere.

• I'm talking 20 years not 1, injury luck balances out over two decades but we do a better job of managing workload than most teams IMO. We missed finals last year, which allowed us to have a longer pre-season and we've taken full advantage of that.
• I'm talking 20 years not 1, the age profile ebbs and flows over time and hasn't meant much, we are seeing the average age declining right now for Geelong....so what.
• Unique dimensions like say the SCG? And with every GF at the MCG, you always have a home game in the GF, that's a real advantage for you guys. You are so lucky to have home games when it really matters, we aren't so lucky.
• Scott didn't design any rules but we have seen rules changed to combat methods to try and beat us. That's because we're so often the team to beat. It's gone the other way too, 3rd man up (significantly blunted the impact of Blicavs) a good example.
• By a margin, we've had the toughest average draw in the league over the last 20 years due to our consistent success.....It hasn't changed much for us. It's been a good draw this year but I'm talking 20 years NOT 1 so draw isn't really a factor

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Let’s be honest:
Dangerfield, Blicavs, Tuohy, Stewart, Duncan, Cameron are all 31 or older. They are their best players. We saw what their midfield was like without their stars. Long way to go for them.
I say this because they beat a severely depleted and down on confidence Pies team, and some on here are getting well ahead of themselves.

Including Blicavs, Touhy, & Duncan in that list is almost worthy of a ban.

You could have just stopped at Cameron, Stewart, & Dangerfield.

Wouldn't have been as dramatic, but at least you would have been right.

 

[Mr Meow]

If we're being honest the premiership team from 2022 has seen significant change.

• Selwood -> Bruhn
• C.Guthrie -> Holmes
• I.Smith -> Dempsey
• O'Connor -> Humphries
• Bews -> Mullins
• Parfiit -> Clark
• Hawkins -> Neale
• Rohan -> O.Henry
• Stanley -> De koning (with a bit of a shuffle)

These are all completed or clearly in progress changes showing some promise. I think Duncan and Touhy could be relatively easy replacements too as they are sitting on the fringe these days. Danger, Cameron, Stewart, and Blicavs will be more difficult.

I'd argue that some combination of SDK and Knevitt will take over Blicavs role. Then Conway as he builds his tank and hopefully stops picking up injuries, takes over from Stanley.

If we go back to the 2020 GF: Ablett, Taylor, Henderson and Menegola have also been replaced. All fairly important players 2017-2020 while we were chasing a flag.

 

[Mr Meow]

Including Blicavs, Touhy, & Duncan in that list is almost worthy of a ban.

You could have just stopped at Cameron, Stewart, & Dangerfield.

Wouldn't have been as dramatic, but at least you would have been right.

In other words, just one really important, elite performing veteran that will likely retire by the end of 2025 (Dangerfield).

Stewart started his AFL career late and Cameron is a freak, so both could easily push on for a few more seasons.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Lol, now Meow shifting the goal posts to 26 and unders.

Let's see who Richmond has to choose from then...

26yo double flag Liam "Ox" Baker, who has clubs lining up to make him a rich man.

26yo B & F in a Grand Final season T Taranto.

26yo double flag Jack Graham

26yo "One Man Gang" Mykelti Lefau

25yo Superstar and double flag player Shai Bolton

24yo 7th highest rated Key Defender Ben Miller

24yo Flag veteran and Tri-position powerhouse Noah Balta, who is likely to be the subject of huge free agency offers next year

Of course Cats can match that starting with 24yo Stengle who couldn't get a game with us and attracted so little interest in the market he had to stay at Geriatric Paddock. And rising 27yo Mannagh who could not get a game in our VFL team. Funny stuff.

Oh man please never stop poasting, this is gold.

 

[STPer18]

The finals experience should be good for the young fellas this year. It's a decent effort to be competing for top 4 whilst rebuilding and unearthing some long term players.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The finals experience should be good for the young fellas this year. It's a decent effort to be competing for top 4 whilst rebuilding and unearthing some long term players.

