Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Bulldog Brent]

Played with the ladder predictor - a million permutations.

Go 3-1 and we'll be fine. 4-0 even better, but I had us in 4th or 5th depending on the Blues v Hawks game.

How ironic would it be if we did finally finish top 4, in a year when we've been languishing outside the 8 for 80% of the season!

One week at a time - Dees won't be easy .... it'll be their grand final. Lose and they'll look ahead to 2025.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The Adelaide match with their strong home-ground advantage and the fact that our trip over vs. Port was also dreadful, was looking like a bit of a dodgy one. But I'm a quietly big more confident with that game now, given how quickly they threw in the towel vs. Hawks. Crows could very well be going through the motions and playing a few kids by then.

We still might lose a game somewhere but 3-1 is looking most likely. 2-2 was still the worry with the Adelaide game one of them.

 

[Golden_6]

I will say that I still have a great amount of 'trepidation' with how the next 4 weeks will unfold.

The cynic in me says we're still a big chance to drop this game to the Dees off a 5 day break and being up for so long. It will almost single handedly undo all our good work.

On the other hand, this side does feel like a very different group to those teams that have dropped these types of games previously. We have a greater margin for error with the evenness of our contributions compared to previous versions of this team. Different guys are standing up each week.

 

[dogwatch]

Dare I say it, but injuries to any of those clubs in the hunt for the finals could be a big factor that will upset many of the ladder predictor forecasts.

For instance ...

Poor old Sydney's having a shocking run with injuries at the moment and it's the only reason we scraped over the line against them yesterday in a result that few would have predicted.

Thank goodness we haven't had any injury worries all year.

 

[Next Waiting]

I will say that I still have a great amount of 'trepidation' with how the next 4 weeks will unfold.

The cynic in me says we're still a big chance to drop this game to the Dees off a 5 day break and being up for so long. It will almost single handedly undo all our good work.

On the other hand, this side does feel like a very different group to those teams that have dropped these types of games previously. We have a greater margin for error with the evenness of our contributions compared to previous versions of this team. Different guys are standing up each week.

A month ago I factored in a loss to the Dees as one of the two losses we could afford (largely due to the 5 day turnaround after Sydney). Carlton was the other and I had us beating Port, Geelong and Sydney. Got the Port and Carlton one wrong.

But our form has been so strong over the last 3 weeks. We've beaten them like an Icelander clubbing a baby seal.

So as long as the right players are managed for this game, I see no reason why we don't carry on our winning way.

 

[Bulldog rick]

Everytime someone mentions the 2023 west coast game I get shivers up my spine, develop a cold sweat and collapse into a foetal position while sucking my thumb and hope there is a nurse nearby.
Can we somehow remove this from our collective memories moving forward.

 

[hutchy31]

Everytime someone mentions the 2023 west coast game I get shivers up my spine, develop a cold sweat and collapse into a foetal position while sucking my thumb and hope there is a nurse nearby.
Can we somehow remove this from our collective memories moving forward.

I don’t think I’ll ever be confident going into a dogs game because that performance is burned into my memory. I remember sitting at the ground laughing almost maniacally because it was unfathomable what was happening and I had no appropriate response.

It’s why the assumptions that we’ll roll through the next four games 4-0 or 3-1 are pretty optimistic. I need to see it to believe it.

I read something yesterday in a power rankings piece that has lions first, dogs second and the swans third and it said “we’ll be surprised if anyone apart from these three teams wins the flag from here”. That’s madness to me.

That said, if we roll into a game against the dees as strong favourites and put them away early and professionally then maybe I’ll start to believe. But right now we’re still on the precipice of making finals, let alone running through four of them to win the flag.

 

[Chicago1]

Everytime someone mentions the 2023 west coast game I get shivers up my spine, develop a cold sweat and collapse into a foetal position while sucking my thumb and hope there is a nurse nearby.
Can we somehow remove this from our collective memories moving forward.

That was the only game I went to last year. Thankfully I chose the Freo game this year. Bit of a difference.

