Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[PhatBoy]

You guys were boasting about your ability to bounce up the ladder....

Yep. Which is hard to do when you’re regularly near the top of it

 

[Mr Meow]

But Richmond got belted in a Prelim and won the next 2 flags with a leg in the air. That is a what a proper Prelim belting bounce back looks like.

So one side had a prelim loss and then went back to back.

I’m not sure if it’s patronising to explain to you that a sample size of one can’t be used as hard evidence for anything. They didn’t bounce back from their 4 elimination final losses the next season. They didn’t after their 2001 prelim thrashing. They have not managed to return to finals after falling out in 2023.


Richmond’s history is of peaking and then returning to the abyss for extended periods. Not bouncing back when people have written them off after a poor season.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Interesting that Richmond had 12 players from the 2020 GF running around in the last round and lost at home to Gold Coast.

Geelong only had 9 left from the 2020 GF in their QF thumping of Port.

Between quality players that were already on the list developing (Z Guthrie, Close and Atkins) and outstanding recruiting (Dempsey, Holmes, Mullin, Stengle, Mannagh, Neale, Cameron, O Henry, Bowes, Humphries and Bruhn) it's been a great effort to turn over the list and be in contention so quickly.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Amusingly Geelong had more players under 23 in the QF (Holmes, Dempsey, Neale, Humphries, Bruhn and O Henry) than Richmond in round 24 (Bauer, Banks, Rioli, Ralphsmith and Campbell).

 

[Sttew]

And none of them will play in the 2024 Grand Final.

I wouldn't be foolish like you and make an ill informed prediction based purely on hatred and irrational emotion.

But there a few stats in Cats favour. Of the 11 teams since 2000 to win a qualifying final by 50+ points, all 11 have reached the GF, and 8 have gone onto win the GF, including Geelong 2007 (ironically, Tigers were wooden spooners in 2007 too)

 

[Mr Meow]

Amusingly Geelong had more players under 23 in the QF (Holmes, Dempsey, Neale, Humphries, Bruhn and O Henry) than Richmond in round 24 (Bauer, Banks, Rioli, Ralphsmith and Campbell).

You can use all the clever words and tricks you like.

Once Selwood, Smith, Hawkins, Rohan, Cam Guthrie and Stewart aren't carrying this team there is not a chance Geelong will be capable of winning finals. The only decent young player you have is De Koning - if he misses then the Cats will crumble. Tuohy, Duncan, Stanley, Blicavs and Bews would be leading the Cats B&F so far this season. Where is the next generation of stars going to come from?

 

[sr36]

So we’ve bounced backwards from last year by going from 12th to 3rd, at worst. That’s an interesting concept

You finish 4th if both you and Sydney lose your prelims. Not that it diminishes your point at all.

 

[PhatBoy]

You finish 4th if both you and Sydney lose your prelims. Not that it diminishes your point at all.

Yeah fair enough if the giants went through and Sydney didn’t you’d be correct.

 

[sr36]

Yeah fair enough if the giants went through and Sydney didn’t you’d be correct.

Wouldn't actually matter whether it was Giants/Brisbane/Haw/ who went through - Grand finalists are one and two and then Sydney would be ranked above you if you both lose. Not sure but I'm assuming you'd now be ranked above Port if you and Port both lost prelims, but it might go on Home and Away ladder position. You'd need to check past draft picks and match it to outcomes to see.

 

[Bring back Moloney]

Gee whiz there’s some really pointless, irrelevant and tiresome back & forths going on in here…

Simple fact is, Richmond have fallen off a Mt Everest sized cliff, with essentially zero exciting young talent, players abandoning ship all over the place, a wooden spoon, and barely a glimmer of hope for the near future.

Meanwhile, Geelong, written off once again at the start of the year, finished top 4, belted Port Adelaide on the road, cruised into another prelim, have a wealth of exciting young talent and look poised for another crack at a premiership.

There’s really no discussion required here. Good luck, Tiges.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Gee whiz there’s some really pointless, irrelevant and tiresome back & forths going on in here…

Simple fact is, Richmond have fallen off a Mt Everest sized cliff, with essentially zero exciting young talent, players abandoning ship all over the place, a wooden spoon, and barely a glimmer of hope for the near future.

Meanwhile, Geelong, written off once again at the start of the year, finished top 4, belted Port Adelaide on the road, cruised into another prelim, have a wealth of exciting young talent and look poised for another crack at a premiership.

There’s really no discussion required here. Good luck, Tiges.

