Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[F6Typhoon]

And hopefully assuming that we’ve had our parvo shots

 

[grassman75]

It is fine to have these threads, it is a discussion platform after all, but really football has really become a week to week proposition, moreso than anytime since it commenced.

We are starting to develop a stronger game style and more players are becoming more consistent.

Reality is whether B Smith is with us next season is becoming irrelevant to out opportunity over the next couple of seasons.

Some early losses this year whilst adjusting to the new game style and coaching structure, as well as getting games into 8 to 9 players may cost us in 2024.

If we make finals we will be dangerous, but the big issue will be improving again next season which would make us a genuine threat




On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

2024 has a bit of a 2015 smell about it

 

[grassman75]

Wait, let me get this straight...

We play more games this year at the Adelaide Oval than we do at the MCG?

Wow.

And Sydney and other interstate sides sook it up about not getting to play on the G

In 2016, Sydney played more games there than we did

 

[Libbaaaa]

And Sydney and other interstate sides sook it up about not getting to play on the G

In 2016, Sydney played more games there than we did

It is beyond silly that Collingwood play us at Marvel but play Port at the G. They should play their two contacted marvel games against interstate sides. We should never be the away team at Marvel against the Pies, Tigers, Demons etc...

 

[JohnnySteel]

Baz would be one hell of a sub if we were to make finals and he is ready to go. Imagine bringing that kind of running power on in the 4th.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Scott Tracy]

It is beyond silly that Collingwood play us at Marvel but play Port at the G. They should play their two contacted marvel games against interstate sides. We should never be the away team at Marvel against the Pies, Tigers, Demons etc...

I agree. By all means i'm not on St Kildas level and want to play home games at the G when we can't even fill Marvel.
But playing Collingwood at Marvel in Prime Time was just stupid. So many of us including myself didn't get to go cause it was sold out.

 

[dogwatch]

Baz would be one hell of a sub if we were to make finals and he is ready to go. Imagine bringing that kind of running power on in the 4th.

Hypothetical:
We make the GF. Form is good but we are not the favourites to beat Sydney (or Carlton). Baz has been training the house down. But he has also declared he wants a trade.

• Do we pick him (even as a sub)?
• Do we thus piss off somebody young who misses out (eg Sanders, Gallagher) by picking a player who's half way out the door? Thereby maybe losing two good young players instead of one?
• What message does that send to the rest of the list? Disloyalty will not be punished?
• Or do we just say to hell with the list consequences, he might be the difference between being runners-up and winning another flag?

 

[grassman75]

Bloody hell DW…this is like choosing between Albo and Dutton

 

[dogwatch]

Bloody hell DW…this is like choosing between Albo and Dutton

Except that that one's not a hypothetical!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It is beyond silly that Collingwood play us at Marvel but play Port at the G. They should play their two contacted marvel games against interstate sides. We should never be the away team at Marvel against the Pies, Tigers, Demons etc...

Doesn't work like that though with existing contracts and AFL's interests, as much as I agree with you on principle.

• AFL are specifically contracted to play a certain division of games between the two Stadiums in Melbourne
• Under the previous ownership AFL had to play a small number of blockbuster games that would get 60,000, if played at the G, at Marvel. AFL now own the stadium, but presumably want to keep a roughly similar amount of 'blockbuster' type games to profit off a stadium they own, and to justify things like the taxpayer investment in the recent refurbishment.
• Collingwood are contracted to play two games at Marvel
• Collingwood are contracted to play five designated away games at the MCG, and gain certain benefits for reserved seat holders and their team using the home change rooms despite being the designated away team
• Other teams are contracted to play a certain number of home games at the MCG, or want to play as many as possible
• You can't stack too many Marvel or MCG games in a certain week, or have two games on a single day
• This needs to fit into all other fixturing constraints with days breaks, who plays who twice etc.

Considering all this, you end up in the situation where it's highly likely that Pies host Dogs at Marvel.

Obviously not knowing all the demands and fixture and contract requirements I can't map out an alternative fixture myself, but I don't doubt all reasonable fixture possibilities lead to it being highly likely.