On SM-A135F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ScottyDogg]

I don’t think I’ll ever be confident going into a dogs game because that performance is burned into my memory. I remember sitting at the ground laughing almost maniacally because it was unfathomable what was happening and I had no appropriate response.

It’s why the assumptions that we’ll roll through the next four games 4-0 or 3-1 are pretty optimistic. I need to see it to believe it.

I read something yesterday in a power rankings piece that has lions first, dogs second and the swans third and it said “we’ll be surprised if anyone apart from these three teams wins the flag from here”. That’s madness to me.

That said, if we roll into a game against the dees as strong favourites and put them away early and professionally then maybe I’ll start to believe. But right now we’re still on the precipice of making finals, let alone running through four of them to win the flag.

I agree. We win this one and absolutely it’s on. Melbourne in some ways is the cause of all of our pain the last three years.

They scarred us deeply in that grand final. It has taken a long while and a lot of change to personal and game plan for the team to gain full confidence again.

Put it together for four quarters against Melbourne this week and I think the wound is fully healed.

 

[_Mike_]

Team is not easy to read at the moment, they’ve been playing exceptionally well over the last few weeks.

They could win every remaining game although I wouldn’t be surprised if they drop 1 out of the Melbourne, North, Adelaide, or GWS games

 

[_Mike_]

They scarred us deeply in that grand final

True

Although it’s a very different team structure now in comparison

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Looking at this week’s match ups.

It’s weird. One set of results will go a long way to locking in a finals spot for us (ie Carl beat Coll, GWS beat Haw, Freo beat Ess) but if these results are reversed, it helps us lock in a top
4 spot, so go Coll, Ess, Haw etc.!

 

[TiAn_]

Win our next two and we’re likely locked in the top 8 and potentially playing for top 4 in the last round. Huge chance in front of us now.

 

[X_box_X]

Third favourite for the flag.

 

[Angak]

Third favourite for the flag.

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If we finish 4th I would much rather play Sydney @ the SCG than Brisbane at the Gabba

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

You see it differently to most.

We're the most average team I've ever seen. The biggest teasers ever.

There is no way we're winning six of our last eight. That would rely on way too many things going our way.

1) kissed on the dick with goal kicking accuracy

2) kissed on the dick with injury

3) getting the rub of the green with umpires

All three of those have to happen. Very, very unlikely.

If we were consistently well coached and reliable, different story. But the reality is we can't be trusted so we have to rely on a few too many intangibles to be any realistic chance.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Last round b

Win our next two and we’re likely locked in the top 8 and potentially playing for top 4 in the last round. Huge chance in front of us now.

Was just thinking if that plays out a good chance last round is playing for top 4 for us, and making finals for GWS. Could be a big game!

 

[The Inbetweener]

Pies could do us a big favour today vs Blues

 

[Doggy]

Pies could do us a big favour today vs Blues

Would be nice if the plastics did too

And Sydney gets their shit together

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Completed ladder predictor…

Win our last 3 and we’re a realistic chance to finish 3rd. 4th at worst.

Lose 1 and I can’t see us finishing lower than 6th.

I’d cop a loss leading in to finals. Going in 7-0 with 3 to 4 more games to win makes me nervous.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I see us 6th after this round with 2 results going our way. Port and GWS losses. Pies over Blues would be

 

[Doggy]

I see us 6th after this round with 2 results going our way. Port and GWS losses. Pies over Blues would be

Collingwood and Sydney

Piss off hawthorn

 

[Doggy]

Completed ladder predictor…

Win our last 3 and we’re a realistic chance to finish 3rd. 4th at worst.

Lose 1 and I can’t see us finishing lower than 6th.

I’d cop a loss leading in to finals. Going in 7-0 with 3 to 4 more games to win makes me nervous.

I'd rather getting into the top 4 and having the ability to lose a final and get another chance ... or just win them all

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Better chance of Hawks beating Carlton next week than Pies this week I think

 

[Scott Tracy]

Well here we are. Congrats to the 15 of you that predicted we would be 5-1 out of that challenging 6 game stretch.

We have a massive opportunity on our hands now. onto Crows.