When your club rebuilds with average ages hovering at oldest and second oldest in the AFL all year it tells us all we need to know about how much of a rebuild this is.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Can’t worry yourself with it mate

Just enjoy whatever he brings when he is playing for you guys and take solice that if he does want to return West at some point you guys should will be able to get some very decent compensation for him

I made a post in one of the other Geelong threads after his first game
He’s going to be a jet

Kudos Moose.

If every Richmond supporter was like you we'd cut this forum's traffic in half within minutes.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Kudos Moose.

If every Richmond supporter was like you we'd cut this forum's traffic in half within minutes.

Don’t talk too soon mate
You should see me on gameday on here I can melt, troll and argue like the best on here

But I like to think there is plenty of room to acknowledge the positives from our rivals along will a healthy amount of banter on the side

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Don’t talk too soon mate
You should see me on gameday on here I can melt, troll and argue like the best on here

But I like to think there is plenty of room to acknowledge the positives from our rivals along will a healthy amount of banter on the side

That's the difference though, there's a balance with it. I'm the same.

Too much of one or the other and it just becomes white noise. Some on here could learn from that.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Kudos Moose.

If every Richmond supporter was like you we'd cut this forum's traffic in half within minutes.

Muddiemoose is a very intelligent and gentlemanly poster who is tremendously insightful and very fair and even handed in his comments.

The trouble with your post is every Richmond supporter IS like him.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's the difference though, there's a balance with it. I'm the same.

Too much of one or the other and it just becomes white and blue hooped noise. Some on here could learn from that.

Just wanted to help you out with one small adjustment Kobe, your posts are always almost perfect.

 

[Mr Meow]

When your club rebuilds with average ages hovering at oldest and second oldest in the AFL all year it tells us all we need to know about how much of a rebuild this is.

Well we're happy enough with the progress of our players aged 23 and under over the past two or three seasons.

SDK
Bruhn
Neale
O.Henry
Holmes
Dempsey
Humphries
Conway
Knevitt
Clark

Let's compare them to Richmond's best 10 in that age group:

Mansell
Ross
Ryan
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Sonsie
Brown
Gibcus
Campbell

Then a few 24-26 year olds are becoming our best players, with only 3 veterans still performing to a very high standard (compared to 2022 when about 8 or 9 were).

So in rebuild terms, things aren't looking too bad. We'll need to draft well and land a couple of big fish to continue the regeneration. But I would not want to swap situations with Richmond going forward, at all. And if you're being honest with yourself, neither would you.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Why do Richmond supporters always type like boomer cookers on Facebook?

Probably because they also boomer cookers on Facebook.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well we're happy enough with the progress of our players aged 23 and under over the past two or three seasons.

SDK
Bruhn
Neale
O.Henry
Holmes
Dempsey
Humphries
Conway
Knevitt
Clark

Let's compare them to Richmond's best 10 in that age group:

Mansell
Ross
Ryan
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Sonsie
Brown
Gibcus
Campbell

Then a few 24-26 year olds are becoming our best players, with only 3 veterans still performing to a very high standard (compared to 2022 when about 8 or 9 were).

So in rebuild terms, things aren't looking too bad. We'll need to draft well and land a couple of big fish to continue the regeneration. But I would not want to swap situations with Richmond going forward, at all. And if you're being honest with yourself, neither would you.

Lol it is hard to take your posts seriously.

You refer to the Geelong 24-26yo's. Let's make it guys with likely 5 years + left. 24-27yo's.

Cats: O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Z Guthrie, Close, J Henry, Stengle, Miers, Mullin

No prime movers, just all flankers, pockets bar Bowes who was a salary dump.

Tigers: Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Lefau, Young, Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke.

Flag winners, multiple premiers, high B & F finishes, midfielders and key position players galore.

So I would stay in your 23 and under lane if I were you. And just keep hoping the Tigers best youngsters keep getting injured and/or having to play in very unstable teams.

 

[Mr Meow]

Lol it is hard to take your posts seriously.

You refer to the Geelong 24-26yo's. Let's make it guys with likely 5 years + left. 24-27yo's.

Cats: O'Connor, Mannagh, Bowes, Parfitt, Z Guthrie, Close, J Henry, Stengle, Miers, Mullin

No prime movers, just all flankers, pockets bar Bowes who was a salary dump.