Yep. Therefore the ignorant ####heads that remain here shift talk to the past and the imaginary good players they are to get in the future. Pathetic but all they have when in a year they thought they'd be as good or better than us they've won a spoon and we have a home prelim.

 

[Sttew]

My hatred of Geelong is on record, they are putrid. But my prediction is based on dispassionate analysis.

Dispassionate analysis? You wouldn't know what it was if it but you on the arse. You are a bitter and twisted poster who puts the majority of Tigers posters to shame with the garbage you post. Hiding behind thesis like "research" where, for example, you grade premierships according to divisions like it is some accepted factual criteria. Only in your small mind. You've even had fellow Tigers posters tell you to stop conjuring up conspiracy theories. Enough said

 

[DanA]

What are we even argue at this point?

You look at Geelong's team:

FB: Mullins DeKoning Kolodjashnij
HB: Humphries J.Henry Z.Guthrie
C: Dempsey Bruhn Kneviit
HF: Miers O.Henry Mannagh
FF: Stengle Neale Close
R: Conway, Bowes, Holmes
IC: Clark, Clohesy, O'Sullivan, ??

The players in bold played in our pre-lim domination over Port with all of the others seeing game time over the course of the season and looking the part. Now I get that Dangerfield was important to the midfield and is in his twilight but he only played 68% game time, and some of that up forward...it can't be all attributed to him.

Simply put, Geelong have a good young nucleus to build on.....Richmond haven't shown that at this stage. We'll need to find a key forward to replace Cameron, and beef up the midfield but it looks more like we have to finish off with a few strategic brush strokes while Richmond have a blank canvas.

 

[Ralll]

Staying clear of the &^# people from both sides in this thread, the Richmond ones who think there's an argument to be made, and the Geelong people who believe they are superior because a sports team they do not influence is currently successful.
It has been a remarkable performance from the Geelong hierarchy to rebuild on the run so well. I'm not sure if they are just using their geographical location to its fullest, or if their ability to spot talent and develop is so superior to the rest of the comp, but it is impressive to say the least.

 

[STPer18]

Wow, Max Holmes franked his blistering home and away season form with a perfect BoG showing in an interstate final. That's some seriously exciting youth!

 

[catstorm]

You wouldn't have got both - you can't trade up to get ahead of pick 1 - but you probably would have had an extra couple of first round picks the following year as a result of trading down pick 7 a couple of times.

It wouldn't have been pick 1 though.

It's not happened before so why attribute something that has never happened to Geelong just to reinforce your argument?

No one took Darcy, Daicos, or Ashcroft with Pick 1, so why assign it to Hawkins.

Geelong had 1350 points outside of pick 7.

If Hawkins went at 2 they would need 2013, which being an additional 663 points is pick 28.
If at 3 1787 only need another 437 points so pick 39.
If at 4 it's only 1627 or 277 extra points pick 49.

You really feel Geelong couldn't come up with some kind of a trade to get those picks and still keep 7?

 

[sr36]

It wouldn't have been pick 1 though.

It's not happened before so why attribute something that has never happened to Geelong just to reinforce your argument?

No one took Darcy, Daicos, or Ashcroft with Pick 1, so why assign it to Hawkins.

Geelong had 1350 points outside of pick 7.

If Hawkins went at 2 they would need 2013, which being an additional 663 points is pick 28.
If at 3 1787 only need another 437 points so pick 39.
If at 4 it's only 1627 or 277 extra points pick 49.

You really feel Geelong couldn't come up with some kind of a trade to get those picks and still keep 7?

And Collingwood, Dogs and Brisbane didn't take a pick before these guys were taken. What's the earliest matched pick that someone has gotten ahead of? GWS traded up to about pick 3 to make sure they got ahead of a bid for Tom Green - cost them an arm and a leg. Can't think of any others, so you're actually the one relying on something that has never occurred.

And no you can't match with later picks and use an earlier pick that you've kept. The rules don't allow it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Interesting to have a look at the performances of the much feted "young" Geelong players in the finals series, particularly in the competitive Preliminary Final.

So focussing on players 24yo or under.....

24yo Mullin - Very quiet QF v Port rating 2.2, but I thought he seemed to stand up ok in the PF v Brisbane where he rated a respectable 9.1. That last performance will give him some hope for the future, but overall so far at AFL level his performances have been weak. His average rating in 2024 was 5.46 with 74% time on ground.

