Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Taper]

With both clubs finishing bottom 4 this year and at the beginning of their rebuilds, this is sure to be a hot topic in coming years.

Both topped up in recent years to try and stay up and pinch another flag, only to fall short in doing so and are now beginning to pay the price for selling all their draft capital.

West Coast sold the farm for Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

.
Richmond sold the farm for Taranto and Hopper.

Right now, you have to say West Coast have better youth because of Harley Reid, who is set to become a generational superstar.
However, this can easily change if Reid heads home to Victoria.

Who do you think is more likely to bounce back into premiership contention first?
Who do you think has the better youth prospects?
West Coast or Richmond?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

With both clubs finishing bottom 4 this year and at the beginning of their rebuilds, this is sure to be a hot topic in coming years.

Both topped up in recent years to try and stay up and pinch another flag, only to fall short in doing so and are now beginning to pay the price for selling all their draft capital.

West Coast sold the farm for Tim Kelly.
Richmond sold the farm for Taranto and Hopper.

Right now, you have to say West Coast have better youth because of Harley Reid, who is set to become a generational superstar.
However, this can easily change if Reid heads home to Victoria.

Who do you think is more likely to bounce back into premiership contention first?
Who do you think has the better youth prospects?
West Coast or Richmond?

Ludicrous thread. both very strong clubs with strong history of building Premiership teams.

Richmond is not at the start of a rebuild unless they start trading out the many valuable 24-27yo players they have, Balta, Bolton, D Rioli, Baker, Graham, Taranto, Hopper, Miller etc. There is only one single reason Richmond are in line for such a high draft pick, and that is due to having an incredibly bad run of injuries to both key players and an unusually high volume of players. Richmond also has latent talent amongst its young cohort, but some of the best of these M Rioli, Gibcus, Clarke, Ross have missed most of the season injured, causing people like you to be fooled about where the list is. Richmond needs a couple of high end mids and/or forwards and they are likely to acquire one or more of these in the coming draft.

Eagles will know they need to build a team of the future, one look at their 23-28yo players tells you that. They need to find a couple of strong free agents or trades in this age bracket and then carry on drafting high end young players to build their future team.

Completely different scenarios.

 

[Bigger]

Richmond have had an outrageous run of injury but you are mistaken if you don’t think you’re in for a rebuild.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond have had an outrageous run of injury but you are mistaken if you don’t think you’re in for a rebuild.

I don't think Richmond are thinking one thing or the other. They will let valuable players go if they get he right deals, they will hold onto them if they don't. If Richmond had an average run with injuries nobody would be talking rebuilds. If they had a good run with injuries they could easily be hanging around the top 6.

A club who needs to find around 2-3 key players is not a club who needs to rebuild.

 

[Farang83150]

strong history of building Premiership teams.

Hmmmm....

 

[Boomer93]

Ludicrous thread. both very strong clubs with strong history of building Premiership teams.

Richmond is not at the start of a rebuild unless they start trading out the many valuable 24-27yo players they have, Balta, Bolton, D Rioli, Baker, Graham, Taranto, Hopper, Miller etc. There is only one single reason Richmond are in line for such a high draft pick, and that is due to having an incredibly bad run of injuries to both key players and an unusually high volume of players. Richmond also has latent talent amongst its young cohort, but some of the best of these M Rioli, Gibcus, Clarke, Ross have missed most of the season injured, causing people like you to be fooled about where the list is. Richmond needs a couple of high end mids and/or forwards and they are likely to acquire one or more of these in the coming draft.

Eagles will know they need to build a team of the future, one look at their 23-28yo players tells you that. They need to find a couple of strong free agents or trades in this age bracket and then carry on drafting high end young players to build their future team.

Completely different scenarios.

The extreme injury crisis sounds a lot like what happened to the eagles at the start of their downfall.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The extreme injury crisis sounds a lot like what happened to the eagles at the start of their downfall.

