Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?


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Also in their bounce backwards ability.
But we aren't in the Richmond league of bouncing backwards. Can't go any further south than wooden spoon!

FYI, only 13 players out of the 22 in the side that beat Port Power on Thursday played in the 2022 GF
 
:) So we’ve bounced backwards from last year by going from 12th to 3rd, at worst. That’s an interesting concept

Geelong Cats FC has improved it's position on the ladder 6 times since 2007 when compared to the previous season.

Richmond Tigers FC has done it 7 times.

I think we can all see how is better at bouncing up the ladder. :cool:
 

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Geelong Cats FC has improved it's position on the ladder 6 times since 2007 when compared to the previous season.

Richmond Tigers FC has done it 7 times.

I think we can all see how is better at bouncing up the ladder. :cool:
It’s hard to improve ladder position when you are consistently top 4.

The point was what happens to Geelong and Richmond the year after they miss finals from 2004 onwards. The Cats have won a premiership, made a prelim and made a prelim (maybe more).

The seasons they have been truly belted in a prelim, well on two of those occasions they won a flag the next year (2011 and 2022).

When they finish 5th to 8th they do okay the next year. After 2012, a year later they lost a prelim by just a goal. After 2018 it was a similar story.

At all of these points the side has been written off, the era declared over. Each time they bounce back.
 
It’s hard to improve ladder position when you are consistently top 4.

The point was what happens to Geelong and Richmond the year after they miss finals from 2004 onwards. The Cats have won a premiership, made a prelim and made a prelim (maybe more).

The seasons they have been truly belted in a prelim, well on two of those occasions they won a flag the next year (2011 and 2022).

When they finish 5th to 8th they do okay the next year. After 2012, a year later they lost a prelim by just a goal. After 2018 it was a similar story.

At all of these points the side has been written off, the era declared over. Each time they bounce back.

But Richmond got belted in a Prelim and won the next 2 flags with a leg in the air. That is a what a proper Prelim belting bounce back looks like.
 
But Richmond got belted in a Prelim and won the next 2 flags with a leg in the air. That is a what a proper Prelim belting bounce back looks like.
So one side had a prelim loss and then went back to back.

I’m not sure if it’s patronising to explain to you that a sample size of one can’t be used as hard evidence for anything. They didn’t bounce back from their 4 elimination final losses the next season. They didn’t after their 2001 prelim thrashing. They have not managed to return to finals after falling out in 2023.


Richmond’s history is of peaking and then returning to the abyss for extended periods. Not bouncing back when people have written them off after a poor season.
 
Interesting that Richmond had 12 players from the 2020 GF running around in the last round and lost at home to Gold Coast.

Geelong only had 9 left from the 2020 GF in their QF thumping of Port.

Between quality players that were already on the list developing (Z Guthrie, Close and Atkins) and outstanding recruiting (Dempsey, Holmes, Mullin, Stengle, Mannagh, Neale, Cameron, O Henry, Bowes, Humphries and Bruhn) it's been a great effort to turn over the list and be in contention so quickly.
 
And none of them will play in the 2024 Grand Final.
I wouldn't be foolish like you and make an ill informed prediction based purely on hatred and irrational emotion.

But there a few stats in Cats favour. Of the 11 teams since 2000 to win a qualifying final by 50+ points, all 11 have reached the GF, and 8 have gone onto win the GF, including Geelong 2007 (ironically, Tigers were wooden spooners in 2007 too)
 
Amusingly Geelong had more players under 23 in the QF (Holmes, Dempsey, Neale, Humphries, Bruhn and O Henry) than Richmond in round 24 (Bauer, Banks, Rioli, Ralphsmith and Campbell).
You can use all the clever words and tricks you like.

Once Selwood, Smith, Hawkins, Rohan, Cam Guthrie and Stewart aren't carrying this team there is not a chance Geelong will be capable of winning finals. The only decent young player you have is De Koning - if he misses then the Cats will crumble. Tuohy, Duncan, Stanley, Blicavs and Bews would be leading the Cats B&F so far this season. Where is the next generation of stars going to come from?
 

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Yeah fair enough if the giants went through and Sydney didn’t you’d be correct.
Wouldn't actually matter whether it was Giants/Brisbane/Haw/ who went through - Grand finalists are one and two and then Sydney would be ranked above you if you both lose. Not sure but I'm assuming you'd now be ranked above Port if you and Port both lost prelims, but it might go on Home and Away ladder position. You'd need to check past draft picks and match it to outcomes to see.
 
Gee whiz there’s some really pointless, irrelevant and tiresome back & forths going on in here…

Simple fact is, Richmond have fallen off a Mt Everest sized cliff, with essentially zero exciting young talent, players abandoning ship all over the place, a wooden spoon, and barely a glimmer of hope for the near future.