It's similar to our two Ballarat games. Ideally, we would want these games to be against only the four opponents of Adelaide, Port, GWS and GC - the two Perth teams don't need extra travel and Brisbane and Sydney have enough Melbourne-based supporters. We ideally want these two games played early in the season, before winter makes the weather too bad, but not our literal first home game, where signing up members or making an effort to attend the first home game is a tradition. Some fixturing elements are absolute - like we would never play a Melbourne-based team in Ballarat - but some things are desired and requested, but impossible to accommodate - the above.

As such we have not had all of our desired elements, we've played Ballarat games vs. Brisbane (not great, as we miss out on the revenue generated by Brisbane away fans in Docklands), and this year, we played our first home game in Ballarat and we play a late-season game in Ballarat. Not ideal, but impossible to make a fixture if every desired request was fulfilled.

I wouldn't say it's beyond silly that Pies host us, at least without referencing broader contracts and commercial interests (some of Pies' contracts where they get home-ground benefits as the away team at the MCG is the silly element of it all!).

 

[grassman75]

Doesn't work like that though with existing contracts and AFL's interests, as much as I agree with you on principle.

• AFL are specifically contracted to play a certain division of games between the two Stadiums in Melbourne
• Under the previous ownership AFL had to play a small number of blockbuster games that would get 60,000, if played at the G, at Marvel. AFL now own the stadium, but presumably want to keep a roughly similar amount of 'blockbuster' type games to profit off a stadium they own, and to justify things like the taxpayer investment in the recent refurbishment.
• Collingwood are contracted to play two games at Marvel
• Collingwood are contracted to play five designated away games at the MCG, and gain certain benefits for reserved seat holders and their team using the home change rooms despite being the designated away team
• Other teams are contracted to play a certain number of home games at the MCG, or want to play as many as possible
• You can't stack too many Marvel or MCG games in a certain week, or have two games on a single day
• This needs to fit into all other fixturing constraints with days breaks, who plays who twice etc.

Considering all this, you end up in the situation where it's highly likely that Pies host Dogs at Marvel.

Obviously not knowing all the demands and fixture and contract requirements I can't map out an alternative fixture myself, but I don't doubt all reasonable fixture possibilities lead to it being highly likely.

It's similar to our two Ballarat games. Ideally, we would want these games to be against only the four opponents of Adelaide, Port, GWS and GC - the two Perth teams don't need extra travel and Brisbane and Sydney have enough Melbourne-based supporters. We ideally want these two games played early in the season, before winter makes the weather too bad, but not our literal first home game, where signing up members or making an effort to attend the first home game is a tradition. Some fixturing elements are absolute - like we would never play a Melbourne-based team in Ballarat - but some things are desired and requested, but impossible to accommodate - the above.

As such we have not had all of our desired elements, we've played Ballarat games vs. Brisbane (not great, as we miss out on the revenue generated by Brisbane away fans in Docklands), and this year, we played our first home game in Ballarat and we play a late-season game in Ballarat. Not ideal, but impossible to make a fixture if every desired request was fulfilled.

I wouldn't say it's beyond silly that Pies host us, at least without referencing broader contracts and commercial interests (some of Pies' contracts where they get home-ground benefits as the away team at the MCG is the silly element of it all!).

Clearly Brisbane or GC didn’t t request to play us in Queensland….haven't played either of them up here for 2 years - surely the fixture isnt that rigid that they cant make sure every team gets at least one game in each state every year. Especially now there is gather round in Adelaide, its possible to drop some teams off playing there against Port or Adelaide in some years as their fans have already had a chance to see them play live

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Clearly Brisbane or GC didn’t t request to play us in Queensland….haven't played either of them up here for 2 years - surely the fixture isnt that rigid that they cant make sure every team gets at least one game in each state every year. Especially now there is gather round in Adelaide, its possible to drop some teams off playing there against Port or Adelaide in some years as their fans have already had a chance to see them play live

Write down all the elements that go into creating a fixture. It isn't just 6 games being played at 2pm on a Saturday anymore.

Commercial interests, 5 and 6 days breaks, interstate teams not travelling consecutively too often, blockbuster fixtures, double-up fixtures from last year's ladder positions etc. etc.