The injury run is very similar in terms of the magnitutde of injuries. Richmond will possibly miss more games from their best 22 by season's end, but haven't had to cope with what the Eagles went through of blokes playing in the AFL team who had never even met each other.

But in terms of the respective future teams, let's make the cutoff of 27yo, and say those guys if good enough are still likely to be playing in 5 years time. Here is the 23-27yo and below Eagles list in 2022, so these are the prime aged footballers that are still likely to be playing in 5 years time:



They traded out Rioli at the end of 2022. So the strong, proven players they carried forward from this group were:

Kelly Sheed Barass Ryan Waterman Allen Duggan (W Rioli, traded out when his stocks weren't especially high.)

It is actually a decent but small core that should be leading their team now, but they have rarely all been fit and firing at the same time, which has restricted the Eagles performance somewhat.

We can contrast that with the Richmond group:



Richmond has Hopper, D Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Balta, Bolton who are proven long term strong players. So probably a similar group to what the Eagles had. Richmond also have Lefau, Miller and Ross who look up to being long termers.

Where Eagles had Cole, Petrucelle, Witherden, Rotham, so I guess it is fair to say the Eagles in 2022 roughly matched Richmond 2024 in this age bracket of the list.

Where there might be a bit of difference in the 2 lists is the Eagles 22 and under players in 2022 compared to the Tigers 22 and under players in 2024.

Richmond have Maurice Rioli, and the 5 promising players from the 2021 draft, Gibcus, Brown, Clarke, Sonsie, Banks. It must be said Gibcus and Clarke have current ACL's and Sonsie is struggling at the moment, but most younger players have ups and down in form. Campbell also looks very promising given he is still 19. Ralphsmith seems to be establishing himself on a wing. There are a few others lurking around in this age group who are too early to get a solid line on. Some of Blight, Trezise, Gray, Greeen, Smith, McAuliffe, Fawcett will emerge, but of course all clubs including the Eagles have these type of prospects on their list.

Below is the 22yo and under contingent the Eagles had on their list in 2022. I think it is not unfair to say it is neither as strong or numerous as what Richmond has right now in 2024:



Eagles were a year away from adding Harley Reid, but they did split their pick 3 in 2022 to get Ginbey at 9 and Hewett at 14. Richmond look poised to take a stronger group of players in 2024 than Eagles took in 2022, though that is yet to be proven of course.

So I can actually see some similarities in how the two lists(Eagles 2022, Tigers 2024) were set up for the future, but the Tigers probably have a bit more young talent than Eagles had in 2022. Eagles injury troubles didn't end in 2022 either, where with the Tigers, this is yet to be seen.

 

[Boomer93]

The injury run is very similar in terms of the magnitutde of injuries. Richmond will possibly miss more games from their best 22 by season's end, but haven't had to cope with what the Eagles went through of blokes playing in the AFL team who had never even met each other.

But in terms of the respective future teams, let's make the cutoff of 27yo, and say those guys if good enough are still likely to be playing in 5 years time. Here is the 23-27yo and below Eagles list in 2022, so these are the prime aged footballers that are still likely to be playing in 5 years time:

View attachment 2064146

They traded out Rioli at the end of 2022. So the strong, proven players they carried forward from this group were:

Kelly Sheed Barass Ryan Waterman Allen Duggan (W Rioli, traded out when his stocks weren't especially high.)

It is actually a decent but small core that should be leading their team now, but they have rarely all been fit and firing at the same time, which has restricted the Eagles performance somewhat.

We can contrast that with the Richmond group:

View attachment 2064157

Richmond has Hopper, D Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Balta, Bolton who are proven long term strong players. So probably a similar group to what the Eagles had. Richmond also have Lefau, Miller and Ross who look up to being long termers.

Where Eagles had Cole, Petrucelle, Witherden, Rotham, so I guess it is fair to say the Eagles in 2022 roughly matched Richmond 2024 in this age bracket of the list.