Meanwhile, Geelong, written off once again at the start of the year, finished top 4, belted Port Adelaide on the road, cruised into another prelim, have a wealth of exciting young talent and look poised for another crack at a premiership.

There’s really no discussion required here. Good luck, Tiges.
 
Gee whiz there’s some really pointless, irrelevant and tiresome back & forths going on in here…

Simple fact is, Richmond have fallen off a Mt Everest sized cliff, with essentially zero exciting young talent, players abandoning ship all over the place, a wooden spoon, and barely a glimmer of hope for the near future.

Meanwhile, Geelong, written off once again at the start of the year, finished top 4, belted Port Adelaide on the road, cruised into another prelim, have a wealth of exciting young talent and look poised for another crack at a premiership.

There’s really no discussion required here. Good luck, Tiges.

Yep. Therefore the ignorant ####heads that remain here shift talk to the past and the imaginary good players they are to get in the future. Pathetic but all they have when in a year they thought they'd be as good or better than us they've won a spoon and we have a home prelim.
 
My hatred of Geelong is on record, they are putrid. But my prediction is based on dispassionate analysis.
Dispassionate analysis? You wouldn't know what it was if it but you on the arse. You are a bitter and twisted poster who puts the majority of Tigers posters to shame with the garbage you post. Hiding behind thesis like "research" where, for example, you grade premierships according to divisions like it is some accepted factual criteria. Only in your small mind. You've even had fellow Tigers posters tell you to stop conjuring up conspiracy theories. Enough said
 
What are we even argue at this point?

You look at Geelong's team:

FB: Mullins DeKoning Kolodjashnij
HB: Humphries J.Henry Z.Guthrie
C: Dempsey Bruhn Kneviit
HF: Miers O.Henry Mannagh
FF: Stengle Neale Close
R: Conway, Bowes, Holmes
IC: Clark, Clohesy, O'Sullivan, ??

The players in bold played in our pre-lim domination over Port with all of the others seeing game time over the course of the season and looking the part. Now I get that Dangerfield was important to the midfield and is in his twilight but he only played 68% game time, and some of that up forward...it can't be all attributed to him.

Simply put, Geelong have a good young nucleus to build on.....Richmond haven't shown that at this stage. We'll need to find a key forward to replace Cameron, and beef up the midfield but it looks more like we have to finish off with a few strategic brush strokes while Richmond have a blank canvas.
 
Staying clear of the &^# people from both sides in this thread, the Richmond ones who think there's an argument to be made, and the Geelong people who believe they are superior because a sports team they do not influence is currently successful.
It has been a remarkable performance from the Geelong hierarchy to rebuild on the run so well. I'm not sure if they are just using their geographical location to its fullest, or if their ability to spot talent and develop is so superior to the rest of the comp, but it is impressive to say the least.
 
You wouldn't have got both - you can't trade up to get ahead of pick 1 - but you probably would have had an extra couple of first round picks the following year as a result of trading down pick 7 a couple of times.
It wouldn't have been pick 1 though.

It's not happened before so why attribute something that has never happened to Geelong just to reinforce your argument?

No one took Darcy, Daicos, or Ashcroft with Pick 1, so why assign it to Hawkins.

Geelong had 1350 points outside of pick 7.

If Hawkins went at 2 they would need 2013, which being an additional 663 points is pick 28.
If at 3 1787 only need another 437 points so pick 39.
If at 4 it's only 1627 or 277 extra points pick 49.

You really feel Geelong couldn't come up with some kind of a trade to get those picks and still keep 7?
 
It wouldn't have been pick 1 though.

It's not happened before so why attribute something that has never happened to Geelong just to reinforce your argument?

No one took Darcy, Daicos, or Ashcroft with Pick 1, so why assign it to Hawkins.

Geelong had 1350 points outside of pick 7.

If Hawkins went at 2 they would need 2013, which being an additional 663 points is pick 28.
If at 3 1787 only need another 437 points so pick 39.
If at 4 it's only 1627 or 277 extra points pick 49.

You really feel Geelong couldn't come up with some kind of a trade to get those picks and still keep 7?

And Collingwood, Dogs and Brisbane didn't take a pick before these guys were taken. What's the earliest matched pick that someone has gotten ahead of? GWS traded up to about pick 3 to make sure they got ahead of a bid for Tom Green - cost them an arm and a leg. Can't think of any others, so you're actually the one relying on something that has never occurred.

And no you can't match with later picks and use an earlier pick that you've kept. The rules don't allow it.
 

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Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

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