23yo Sam DeKoning - Overlooked for both finals when reported to be fit and available, rated what on the face of it looks a respectable 9.31 in 2024, but this was boosted by playing roughly 1/3rd of his TOG in the ruck, where he was trounced by opponents performing much stronger. He was bordering on poor in defence. The Cats will be hoping missing selection in finals will spur him on to a better level. With his body type he should have firther upside at this age, but has not proven the prodigious talent cats fans thought they were seeing develop in 2022.

22yo Bruhn - The Cats traded out a pick that ended up at 21 for this bloke. GWS duly snapped up Darcy Jones with that pick. he played 17 games at 61% TOG this season so his durability and stamina looks a bit of an issue at this point. His average rating in 2024 was 9.32, which is not dire but is pretty weak for a starting midfielder. His defensive numbers look ok but his offensive work seems a non event at this stage of proceedings. Rated a decent 13.4 in the QF but went missing with a 10 disposal 4.6 rating in the PF against much stronger opposition. That performance does not look good, but at 22yo still has potential upside. Weak in contested possessions and especially hard ball gets.

22yo Shannon Neale - 4 years in the system now, but should still be plenty of upside there. At times I look at this guy and think I can see a footballer. His player rating of 6.67 from 80% TOG in 2024 is on the low side even for a young key forward, but by no means dire. It is boosted by spending a little time in the ruck. He rated 7.1 in the QF and a poor 2.4 in the PF. There is certainly nothing to write home about at this stage for Neale.

22yo O Henry - Has had a really poor H&A season capped by a very strong finals series. His season average player rating is 6.81. Cats gave up Cooper Stephens + a pick that ended up at 28(Jakob Ryan) in the 2022 draft to get Henry. Releasing Stephens won't embarass the Cats as he has just been delisted by the Hawks. Back to Henry, his finals ratings were 12.0 and 15.4 which were strong, as he recorded 7 goals + assists, 27 disposals and 16 contested possessions across the 2 matches. Very encouraging finals performances, but with the poor overall season, we need to reserve judgement until we can see which of the 2 indicators is more true.

22yo Holmes - Has had a tremendous season franked by 2 very strong finals performances. Has some weaknesses he could tidy up with his disposal, but overall the Cats would be delighted with how he is progressing, though maybe slightly concerned about his hamstring issues, given they have somehow emerged twice in his last 2 Preliminary Finals.

21yo Dempsey - Very solid season for a winger, averaging 9.82 player rating overall from a high 87% TOG. Gets involved in a fair bit of the Cats scoring. Had a reasonable QF rating 10.3 but not really a factor in the PF, and doesn't exactly rush into oncoming traffic when it is his turn, which he will need to fix if he is going to do better in finals against strong opposition.

21yo Humphries - Cats will be rapt with his 11 games averaging 10.95 player rating. And 2 finals of 10.5 and 12.4. Looks a great get with a late draft pick, but I will reserve more definite judgement until he gets through a whole season after others teams have gone to college on him.

21yo Conway - young ruck not seen in finals due to injury and likely wouldn't have been selected anyway. Give him 2-3 years yet before we can start judging him fairly.

20yo Jhye Clark - Pick 8 in the 2022 draft. Didn't look like being selected in the finals. Very young still but probably fair to say he is not living up to anywhere near his billing at this point of his career. Cats will be concerned, but a long way to go for him.

So of these players, only Holmes has had a good whole home & away season + 2 good finals. Henry played really well in the finals, but had a poor home and away season. Dempsey had a decent home and away season but was a bit disappointing in that PF. DeKoning, Neale, Mullin, Clark, Bruhn, Conway....still good upside in most of these guys but in 2024 none of them has had much impact. Humphries very good but only 11 games in so see how he goes next year.

Overall though, I am not sure the Cats youngsters are progressing quite as well as is generally believed.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Overall though, I am not sure the Cats youngsters are progressing quite as well as is generally believed.

I'll be honest I'm truly shocked you came to that conclusion.

Feel like repeating that for the Richmond youngsters? If you do the H&A reviews I'll work on the finals.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Interesting to have a look at the performances of the much feted "young" Geelong players in the finals series, particularly in the competitive Preliminary Final.

So focussing on players 24yo or under.....

24yo Mullin - Very quiet QF v Port rating 2.2, but I thought he seemed to stand up ok in the PF v Brisbane where he rated a respectable 9.1. That last performance will give him some hope for the future, but overall so far at AFL level his performances have been weak. His average rating in 2024 was 5.46 with 74% time on ground.