Where there might be a bit of difference in the 2 lists is the Eagles 22 and under players in 2022 compared to the Tigers 22 and under players in 2024.

Richmond have Maurice Rioli, and the 5 promising players from the 2021 draft, Gibcus, Brown, Clarke, Sonsie, Banks. It must be said Gibcus and Clarke have current ACL's and Sonsie is struggling at the moment, but most younger players have ups and down in form. Campbell also looks very promising given he is still 19. Ralphsmith seems to be establishing himself on a wing. There are a few others lurking around in this age group who are too early to get a solid line on. Some of Blight, Trezise, Gray, Greeen, Smith, McAuliffe, Fawcett will emerge, but of course all clubs including the Eagles have these type of prospects on their list.

Below is the 22yo and under contingent the Eagles had on their list in 2022. I think it is not unfair to say it is neither as strong or numerous as what Richmond has right now in 2024:

View attachment 2064257

Eagles were a year away from adding Harley Reid, but they did split their pick 3 in 2022 to get Ginbey at 9 and Hewett at 14. Richmond look poised to take a stronger group of players in 2024 than Eagles took in 2022, though that is yet to be proven of course.

So I can actually see some similarities in how the two lists(Eagles 2022, Tigers 2024) were set up for the future, but the Tigers probably have a bit more young talent than Eagles had in 2022. Eagles injury troubles didn't end in 2022 either, where with the Tigers, this is yet to be seen.

You guys have an edge in playing list for sure, but the gap isn't that large. Baker looks certain to leave.

I doubt that you guys end up in as bad of a hole the eagles have, I mean they have been one of the worst sides across the last few years as we have ever seen, but imo you guys are heading towards a rebuild, and with Tasmania coming in I would be getting desperate with the trades to avoid an eagles style hole after not trading out enough.

 

[adammania9]

I don't think Richmond are thinking one thing or the other. They will let valuable players go if they get he right deals, they will hold onto them if they don't. If Richmond had an average run with injuries nobody would be talking rebuilds. If they had a good run with injuries they could easily be hanging around the top 6.

A club who needs to find around 2-3 key players is not a club who needs to rebuild.

Do I understand this right? You believe Richmond would likely sit in the top half of the ladder with a good injury run? You can't possibly believe that would be the case.

 

[TigerTime88]

I don't think Richmond are thinking one thing or the other. They will let valuable players go if they get he right deals, they will hold onto them if they don't. If Richmond had an average run with injuries nobody would be talking rebuilds. If they had a good run with injuries they could easily be hanging around the top 6.

A club who needs to find around 2-3 key players is not a club who needs to rebuild.

You couldn't be more wrong.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You guys have an edge in playing list for sure, but the gap isn't that large. Baker looks certain to leave.

I doubt that you guys end up in as bad of a hole the eagles have, I mean they have been one of the worst sides across the last few years as we have ever seen, but imo you guys are heading towards a rebuild, and with Tasmania coming in I would be getting desperate with the trades to avoid an eagles style hole after not trading out enough.

If Richmond get the right deals for players like D Rioli, Baker, Graham, even possibly Bolton or Balta, and the players are open to going, I think they would rebuild but they would need to be really enticing deals. Otherwise it might be just something like Graham and Baker leaving for good picks and boost the future stocks a bit that way.

It is a very intriguing situation with Richmond. I would be pretty confident they wouldn't just say right now we are going into full rebuild mode. They will just follow the value with each offer and see where that takes them. The crux of it I think is Richmond are a couple of high class mids and a class key forward short in terms of building their future team. What they do have in some abundance is experienced tough quality running players and flankers like Baker, Rioli, Graham. They should be able to get a future gun mid and probably key forward from this draft as things stand. If they want a bit more high end talent in the key areas on the ground then releasing Baker, Graham, Rioli for eg will help them achieve that. If a critical mass of these players leave it could potentially tip someone like Bolton into wanting to go to a contending club like Fremantle and from there Richmond would just take the opportunity to try to get a whole new group of guns at the draft.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Do I understand this right? You believe Richmond would likely sit in the top half of the ladder with a good injury run? You can't possibly believe that would be the case.