What would take a hit is the commercial side of the game - they want good teams playing Thursday and Friday nights, and they want the big 4 vic teams playing each other twice ever year - so in order to achieve what you're suggesting, we'd have to cop boring blockbuster games and less money from less big 80,000 crowd MCG games. Maybe they should, but that's the direction they've taken. AFL has locked itself in with more weird fixturing quirks because of a desire to make more and more things and absolute priority to include. Right or wrong AFL has clearly prioritised certain commercial matches above the idea of every team playing in every state.

 

[dogwatch]

Write down all the elements that go into creating a fixture. It isn't just 6 games being played at 2pm on a Saturday anymore.

Commercial interests, 5 and 6 days breaks, interstate teams not travelling consecutively too often, blockbuster fixtures, double-up fixtures from last year's ladder positions etc. etc.

What would take a hit is the commercial side of the game - they want good teams playing Thursday and Friday nights, and they want the big 4 vic teams playing each other twice ever year - so in order to achieve what you're suggesting, we'd have to cop boring blockbuster games and less money from less big 80,000 crowd MCG games. Maybe they should, but that's the direction they've taken. AFL has locked itself in with more weird fixturing quirks because of a desire to make more and more things and absolute priority to include. Right or wrong AFL has clearly prioritised certain commercial matches above the idea of every team playing in every state.

I understand all the fixture constraints and I think you've outlined them well.

But I say the AFL is wrong in prioritising commerce above fairness. These constraints are mostly self-imposed by the AFL including where they have entered into a contractual agreement with other parties such as TV networks etc. That's not really an external constraint, it's one they've willingly taken on in exchange for 30 pieces of silver.

I understand that many people will see it differently, perhaps you among them. Maybe it depends on how much the fairness costs. If it meant the TV rights were reduced by say 40% then it'd give pause for thought. But it wouldn't be anything like that. If they wanted it to be fair and make 90% of what they're making now I'm sure they could. It's just that the merchants have a stranglehold on the game.

It's time for the Bont to head on down to AFL house and overturn some tables.

And Bont went into the temple of EJ, and cast out all them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the money changers, and the seats of them that sold TV rights and hospitality boxes, And said unto them, It is written, My house shall be called the house of fair play and equal opportunity for all clubs; but ye have made it a den of thieves.

—  with apologies to Matthew 21:12–13

 

[grassman75]

Agree totally - the fixture is effectively a rort because of all the quirks and requests.

It will never be fair while still taking into account making money, only way would be to make everyone play everyone else at least once before repeating games at a minimum but even that will cost the AFL $$

 

[glenashley]

Today's HUN predictor has us winning 12 and finishing 9th, 2 points behind Collingwood.

They have us losing the next 3 games which kinda means if we pick up 1 of those as a win, will have us in the finals.

Knowing us we win 1 tough one and drop an easy one like last year

 

[adogsfan5]

Don’t think we’ll make finals but I think that we have unearthed some good finds this season. We’re far too inconsistent right now to be a contender.
I just want Jamarra to finish strong and Busslinger and Garcia to play every game from here on in.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

What we need to do play finals. Trying to simplify this crazy season GWS 7th, Dees 8th and Port 9th are one game ahead us but we have a better percentage. So, we need to win one more game than 2 of them and all teams have difficult draws (see below). I think we need to win 4 of the last 6. Three and we would need a lot to fall our way. I have us making it with 4 wins in the last 4 games but losing the next 2. We really need to beat our nemesis the cats next week to take some pressure off. Hard to see us beating the swans in Sydney.


GWS PREDICTION

Suns H W

Dees A L

Hawks H W

Lions A L

Freo H W

Dogs A L



Melbourne

Freo A L

GWS H W

Dogs A L

Port H W

Suns A L

Pies H W



Port

Tigers H W

Carlton A L

Swans H L

Dees A L

Crows H W

Freo A L

Dogs

Cats A L

Swans A L

Dees H W

Crows A W

Roos H W

GWS H W

 

[bigdog54]

What we need to do play finals. Trying to simplify this crazy season GWS 7th, Dees 8th and Port 9th are one game ahead us but we have a better percentage. So, we need to win one more game than 2 of them and all teams have difficult draws (see below). I think we need to win 4 of the last 6. Three and we would need a lot to fall our way. I have us making it with 4 wins in the last 4 games but losing the next 2. We really need to beat our nemesis the cats next week to take some pressure off. Hard to see us beating the swans in Sydney.