23yo Sam DeKoning - Overlooked for both finals when reported to be fit and available, rated what on the face of it looks a respectable 9.31 in 2024, but this was boosted by playing roughly 1/3rd of his TOG in the ruck, where he was trounced by opponents performing much stronger. He was bordering on poor in defence. The Cats will be hoping missing selection in finals will spur him on to a better level. With his body type he should have firther upside at this age, but has not proven the prodigious talent cats fans thought they were seeing develop in 2022.

22yo Bruhn - The Cats traded out a pick that ended up at 21 for this bloke. GWS duly snapped up Darcy Jones with that pick. he played 17 games at 61% TOG this season so his durability and stamina looks a bit of an issue at this point. His average rating in 2024 was 9.32, which is not dire but is pretty weak for a starting midfielder. His defensive numbers look ok but his offensive work seems a non event at this stage of proceedings. Rated a decent 13.4 in the QF but went missing with a 10 disposal 4.6 rating in the PF against much stronger opposition. That performance does not look good, but at 22yo still has potential upside. Weak in contested possessions and especially hard ball gets.

22yo Shannon Neale - 4 years in the system now, but should still be plenty of upside there. At times I look at this guy and think I can see a footballer. His player rating of 6.67 from 80% TOG in 2024 is on the low side even for a young key forward, but by no means dire. It is boosted by spending a little time in the ruck. He rated 7.1 in the QF and a poor 2.4 in the PF. There is certainly nothing to write home about at this stage for Neale.

22yo O Henry - Has had a really poor H&A season capped by a very strong finals series. His season average player rating is 6.81. Cats gave up Cooper Stephens + a pick that ended up at 28(Jakob Ryan) in the 2022 draft to get Henry. Releasing Stephens won't embarass the Cats as he has just been delisted by the Hawks. Back to Henry, his finals ratings were 12.0 and 15.4 which were strong, as he recorded 7 goals + assists, 27 disposals and 16 contested possessions across the 2 matches. Very encouraging finals performances, but with the poor overall season, we need to reserve judgement until we can see which of the 2 indicators is more true.

22yo Holmes - Has had a tremendous season franked by 2 very strong finals performances. Has some weaknesses he could tidy up with his disposal, but overall the Cats would be delighted with how he is progressing, though maybe slightly concerned about his hamstring issues, given they have somehow emerged twice in his last 2 Preliminary Finals.

21yo Dempsey - Very solid season for a winger, averaging 9.82 player rating overall from a high 87% TOG. Gets involved in a fair bit of the Cats scoring. Had a reasonable QF rating 10.3 but not really a factor in the PF, and doesn't exactly rush into oncoming traffic when it is his turn, which he will need to fix if he is going to do better in finals against strong opposition.

21yo Humphries - Cats will be rapt with his 11 games averaging 10.95 player rating. And 2 finals of 10.5 and 12.4. Looks a great get with a late draft pick, but I will reserve more definite judgement until he gets through a whole season after others teams have gone to college on him.

21yo Conway - young ruck not seen in finals due to injury and likely wouldn't have been selected anyway. Give him 2-3 years yet before we can start judging him fairly.

20yo Jhye Clark - Pick 8 in the 2022 draft. Didn't look like being selected in the finals. Very young still but probably fair to say he is not living up to anywhere near his billing at this point of his career. Cats will be concerned, but a long way to go for him.

So of these players, only Holmes has had a good whole home & away season + 2 good finals. Henry played really well in the finals, but had a poor home and away season. Dempsey had a decent home and away season but was a bit disappointing in that PF. DeKoning, Neale, Mullin, Clark, Bruhn, Conway....still good upside in most of these guys but in 2024 none of them has had much impact. Humphries very good but only 11 games in so see how he goes next year.

Overall though, I am not sure the Cats youngsters are progressing quite as well as is generally believed.

tl;dr

 

[Wojcinski]

tl;dr

tl;dr is every single Geelong player 24 and under is already ahead of every single Richmond player in the same age group. Dire future for the Tigers

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lol Cats fans don't want to talk in any depth about all their exciting youngsters any more given most of them missed selection or turned in shockers in the Preliminary Final.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Lol Cats fans don't want to talk in any depth about all their exciting youngsters any more given most of them missed selection or turned in shockers in the Preliminary Final.

Knew you'd give me an abridged version eventually.

 

[STPer18]

Is it true that Tanner Bruhn polled more votes last night than anyone on Richmond's list?

 

[Pomsta]

Is it true that Tanner Bruhn polled more votes last night than anyone on Richmond's list?

After seeing some of the votes that the umps gave they probably mixed him up with Max Holmes.