Have a look at Hawthorn. Look at Fremantle. Look at Swans. Look at Geelong. These teams have had very good injury runs this year and are all sitting much higher on the ladder than expected. Richmond were expected to be mid table with an average injury run. So it is not difficult to work it out from there where you would expect them to be hovering if they had close to their best team out on the park fully fit most weeks like Hawks, Dockers, Swans, Cats.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You couldn't be more wrong.

Explain.

 

[adammania9]

Have a look at Hawthorn. Look at Fremantle. Look at Swans. These teams have had very good injury uns this year and are all sitting much higher on the ladder than expected. Richmond were expected to be mid table with an average injury run. So it is not difficult to work it out from there where you would expect them to be hovering if they had close to their best team out on the park fully fit most weeks like Hawks, Dockers, Swans.

Maybe by their own bullish supporters. The Tigers were a very common bottom four tip in pre-season.

Richmond have 2 wins and are an entire 7 wins off being out of the bottom four. They are 11 wins short of being in the top six. To suggest a bad injury run has been the difference between 2 wins and 12 is simply delusional.

 

[bzparkes]

Have a look at Hawthorn. Look at Fremantle. Look at Swans. Look at Geelong. These teams have had very good injury runs this year and are all sitting much higher on the ladder than expected. Richmond were expected to be mid table with an average injury run. So it is not difficult to work it out from there where you would expect them to be hovering if they had close to their best team out on the park fully fit most weeks like Hawks, Dockers, Swans, Cats.

You sound like WCE supporters from the past 2 seasons.

now with a good injury run, turns out we're just shit.

Richmond are the same.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Maybe by their own bullish supporters. The Tigers were a very common bottom four tip in pre-season.

Richmond have 2 wins and are an entire 7 wins off being out of the bottom four. They are 11 wins short of being in the top six. To suggest a bad injury run has been the difference between 2 wins and 12 is simply delusional.

Lol Richmond had 10.5 wins in 2023 with a worse than average run of key player injuries with a very similar list. So to project they could have 12 or more wins with a good run of availability in 2024 does not require you to be overly bullish at all.

Your won team has dropped about 12 positions on the ladder and will probably end up with 6-7 less wins with a run of injuries nowhere near what Richmond has suffered this year. So it is no stretch at all to say the difference between an all time shocking run of injuries and a dream run would be 10+ wins.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You sound like WCE supporters from the past 2 seasons.

now with a good injury run, turns out we're just shit.

Richmond are the same.

You haven't had a good injury run since the end of 2022 including this year. You've had 2 guys play every game and Barass is your only key player who hasn't missed a run of several games. You got your older layer of guns wiped out last year when Naitanui and Shuey couldn't get themselves right and needed to retire.

Richmond could go the same way but that is not certain by any means.

 

[adammania9]

Lol Richmond had 10.5 wins in 2023 with a worse than average run of key player injuries with a very similar list. So to project they could have 12 or more wins with a good run of availability in 2024 does not require you to be overly bullish at all.

Your won team has dropped about 12 positions on the ladder and will probably end up with 6-7 less wins with a run of injuries nowhere near what Richmond has suffered this year. So it is no stretch at all to say the difference between an all time shocking run of injuries and a dream run would be 10+ wins.

Richmond's list is poorer than it was last year. Missing on field leadership, and several premiership players have continued their decline, as older players tend to do. They would not be on track to win 10.5 games in 2024 if every player was available for every game. West Coast fans were in denial about how bad their list was in 2022-23 on the back of bad injury runs. A much better run this year and they're still firmly entrenched in the bottom three.