GWS PREDICTION

Suns H W

Dees A L

Hawks H W

Lions A L

Freo H W

Dogs A L



Melbourne

Freo A L

GWS H W

Dogs A L

Port H W

Suns A L

Pies H W



Port

Tigers H W

Carlton A L

Swans H L

Dees A L

Crows H W

Freo A L

Dogs

Cats A L

Swans A L

Dees H W

Crows A W

Roos H W

GWS H W

Good on you for having a crack. I get that there is still 6 games left but I think we have a big enough sample size to say we’re too inconsistent and not a finals side. I don’t want to be relying on other teams to fall over for us to fall in.

Interestingly, with that draw we could be play well and still only win 2 games…

 

[grassman75]

Good on you for having a crack. I get that there is still 6 games left but I think we have a big enough sample size to say we’re too inconsistent and not a finals side. I don’t want to be relying on other teams to fall over for us to fall in.

Interestingly, with that draw we could be play well and still only win 2 games…

I’m torn - while the goal is to play finals,on one hand it would be great to get these young kids a taste of finals footy on the other if we just miss out, does it fuel their hunger more

I think getting in is a better result because you never know what can happen

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I’m torn - while the goal is to play finals,on one hand it would be great to get these young kids a taste of finals footy on the other if we just miss out, does it fuel their hunger more

I think getting in is a better result because you never know what can happen

Definitely want to make it in. 4 game run is all we need and our best can beat anyone. But especially want to make it as we don't have a R1 pick!

 

[JTCWBFC]

Fk em, win them all.

 

[Scott Tracy]

Next three games are massive. Its pointless to do in depth predictions as this season is a box of chocolates. Every chance we beat Geelong and Sydney but then loose to Crows at this rate.

The thing that is for sure though is that the eight point games against Giants and Melbourne are massive. Especially considering we lost to Port. You'd think we will have to win both of those if we wanna make it.

If we can somehow pinch a win against either Geelong or Sydney that would be huge

 

[Unorth]

13 wins and good % likely gets you in.

Which would mean 4-2 from us assuming our % stays healthy.

Probably the most Bulldogs thing to happen from here would be lose the next 2, win the next 3 and set up a win or go home against GWS in the final round.

 

[Hoges64]

13 wins and good % likely gets you in.

Which would mean 4-2 from us assuming our % stays healthy.

Probably the most Bulldogs thing to happen from here would be lose the next 2, win the next 3 and set up a win or go home against GWS in the final round.

I respect your opinion but I believe the most Bulldogs thing to do would be to lose to Geelong (because it's what we do), upset Sydney in Sydney (also what we do), pull of a "Carlton-game-esque" like performance to knock off Melbourne, only to then drop the game against Adelaide with Riley Thilthorpe kicking 7.1.

Beat LOLNorf in an uninspiring display, leaving us still able to knock GWS out of 8th spot and claim it for our own, before getting our pants pulled down by Callum Brown, of all spuds, who kicks 3 final quarter goals from the pockets at Marvel.

I don't think you can get much more "Bulldogsy" than that.

 

[Dogs 13]

I respect your opinion but I believe the most Bulldogs thing to do would be to lose to Geelong (because it's what we do), upset Sydney in Sydney (also what we do), pull of a "Carlton-game-esque" like performance to knock off Melbourne, only to then drop the game against Adelaide with Riley Thilthorpe kicking 7.1.

Beat LOLNorf in an uninspiring display, leaving us still able to knock GWS out of 8th spot and claim it for our own, before getting our pants pulled down by Callum Brown, of all spuds, who kicks 3 final quarter goals from the pockets at Marvel.

I don't think you can get much more "Bulldogsy" than that.

Giants at Mars