Tigers: Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Lefau, Young, Bolton, Miller, Balta, Mansell, Koschitzke.

Flag winners, multiple premiers, high B & F finishes, midfielders and key position players galore.

So I would stay in your 23 and under lane if I were you. And just keep hoping the Tigers best youngsters keep getting injured and/or having to play in very unstable teams.

Compare the two groups of top 10 players aged 23 or under that I posted. Which one has had better output and showing more potential over the past two seasons?

The fact that you refused to address is a complete concession and embarrassing on your behalf.

Stengle, Miers, Bowes, Zuthrie and Close have performed well this season and over the side's resurgence the past 3 weeks. Collectively their form line exceeds the likes of Blicavs, Hawkins, Stanley, Bews, Duncan, Tuohy and Cam Guthrie this season. Stewart, Cameron and Dangerfield have been our only high calibre veterans this season. And even then, two of them had horror patches for a handful of games and the other has missed half of the season so far. Thus yes, compared to 2022 the younger generation is stepping up and taking more responsibility.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Compare the two groups of top 10 players aged 23 or under that I posted. Which one has had better output and showing more potential over the past two seasons?

The fact that you refused to address is a complete concession and embarrassing on your behalf.

Stengle, Miers, Bowes, Zuthrie and Close have performed well this season and over the side's resurgence the past 3 weeks. Collectively their form line exceeds the likes of Blicavs, Hawkins, Stanley, Bews, Duncan, Tuohy and Cam Guthrie this season. Stewart, Cameron and Dangerfield have been our only high calibre veterans this season. And even then, two of them had horror patches for a handful of games and the other has missed half of the season so far. Thus yes, compared to 2022 the younger generation is stepping up and taking more responsibility.

The Cats 23 and under contingent is going better than Richmond's, it has never been disputed. This will happen when one team spends draft capital on 20-21yo former rd 1 picks and the other team's contingent is decimated by injuries(Gibcus, Clarke, Rioli Jnr, Ross) and those that do play are playing amongst turmoil because the rest of the team is also smashed by injuries.

Give knee injuries to DeKoning and say Jhye Clark and throw the rest of yours into a team missing half its best players and give us Ross, Rioli Jnr, Gibcus and Jud Clarke off full pre-seasons and fully fit and how do you think it would look.

Tigers have got other players 22 and under who haven't been able to get a run at it either that look promising, Trezise, Bauer, Smith. There is a long long way to go before you can start declaring your rebuild past the post, even based on the performance of your 23 and under players. But when you start throwing in the little add on of your mid 20's guys into your posts, you need to compare them against the Tigers mid 20's contingent. And the Richmond lot are a clear class above.

 

[Mr Meow]

The Cats 23 and under contingent is going better than Richmond's, it has never been disputed. This will happen when one team spends draft capital on 20-21yo former rd 1 picks and the other team's contingent is decimated by injuries(Gibcus, Clarke, Rioli Jnr, Ross) and those that do play are playing amongst turmoil because the rest of the team is also smashed by injuries.

Give knee injuries to DeKoning and say Jhye Clark and throw the rest of yours into a team missing half its best players and give us Ross, Rioli Jnr, Gibcus and Jud Clarke off full pre-seasons and fully fit and how do you think it would look.

Tigers have got other players 22 and under who haven't been able to get a run at it either that look promising, Trezise, Bauer, Smith. There is a long long way to go before you can start declaring your rebuild past the post, even based on the performance of your 23 and under players. But when you start throwing in the little add on of your mid 20's guys into your posts, you need to compare them against the Tigers mid 20's contingent. And the Richmond lot are a clear class above.

I'm glad you at least gave this a go, but all you needed was the bolded.

My comment was merely that Geelong's 24-26 year olds are having a more decisive effect on our games than 2-5 years ago, where we were very much carried by almost 10 veterans all playing to a high standard. Stengle has been the best forward pocket in the comp. Miers in the best few half forward link players in the comp. Zuthrie has been a very good performer at half back. And when Bowes has played well this season, our winning record has been very good (hopefully he truly builds consistency now). Close is quietly getting on with his 2.3 goals/assists and 5.4 score involvements a game. Mannagh is a live wire. So yes, they are giving us plenty.