Richmond's list is bottom three. They are nowhere near finals with a good injury run. You're living in the past.

 

[bzparkes]

You haven't had a good injury run since the end of 2023 including this year. You've had 2 guys play every game and Barass is your only key player who hasn't missed a run of several games. You got your older layer of guns wiped out last year when Naitanui and Shuey couldn't get themselves right and needed to retire.

Richmond could go the same way but that is not certain by any means.

We had injuries since 2021. Our coach got stubborn and kept picking senior player who were returning from injury, which exacerbated the issues.

The reality was that the team had simply declined, as happens to all premiership sides.

We still have a bunch of B22 premiership players but playing like shit.

It happens and Richmond are lucky they now have a chance to act on it way earlier than WCE did.

 

[Grrr]

Do I understand this right? You believe Richmond would likely sit in the top half of the ladder with a good injury run? You can't possibly believe that would be the case.

It may or may not be the case as nobody can know one way or the other. But in the first half of the season we lost or have lost 10 players for the season, that is nearly a quarter of the list. That is not counting players who might make it back but haven't played since early in the season like Ross, Pickett and Rioli Jnr and. Two weeks ago we had 3 players playing VFL.
Even our midseason draft pick comes in plays 3 games, the last one probably best on about to make his debut, season ending hamstring.

Really hard to judge a team when half the list has barely played. I don't think we have had one player play every game this year.

The shining light is we got games into some young players, which we have not been able to do for years. Some of them have done very well and will be much better off going into next year. Plus about 8 picks under 50 in the draft this year.

 

[adammania9]

It may or may not be the case as nobody can know one way or the other. But in the first half of the season we lost or have lost 10 players for the season, that is nearly a quarter of the list. That is not counting players who might make it back but haven't played since early in the season like Ross, Pickett and Rioli Jnr and. Two weeks ago we had 3 players playing VFL.
Even our midseason draft pick comes in plays 3 games, the last one probably best on about to make his debut, season ending hamstring.

Really hard to judge a team when half the list has barely played. I don't think we have had one player play every game this year.

I agree it's rotten luck and we don't truly know where the list is currently at. But we can gauge that a team that came 13th last year and added only Jacob Koschitzke through trade and has countless premiership players on a steady decline, with a first year coach leading the way is absolutely nowhere near finals.

 

[Grrr]

I agree it's rotten luck and we don't truly know where the list is currently at. But we can gauge that a team that came 13th last year and added only Jacob Koschitzke through trade and has countless premiership players on a steady decline, with a first year coach leading the way is absolutely nowhere near finals.

Maybe so, but which players are exactly on the decline. Grimes and Prestia, but they have not been important for a couple of seasons, age, injury. Martin granted has been a big loss, but again has not played near his peak for at least 3 seasons. Cotchin and Riewoldt were shot last season, we have not missed them this season other than their leadership. Lynch, well who knows if he is in decline or not, hasn't been on the park for 2 seasons but is only 31 so not ancient. Technically yes a decline I guess.

Nankervis is having perhaps his best season. Vlastuin has been great. Rioli as well. Broad, our best on the weekend. Short has had a poor season but is only 28, so age not an issue. Other than that, our next senior players are Baker (26), MacIntosh and Graham (not best 22 next season, not many Richmond posters have them in the side this year much less next.)

It's hard to judge the young players because they are either too young or Hardwick wouldn't pick them. Look at Ralphsmith this year, most on here had him delisted, but could work his way into Top 5 in the B&F. Lefau looked good until injured. Often older players hold back the young ones, and that has certainly happened at Richmond.

Yes we lack some real A grade young player, but no.1 or 2 draft pick, plus possibly another early one if Baker goes. Plus a good draft hand in a very deep draft. Real quality youth can come on quickly, look at North's top 5 picks in the last year or two.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond's list is poorer than it was last year. Missing on field leadership, and several premiership players have continued their decline, as older players tend to do. They would not be on track to win 10.5 games in 2024 if every player was available for every game. West Coast fans were in denial about how bad their list was in 2022-23 on the back of bad injury runs. A much better run this year and they're still firmly entrenched in the bottom three.

Richmond's list is bottom three. They are nowhere near finals with a good injury run. You're living in the past.

FB GibcusX Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Vlastuin Short

C PickettX TarantoX Ralphsmith

HF MartinX M RioliX GrahamX

FF LefauX LynchX BaltaX

R Nankervis HopperX Bolton

I/C PrestiaX Brown RossX Baker 23rd Mansell

That would be something like the best 23 if they were all fit and firing. Only Martin, Prestia, Lynch maybe Broad are on the final stretch of their careers. Those marked with x and bolded have missed strings of matches with injury, all bar Balta of those basically having most of the season wiped out.

Other notable players seasons wrecked by injury: Grimes, Clarke, Young, Naismith

McIntosh not selected in this team, 29yo double flag player.

If you think if that team largely takes the field fit all season and Richmond are still finishing bottom 4 it is you who is deluded. There are weaknesses within that team but no more than most best 23's carry. And there are some serious weapons there that can hurt any team. There are 12 players bolded in that team and say leave Balta out of that group the rest have more or less had their seasons wrecked by injuries. That is half your best 22 including the majority of the most important players.

Players not named in that team above have played about 150 games between them this year, so far. That is about 8 every week on average. But it is not like it is the best 8 playing most of those games due to fringe players being injured, those games are spread between 18 players.

Whether any or all of those injured players are in some sort of terminal decline is speculation. All clubs have a couple of older players dropping away most years. But plenty of players in the last half or third of their careers come back from serious injuries or niggling issues.

If that team I named had an injury run say like Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle or Swans this season, how many games do you see them winning?

 

[adammania9]

Maybe so, but which players are exactly on the decline. Grimes and Prestia, but they have not been important for a couple of seasons, age, injury. Martin granted has been a big loss, but again has not played near his peak for at least 3 seasons. Cotchin and Riewoldt were shot last season, we have not missed them this season other than their leadership. Lynch, well who knows if he is in decline or not, hasn't been on the park for 2 seasons but is only 31 so not ancient. Technically yes a decline I guess.

Nankervis is having perhaps his best season. Vlastuin has been great. Rioli as well. Broad, our best on the weekend. Short has had a poor season but is only 28, so age not an issue. Other than that, our next senior players are Baker (26), MacIntosh and Graham (not best 22 next season, not many Richmond posters have them in the side this year much less next.)

It's hard to judge the young players because they are either too young or Hardwick wouldn't pick them. Look at Ralphsmith this year, most on here had him delisted, but could work his way into Top 5 in the B&F. Lefau looked good until injured. Often older players hold back the young ones, and that has certainly happened at Richmond.

Yes we lack some real A grade young player, but no.1 or 2 draft pick, plus possibly another early one if Baker goes. Plus a good draft hand in a very deep draft. Real quality youth can come on quickly, look at North's top 5 picks in the last year or two.

That's a fair list of seasoned players having good or good enough years, but it's not been enough to leave Richmond anywhere but last. Lynch, Taranto and Hopper have missed large chunks of footy, but even with full seasons they aren't the difference in getting the Tigers out of the bottom four. The rest of Richmond's injuries have side-lined young unestablished players that may or may not be AFL level, but have been robbed of the chance of finding out this year.

Richmond ran out last Sunday with 11 100+ gamers. It's enough of a core to be more competitive than they are. Unfortunately that core is weakening, and a handful of players being available won't change into near a top 8 side.

 

[Grrr]

And 10 under 50, 3 of them under 5, another 2 in their first season.

We may or may not have gone top 8, and possibly not next season also, but things can turn pretty quickly, especially when young players get to that 30 odd game mark. Look what the Hawks are doing with no 'stars' in their side bar Sicily.